So the Euro is it going up or down?
Discussion
Got holidays coming up in june so have been watching the exchange rate wobble about all over the place for the past fewxl weeks. Over the last couple of days it's lost 3p to the correct currency (£) so 1.13 down to 1.10 now. Wondering weather to hold out for a better rate or buy now if it's looking like it could slide again? Hopefully all the bad news is out there now so my gut feeling was we would see it creeping up? Knowledge on these matters is not vast so opinions welcome!
k all anyway in real terms. 30 Euro per £1000 in the example you gave.at some point the world will realise that Europe is as screwed as everywhere else and the Euro/£ will come back to sensible level at some point in the near future
just so you know I have no idea if the above is rubbish or not I just made it up!?
just so you know I have no idea if the above is rubbish or not I just made it up!?
Edited by chippy17 on Friday 24th April 13:49
fridaypassion said:
Ok cheers for the replies......I think?
I posted on the off chance there might be someone who does have some knowledge in the field. Your more likley to in a poker match if you know the rules
Lot's of people have knowledge. Trying to predict anything is hard enough at the best of times. This is not the best of times.I posted on the off chance there might be someone who does have some knowledge in the field. Your more likley to in a poker match if you know the rules
From my opinion, it really doesn't matter - buy them now, you might loose a bit, you might gain a bit. Buy them later, you might loose a bit, you might gain a bit.
Bing o said:
From my opinion, it really doesn't matter - buy them now, you might loose a bit, you might gain a bit. Buy them later, you might loose a bit, you might gain a bit.
This ignores the disproportionate effect of downside risk.If you buy them now, you are buying the certainty that you will able to afford your holiday. If the pound crashes, you still go. If the pound soars, you exchange more and feel great.
If you don't buy them now, and the pound crashes, you will not only have a crap holiday (or not be able to go at all), but you'll also come back to soaring inflation on imported goods.
fridaypassion said:
Ok cheers for the replies......I think?
I posted on the off chance there might be someone who does have some knowledge in the field. Your more likley to in a poker match if you know the rules
Nobody knows, that's the point. Have you not noticed that the stock markets and the currency markets have been yo-yoing like crazy since last September? The city "experts" have been exposed as clueless.I posted on the off chance there might be someone who does have some knowledge in the field. Your more likley to in a poker match if you know the rules
Lets say your going to spend E1k Euros over the holiday. Its impossible to know what will happen however it could go up down or be the same, one way of reducing your risk is to buy some now and then some later (of course you need to ensure tha the buying costsdont negate and potential upside.)
You could opt for 1/3rd now then 1/3rd in a few weeks then 1/3rd when you go or if things start to go th wrong way then change 2/3rd instead of 2*1/3'ds.
Then again currently its c89p:E if you assume it could move around in the 0.85:E - 0.95:E how much is that really going o cost you?
@ 0.85 E1k will cost £850
@ 0.89 E1k will cost £890
@ 0.95 E1k will cost £950
So were currently on 0.89 thus I'd say the max gain/loss in buyig now vs buying later could be +£40 or -£60. I'd say if the rate goes up a bit now/soon then buy and be done with it.
Of course if your only taking say E500 then its really not worth the heart ache - focus more on the best commission/total cost to change than just on the rate you get
You could opt for 1/3rd now then 1/3rd in a few weeks then 1/3rd when you go or if things start to go th wrong way then change 2/3rd instead of 2*1/3'ds.
Then again currently its c89p:E if you assume it could move around in the 0.85:E - 0.95:E how much is that really going o cost you?
@ 0.85 E1k will cost £850
@ 0.89 E1k will cost £890
@ 0.95 E1k will cost £950
So were currently on 0.89 thus I'd say the max gain/loss in buyig now vs buying later could be +£40 or -£60. I'd say if the rate goes up a bit now/soon then buy and be done with it.
Of course if your only taking say E500 then its really not worth the heart ache - focus more on the best commission/total cost to change than just on the rate you get
The Daily Telegraph was saying that the Euro is now 15% overvalued against Sterling. I went out the other day to buy 500 Euro's and got 1.10 to the pound at Thos Cooke. As most of my June holiday costs have been paid already, I'm figuring that the 500 will cover most of my other out of pocket expences. I have a strong feeling that the Euro is going to be hit very hard soon, but whether Sterling will benefit is hard to believe given "looking glass" Darling is clueless as to what the UK economy is really doing. I expect this years French trip will involve a few picnics in place of restaurant meals.
ianash said:
The Daily Telegraph was saying that the Euro is now 15% overvalued against Sterling. I went out the other day to buy 500 Euro's and got 1.10 to the pound at Thos Cooke. As most of my June holiday costs have been paid already, I'm figuring that the 500 will cover most of my other out of pocket expences. I have a strong feeling that the Euro is going to be hit very hard soon, but whether Sterling will benefit is hard to believe given "looking glass" Darling is clueless as to what the UK economy is really doing. I expect this years French trip will involve a few picnics in place of restaurant meals.
E500 unless either currency has a huge movement will not cost/gain you mcuh either way in £ terms (% wise for sue it will).
HundredthIdiot said:
ianash said:
The Daily Telegraph was saying that the Euro is now 15% overvalued against Sterling.
A peculiar assertion for them to make, although not the first time I've heard it. Overvalued compared to what?The price is the market.
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