Latest Poll thread

[Puggit]

I want to start a thread looking at the latest polling intentions - so here it is!

Conservative: 43
Labour: 28
Lib Dem: 19

GE Projection: 102 Conservative Majority

YouGov 23rd April 2009

[Bing o]

Puggit said:

I want to start a thread looking at the latest polling intentions - so here it is!

Conservative: 43
Labour: 28
Lib Dem: 19

GE Projection: 102 Conservative Majority

YouGov 23rd April 2009

Where does that put the Labour party and the Lib Dems.

I cannot believe 28% of the country would vote those s back in.

[chris watton]

Wouldn't it be great if the Lib Dems pushed pushed Labour in third place - would love to see them try and excuse themselves out of that one...

[esselte]

Bing o said:

Puggit said:

I want to start a thread looking at the latest polling intentions - so here it is!

Conservative: 43
Labour: 28
Lib Dem: 19

GE Projection: 102 Conservative Majority

YouGov 23rd April 2009

Where does that put the Labour party and the Lib Dems.

I cannot believe 28% of the country would vote those s back in.

Even with the size of public sector we have ..?

[Puggit]

According to the poll blog I took this from, this poll, although taken the day after the budget, was taken too early for the media reaction to have had an effect.

ie - the next one is likely to be worse...

[Bing o]

esselte said:

Bing o said:

Puggit said:

I want to start a thread looking at the latest polling intentions - so here it is!

Conservative: 43
Labour: 28
Lib Dem: 19

GE Projection: 102 Conservative Majority

YouGov 23rd April 2009

Where does that put the Labour party and the Lib Dems.

I cannot believe 28% of the country would vote those s back in.

Even with the size of public sector we have ..?

Christ that's a scary thought...

[Puggit]

chris watton said:

Wouldn't it be great if the Lib Dems pushed pushed Labour in third place - would love to see them try and excuse themselves out of that one...

Didn't that happen in one of the by-elections?

Edit: Henley 26 June 2008:

1. John Howell - Conservatives, 19,796 (56.95%, 3.46% increase on 2005 general election share of vote)
2. Stephen Kearney - Liberal Democrats, 9,680 (27.85%, 1.84%)
3. Mark Stevenson - Greens, 1,321 (3.80%, 0.54%)
4. Timothy Rait - British National Party, 1,243 (3.58%)
5. Richard McKenzie - Labour, 1,066 (3.07%, -11.68%)

5th behind Greens and BNP

Edited by Puggit on Friday 24th April 16:31

[esselte]

Bing o said:

esselte said:

Bing o said:

Puggit said:

I want to start a thread looking at the latest polling intentions - so here it is!

Conservative: 43
Labour: 28
Lib Dem: 19

GE Projection: 102 Conservative Majority

YouGov 23rd April 2009

Where does that put the Labour party and the Lib Dems.

I cannot believe 28% of the country would vote those s back in.

Even with the size of public sector we have ..?

Christ that's a scary thought...

It could turn out to be case of "Turkeys and Christmas"...and when you include all the people dependant on benefits........

[Mikeyboy]

esselte said:

Bing o said:

Puggit said:

I want to start a thread looking at the latest polling intentions - so here it is!

Conservative: 43
Labour: 28
Lib Dem: 19

GE Projection: 102 Conservative Majority

YouGov 23rd April 2009

Where does that put the Labour party and the Lib Dems.

I cannot believe 28% of the country would vote those s back in.

Even with the size of public sector we have ..?

Hey I've ended up in a publicly funded part of the work(shy)ing world and most of the people I've met here wouldn't vote labour again. I hope that makes you feel better about things.

[Bing o]

Puggit said:

chris watton said:

Wouldn't it be great if the Lib Dems pushed pushed Labour in third place - would love to see them try and excuse themselves out of that one...

Didn't that happen in one of the by-elections?

Edit: Henley 26 June 2008:

1. John Howell - Conservatives, 19,796 (56.95%, 3.46% increase on 2005 general election share of vote)
2. Stephen Kearney - Liberal Democrats, 9,680 (27.85%, 1.84%)
3. Mark Stevenson - Greens, 1,321 (3.80%, 0.54%)
4. Timothy Rait - British National Party, 1,243 (3.58%)
5. Richard McKenzie - Labour, 1,066 (3.07%, -11.68%)

5th behind Greens and BNP

Edited by Puggit on Friday 24th April 16:31

Henley, the hot bed of socialism that elected the ultra left wing dissident Boris Johnson.

The only surprise is that they even ran for election.

My guess is they might try and save their £500 come 2010....

[Puggit]

Conservative: 45
Labour: 26
Lib Dem: 17

GE Projection: 132 Conservative Majority

ComRes for Indy 27th April 2009

[oyster]

Puggit said:

Conservative: 45
Labour: 26
Lib Dem: 17

GE Projection: 132 Conservative Majority

ComRes for Indy 27th April 2009

What's really unfair is that if those figures were reversed, Labour would have a 250+ majority. Such is the bias in the constituency boundaries.

[Puggit]

Interesting that the Tories have more share now than the other 2 together.

[Fittster]

oyster said:

Puggit said:

Conservative: 45
Labour: 26
Lib Dem: 17

GE Projection: 132 Conservative Majority

ComRes for Indy 27th April 2009

What's really unfair is that if those figures were reversed, Labour would have a 250+ majority. Such is the bias in the constituency boundaries.

Interesting article on that here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

Not simply a case of bias in the constituency boundaries. Another major issue is that lefties will vote tactically to keep Conservatives out.

It's also worth remembering that John Major had MPs in Scotland, the fact that the Conservatives can no longer connect in the regions is hardly the fault of labour.

[MikeyT]

When in 2010 is the latest date an election *has* to be held?

Will Brown wait until then or wait for ONE bit of decent news (whatever that may be) and risk going early?

A lot of the present Govt. ministers have dodgy majorities from memory - Jacqui Smith being the slenderist (if that is a word)

[Puggit]

MikeyT said:

When in 2010 is the latest date an election *has* to be held?

Thurs June 10th, 2010.

However, the date above will only be used if Parliament is allowed to expire - which hasn't happened in recent times. This parliament first met on May 11th 2005, so will expire May 10th 2010. Therefore, election is likely before May 10th 2010 - only just over a year to go!

Recent times have seen elections every 4 years, coinciding with local/EU elections - I think we can safely say there won't be an election in June with these polls!

[Gunny Sergeant D]

Fittster said:

oyster said:

Puggit said:

Conservative: 45
Labour: 26
Lib Dem: 17

GE Projection: 132 Conservative Majority

ComRes for Indy 27th April 2009

What's really unfair is that if those figures were reversed, Labour would have a 250+ majority. Such is the bias in the constituency boundaries.

Interesting article on that here: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

Not simply a case of bias in the constituency boundaries. Another major issue is that lefties will vote tactically to keep Conservatives out.

It's also worth remembering that John Major had MPs in Scotland, the fact that the Conservatives can no longer connect in the regions is hardly the fault of labour.

More here.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/electoral-bias

[Fittster]

MikeyT said:

When in 2010 is the latest date an election *has* to be held?

Will Brown wait until then or wait for ONE bit of decent news (whatever that may be) and risk going early?

A lot of the present Govt. ministers have dodgy majorities from memory - Jacqui Smith being the slenderist (if that is a word)

That's not quite correct, Jacqui Smith has a majority of 2,716 in Reditch, while Jim Knight (Minister of State for Schools and Learners) has a majority of just 1,812 in his south Dorest Seat.

In the 2005 election labour through everything they had at the seat (visits by Tony Blaire, Billy Bragg ran an anti-Conservative tactical voting campaign in Dorset constituencies. The conservatives ran a very poor campaign.

The chances of either of them being employeed after the next election are slim but Jim Knight is the biggest dead man walking in government.

[Puggit]

Regardless of the swing away from Labour, I feel we can expect Smith to be voted out on the basis of her expenses alone.

[Zod]

oyster said:

Puggit said:

Conservative: 45
Labour: 26
Lib Dem: 17

GE Projection: 132 Conservative Majority

ComRes for Indy 27th April 2009

What's really unfair is that if those figures were reversed, Labour would have a 250+ majority. Such is the bias in the constituency boundaries.

Well done for pointing that out. The Tories were too busy fighting each other at the time before last that the electoral boundaries were redrawn and Labour, being a bunch of unprincipled sts, took full advantage.