Recession - is there light at the end of the tunnel?
Poll: Recession - is there light at the end of the tunnel?
Total Members Polled: 160
Discussion
Not just the banks...trade insurers are having a merry old time cancelling limits.
One company in our sector has already gone to the wall because cover was removed from the majority of its debtors book, thereby preventing them from using their factoring facilities.
Just yesterday I had 20 limits with a total of £1.15m cancelled. This equates to a possible insured turnover of £4.6m a year.
This is just because the insurers are running scared...next thing will be customers filing s
te accounts due to the downturn and insurers using them as an excuse to refuse cover.
Nope, it's not going to get better yet..manufacturing is still on the greasy slope.
Christ..do I not like being a Credit Manager just at the moment.
One company in our sector has already gone to the wall because cover was removed from the majority of its debtors book, thereby preventing them from using their factoring facilities.
Just yesterday I had 20 limits with a total of £1.15m cancelled. This equates to a possible insured turnover of £4.6m a year.
This is just because the insurers are running scared...next thing will be customers filing s
te accounts due to the downturn and insurers using them as an excuse to refuse cover.Nope, it's not going to get better yet..manufacturing is still on the greasy slope.
Christ..do I not like being a Credit Manager just at the moment.
It does depend which sector of the economy you are in, economically it looks like things are turning, but if you work at LDV I guess you would disagree and there will be more closures and lending is so tight now.
If you are a pensioner with savings you would probably say it's not getting better either as savings rates aren't likely to rise any time soon.
If you work in finance, which was the first to get hit, then maybe things are picking up, but retail and manufacturing will lag the finance companies path by a year to 18 months, so more pain to come for those areas I would think
If you are a pensioner with savings you would probably say it's not getting better either as savings rates aren't likely to rise any time soon.
If you work in finance, which was the first to get hit, then maybe things are picking up, but retail and manufacturing will lag the finance companies path by a year to 18 months, so more pain to come for those areas I would think
JRM said:
If you work in finance, which was the first to get hit, then maybe things are picking up, but retail and manufacturing will lag the finance companies path by a year to 18 months, so more pain to come for those areas I would think
retail construction is dire - 9% retraction from the beginning of the year to date4 times over Govt predictions
If you draw parallels with either Japan or the 1929 crash things have only just started. Maybe this time it's different but we will see.
It's my prediction that the future is stagflation.
Debt must be paid and it will done through inflation and higher taxes, neither of which is good for growth.
It's my prediction that the future is stagflation.
Debt must be paid and it will done through inflation and higher taxes, neither of which is good for growth.
Edited by Fittster on Wednesday 17th June 13:48
ian_uk1975 said:
We're over the worst, IMO.
1. Mortgage lending is up
2. House prices are looking a little more stable
3. The FTSE is looking better
4. The GBP is stronger against both the USD and the Euro
5. The banking crisis has stabilised
Unemployment up by over 200k in the last 3 months....1. Mortgage lending is up
2. House prices are looking a little more stable
3. The FTSE is looking better
4. The GBP is stronger against both the USD and the Euro
5. The banking crisis has stabilised
Yes, we are over the worst of it because:-
We have not started mining anything.
We have not started growing anything.
We have not started fishing anything.
We are not processing very much raw materials.
We are not really mucking about being agents more than usual.
The stronger pound is not exactly doing anything to rejuvinate exports.
House prices MAY be up, but there are several factors which could contribute to this, data not being available to tell who is buying....whether savers, foreigners, or first timers.... Are the funky finance deals actually fudging the real figures? There is no evidence for this.
So, I assume that since our country rests on services which are by and large do-able elsewhere and the huge public sector, which is parasitic on the first, I'd say we were not only being daft saying "We are out of the woods", we are actually very vunerable and close to being in the st.
If we just ignore it and carry on borrowing money.... it will all wash over.
Of course it isn't over, you mongs.
We have not started mining anything.
We have not started growing anything.
We have not started fishing anything.
We are not processing very much raw materials.
We are not really mucking about being agents more than usual.
The stronger pound is not exactly doing anything to rejuvinate exports.
House prices MAY be up, but there are several factors which could contribute to this, data not being available to tell who is buying....whether savers, foreigners, or first timers.... Are the funky finance deals actually fudging the real figures? There is no evidence for this.
So, I assume that since our country rests on services which are by and large do-able elsewhere and the huge public sector, which is parasitic on the first, I'd say we were not only being daft saying "We are out of the woods", we are actually very vunerable and close to being in the s
t.If we just ignore it and carry on borrowing money.... it will all wash over.
Of course it isn't over, you mongs.
Not if you're looking for a job it's not...Unemployment is a lagging indicator and it's going to get a bit worse yet but just remember by the time that unemployment stabilises, the economy will already have turned the corner.
On that basis, however, in terms of asset values I think we have reached a bottom (famous last words
). Property in some areas still has some way to fall but anything quality in the right area will have stabilised already. Dare I say it, if the opportunists among you were looking to pick up assets as cheap as possible (be they property, supercars, equities and fixed income securities blah blah, you've already missed the boat.
If history has taught us anything, it is that history repeats itself. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
The UK is a service based economy with heavy dependence on financial services and it's going to stay that way. Nothing's going to change. Note even after all this. Big bonuses will be paid offshore and you won't hear about it and the City will continue to propel the entire UK. No need to mine, no need to produce, no need to "create" anything. Why bother? The low-labour-cost economies in the East will only be better/cheaper than us anyway.
The simple fact of the matter is that despite the vastness of UK and US debt, there is an even more massive surplus of liquidity in China and the Far East which can fund our "live-beyond-our means" lifestyles.
The game of musical chairs is going to go on for a few decades yet.
The Recession of 2007-2009 - the biggest economic hype in history.
I just hope those chaps who have suffered at it's hands will be back soon and unemployment dies quickly and does NOT "lag" for too long.
On that basis, however, in terms of asset values I think we have reached a bottom (famous last words
). Property in some areas still has some way to fall but anything quality in the right area will have stabilised already. Dare I say it, if the opportunists among you were looking to pick up assets as cheap as possible (be they property, supercars, equities and fixed income securities blah blah, you've already missed the boat.If history has taught us anything, it is that history repeats itself. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
The UK is a service based economy with heavy dependence on financial services and it's going to stay that way. Nothing's going to change. Note even after all this. Big bonuses will be paid offshore and you won't hear about it and the City will continue to propel the entire UK. No need to mine, no need to produce, no need to "create" anything. Why bother? The low-labour-cost economies in the East will only be better/cheaper than us anyway.
The simple fact of the matter is that despite the vastness of UK and US debt, there is an even more massive surplus of liquidity in China and the Far East which can fund our "live-beyond-our means" lifestyles.
The game of musical chairs is going to go on for a few decades yet.
The Recession of 2007-2009 - the biggest economic hype in history.
I just hope those chaps who have suffered at it's hands will be back soon and unemployment dies quickly and does NOT "lag" for too long.
Edited by Murcielago_Boy on Wednesday 17th June 16:55
Murcielago_Boy said:
Not if you're looking for a job it's not...Unemployment is a lagging indicator and it's going to get a bit worse yet but just remember by the time that unemployment stabilises, the economy will already have turned the corner.
On that basis, however, in terms of asset values I think we have reached a bottom (famous last words ). Property in some areas still has some way to fall but anything quality in the right area will have stabilised already. Dare I say it, if the opportunists among you were looking to pick up assets as cheap as possible (be they property, supercars, equities and fixed income securities blah blah, you've already missed the boat.
If history has taught us anything, it is that history repeats itself. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
The UK is a service based economy with heavy dependence on financial services and it's going to stay that way. Nothing's going to change. Note even after all this. Big bonuses will be paid offshore and you won't hear about it and the City will continue to propel the entire UK. No need to mine, no need to produce, no need to "create" anything. Why bother? The low-labour-cost economies in the East will only be better/cheaper than us anyway.
The simple fact of the matter is that despite the vastness of UK and US debt, there is an even more massive surplus of liquidity in China and the Far East which can fund our "live-beyond-our means" lifestyles.
The game of musical chairs is going to go on for a few decades yet.
The Recession of 2007-2009 - the biggest economic hype in history.
I just hope those chaps who have suffered at it's hands will be back soon and unemployment dies quickly and does NOT "lag" for too long.
I am bookmarking this prediction, as I did with GBPEUR and mortgage lending.On that basis, however, in terms of asset values I think we have reached a bottom (famous last words
). Property in some areas still has some way to fall but anything quality in the right area will have stabilised already. Dare I say it, if the opportunists among you were looking to pick up assets as cheap as possible (be they property, supercars, equities and fixed income securities blah blah, you've already missed the boat.If history has taught us anything, it is that history repeats itself. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
The UK is a service based economy with heavy dependence on financial services and it's going to stay that way. Nothing's going to change. Note even after all this. Big bonuses will be paid offshore and you won't hear about it and the City will continue to propel the entire UK. No need to mine, no need to produce, no need to "create" anything. Why bother? The low-labour-cost economies in the East will only be better/cheaper than us anyway.
The simple fact of the matter is that despite the vastness of UK and US debt, there is an even more massive surplus of liquidity in China and the Far East which can fund our "live-beyond-our means" lifestyles.
The game of musical chairs is going to go on for a few decades yet.
The Recession of 2007-2009 - the biggest economic hype in history.
I just hope those chaps who have suffered at it's hands will be back soon and unemployment dies quickly and does NOT "lag" for too long.
Edited by Murcielago_Boy on Wednesday 17th June 16:55
Can someone please respond to my point?
What are we doing to actually sort the country/debt out, rather than more borrowing.
I hear all the bearish comments, but the reality is that we were doing fk all before, apart from borrowing and so what the fk are we doing now in order to actually see an upturn.
Are you implying this is an illusion which has been talked up?
Are we borrowing even more again?
Is the upturn an illusion due to reference points moving downward relatively?
I hear the "it's picked up again comments", but if it has, please explain how it is anything else than more debt?
BTW, I have a pretty good working knowledge of economics.....not awesome, but enough to understand a reply. Fire away....
What are we doing to actually sort the country/debt out, rather than more borrowing.
I hear all the bearish comments, but the reality is that we were doing f
k all before, apart from borrowing and so what the fk are we doing now in order to actually see an upturn.Are you implying this is an illusion which has been talked up?
Are we borrowing even more again?
Is the upturn an illusion due to reference points moving downward relatively?
I hear the "it's picked up again comments", but if it has, please explain how it is anything else than more debt?
BTW, I have a pretty good working knowledge of economics.....not awesome, but enough to understand a reply. Fire away....
EDLT said:
Mr POD said:
I was made redundant last week. 2 inteviews lined up so far based on 149 CV's send or emailed.
Having 149 jobs to apply for can't be bad.There are record numbers of teachers having undertaken training this year. Private sector cutbacks and research funding drying up.
Out of the 8 students in my school, one has a job (and she is the blonde one with big tits, lol) and the other 7 are going to be digging holes on a building site next year.
The "usual" thing is people putting their notice in before half term and the big splurge of advertised jobs coming up now, or a week ago or so.
There are about 7 secondary jobs in the whole region. It's nuts.
This is a very noticable dry up/change from normal.
Of course, by September, we will be seeing the green shoots everywhere and it will be business as usual....if it isn't allready.
Edited by LoveMachine on Thursday 18th June 07:22
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