End of the empire

[Lannister902]

Just wondered what people's thoughts on the American/western empire that's ruled and led the way over the past century(s), and now what looks like a weakening powerhouse.

I could be completely wrong, but I see china and it's rise, it's influence around the world especially in 'third world'/developing nations and see a unstoppable powerhouse that's going from strength to strength whilst us here in the west look isolated and a failing society with less and less influence around the world.

America seem to be trying it's best to tame the beast with whatever it can throw at them.
Call me a drama queen but I worry America and the West will eventually role one last desperate dice and start a world war that'll probably result in the end of mankind

[Getragdogleg]

Stop buying stuff off them and their power will wane. Much like how our power has waned...

[pheonix478]

Getragdogleg said:

Stop buying stuff off them and their power will wane. Much like how our power has waned...

100% This. Pay attention to where your goods are made and try and buy non or mostly non Chinese goods. Of course it's not always possible but for a lot of things, especially big ticket items, it is. Far too many muppets buying crap like MGs wondering where all the jobs went.

Also, whilst China is undoubtedly getting richer and more powerful, they're still a poor country, their GDP per capita is still only that of Turkey or Brazil, half that of Greece, quarter that of the UK and EU and 1/7th that of the US. Also look at their demographics... they are absolutely catastrophic; their population will soon be in very hard decline with the UN estimating it to halve by 2100! That's a population drop of 700m people. Not a lot they can do about it either because there simply aren't enough young people. In terms of how their economy will adjust, I think it's probably without precedent, but it won't be good.

[OutInTheShed]

I think the Western World was fked as soon as it lost control of the apostrophe.

[wc98]

Getragdogleg said:

Stop buying stuff off them and their power will wane. Much like how our power has waned...

Or do what Canada have done recently and stick 100% tariff on their cars and 25% on steel and aluminium. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2n091v4m5o
I've no problem with globalism providing it drags everyone around the globe to the same or similar standards of income/living etc. I have a big problem with the continued exploitation of people to benefit a relatively small amount of people, including many in the west that would sell their own granny to the Chinese to make a quick buck and screw the longer term consequences that we are seeing today and will be for some time to come.

[okgo]

India economy is growing much faster and could overtake China in the not too distant.

[Dingu]

I think China is on shakier ground than you think OP. Not to say the wests influence won’t wane, arguably that could be a good thing for the majority of the world.

[Ian Geary]

Lannister902 said:

Call me a drama queen but I worry America and the West will eventually role one last desperate dice and start a world war that'll probably result in the end of mankind

Drama queen! (well, you did ask)

Getragdogleg said:

Stop buying stuff off them and their power will wane. Much like how our power has waned...

Easier said than done.
The "West" (ok the UK) was perfectly happy to outsource manufacturing to china and the far east. We no longer have
- high death rates
- poor quality of life
- pollution

From this sector, and we can (in theory) at least, reskill our economy to be high wage high earning service sector. We also get more stuff cheaper than it was, yet alone how expensive it would be if built locally (which isn't even possible anyway).

I'm in finance, and I get to WFH 3 days, have a decent house in a lowish pollution area (ignoring the local airport), and will probably retire after a happy 60 years with 20 good years left. I'd expect my kids to have the same.

Would I swap this for a job in a manufacturing sector where I work 12 gruelling hours a day 6 days a week to live in a workers terrace and die at 60 like my great grandparents did?

Er, no thank you, and I would be flabbergasted if you or anyone replied yes.

The only way I could see the UK voluntary taking manufacturing back is in some sort of dystopian "postman" / "In Time" type future where you work or starve. Needless to say I don't want that either.

No one is going to do it voluntarily, and society (this forum) is such that it will be "someone else" who should do it, but not you.

Or AI automated mfg replaces jobs on a massive scale, and global unemployment screws everyone anyway (assuming climate change hasn't already done so of course.)

[Ridgemont]

China doomed itself 44 years ago with the implementation of the one child policy which was only mitigated 8 years ago. Apart from hugely damaging China’s population growth it created a large sex imbalance with a preponderance of male ‘incels’.

The upshot of it is that within 80 years the forecast is that China’s population will drop below 1bn.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05...

China has shot its bolt.

And India will be waiting to take full advantage.

[pheonix478]

okgo said:

India economy is growing much faster and could overtake China in the not too distant.

In what sense? Indian GDP is something like $3 trillion and China's is 20tr odd. India's GDP/capita is $2000. That's practically a rounding error. The only thing they are overtaking China in is population growth and number of people in abject poverty.

[Ridgemont]

pheonix478 said:

okgo said:

India economy is growing much faster and could overtake China in the not too distant.

In what sense? Indian GDP is something like $3 trillion and China's is 20tr odd. India's GDP/capita is $2000. That's practically a rounding error. The only thing they are overtaking China in is population growth and number of people in abject poverty.

While reshoring is a thing the reality is that western companies will always regard labour cost as critical.

India’s (and others) opportunity is to put a stake in the ground as a possible alternative manufacturing hub:

https://www.scmr.com/article/shift-from-china-is-l...

[richhead]

Ian Geary said:

Easier said than done.
The "West" (ok the UK) was perfectly happy to outsource manufacturing to china and the far east. We no longer have
- high death rates
- poor quality of life
- pollution

From this sector, and we can (in theory) at least, reskill our economy to be high wage high earning service sector. We also get more stuff cheaper than it was, yet alone how expensive it would be if built locally (which isn't even possible anyway).

I'm in finance, and I get to WFH 3 days, have a decent house in a lowish pollution area (ignoring the local airport), and will probably retire after a happy 60 years with 20 good years left. I'd expect my kids to have the same.

Would I swap this for a job in a manufacturing sector where I work 12 gruelling hours a day 6 days a week to live in a workers terrace and die at 60 like my great grandparents did?

Er, no thank you, and I would be flabbergasted if you or anyone replied yes.

The only way I could see the UK voluntary taking manufacturing back is in some sort of dystopian "postman" / "In Time" type future where you work or starve. Needless to say I don't want that either.

No one is going to do it voluntarily, and society (this forum) is such that it will be "someone else" who should do it, but not you.

Or AI automated mfg replaces jobs on a massive scale, and global unemployment screws everyone anyway (assuming climate change hasn't already done so of course.)

And its people like you who have killed our empire, those who chose the easy comfortable life will never make or hole an empire, i dont blame you for it, but moving money around doesnt make anything apart from numbers on a screen, meaningless .
Without production or service everything else becomes worthless.

[DoubleSix]

Username checks out…

[pheonix478]

richhead said:

And its people like you who have killed our empire, those who chose the easy comfortable life will never make or hole an empire, i dont blame you for it, but moving money around doesnt make anything apart from numbers on a screen, meaningless .
Without production or service everything else becomes worthless.

Whilst I agree that any advanced economy must continue it's own manufacturing and not rely solely on the questionable value add of "services", to imagine banking, money, debt and finance didn't play a central part in creating and holding the empire is naive at best.

[Ridgemont]

richhead said:

Ian Geary said:

Easier said than done.
The "West" (ok the UK) was perfectly happy to outsource manufacturing to china and the far east. We no longer have
- high death rates
- poor quality of life
- pollution

From this sector, and we can (in theory) at least, reskill our economy to be high wage high earning service sector. We also get more stuff cheaper than it was, yet alone how expensive it would be if built locally (which isn't even possible anyway).

I'm in finance, and I get to WFH 3 days, have a decent house in a lowish pollution area (ignoring the local airport), and will probably retire after a happy 60 years with 20 good years left. I'd expect my kids to have the same.

Would I swap this for a job in a manufacturing sector where I work 12 gruelling hours a day 6 days a week to live in a workers terrace and die at 60 like my great grandparents did?

Er, no thank you, and I would be flabbergasted if you or anyone replied yes.

The only way I could see the UK voluntary taking manufacturing back is in some sort of dystopian "postman" / "In Time" type future where you work or starve. Needless to say I don't want that either.

No one is going to do it voluntarily, and society (this forum) is such that it will be "someone else" who should do it, but not you.

Or AI automated mfg replaces jobs on a massive scale, and global unemployment screws everyone anyway (assuming climate change hasn't already done so of course.)

And its people like you who have killed our empire, those who chose the easy comfortable life will never make or hole an empire, i dont blame you for it, but moving money around doesnt make anything apart from numbers on a screen, meaningless .
Without production or service everything else becomes worthless.

Not sure what ‘hole an empire’ is but I get your point.

However the world moves on. Manufacturing is not the be all and end all: if you want to be profitable you go where the profit is and that isn’t say ICE manufacturing or ship building. The UK did a good job of positioning itself for chiselling profit out of services (and still does). It has struggled through Brexit and currency depreciation but will no doubt come back: the sheer mass of the city has an effect overtime neverminding fluctuations of the favoured flavour of the day (Fintech, AI etc).

The more interesting point is about attitude. Ian Greary’s comment above points to a more ‘sit back and take it easy’ approach to growth which I suspect ignites your ire and to be honest it is an issue.

As an observation I have Zimbo (Zimbabwe) expat friends who currently are in the UK (for fairly sensible reasons) but have interests back there. They live in a cul de sac in a pleasant English town but the reverse side is that they are also furiously plowing money into uranium deposit investigations in the land they still hold in Zim and are planning massive expansions if lucky.

It’s reflected in Saffers or Aussies I know.

Now on one hand you can say that is absolutely mental especially in the teeth of a voracious local government, but there is also something admirable and brave about it. A sense of entrepreneurship and can do that say Greary above would never dream of. And he would be quite comfortable with that.

But there is a sense that comfortable makes you fat and lazy. And an easy target.

[richhead]

DoubleSix said:

Username checks out…

very clever

[pheonix478]

Ian Geary said:

Easier said than done.
The "West" (ok the UK) was perfectly happy to outsource manufacturing to china and the far east. We no longer have
- high death rates
- poor quality of life
- pollution

From this sector, and we can (in theory) at least, reskill our economy to be high wage high earning service sector. We also get more stuff cheaper than it was, yet alone how expensive it would be if built locally (which isn't even possible anyway).

I'm in finance, and I get to WFH 3 days, have a decent house in a lowish pollution area (ignoring the local airport), and will probably retire after a happy 60 years with 20 good years left. I'd expect my kids to have the same.

Would I swap this for a job in a manufacturing sector where I work 12 gruelling hours a day 6 days a week to live in a workers terrace and die at 60 like my great grandparents did?

Er, no thank you, and I would be flabbergasted if you or anyone replied yes.

The only way I could see the UK voluntary taking manufacturing back is in some sort of dystopian "postman" / "In Time" type future where you work or starve. Needless to say I don't want that either.

No one is going to do it voluntarily, and society (this forum) is such that it will be "someone else" who should do it, but not you.

Or AI automated mfg replaces jobs on a massive scale, and global unemployment screws everyone anyway (assuming climate change hasn't already done so of course.)

For someone in finance you don't seem to understand much about economics. Ignoring the strategic importance of maintaining a manufacturing and production base, this idea that the entire working population can transition to the "knowledge economy" is ridiculous. The guy who greases a welding robot isn't going to start trading commodity futures from his converted warehouse apartment or flouncing around on social media 'influencing' people. You produce more manufactured goods than at almost any time in history. You just do it with fewer people (3m). The US gets it. Manufacturing reshoring is taking off in a big way there now.

[fido]

Yeah, the US only have a manufacturing output of $2.3 trillion. That's double the entire Commonwealth (if it was an empire).

[richhead]

pheonix478 said:

Whilst I agree that any advanced economy must continue it's own manufacturing and not rely solely on the questionable value add of "services", to imagine banking, money, debt and finance didn't play a central part in creating and holding the empire is naive at best.

If bringing new resources into the economy is a naive way of looking at it the yes im naive, i dont see how moving money around makes anything. And often hurts alot of people.
Look at what happened when we relied on other countries gas rather than spending on our own supplies. because it was cheaper, then Ukraine happened.
Look at the last few big recessions, all caused by money men, lack of productivity will be the end of us.
We cant all live in mansions and expect things to just work, we need to make them work.

[Ridgemont]

fido said:

Yeah, the US only have a manufacturing output of $2.3 trillion. That's double the entire Commonwealth (if it was an empire).

Which is all well and good.

Is it profitable? British Leyland was a behemoth at one stage and was pumping out cars no one wanted to buy.

What the UK ought to be focussing on is stuff it can do which no one else can do and, as a result, result in profit. It’s a fairly basic ricardian principle.

Ricardo wasn’t wrong when he laid this all out.

It doesn’t mean squit all if they output 2.3 trillion of manufacturing if the end result is that GM, Ford etc go out of business selling cars no-one wants.

Elon Musk has bet the house on EV. Good on him. He’s facing a state subsidised wall of cash from China.
In the meantime the UK ought to focus on what delivers profits. Ie services and knowledge.