Trade of the Century
Discussion
Was at a dinner last night where the discussion turned to 'what was the trade of the 20th century ?', which I thought was an interesting lazy Sunday morning thread.
We established rules of:
- you could buy and sell any time 1 Jan 1901 to 31 Dec 1999
- long trades only
- highest return in local currency after inflation (to prevent all those Weimar loaves of bread)
We had one guy calling it for Microsoft, but the consensus was real estate, in particular Manhattan, San Francisco and Japan. My vote was buy Tokyo July 1945 sell Jan 1990.
We established rules of:
- you could buy and sell any time 1 Jan 1901 to 31 Dec 1999
- long trades only
- highest return in local currency after inflation (to prevent all those Weimar loaves of bread)
We had one guy calling it for Microsoft, but the consensus was real estate, in particular Manhattan, San Francisco and Japan. My vote was buy Tokyo July 1945 sell Jan 1990.
sunbeam alpine said:
Didn't one of the founders of Google sell out very early on for peanuts (thought it was about $15000)?
Whoever bought those shares should have been a happy bunny?
P.S. Could have been Apple - I wasn't really listening (probably browsing PH at the same time).
It was Apple.Whoever bought those shares should have been a happy bunny?
P.S. Could have been Apple - I wasn't really listening (probably browsing PH at the same time).
raptor600 said:
It was Apple.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Wayne"Had he kept his 10% stock it would have been worth over 58 billion dollars in August 2012"
Gareth79 said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ronald_Wayne
"Had he kept his 10% stock it would have been worth over 58 billion dollars in August 2012"
Easy to say with hindsight though "Had he kept his 10% stock it would have been worth over 58 billion dollars in August 2012"
He doesn't regret selling when he did though and believed he good a good price at the time (which may very well be true).
Not that my fellow diners are competitive or anything, but Microsoft man has been hard at his BBg this morning and claims adjusted IPO was $0.07, equal to 11c in 1999 dollars, and peak was $44.30 in Dec 99 so a CAGR of about 53.5%.
That's higher than I thought, and I may be forced to break out my back copies of 'Tokyo Property Roundup' to see how that looks.
That's higher than I thought, and I may be forced to break out my back copies of 'Tokyo Property Roundup' to see how that looks.
One that sticks in my mind as I worked for the business is the Body Shop. Anita Roddick got turned down by the banks for a loan to open more shops around 1978, so approached a friend - Ian McGlynn who owned a local MoT garage for £4000 in return for 50% of the company.
That turned into £140m. Not bad for a punt.
That turned into £140m. Not bad for a punt.
Newc said:
Not that my fellow diners are competitive or anything, but Microsoft man has been hard at his BBg this morning and claims adjusted IPO was $0.07, equal to 11c in 1999 dollars, and peak was $44.30 in Dec 99 so a CAGR of about 53.5%.
Congratulations - you've managed to produce a sentence in which I recognise every word (although none of the abbreviations) -but am completely unable to understand!
Sorry, that was a tad jargony wasn't it. To translate:
'One of my dining companions, while professing a general air of 'yeah yeah whatever', as soon as he had finished his morning meetings on Monday went straight to his Bloomberg screen and looked up Microsoft's share price history.
He says that the initial share price in 1986 was equivalent to 7c (because there have been lots of share splits so one share then is equivalent to hundreds of shares today). 7c in 1986 after inflation was worth about 11c in 1999, when the share price was $44.30. So holding a Microsoft share from 1986 to 1999 represented an initial investment of 11c for a return of $44, or about 53% per annum'.
We had also restricted it to publicly available investments, so there was no 'being Steve Jobs' silent partner, or financing the Body Shop startup' option.
Standard Oil is an interesting suggestion though.
I can't find any sensible research on wartime Tokyo land, other than in 1945 you were essentially buying ruined bomb sites from a quasi-feudal society pushed back to equivalent levels to mid 19th century Europe.
In 1989 peak prices were 30m yen per sq metre. Even so I suspect that is less than 20% p.a.
'One of my dining companions, while professing a general air of 'yeah yeah whatever', as soon as he had finished his morning meetings on Monday went straight to his Bloomberg screen and looked up Microsoft's share price history.
He says that the initial share price in 1986 was equivalent to 7c (because there have been lots of share splits so one share then is equivalent to hundreds of shares today). 7c in 1986 after inflation was worth about 11c in 1999, when the share price was $44.30. So holding a Microsoft share from 1986 to 1999 represented an initial investment of 11c for a return of $44, or about 53% per annum'.
We had also restricted it to publicly available investments, so there was no 'being Steve Jobs' silent partner, or financing the Body Shop startup' option.
Standard Oil is an interesting suggestion though.
I can't find any sensible research on wartime Tokyo land, other than in 1945 you were essentially buying ruined bomb sites from a quasi-feudal society pushed back to equivalent levels to mid 19th century Europe.
In 1989 peak prices were 30m yen per sq metre. Even so I suspect that is less than 20% p.a.
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