Can Iran finally throw out the Zealots?

[Gargamel]

Protests in Iran are picking up again, can they do it this time. Executions in 2024 were at an all time high. The economy is the worst it’s been in a long long time. Is this the first good news story of 2026.

[Ridgemont]

Unlikely. The politicians at the top are extraordinarily effecient at destroying any organised resistance as per 2009.
Violence, rape and dissidents being arrested and never being seen again is standard operating practice.

[Yahonza]

Awful place - such an oppressive theocracy.
There will be no Arab spring there, unfortunately.

[Gargamel]

I am not so sure, once you are in the streets openly chanting for the death of the president. Then change is possible.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqj2llkjv8vo

Would be lovely to see Iran lifted out of the medieval mire it’s been in under the zealots.

[Jasandjules]

It will take the kind of revolution we need here.

[DeadShed]

Jasandjules said:

It will take the kind of revolution we need here.

Do you really think Iran is in any way comparable to the UK?

[BikeBikeBIke]

DeadShed said:

Do you really think Iran is in any way comparable to the UK?

Give it 40 years and we will be directly comparable.

[Unreal]

Gargamel said:

I am not so sure, once you are in the streets openly chanting for the death of the president. Then change is possible.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqj2llkjv8vo

Would be lovely to see Iran lifted out of the medieval mire it s been in under the zealots.

I'll predict the regime will fall within a decade but it might need some help. One of those rare situations where I would support intervention.

[Simbu]

The water supply issues in Tehran and other cities is a disaster waiting to happen. Between decades of mismanagement, climate changes and neighbouring countries damming rivers, it is only getting worse. If people are literally dying of thirst, they don't have much to lose in a revolution.

[Biker 1]

I think they'll ride out the water crisis for at least another 2 or 3 years. Rainfall is abundant in the middle east right now.
Will the leadership give up 15th century traditions anytime soon??

[irc]

Unreal said:

I'll predict the regime will fall within a decade but it might need some help. One of those rare situations where I would support intervention.

Which successful foreign imposed regime change would we copy?

Will you sign up to be part of the invading force?

[hidetheelephants]

It can't happen soon enough, whether this year is the year who knows.

[Unreal]

irc said:

Unreal said:

I'll predict the regime will fall within a decade but it might need some help. One of those rare situations where I would support intervention.

Which successful foreign imposed regime change would we copy?

Will you sign up to be part of the invading force?

Where are you getting the 'we' from? My guess would be any intervention will be by the US.

[hidetheelephants]

BunkMoreland said:

The overthrow has to be by the people themselves. AND backed by other countries in the region. Preferably ones with a functioning economy! And who can defend themselves. Saudi probably being the obvious, but I dont know that they care enough.

Why in the wide world of sports would wahabi monarchists want a liberal-ish democracy next door?

[rodericb]

Gargamel said:

Protests in Iran are picking up again, can they do it this time. Executions in 2024 were at an all time high. The economy is the worst it s been in a long long time. Is this the first good news story of 2026.

ha ha.

The rains will come, inshallah.....

[paddy1970]

History suggests regimes fall when the security forces fracture, not just when conditions worsen.

[DeadShed]

hidetheelephants said:

BunkMoreland said:

The overthrow has to be by the people themselves. AND backed by other countries in the region. Preferably ones with a functioning economy! And who can defend themselves. Saudi probably being the obvious, but I dont know that they care enough.

Why in the wide world of sports would wahabi monarchists want a liberal-ish democracy next door?

Well, Sunni rule over a Shia population works so well in other countries. Just look at Iraq and Syrian history… oh wait… don’t do that.

[Murph7355]

Unreal said:

Where are you getting the 'we' from? My guess would be any intervention will be by the US.

The point being made is a very good one, and remains.

What would you support the "intervention" doing? Who would be installed instead of the current lot?

You cannot support intervention unless you know the answers to these things. Or you're prepared to learn nothing from history. And with that region particularly, that is a very dangerous choice.

Libya, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan...yake your pick from great examples of where intervention gets you.

[Austin Prefect]

Murph7355 said:

The point being made is a very good one, and remains.

What would you support the "intervention" doing? Who would be installed instead of the current lot?

You cannot support intervention unless you know the answers to these things. Or you're prepared to learn nothing from history. And with that region particularly, that is a very dangerous choice.

Libya, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan...yake your pick from great examples of where intervention gets you.

The problem is that if (EG) the US decides to intervene to change the regime they will be held responsible for whatever the new regime gets up to. But if the current regime remains in place nobody who could have intervened but decided not to is held in any way responsible for what they get up to.

[Ridgemont]

No one is intervening in Iran in any meaningful way. Israel and the U.S. (possibly supported by RAF jets out of Akritori) might do air strikes in the event of Iranian aggression but the idea that the west gets involved in boots on the ground in Iran is for the birds. This is for the Iranians to sort out. None of us (US, Israel and least of all the UK) have the numbers to make a serious difference. And in all likelihood such an intervention would be catastrophically counterproductive. Israel may help things along with strategic bombing but they would be well advised to stay out of it. Every time Iran comes under external attack the regime is able to sway public opinion on their side. Proud people.

Edited by Ridgemont on Wednesday 31st December 20:24