Election 2024 : Likely results
Poll: Election 2024 : Likely results
Total Members Polled: 182
Discussion
I’ve said this from the start but I think Labour will win a majority of around 100 seats and the Tories will scrape far more seats than predicted.
A LOT of seats are on a knife edge for the Tories and I think the Reform threat is a tad overblown. Wheels have come off slightly with Reform lately as they’ve been under more focused scrutiny and they seem to spend a lot of their time fighting off accusations or explaining why something has happened and so I feel that those that sit on the right will hold their nose and tick the Tory box or simply not vote at all.
Also, voter turnout will be key. A low turnout will hurt Labour in achieving a landslide and that’s evident in them playing down their apparent predicted annihilation of the Tories. They need every vote and a bit of tactical voting to achieve what many polls are saying. Voter apathy where people don’t bother to vote, including labour voters, because it’s a foregone conclusion will hurt Labour and cost them seats - not enough to lose but enough make Tories think things aren’t as bad as made out to be.
Libdems will hopefully return to their natural habitat of somewhere between 30-50 seats which is testament to their campaign. National media has largely ignored them but their local campaign machine is first class and tactical voting will help them in a few seats as switched-on Labour voters lend them their votes where Labour can’t realistically win. Also good gives centrist fed up Tories a place to park their vote this time around without feeling too guilty
Greens will get 2. Bristol and Brighton.
SNP will have a bad night and have done the unthinkable and managed to unite Tory and Labour voters in getting rid of them so you’ll see some Tory voters lending their votes to Labour (!) to get them out. They’ve really screwed the pooch north of the border.
Reform will get 3-5 seats. They’ll get a lot of votes but they’re spread too thinly across the country to make any real difference unlike the Libdems who have numerous ‘pockets of power’ that they can rely on. Real question for Reform is what happens after the election but that will depend on the Tories as much as Farage.
That’s my take anyway. Could turn out to be a pile of s
te and Farage gets the keys to No10 but like aholes, everyone has an opinion
A LOT of seats are on a knife edge for the Tories and I think the Reform threat is a tad overblown. Wheels have come off slightly with Reform lately as they’ve been under more focused scrutiny and they seem to spend a lot of their time fighting off accusations or explaining why something has happened and so I feel that those that sit on the right will hold their nose and tick the Tory box or simply not vote at all.
Also, voter turnout will be key. A low turnout will hurt Labour in achieving a landslide and that’s evident in them playing down their apparent predicted annihilation of the Tories. They need every vote and a bit of tactical voting to achieve what many polls are saying. Voter apathy where people don’t bother to vote, including labour voters, because it’s a foregone conclusion will hurt Labour and cost them seats - not enough to lose but enough make Tories think things aren’t as bad as made out to be.
Libdems will hopefully return to their natural habitat of somewhere between 30-50 seats which is testament to their campaign. National media has largely ignored them but their local campaign machine is first class and tactical voting will help them in a few seats as switched-on Labour voters lend them their votes where Labour can’t realistically win. Also good gives centrist fed up Tories a place to park their vote this time around without feeling too guilty
Greens will get 2. Bristol and Brighton.
SNP will have a bad night and have done the unthinkable and managed to unite Tory and Labour voters in getting rid of them so you’ll see some Tory voters lending their votes to Labour (!) to get them out. They’ve really screwed the pooch north of the border.
Reform will get 3-5 seats. They’ll get a lot of votes but they’re spread too thinly across the country to make any real difference unlike the Libdems who have numerous ‘pockets of power’ that they can rely on. Real question for Reform is what happens after the election but that will depend on the Tories as much as Farage.
That’s my take anyway. Could turn out to be a pile of s
te and Farage gets the keys to No10 but like aholes, everyone has an opinion I think Reform voters will go to the Conservatives at the last minute to avoid a Labour landslide but it will be around 100.
More interesting to me is specific seats - I think the Conservatives will retain a seat that is usually marginal and people had written off and Labour will win a seat that was one of the safest 10 for the Tories. I expect lots of surprised candidates on all sides.
More interesting to me is specific seats - I think the Conservatives will retain a seat that is usually marginal and people had written off and Labour will win a seat that was one of the safest 10 for the Tories. I expect lots of surprised candidates on all sides.
Things have a habit of repeating themselves, such as a Parliamentary majority of 80 seats. We could well see that again this time, except in Labour's favour obviously. I think it'll be a little more than that, around 130 I'd say, but it would be (slightly) amusing if Starmer ended up with the same majority as Boris had in 2019. Whether Labour would squander that advantage within one term is another question.
I think the last poll I saw gave Labour 470-482, the Tories 75-85 and there's enough room in the margin for error for the Libs to beat the Tories. Reform's support is in free fall as of the last few days, but they're predicted to win 2 seats.
The bookies odds suggest Labour will win 450-499 seats, they might struggle to fit them all on the same side of the commons.
It all seems a bit too 'much' for the UK, as others have said, I think it all comes down to the disillusioned. I heard a lot of people here and IRL say they're going to spoil their ballot, I don't believe them really, they'll likely just stay at home, but if they do head to the polls, I think they'll sigh and vote for their usual party.
It might be too much of a win for Labour, if the UK puts that much faith in them, and they can't make things tangibly better in the next 5 years, it could swing back again.
The bookies odds suggest Labour will win 450-499 seats, they might struggle to fit them all on the same side of the commons.
It all seems a bit too 'much' for the UK, as others have said, I think it all comes down to the disillusioned. I heard a lot of people here and IRL say they're going to spoil their ballot, I don't believe them really, they'll likely just stay at home, but if they do head to the polls, I think they'll sigh and vote for their usual party.
It might be too much of a win for Labour, if the UK puts that much faith in them, and they can't make things tangibly better in the next 5 years, it could swing back again.
P-Jay said:
I think the last poll I saw gave Labour 470-482, the Tories 75-85 and there's enough room in the margin for error for the Libs to beat the Tories. Reform's support is in free fall as of the last few days, but they're predicted to win 2 seats.
The bookies odds suggest Labour will win 450-499 seats, they might struggle to fit them all on the same side of the commons.
It all seems a bit too 'much' for the UK, as others have said, I think it all comes down to the disillusioned. I heard a lot of people here and IRL say they're going to spoil their ballot, I don't believe them really, they'll likely just stay at home, but if they do head to the polls, I think they'll sigh and vote for their usual party.
It might be too much of a win for Labour, if the UK puts that much faith in them, and they can't make things tangibly better in the next 5 years, it could swing back again.
I have zero confidence in Labour ability to make things better however we need to clean the slate of current Tory partyThe bookies odds suggest Labour will win 450-499 seats, they might struggle to fit them all on the same side of the commons.
It all seems a bit too 'much' for the UK, as others have said, I think it all comes down to the disillusioned. I heard a lot of people here and IRL say they're going to spoil their ballot, I don't believe them really, they'll likely just stay at home, but if they do head to the polls, I think they'll sigh and vote for their usual party.
It might be too much of a win for Labour, if the UK puts that much faith in them, and they can't make things tangibly better in the next 5 years, it could swing back again.
Mr Penguin said:
I think Reform voters will go to the Conservatives at the last minute to avoid a Labour landslide but it will be around 100.
When people are in the booth, with their little pencil in their hand, hovering over Reform, i reckon it will move to the Conservative box instead. Because what people say they will do, and what they actually do are always different things.
Countdown said:
But that completely ignores the impact of reform.It's FPTP. Reform splits the tory vote (mainly, I'm sure there's some impact on labour votes but it's negligible to the effect on the tories)
Bigger the reform vote, the bigger the loss for the torues/gain for labour. It's almost like a multiplier effect.
Without reform, I would have said a 50-100 seat labour lead at most, pitching for the middle of that range.
Now, depending on reform support, 150+ is on the cards, I think.
M.
snuffy said:
When people are in the booth, with their little pencil in their hand, hovering over Reform, i reckon it will move to the Conservative box instead.
Because what people say they will do, and what they actually do are always different things.
I'm not sure it'll help that much, Reform haven taken a huge dive in recent days, but it's not dented Labour's lead. I think the best the Tories can hope for is voter apathy keeping Labour voters from standing in a queue. Because what people say they will do, and what they actually do are always different things.
Anything less than a 200 seat majority seems a long shot at the moment. Frankly, it's probably for the best, 'super majorities' don't really matter in the UK and the Tories are a complete mess, if they manage to pull off a miracle and lose by 50-100 seats they might be tempted to stay as they are and try again in 2029, they might even keep Sunak (he's not really the problem). Really for their sake and the sake of balance in the UK, IMO it's better they're given a proper shoeing and let sensible heads take over, come back as positive thinking, enterprising, opportunity building Tories, not these closed-minded right-wingers trying to sell 'bloke down the pub' ideas.
Sunak is still saying they can win.
valiant said:
Libdems will hopefully return to their natural habitat of somewhere between 30-50 seats which is testament to their campaign. National media has largely ignored them but their local campaign machine is first class and tactical voting will help them in a few seats as switched-on Labour voters lend them their votes where Labour can’t realistically win. Also good gives centrist fed up Tories a place to park their vote this time around without feeling too guilty
Locally we've only heard from the Lib Dems, normally a safe Conservative seat. No Labour or Conservatives campaign at all.
I thought that was Reform?Countdown said:
FWIW I think the "Labour landslide" is massively overblown. I don't think people are voting for SKS, instead i think they're just fed up with the Tories.
I don't.Because it doesn't matter how unenthused the average voter is with Starmer. It is a two party system and one of the parties has imploded.
Voted for Labour majority over 150 and I would like some of whatever those who voted for a Tory majority are on.
sherbertdip said:
No doubt in my mind that Labour will have the majority, but I think it will be closer than the landslide being predicted, Reform will nab votes off both Labour and Conservatives but I think Labour will return only a small majority around 50 seats.
Small majority of 50 seats - crazy times. A Labour majority of just 1 seat will require the biggest voting swing since WW2! JuanCarlosFandango said:
Agreed, I don't know anyone who is enthusiastic about Labour. Realistically though, I don't remember much enthusiasm for any government. Every election I cam remember, which is quite a few now, has been decided by who is least worse.
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