UKIP and a general election.

[colonel c]

Just watching the European election results come in and I'm wondering to what extent UKIP might upset the Tory apple cart in the next general election?

Could they split the right wing vote or even take seats away from CMD.
Would this leave the way for some sort of hung parliament?

[Northern Munkee]

colonel c said:

Just watching the European election results come in and I'm wondering to what extent UKIP might upset the Tory apple cart in the next general election?

Could they split the right wing vote or even take seats away from CMD.
Would this leave the way for some sort of hung parliament?

Not sure. But it makes for interesting politics.

[elster]

I believe Nigel Farage said that if the conservatives forced a referndum on the EU and Lisbon treaty they would not contend them.

[Jasandjules]

elster said:

I believe Nigel Farage said that if the conservatives forced a referndum on the EU and Lisbon treaty they would not contend them.

That is interesting.

I heard him say this morning that there needs to be a GE based on the Euro results now..

[thinfourth2]

Jasandjules said:

elster said:

I believe Nigel Farage said that if the conservatives forced a referndum on the EU and Lisbon treaty they would not contend them.

That is interesting.

I heard him say this morning that there needs to be a GE based on the Euro results now..

Unless you are a labour MP where it is the worst thing that could happen

And who decides

Oh yeah Labour

Forget it its not going to happen

[Don]

thinfourth2 said:

Jasandjules said:

elster said:

I believe Nigel Farage said that if the conservatives forced a referndum on the EU and Lisbon treaty they would not contend them.

That is interesting.

I heard him say this morning that there needs to be a GE based on the Euro results now..

Unless you are a labour MP where it is the worst thing that could happen

And who decides

Oh yeah Labour

Forget it its not going to happen

Yep. Doesn't matter how much the population want a General Election it's Labour that get to decide when we have one and since they are going to lose horribly they ain't going to call it until the last possible moment.

Labour's hope is that the economy picks back up in the year to come.

The strategy could backfire though. I think this coming year could be very bad indeed with unemployment rising through the first half at least. I also think that the General Public could very well feel cheated of a General Election and their vote when it finally comes could well reflect that.

Looking at the European results I don't feel that the Tories can be remotely complacent. Sure they came top but with just 28%. It's not enough. Not enough to absolutely guarantee the results they want. They've got a year to convince UKIP voters that they're as euro-skeptic as they are, IMO.

[Jasandjules]

thinfourth2 said:

Forget it its not going to happen

I know, CMD has been asking for weeks.

But, they have to start questioning when they are going to accept the will of the people (oh right, silly me!) and get out. If they leave it too long the public may well punish them more for hanging on for dear life (how I hope so).

Plus, can they really manage another few months without stabbing El Browno in the back? I doubt it. That infighting will then cause them even more problems come GE time.

[Bing o]

Don said:

Looking at the European results I don't feel that the Tories can be remotely complacent. Sure they came top but with just 28%. It's not enough. Not enough to absolutely guarantee the results they want. They've got a year to convince UKIP voters that they're as euro-skeptic as they are, IMO.

The way I see it is that at the Euro's you vote for anyone who wants to get you out of Europe, but at a GE, you vote for the Conservatives - that's always been my intention anyway.

[10 Pence Short]

UKIP didn't do very well in the Euro elections- their speciality event. From memory they increased their share of the vote by 0.5%. Hardly a ringing protest vote or endorsment.

In a general election they're even less important to the electorate and will probably lose share compared to 2005.

[ewenm]

Bing o said:

Don said:

Looking at the European results I don't feel that the Tories can be remotely complacent. Sure they came top but with just 28%. It's not enough. Not enough to absolutely guarantee the results they want. They've got a year to convince UKIP voters that they're as euro-skeptic as they are, IMO.

The way I see it is that at the Euro's you vote for anyone who wants to get you out of Europe, but at a GE, you vote for the Conservatives - that's always been my intention anyway.

I was quite pleased to see that Cameron said something along the lines of "Labour have lost the public's trust, we need to gain it now", so not assuming that Labour's loss is their gain.

[cs02rm0]

10 Pence Short said:

UKIP didn't do very well in the Euro elections- their speciality event. From memory they increased their share of the vote by 0.5%. Hardly a ringing protest vote or endorsment.

Or, as loud a protest vote as last time?

[EdJ]

10 Pence Short said:

UKIP didn't do very well in the Euro elections- their speciality event. From memory they increased their share of the vote by 0.5%. Hardly a ringing protest vote or endorsment.

In a general election they're even less important to the electorate and will probably lose share compared to 2005.

But they weren't really given the chance to argue about the waste of money that Europe really is. Their voice was drowned out by the expenses scandal.

I hope that this serves as a message for Cameron that if the Tories changed their view on Europe, they would pick up a large part of the UKIP vote. I know loads of Tories who voted UKIP last week who are fed up with the seeming consensus amongst the main parties on this issue.

[10 Pence Short]

cs02rm0 said:

10 Pence Short said:

UKIP didn't do very well in the Euro elections- their speciality event. From memory they increased their share of the vote by 0.5%. Hardly a ringing protest vote or endorsment.

Or, as loud a protest vote as last time?

There has never been a bigger motivation and opportunity for a protest vote against the big three parties as there was this election. The expenses issue has alienated voters against Parliament, in which UKIP are not implicated, and the election was for the European Parliament, in which people are less afraid of taking a punt (see the BNP/Green share of the vote, for example).

Even with the motivation and the opportunity, the UKIP failed to attract any significant number of voters over and above those gained at the last election. The Greens and BNP both improved their share of the vote in a much more significant way.

I would have thought the Conservatives will be very pleased by UKIPs lack of success against them.

[Saddle bum]

There is a tendency for people to vote differently in Euro elections to general elections. Many Tory voters vote IKIP in Euro elections but naturally revert to type during general elections. Many conservatives don't want a federal Europe and believe IKIP is the way to achieve that aim.

As much of the electorate have the retentive memory akin to a goldfish, you only have to have McBroon shakning hands with some victorious British sportsman for NuLaba to claw back a couple of percentage points. He couls also carry out some bribery of the lower orders to get some votes back form the BNP.

[julian64]

I find all these threads very amusing. Especially when they all give the impression that the country will be transformed after a conservative win.

I think it very likely nothing will change. The nanny state will increase no matter what party get elected. MP's salaries will rise. The cost of petrol will rise, and the value of stirling will fall as the world wakes up to our level of debt.

Every priminister will use borrowing to bribe joe public into voting for them. Workers will be taxed more and unemployment will grow.

Even to make it motoring specific, Tax will rise above inflation, so will petrol, and cameras will proliferate.

Name one party where this won't happen, and I'll vote for them. But I don't think you'll be able to.

In order to find that politician, you'd have to find someone who cares about his principals more than his paypacket, and would be willing to impliment some very single minded policies expecting to last only one term in office.

I don't see that he, or she, exists

[Don]

julian64 said:

I find all these threads very amusing. Especially when they all give the impression that the country will be transformed after a conservative win.

To be fair I don't think posters believe that CMD can wave a magic wand and make everything OK.

Governments have less effect on an individual's life than the individual - or, at least, that's the way it should be!

The big questions for a new Government are going to be:

• How far must we raise taxes to repay the national debt?
• How much can we cut public services without making Britain st to live in?
• How can we retain public services whilst cutting spending?
• How many public sector jobs can we cut?

Underlying all that is the great question: What percentage of the economy should be directed by The State?

Governments only make little changes in that percentage but it's the direction that matters.

Some things can't change. We don't want them to! People get sick and need doctors and nurses. Kids get born and need educating. Whilst there are humans there will be criminals so we'll need cops, lawyers, judges and prisons. Whilst there's a North Korea we'll need weapons and people to wield them. etc etc

[Zod]

people won't vote UKIP in a general election. They didn't in 2005 and they certainly won't in 2010. People do not want to take any chance of letting Labour back in.

[unrepentant]

10 Pence Short said:

cs02rm0 said:

10 Pence Short said:

UKIP didn't do very well in the Euro elections- their speciality event. From memory they increased their share of the vote by 0.5%. Hardly a ringing protest vote or endorsment.

Or, as loud a protest vote as last time?

There has never been a bigger motivation and opportunity for a protest vote against the big three parties as there was this election. The expenses issue has alienated voters against Parliament, in which UKIP are not implicated, and the election was for the European Parliament, in which people are less afraid of taking a punt (see the BNP/Green share of the vote, for example).

Even with the motivation and the opportunity, the UKIP failed to attract any significant number of voters over and above those gained at the last election. The Greens and BNP both improved their share of the vote in a much more significant way.

I would have thought the Conservatives will be very pleased by UKIPs lack of success against them.

UKIP did well in previous elections by picking up votes from the Tories. This time the Tory vote has gone up very slightly and the big movement isaway from Labour and that vote seeems to have gone more towards the Greens, the BNP and Indy's rather than UKIP.

Edited by unrepentant on Monday 8th June 10:32

[EdJ]

The Tories won't transform the country overnight, but I hope that they will slow down the torrent of taxpayers' money being wasted by the Labour government. I also hope that they will have an honest debate about the role of Europe and question why we need to pay for so much waste, bureaucracy and interference in our lives.

[NiceCupOfTea]

julian, the country is so spectacularly fked, much of it as a result of the last 12 years of Labour idiocy, that nobody is going to "turn it around" in a couple of months.

The questions are this:

1) who is at least going vaguely in the right direction?
2) who is most likely to get in so we're not wasting a vote?

Look on it as if you are on a train going south to London, but have decided you want to go back to Manchester. Staying on the train to London (voting Labour) isn't going to help, but getting off and getting a train to Liverpool (voting Tory) is at least a step in the right direction. Getting a train to Lichfield is also in the right direction, but pointless as it's going to stop well short

Possibly the worst analogy for anything ever, but hopefully you see what I mean!