Euro 'will be dead in five years'

[simonrockman]

Article in the Telegraph

[fadeaway]

The Telegraph said:

The euro will have broken up before the end of this Parliamentary term, according to the bulk of economists taking part...

... Of the 25 leading City economists who took part in the Telegraph survey, 12 predicted that the euro would not survive in its current form this Parliamentary term

This isn't an election you know, 12 out of 25 is in no way "the bulk"! Who let this idiot write for the telegraph, let alone in the economics section!!!

[Mutley]

fadeaway said:

The Telegraph said:

The euro will have broken up before the end of this Parliamentary term, according to the bulk of economists taking part...

... Of the 25 leading City economists who took part in the Telegraph survey, 12 predicted that the euro would not survive in its current form this Parliamentary term

This isn't an election you know, 12 out of 25 is in no way "the bulk"! Who let this idiot write for the telegraph, let alone in the economics section!!!

I make that just under 50%, so certainly the bulk when you take in the rest of the quote:

"Of the 25 leading City economists who took part in the Telegraph survey, 12 predicted that the euro would not survive in its current form this Parliamentary term, compared with eight who suspected it would. Five declared themselves undecided.

Therefore the bulk of respondents have estimated that the Euro won't last in it's current form.

[Somewhatfoolish]

"it is an open question whether Greece will experience some form of revolution or coup – I'd put the likelihood of that over the next five years as around one in four."

I'd put the likelihood of that guy being pissed as about 1 in 2

[eharding]

Somewhatfoolish said:

"it is an open question whether Greece will experience some form of revolution or coup – I'd put the likelihood of that over the next five years as around one in four."

I'd put the likelihood of that guy being pissed as about 1 in 2

Well, given that the last coups were in 1967 and 1974, you could argue that they're well overdue another one.

[CDP]

eharding said:

Somewhatfoolish said:

"it is an open question whether Greece will experience some form of revolution or coup – I'd put the likelihood of that over the next five years as around one in four."

I'd put the likelihood of that guy being pissed as about 1 in 2

Well, given that the last coups were in 1967 and 1974, you could argue that they're well overdue another one.

I think a default is more likely. If they have to go through the massive austerity regime necessary to pay back their debts they probably will have a revolution; followed by a default anyway.

I think the sooner the Germans get out of the Euro the better for everybody. Especially them.

The ordered dismantling of the Euro is probably the best way to avoid the return of dictatorships emerging in Europe.

Unfortunately the ruling "Elite" will see it necessary to keep the Euro at any price; until they realise exactly how high that price could be.

[Fittster]

When will the pound be dead? Fiat currencies never last.

With a bit of googling:

"At present there are 176 currencies in circulation in the world.

The median age for all existing currencies in circulation is only 39 years"

[s2art]

Fittster said:

When will the pound be dead? Fiat currencies never last.

With a bit of googling:

"At present there are 176 currencies in circulation in the world.

The median age for all existing currencies in circulation is only 39 years"

How long has the pound existed?

[eharding]

Fittster said:

"The median age for all existing currencies in circulation is only 39 years"

Thats what happens when you take a number of old-world European currencies with collectively thousands of years of history behind them, and flush them down the Euro.

[Fittster]

s2art said:

Fittster said:

When will the pound be dead? Fiat currencies never last.

With a bit of googling:

"At present there are 176 currencies in circulation in the world.

The median age for all existing currencies in circulation is only 39 years"

How long has the pound existed?

In what form, is the pound on the gold standard the same pound we have today?

The Bank of England was formed in 1694 and started issuing pounds but I'd argue that the money we have today goes back to 1931 when we came off the gold standard.

[Fittster]

eharding said:

Fittster said:

"The median age for all existing currencies in circulation is only 39 years"

Thats what happens when you take a number of old-world European currencies with collectively thousands of years of history behind them, and flush them down the Euro.

Which currency in the Euro zone went back 100s of years?

[Spiritual_Beggar]

s2art said:

Fittster said:

When will the pound be dead? Fiat currencies never last.

With a bit of googling:

"At present there are 176 currencies in circulation in the world.

The median age for all existing currencies in circulation is only 39 years"

How long has the pound existed?

It's the oldest still in use.

And that's because it is the best


Interesting little snippet from the Wiki article on the Pound;

"James Callaghan came to power in 1976. He was immediately told the economy was facing huge problems, according to documents released in 2006 by the National Archives.[17] Financial markets were losing confidence in sterling. The UK treasury could not balance its books, while Labour's strategy emphasised high public spending. Callaghan was told there were three possible outcomes: a disastrous free fall in Sterling, an internationally unacceptable siege economy or a deal with key allies to prop up the pound while painful economic reforms were put in place"


So we can all now see that a Leopard never changes it's spots! Which of thee three outcomes do you reckon we're in for this time?

[s2art]

Fittster said:

s2art said:

Fittster said:

When will the pound be dead? Fiat currencies never last.

With a bit of googling:

"At present there are 176 currencies in circulation in the world.

The median age for all existing currencies in circulation is only 39 years"

How long has the pound existed?

In what form, is the pound on the gold standard the same pound we have today?

The Bank of England was formed in 1694 and started issuing pounds but I'd argue that the money we have today goes back to 1931 when we came off the gold standard.

Dont buy that argument. There was continuity, people who had pounds from before '31 still used them. That was just a devaluation.

[Spiritual_Beggar]

Fittster said:

eharding said:

Fittster said:

"The median age for all existing currencies in circulation is only 39 years"

Thats what happens when you take a number of old-world European currencies with collectively thousands of years of history behind them, and flush them down the Euro.

Which currency in the Euro zone went back 100s of years?

The 'Franc' was a few hundred years old I believe. Not much else was arround for a huge amount of timee though. not in comparison to teh Franc & Pound

[Fittster]

s2art said:

Fittster said:

s2art said:

Fittster said:

When will the pound be dead? Fiat currencies never last.

With a bit of googling:

"At present there are 176 currencies in circulation in the world.

The median age for all existing currencies in circulation is only 39 years"

How long has the pound existed?

In what form, is the pound on the gold standard the same pound we have today?

The Bank of England was formed in 1694 and started issuing pounds but I'd argue that the money we have today goes back to 1931 when we came off the gold standard.

Dont buy that argument. There was continuity, people who had pounds from before '31 still used them. That was just a devaluation.

They couldn't exchange them for a lump of yellow metal, free from government interference could they. That's the fundamental difference, purchasing power is hugely eroded.

“I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of …”

[RobDickinson]

s2art said:

Fittster said:

s2art said:

Fittster said:

When will the pound be dead? Fiat currencies never last.

With a bit of googling:

"At present there are 176 currencies in circulation in the world.

The median age for all existing currencies in circulation is only 39 years"

How long has the pound existed?

In what form, is the pound on the gold standard the same pound we have today?

The Bank of England was formed in 1694 and started issuing pounds but I'd argue that the money we have today goes back to 1931 when we came off the gold standard.

Dont buy that argument. There was continuity, people who had pounds from before '31 still used them. That was just a devaluation.

on that front then I guess its 1971 when it changed to metric....

[Silver993tt]

It's always funny to see predictions of the demise of a currency such as the Euro when there's been a 2-3% change in it's value against £. The exchange rate has been around £/1.15 for months and now it's £1.20/£. The £ is still 20% down on the Euro compared to 2-3 years ago, so even if it went back to that level it would be nothing new.

One of the ideas behind the Euro was to bolster other Eurozone countries when they has some trouble with their economies. That's what's happening right now. Better to have friends to help you out rather than being on your own because trouble will always strike at some point.

[JohnnyJones]

Weren't Francs the remains of the last attempt at a single currency? What happened there?

[BOR]

I'm flummoxed, quite frankly.

There is resentment in Germany, to bailing out what are seen as profligate countries, when Germany itself, has problems.

But a super-strong German currency would kill our export driven ecomomy. I think we could survive the current "fracas", but I'm nervous about survival under a Deutschemark.

I feel that the german electorate want to return to the Mark,so it could be easy meat for any party who campaign on exiting the €.

Edited by BOR on Tuesday 8th June 07:43

[Dr Jekyll]

Silver993tt said:

It's always funny to see predictions of the demise of a currency such as the Euro when there's been a 2-3% change in it's value against £. The exchange rate has been around £/1.15 for months and now it's £1.20/£. The £ is still 20% down on the Euro compared to 2-3 years ago, so even if it went back to that level it would be nothing new.

One of the ideas behind the Euro was to bolster other Eurozone countries when they has some trouble with their economies. That's what's happening right now. Better to have friends to help you out rather than being on your own because trouble will always strike at some point.

But the point is that without the Euro Greece might not be in so much trouble, because they could devalue relative to their neighbours. You can get 'help' without having the same currency, see the IMF.

If we had the Euro, we would effectively have a currency 20% overvalued by now.