Can a country that talked itself into recession...
Discussion
....talk itself out of one?
There are trickles and murmerings from some corners that things may be looking up (unless youre a bank teller for C&G). 10 months ago, many people felt that to a large extent, between economic forcasters and the media, the country talked itself into not spending and worsened the problems. Probably more especially on the high street.
Is it feasible then with a groundswell of positive indicators and commentary, to talk our way out of it?
There are trickles and murmerings from some corners that things may be looking up (unless youre a bank teller for C&G). 10 months ago, many people felt that to a large extent, between economic forcasters and the media, the country talked itself into not spending and worsened the problems. Probably more especially on the high street.
Is it feasible then with a groundswell of positive indicators and commentary, to talk our way out of it?
308mate said:
....talk itself out of one?
There are trickles and murmerings from some corners that things may be looking up (unless youre a bank teller for C&G). 10 months ago, many people felt that to a large extent, between economic forcasters and the media, the country talked itself into not spending and worsened the problems. Probably more especially on the high street.
Is it feasible then with a groundswell of positive indicators and commentary, to talk our way out of it?
Yes. With a firm ticking off, the debt will run away to a dark corner, never to be seen from again.There are trickles and murmerings from some corners that things may be looking up (unless youre a bank teller for C&G). 10 months ago, many people felt that to a large extent, between economic forcasters and the media, the country talked itself into not spending and worsened the problems. Probably more especially on the high street.
Is it feasible then with a groundswell of positive indicators and commentary, to talk our way out of it?
NoelWatson said:
308mate said:
....talk itself out of one?
There are trickles and murmerings from some corners that things may be looking up (unless youre a bank teller for C&G). 10 months ago, many people felt that to a large extent, between economic forcasters and the media, the country talked itself into not spending and worsened the problems. Probably more especially on the high street.
Is it feasible then with a groundswell of positive indicators and commentary, to talk our way out of it?
Yes. With a firm ticking off, the debt will run away to a dark corner, never to be seen from again.There are trickles and murmerings from some corners that things may be looking up (unless youre a bank teller for C&G). 10 months ago, many people felt that to a large extent, between economic forcasters and the media, the country talked itself into not spending and worsened the problems. Probably more especially on the high street.
Is it feasible then with a groundswell of positive indicators and commentary, to talk our way out of it?
So, can we talk ourselves out of the fact that we have loads of debt which can't be met, businesses which aren't getting business and retail not retailing and taxes not being raised enough, people still not losing their jobs..........
I have heard some naive head-in-the-sand s
t before.....mostly on "Are house prices still falling?" thread, but to deny this one is ridiculous.
People are still being laid off around here. At work (teaching) there are record numbers of students with a fair few coming out of the private sector, academia (a lot of funding has dried up) and jobs are at a minimum (people hanging around). On the local media, people are being fired wholesale.
I personally can't see any green shoots. No green shoots of lending driven spending..... the earning driven spending has to be down as it is obvious everywhere that we are not booming. Clearly sentiment has an element of influence, but really, it's down to unsustainable finance and we either refacilitate that (lend us a tenner, China) or we recess/inflate back to an empirically more sustainable level.....
I hear enough bullst on the rotbox and the latest "numbers are up" news reminds me of the crap we do for ofsted.
I have heard some naive head-in-the-sand s
t before.....mostly on "Are house prices still falling?" thread, but to deny this one is ridiculous.People are still being laid off around here. At work (teaching) there are record numbers of students with a fair few coming out of the private sector, academia (a lot of funding has dried up) and jobs are at a minimum (people hanging around). On the local media, people are being fired wholesale.
I personally can't see any green shoots. No green shoots of lending driven spending..... the earning driven spending has to be down as it is obvious everywhere that we are not booming. Clearly sentiment has an element of influence, but really, it's down to unsustainable finance and we either refacilitate that (lend us a tenner, China) or we recess/inflate back to an empirically more sustainable level.....
I hear enough bulls
t on the rotbox and the latest "numbers are up" news reminds me of the crap we do for ofsted. Can we talk ourselves into recession, ofcourse we can especially with the help of the interweb to spread the word evermore quickly.
Hopefully it can work in reverse and help get things back on track eventually, folk seem to like nothing more than bad news and there is plenty to go around at the minute. There's only one way forward and thats to get on with it and that's what we all will do eventually.
Hopefully it can work in reverse and help get things back on track eventually, folk seem to like nothing more than bad news and there is plenty to go around at the minute. There's only one way forward and thats to get on with it and that's what we all will do eventually.
IMO we didn't so much talk ourselves into a recession as talk ourselves into believing that low interest rates and low inflation would last forever, which led to a lot of people running their finances with little or no margin for error - fuel price rises, inflation and coming off low-price fixed-rate mortgages hurt enough people to cause problems, especially once the banks started to realise how untenable some of the loans they'd made were.
I think the BoE managed to stave off a repossession spiral by dropping the interest rates on the floor. While consumer confidence is hardly healthy, I think it's a lot better than it would have been with 7%+ SVR mortgages and housing auctions all over the shop.
The problem is that pain is still stored in if you assume those interest rates have to go back up at some point. If we're lucky I guess the BoE can time it so that the interest rate rising will be a case of softening the recovery rather than sharpening the downturn.
The other worry is oil. If the world starts getting back on track, high oil prices are going to hurt us a hell of a lot more at $1.60/£ than they did at $2/£.
That said I'm not so sure we're doomed (and other popular tabloidisms), just that any recovery is going to be slow, cautious and somewhat fragile.
I think the BoE managed to stave off a repossession spiral by dropping the interest rates on the floor. While consumer confidence is hardly healthy, I think it's a lot better than it would have been with 7%+ SVR mortgages and housing auctions all over the shop.
The problem is that pain is still stored in if you assume those interest rates have to go back up at some point. If we're lucky I guess the BoE can time it so that the interest rate rising will be a case of softening the recovery rather than sharpening the downturn.
The other worry is oil. If the world starts getting back on track, high oil prices are going to hurt us a hell of a lot more at $1.60/£ than they did at $2/£.
That said I'm not so sure we're doomed (and other popular tabloidisms), just that any recovery is going to be slow, cautious and somewhat fragile.
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