China vs Taiwan - when will it kick off?
Discussion
I’ve been intrigued about this for a while as there has been a stand off for some time but things seem to be shifting.
China is now investing in modern equivalents of the Normandy mulberry docks.
https://www.removepaywall.com/search?url=https://w...
For those uninformed the key here is that Taiwan offers little in the way of easy access for troops largely because of the gradient of beaches etc.
The new Chinese landing equipment circumvents that with enormous landing ramps. Taipei especially is vulnerable to its south:
https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-strugg...
It’s relevant because geopolitical assessments suggest that China has a very narrow window to be able to conduct a potential invasion:
https://media.defense.gov/2023/Apr/24/2003205865/-...
From 2027 to 2030.
However the question might be: has the election of Trump changed the calculus? Trump has always regarded China as the US’s primary threat. Could the Chinese be considering moving early and could we be unwittingly on the edge of a global war?
I put it out there because for the best part of 3 months back in 2021-22 I recall arguing the toss with people on the Ukraine thread about whether Russia was going to attack. It seemed to me obvious it was going to because of the preponderance of medical and mobile crematorial vehicles that had been moved into place along the border.
Are we witnessing the same now? And how soon?
China is now investing in modern equivalents of the Normandy mulberry docks.
https://www.removepaywall.com/search?url=https://w...
For those uninformed the key here is that Taiwan offers little in the way of easy access for troops largely because of the gradient of beaches etc.
The new Chinese landing equipment circumvents that with enormous landing ramps. Taipei especially is vulnerable to its south:
https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-strugg...
It’s relevant because geopolitical assessments suggest that China has a very narrow window to be able to conduct a potential invasion:
https://media.defense.gov/2023/Apr/24/2003205865/-...
From 2027 to 2030.
However the question might be: has the election of Trump changed the calculus? Trump has always regarded China as the US’s primary threat. Could the Chinese be considering moving early and could we be unwittingly on the edge of a global war?
I put it out there because for the best part of 3 months back in 2021-22 I recall arguing the toss with people on the Ukraine thread about whether Russia was going to attack. It seemed to me obvious it was going to because of the preponderance of medical and mobile crematorial vehicles that had been moved into place along the border.
Are we witnessing the same now? And how soon?
I think they'd be daft to do it. The country has been transformed in the 40 years since I was there.
Mud and dust has been turned into cities that make ours look ancient along with amazing tech like maglev trains, driverless taxis, market leader in cheapish electric cars, all sorts of high tech and a massive middle class and upper class of citizens.
They depend on selling to us in the West and are a Superpower with clout.
Why would they want to fek that up?
Mud and dust has been turned into cities that make ours look ancient along with amazing tech like maglev trains, driverless taxis, market leader in cheapish electric cars, all sorts of high tech and a massive middle class and upper class of citizens.
They depend on selling to us in the West and are a Superpower with clout.
Why would they want to fek that up?
A caveat/correction for you Ridgemont: the State Dept not Trump are the ones who regard China as the greatest strategic thread to US interests and they started this pivot from a European based view of threats to an Asian based view during the Obama administration.
The view is entirely correct aswell, the next strategic threat to the The West absolutely is China.
The view is entirely correct aswell, the next strategic threat to the The West absolutely is China.
Southerner said:
FFS. We’re all doomed. The most intelligent species the planet has ever known, and all we want to do is wipe ourselves out. Might as well just get it over and done with. Sigh… 
Not sure we’re all doomed but if Taiwan gets disrupted the things are going to get exceptionally wonky for the world for a while if not downright nasty:https://dimerco.com/taiwans-strategic-role-global-...
croyde said:
I think they'd be daft to do it. The country has been transformed in the 40 years since I was there.
Mud and dust has been turned into cities that make ours look ancient along with amazing tech like maglev trains, driverless taxis, market leader in cheapish electric cars, all sorts of high tech and a massive middle class and upper class of citizens.
They depend on selling to us in the West and are a Superpower with clout.
Why would they want to fek that up?
Because dictators are aMud and dust has been turned into cities that make ours look ancient along with amazing tech like maglev trains, driverless taxis, market leader in cheapish electric cars, all sorts of high tech and a massive middle class and upper class of citizens.
They depend on selling to us in the West and are a Superpower with clout.
Why would they want to fek that up?
holes.DeejRC said:
A caveat/correction for you Ridgemont: the State Dept not Trump are the ones who regard China as the greatest strategic thread to US interests and they started this pivot from a European based view of threats to an Asian based view during the Obama administration.
The view is entirely correct aswell, the next strategic threat to the The West absolutely is China.
I agree however I think Trump is viscerally against China: The view is entirely correct aswell, the next strategic threat to the The West absolutely is China.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-chin...
China is the one thing that unites the Democrats and Republicans.
China probably doesn't want to start anything with a madman in the White House especially with cross party support and that will probably mean fewer dummy blockades which pushes the real one back even further.
I think we'll be okay for a while.
China probably doesn't want to start anything with a madman in the White House especially with cross party support and that will probably mean fewer dummy blockades which pushes the real one back even further.
I think we'll be okay for a while.
croyde said:
I think they'd be daft to do it. The country has been transformed in the 40 years since I was there.
Mud and dust has been turned into cities that make ours look ancient along with amazing tech like maglev trains, driverless taxis, market leader in cheapish electric cars, all sorts of high tech and a massive middle class and upper class of citizens.
They depend on selling to us in the West and are a Superpower with clout.
Why would they want to fek that up?
I agree, but..Mud and dust has been turned into cities that make ours look ancient along with amazing tech like maglev trains, driverless taxis, market leader in cheapish electric cars, all sorts of high tech and a massive middle class and upper class of citizens.
They depend on selling to us in the West and are a Superpower with clout.
Why would they want to fek that up?
The west also has no choice but to buy from China. What is the alternative? Rebuild our industrial base to the 1950s level (bit probably about x3 due to population) Never going to happen as it's impossible even if millions of Brits wanted to work 70 hours a week to an early death for a pittance.
So like people still buying Russian stuff, if china does something stupid then the west will grumble but keep buying.
Also, china - like most capitalist based systems - needs growth to support itself. When internal growth runs out (ie massive youth unemployment) what does a country do in the face of internal disquiet?
Well s
tty ones invent a false enemy and start a war. Kills two birds with one stone Finally with the decline of the US perception internationally (ie threats from a NATO country to invade a NATO country) and the US's own struggle with post industrialisation, I think China are seeing it becoming easier.
I'm not ready to hide under my desk just yet, as practically the USA won't start a nuclear war with china over tiawan. They will noisily roll over, like is happening with the south china sea.
Southerner said:
FFS. We’re all doomed. The most intelligent species the planet has ever known, and all we want to do is wipe ourselves out. Might as well just get it over and done with. Sigh…
Warfare is as old as humanity, and even part of the lives of our closest primate ancestors. It's not going away, it's who we are.I'm not sure it's who we all are.
Just the one's who won't be affected and want to use their shiny new toys.
Thanks to the internet and cheap air travel I know people in many countries and from many countries around the world.
We all just want to get on, find a partner, look after our families, have some fun.
Modern capitalist societies having wars with eachother is just bonkers, but those that rule us just don't want to learn.
Just the one's who won't be affected and want to use their shiny new toys.
Thanks to the internet and cheap air travel I know people in many countries and from many countries around the world.
We all just want to get on, find a partner, look after our families, have some fun.
Modern capitalist societies having wars with eachother is just bonkers, but those that rule us just don't want to learn.
croyde said:
I'm not sure it's who we all are.
Just the one's who won't be affected and want to use their shiny new toys.
Thanks to the internet and cheap air travel I know people in many countries and from many countries around the world.
We all just want to get on, find a partner, look after our families, have some fun.
Modern capitalist societies having wars with eachother is just bonkers, but those that rule us just don't want to learn.
I disagree. Modern society places a thin veneer of civility over us, but scratch the surface and you see what human beings are really capable of. At times of war when otherwise peaceful men have been called on, they are as capable as anyone when it comes to inflicting violence on other humans. You really don't need to look hard to see examples all over the world.Just the one's who won't be affected and want to use their shiny new toys.
Thanks to the internet and cheap air travel I know people in many countries and from many countries around the world.
We all just want to get on, find a partner, look after our families, have some fun.
Modern capitalist societies having wars with eachother is just bonkers, but those that rule us just don't want to learn.
LimaDelta said:
croyde said:
I'm not sure it's who we all are.
Just the one's who won't be affected and want to use their shiny new toys.
Thanks to the internet and cheap air travel I know people in many countries and from many countries around the world.
We all just want to get on, find a partner, look after our families, have some fun.
Modern capitalist societies having wars with eachother is just bonkers, but those that rule us just don't want to learn.
I disagree. Modern society places a thin veneer of civility over us, but scratch the surface and you see what human beings are really capable of. At times of war when otherwise peaceful men have been called on, they are as capable as anyone when it comes to inflicting violence on other humans. You really don't need to look hard to see examples all over the world.Just the one's who won't be affected and want to use their shiny new toys.
Thanks to the internet and cheap air travel I know people in many countries and from many countries around the world.
We all just want to get on, find a partner, look after our families, have some fun.
Modern capitalist societies having wars with eachother is just bonkers, but those that rule us just don't want to learn.
We are animals (in every sense) and "dominating the stairs" is genetically built into us.
If we can do this "peacefully" (usually another thin veneer) then we do. But armed conflict is a small leap away.
Darwin was on the money
Real questions is, will China invade Taiwan before the US invades Greenland
Unless Taiwan does something stupid - never. What we have now is face saving on both sides. Taiwan agrees it is part of China, China agrees Taiwan is part of China. But under a different administration. Basically ‘Home Rule’ in UK terms.
The kick off will be if Taiwan declares independence. Which, as they are not stupid, they will not do.
China will develop capabilities to ensure that Taiwan knows that if they do something stupid, it will not go well. Taiwan will develop capabilities to ensure that China knows that it will be very expensive- so not worth doing unless Taiwan declares independence which would be an existential crisis for China
The obvious non violent approach (a blockade of Taiwan unless they agree to peacefully re-integrate) is off the table for now due to TSMC…. China itself can’t afford that shutting down, unless it is an existential crisis for China, in which case they are using violence anyway.
The kick off will be if Taiwan declares independence. Which, as they are not stupid, they will not do.
China will develop capabilities to ensure that Taiwan knows that if they do something stupid, it will not go well. Taiwan will develop capabilities to ensure that China knows that it will be very expensive- so not worth doing unless Taiwan declares independence which would be an existential crisis for China
The obvious non violent approach (a blockade of Taiwan unless they agree to peacefully re-integrate) is off the table for now due to TSMC…. China itself can’t afford that shutting down, unless it is an existential crisis for China, in which case they are using violence anyway.
Sadly, I guess it depends on how badly China want the chip production capacity.
A report a couple of weeks ago had ASML (the only people that can currently make the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines needed by TSMC et al. for the ultra-low nanometer chips) saying that they think China is only two or three years away from getting their own machines to work.
So the point may soon become moot causing China to fall back solely to political arguments rather than technological ones.
A report a couple of weeks ago had ASML (the only people that can currently make the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines needed by TSMC et al. for the ultra-low nanometer chips) saying that they think China is only two or three years away from getting their own machines to work.
So the point may soon become moot causing China to fall back solely to political arguments rather than technological ones.
Even then - China hasn't kicked off over Taiwan since 1949. Unless Taiwan does something to upset the status quo, there is no reason to think they will.
The only scenario I can see is such a domestic political crisis in China that the CCP thinks that the ‘distraction’ of an invasion or blockade is worth it.
The only scenario I can see is such a domestic political crisis in China that the CCP thinks that the ‘distraction’ of an invasion or blockade is worth it.
It's a topic that apparently gets spoken in China: although I am quite often there, I don't speak any Chinese and therefore have no access to actual information. However several people I know have openly talked to me about it, or rather let's say enquired if we (in the West) think that China will try to attack Taiwan.
I was rather surprised, as usually talking about politics is a no-go there and if you do it's generally because we start the conversation; in this case it was them and the range was from the most conservative "do you think China will go to war against Taiwan" to the most extreme "I hope our president is not as stupid as Putin and pull us into a war we do not want".
The feeling I could gather is that there's a lot of sabre rattling going on, but actually the risk of the public opinion being strongly against it might be a leverage that could withhold Xi from actually making a move.
As has been said by previous posters, I see a future where Taiwan might symbolically reunite with China, but not under current China's presidency: the way the central government has dealt with Hong Kong was so wrong that no-one can believe it could be any different for Taiwan. I think that the outcome could have been much different if HK had been left free to keep it's own government.
I was rather surprised, as usually talking about politics is a no-go there and if you do it's generally because we start the conversation; in this case it was them and the range was from the most conservative "do you think China will go to war against Taiwan" to the most extreme "I hope our president is not as stupid as Putin and pull us into a war we do not want".
The feeling I could gather is that there's a lot of sabre rattling going on, but actually the risk of the public opinion being strongly against it might be a leverage that could withhold Xi from actually making a move.
As has been said by previous posters, I see a future where Taiwan might symbolically reunite with China, but not under current China's presidency: the way the central government has dealt with Hong Kong was so wrong that no-one can believe it could be any different for Taiwan. I think that the outcome could have been much different if HK had been left free to keep it's own government.
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