The looming retirement crisis
Discussion
I saw this graphic with projected change in demographics and increasing percentage of retired people to working people:
Britain already has low productivity and low growth of GDP. What is going to happen as more and more people leave the workforce and are not being replaced (because of low birth rates)? Who will be providing all the goods and services to the retirees?
Britain already has low productivity and low growth of GDP. What is going to happen as more and more people leave the workforce and are not being replaced (because of low birth rates)? Who will be providing all the goods and services to the retirees?
Spare tyre said:
Big problem, many folk argue that’s why the boat people etc are being allowed
I’m not bright enough to have answers sadly
Without immigration the picture would look even worse.I’m not bright enough to have answers sadly
With those forecasts I can’t see how state pensions will survive. I suspect they will become means tested at some point.
But seriously all mature western economies. While climate change will affect us all in some way or another over time, we'll probably adjust. It's this demographic timebomb that no government appears to want to talk about that will have the most immediate and obvious impact, within just a generation or two.
Retired people will die. There aren't as many people working, but they are aging. There are fewer young people feeding in from the bottom.
The ponzi will collapse.
The only solutions I can see for the UK are:
1) Accept that the developing nations are mostly have a much younger demographic so we will intevitably have to accept immigration is a necessity to keep the UK functioning (and to look after all these old people - me included by that point).
2) Accept that without the above, perhaps we are reaching a peak population point, after which without the above, it will come down.
3) Accept that without feeding the bottom with the above, some of the current problems might solve themselves. Housing shortages might reduce, but the value of houses (therefore people's equity in them if you look at it like that) will stabilise and come down as supply will increasingly outstrip demand.
4) Demand on public and social services and NHS will continue to ramp up to meed the needs of these increasingly aged people. (and the funding to afford them will increasingly have to come from an ever decreasing proportion of the population still working and paying tax AT ALL LEVELS).
5) Because of reason 4, child birth rates will likely continue to decline.
We have decades to plan for this, but not many. The UK Government of all parties need to work together and look to Japan and Korea for inspiration on exactly how you plan for this shift in the make up of the population. Sadly, I very much doubt this will happen.
Without immigration or some miraculous leap in the birth rate, there is a certain inevitability of the glide path down to a crusty and aged economy that'll do not better than limp along because it hasn't got the resources to do anything else.
Retired people will die. There aren't as many people working, but they are aging. There are fewer young people feeding in from the bottom.
The ponzi will collapse.
The only solutions I can see for the UK are:
1) Accept that the developing nations are mostly have a much younger demographic so we will intevitably have to accept immigration is a necessity to keep the UK functioning (and to look after all these old people - me included by that point).
2) Accept that without the above, perhaps we are reaching a peak population point, after which without the above, it will come down.
3) Accept that without feeding the bottom with the above, some of the current problems might solve themselves. Housing shortages might reduce, but the value of houses (therefore people's equity in them if you look at it like that) will stabilise and come down as supply will increasingly outstrip demand.
4) Demand on public and social services and NHS will continue to ramp up to meed the needs of these increasingly aged people. (and the funding to afford them will increasingly have to come from an ever decreasing proportion of the population still working and paying tax AT ALL LEVELS).
5) Because of reason 4, child birth rates will likely continue to decline.
We have decades to plan for this, but not many. The UK Government of all parties need to work together and look to Japan and Korea for inspiration on exactly how you plan for this shift in the make up of the population. Sadly, I very much doubt this will happen.
Without immigration or some miraculous leap in the birth rate, there is a certain inevitability of the glide path down to a crusty and aged economy that'll do not better than limp along because it hasn't got the resources to do anything else.
grumbledoak said:
Manual labour will be replaced by robots. White collar crap replaced by AI.
And our shiny new nation of 2nd gen immigrants will have very little to do except breed and eat.
GDP will rise, of course.
As plans go, this one's a cracker.
A bit of an exaggeration, but probably closer to the truth than needing lots of unskilled immigration to fend off the fiscal burden of the numbers of retired in 2050. Particularly when most of those who have come in will be retired by then AND one of the reasons we have a falling birth rate is housing costs. And our shiny new nation of 2nd gen immigrants will have very little to do except breed and eat.
GDP will rise, of course.
As plans go, this one's a cracker.
grumbledoak said:
Manual labour will be replaced by robots. White collar crap replaced by AI.
And our shiny new nation of 2nd gen immigrants will have very little to do except breed and eat.
GDP will rise, of course.
As plans go, this one's a cracker.
Welcome to the thread Professor Pangloss!And our shiny new nation of 2nd gen immigrants will have very little to do except breed and eat.
GDP will rise, of course.
As plans go, this one's a cracker.
I need the “not sure serious” gif here as can’t tell if you are joking.
I am not sure about housing. Even if population falls the demand for housing might not in the short term as the number of people per household is also falling (far more people living alone) and the latter might outweigh the former in the short term.
Another issue for the UK is that the average age of properties in the UK is much higher than many other countries.
Another issue for the UK is that the average age of properties in the UK is much higher than many other countries.
JagLover said:
grumbledoak said:
Manual labour will be replaced by robots. White collar crap replaced by AI.
And our shiny new nation of 2nd gen immigrants will have very little to do except breed and eat.
GDP will rise, of course.
As plans go, this one's a cracker.
A bit of an exaggeration, but probably closer to the truth than needing lots of unskilled immigration to fend off the fiscal burden of the numbers of retired in 2050. Particularly when most of those who have come in will be retired by then AND one of the reasons we have a falling birth rate is housing costs. And our shiny new nation of 2nd gen immigrants will have very little to do except breed and eat.
GDP will rise, of course.
As plans go, this one's a cracker.
As for housing costs it may have a small effect but all European countries are seeing falls while having much lower housing costs.
I It more a change I attitudes. many women want to work and progress which is impacted by children.
The problem is the fall will continue. The average age of a woman in the UK is 40, so the number who can have children is falling fast.
The government have recently pulled all the statistics on pension and retirement.
Thankfully I took a screenshot in 2023 as I found them contradictory to the narrative.
As you can observe, the number of people claiming state pension isn't actually spiraling out of control. Probably thanks to COVID and the increases in state pension age.
Until the ONS update the statistics, we cannot really be sure of the truth.
Thankfully I took a screenshot in 2023 as I found them contradictory to the narrative.
As you can observe, the number of people claiming state pension isn't actually spiraling out of control. Probably thanks to COVID and the increases in state pension age.
Until the ONS update the statistics, we cannot really be sure of the truth.
Very little is being made about NEETS
https://www.bbc.co.uk/articles/cz55mjj4rlgo
Stats here
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/p...
Or those on sickness benefits
Personally I think the problem is as much people of working age not actually working.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/articles/cz55mjj4rlgo
Stats here
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/p...
Or those on sickness benefits
Personally I think the problem is as much people of working age not actually working.
You have provided the wrong metric for the premise of your question. Just because there are going to be more people over 65 per working adult doesn’t necessarily mean that there won’t be people to take on their jobs. For example, that same increase could just be because retirees are living longer, not because the workforce is shrinking, or the people over 65 might keep working, or the workforce might stay constant or grow but even more people turn 65 than the growth.
You should probably be posting a graph of the U.K. workforce projected over the same time period. Then, to address the specific risk around over 65s, provide data to show what increased direct employment there will be to cover the demographic’s specific needs (eg care homes, hospitals etc.).
You should probably be posting a graph of the U.K. workforce projected over the same time period. Then, to address the specific risk around over 65s, provide data to show what increased direct employment there will be to cover the demographic’s specific needs (eg care homes, hospitals etc.).
Skeptisk said:
Without immigration the picture would look even worse.
Retired people will be fine if they need their car washed, food delivered by e-bike or their hair cut at a ‘Turkish’ barber then! (Joke)Skeptisk said:
With those forecasts I can’t see how state pensions will survive. I suspect they will become means tested at some point.
I’m planning on it not being around when I retire (I’m 47).Which ever government introduces means tested will be out of power for a generation. So it’ll be a bold move. No doubt only done once it’s too late.
alock said:
If anyone thinks immigration is the solution, I have a pyramid scheme you might want to invest in.
There are significant differences. Ponzi schemes tend to be short lived and create no return on investment.An immigrant arriving at 25 will work for over 40 years and because of their age will likely have a family.
alock said:
If anyone thinks immigration is the solution, I have a pyramid scheme you might want to invest in.
This.It's a ponzi scheme.
One issue we can solve is to get people into the workplace faster. My fathers generation frequently left school at 15-16 and did apprenticeships in actual real skilled jobs. That's way better than training people in useless crap up to 21-22 and then them going into unskilled jobs that 60 years ago would have been done by a 15yo. I'm not sure what percentage of people Need to go to University but it certainly isn't *all* of us.
We can't work *that* much later than we already are but we can easily start earlier and we have in the past.
It's not a solution, but it slightly mitigates the problem.
We simply can't all work for 35 years and then retire for 25 years.
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