Pound v Euro after General Election

[RedWhiteMonkey]

I know that no-one has a crystal ball but what is the general consensus on the effect of the General Election result on the strength of the Pound against the Euro?

I have 60K to move from the UK to Germany and I don't whether to do it quickly before the General Election or to take a chance on the Pound getting stronger immediately after the General Election result.

Thoughts?

[ferret50]

Decent rate now at 1.1833 this morning. Several years back I settled for 1.16ish for a purchase in Portugal.

[LimaDelta]

I asked the question in the 'financial prep' thread but it was ignored. There is of course the not insignificant factor of the French elections on the 7th July too and whether or not Le Pen has a strong showing. Personally I think a Labour win is already priced in. EUR is the weakest it has been against the GBP for a couple of years. Good for tourists, not so good for those of us earning EUR and living GBP.

[MisanoPayments]

In my opinion, a labour win at the election has already been priced in, meaning that a massive move in the rate would not be expected. You may well get bigger movement if Labour don't get in (detrimental to the GBP, perhaps?) In this sort of situ clients tend to spread their risk and move funds in chunks rather than waiting until after the election/event, to move the whole lot. More often than not though, people are usually up against completion dates as opposed to political events, dictating their moving of funds.

[RedWhiteMonkey]

Thanks for the replies. I'm pretty risk averse when its comes to these sorts of things so I'm tending towards cashing out now.

[contango]

I would think the 2 rounds of French elections on 30/06 and 07/07 are more likely to impact the GBP/Eur rate than the UK elections, we are unlikely to be surprised with anything other than a Labour government, which is priced in?

[PM3]

I'm confused by all the priced in idea . How the F does anyone ( outside of labour party HQ ) price in huge factors that the lying grifters have not even pretended to put down on published paper yet ?

Forget the Germans, would you as a complete outside ( eg USA ) "invest" in the UK currency now ? Maybe as a joke bet when pissed maybe

GBP/Euro now or later ? I would say NOW . that would be instinct and my betting would be that its either going to MUCH worse , or stay about as it is right now


I am as much as possible as far as possible out of GBP . I am UK based and Taxed . If I could , I would run for the hills

Edited by PM3 on Tuesday 25th June 15:42

[DonkeyApple]

PM3 said:

I'm confused by all the priced in idea . How the F does anyone ( outside of labour party HQ ) price in huge factors that the lying grifters have not even pretended to put down on published paper yet ?

Forget the Germans, would you as a complete outside ( eg USA ) "invest" in the UK currency now ? Maybe as a joke bet when pissed maybe

GBP/Euro now or later ? I would say NOW . that would be instinct and my betting would be that its either going to MUCH worse , or stay about as it is right now


I am as much as possible as far as possible out of GBP . I am UK based and Taxed . If I could , I would run for the hills

Edited by PM3 on Tuesday 25th June 15:42

No one does but all 'pricing in' actually is is the amalgamation of everyone's different bets. The general consensus of all the global participants is that Labour will win with a large majority, that not too much will happen in year 1 but then the U.K. is likely to start embarking on a significant capital expenditure program which will see asset taxation increase and spending at overseas infrastructure companies increase, while the size of the state will be further expanded requiring further taxation. So lots and lots of money to be made which participants will need some GBP tokens for participation.

[Seventyseven7]

Same question as op, but doing GBP/AUD for the value of £500k.

Before election, at 1.90, or wait until after? Doesn’t need to be done until September.

[Michael_B]

DonkeyApple said:

So lots and lots of money to be made which participants will need some GBP tokens for participation.

Not forgetting that they will also have to factor in changing said ever-diminishing Gordon Brown Pesos into real money at the end of it

[Simpo Two]

DonkeyApple said:

while the size of the state will be further expanded

Eventually everybody will be a civil servant working for the state. And THEN where will the money come from eh?

[AyBee]

Seventyseven7 said:

Same question as op, but doing GBP/AUD for the value of £500k.

Before election, at 1.90, or wait until after? Doesn’t need to be done until September.

Average it out between now and then is about as good as you're going to get unless you know something nobody else does.

[PM3]

Simpo Two said:

DonkeyApple said:

while the size of the state will be further expanded

Eventually everybody will be a civil servant working for the state. And THEN where will the money come from eh?

What was it a Russian said ( when asked about the collective state system ) ..... They pretend to pay us , and we pretend to work ....

[OoopsVoss]

DonkeyApple said:

No one does but all 'pricing in' actually is is the amalgamation of everyone's different bets. The general consensus of all the global participants is that Labour will win with a large majority, that not too much will happen in year 1 but then the U.K. is likely to start embarking on a significant capital expenditure program which will see asset taxation increase and spending at overseas infrastructure companies increase, while the size of the state will be further expanded requiring further taxation. So lots and lots of money to be made which participants will need some GBP tokens for participation.

The last 3 macro presentations I've attended by big banks have Labour winning the election and this being a good thing for GBP. As long as they win a sizable / working majority. It'll be closer than the polls predict, but a decent majority will be enough to satiate the market (a small majority will be a problem). A large majority will be bad for democracy here, but not sure it will affect GBP too much. The Ftench elections probably have a bigger impact, but there isn't a likely outcome there that is positive for the (or France). France now being in the naughty excessive deficit book and having almost no political way out IS a problem, whether anyone wants to talk about it is another story.

Here, both Starmer and Reeves are talking about high growth levels (achievable is arguable), but shows a departure in thinking. Labour exuberance has been curtailed by the Trussterf@@k, they have absolutely no alternative but to look at market reaction to be policy something Truss and KamiKwazi should have known. If there is one good thing about the Truss legacy, it's to smarten up the labour leadership. 2.5% growth is a big number, but tells you who is really calling the shots (and it's not the electorate or lefties).

[BobToc]

Struggle to see any meaningful change to GBP in the immediate aftermath, unless Labour have a vastly reduced majority than expected (say, sub 50). Longer term it’ll depend on what they decide to do, which I’d suggest will bear only a passing resemblance to the manifesto.

[rev-erend]

The market knows labour is going to win. If it thought they were going to go crazy then the rate would already be in free fall.

[Simpo Two]

Perhaps it shows how little the world cares about who runs the UK.

[OoopsVoss]

Simpo Two said:

Perhaps it shows how little the world cares about who runs the UK.

The "world"? Maybe needs qualification.

No way is the "world" made up of single interest.

Or as simple as the people in the politics thread (comedy that they are). The markets care far less about Left or right than they do stable and readable government.

It's stable, not who.

[Simpo Two]

OoopsVoss said:

The markets care far less about Left or right than they do stable and readable government.

It's stable, not who.

Well I guess 'predictable decline' is predictable...!

[PM3]

Supervised neglect.