Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

Author
Discussion

Scrump

Original Poster:

22,936 posts

165 months

BrettMRC

4,464 posts

167 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
Interesting BBC article on the Russian glide bombing campaign:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko

You would think the launch aircraft are quite vulnerable in the release phase, so could they can be identified and attacked with long range SAMs?

Adam.

27,951 posts

261 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
BrettMRC said:
Interesting BBC article on the Russian glide bombing campaign:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko

You would think the launch aircraft are quite vulnerable in the release phase, so could they can be identified and attacked with long range SAMs?
How many seconds is their release phase vs SAM time to locate, fire and reach target?

Steve vRS

5,039 posts

248 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
Adam. said:
How many seconds is their release phase vs SAM time to locate, fire and reach target?
Lucky the Ukrainians have good friends with airborne early warning aircraft that should give them a heads up. Especially when they get some fighters in the air with decent air to air missiles.

J4CKO

42,815 posts

207 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
Didnt see any mention of the minesweeper that apparently got sunk,

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/19/i...

Interesting article, basically says that all the remaining two thirds of the black see fleet are likely sitting ducks in Sevastapol. if the Ukrainians are targeting them with their new toys.

I expect a nuke threat by the end of the day, Putin must be hopping mad "Not fair", but I guess stuff like this happening was always an option. Stuff like this is very difficult to replace, built 40/50 years ago

Cheib

23,756 posts

182 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
J4CKO said:
Didnt see any mention of the minesweeper that apparently got sunk,

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/19/i...

Interesting article, basically says that all the remaining two thirds of the black see fleet are likely sitting ducks in Sevastapol. if the Ukrainians are targeting them with their new toys.

I expect a nuke threat by the end of the day, Putin must be hopping mad "Not fair", but I guess stuff like this happening was always an option. Stuff like this is very difficult to replace, built 40/50 years ago
Hadn't seen that either, I thought they'd moved all the remaining ships further East after the submarine was hit by Storm Shadow a few months ago.

Not sure the Kerch Bridge is vulnerable to ATACMS...I think the whole issue about the German missiles is they've got a particular kind of fuse that makes them much more useful against structures.


Biggy Stardust

7,068 posts

51 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
Cheib said:
they've got a particular kind of fuse
Fuze for missiles, fuse for car electrics.

Digga

41,311 posts

290 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
J4CKO said:
I expect a nuke threat by the end of the day
It's good procedure. They don't last long in this weather.

is-uk

1,509 posts

223 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
Ukraine have also sunk a Kalibr cruise missile equipped Corvette in Sevastopol. Reportedly hit and destroyed by two ATACMs. It is one of the newest ships in the Russian navy.

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/179232187195192144...

SlimJim16v

6,107 posts

150 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
BrettMRC said:
Interesting BBC article on the Russian glide bombing campaign:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko

You would think the launch aircraft are quite vulnerable in the release phase, so could they can be identified and attacked with long range SAMs?
They sound like really bad news for Ukraine and they have st loads.

Evanivitch

22,075 posts

129 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
BrettMRC said:
Interesting BBC article on the Russian glide bombing campaign:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko

You would think the launch aircraft are quite vulnerable in the release phase, so could they can be identified and attacked with long range SAMs?
As the article states, Ukrainian ground based air defence is largely used in depth to protect cities and infrastructure. Using it to shoot down aircraft exposes the air defence system and leaves it vulnerable to counter attack.

isaldiri

20,276 posts

175 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
Evanivitch said:
As the article states, Ukrainian ground based air defence is largely used in depth to protect cities and infrastructure. Using it to shoot down aircraft exposes the air defence system and leaves it vulnerable to counter attack.
There were a couple of articles stating that the russians had some success in jamming gps signals on MLRS rockets (obviously doesn't change the inertial navigation dialled in) - would have thought that the yanks might have something available that could do the same on these jdam (more or less?) russian equivalents?

Bright Halo

3,241 posts

242 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
Everything on this battlefield is at least ten years behind current west/nato technology.

cptsideways

13,648 posts

259 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
I reckon the bridge will be hit or down before the end of the month.

Daz68

3,459 posts

217 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
cptsideways said:
I reckon the bridge will be hit or down before the end of the month.
If the bridge ever get's properly destroyed then I reckon the war will go to another level.

Bathroom_Security

3,465 posts

124 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
The general message I'm seeing on social media is that Russia is advancing again and its looking pretty dire for Ukraine, is that the case?

No matter what Western media says about Russia being close to collapse they still advance, regardless of cost to life.

Would love to see some positive news

paulrockliffe

15,998 posts

234 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
Evanivitch said:
BrettMRC said:
Interesting BBC article on the Russian glide bombing campaign:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz5drkr8l1ko

You would think the launch aircraft are quite vulnerable in the release phase, so could they can be identified and attacked with long range SAMs?
As the article states, Ukrainian ground based air defence is largely used in depth to protect cities and infrastructure. Using it to shoot down aircraft exposes the air defence system and leaves it vulnerable to counter attack.
The problem is that the range on those bombs means they can be launched from Russia and Ukraine isn't allowed to use Patriot to attack targets in Russia, because Jake Sullivan is an idiot.

off_again

13,043 posts

241 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
Bathroom_Security said:
The general message I'm seeing on social media is that Russia is advancing again and its looking pretty dire for Ukraine, is that the case?

No matter what Western media says about Russia being close to collapse they still advance, regardless of cost to life.

Would love to see some positive news
Wasnt it just yesterday that Zelensky stated that shell supply is at the best level since the war started? Could be wrong, but it seems that supply is starting to get through. Either that, or they have nothing left to fire them with.

paulrockliffe

15,998 posts

234 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
Bathroom_Security said:
The general message I'm seeing on social media is that Russia is advancing again and its looking pretty dire for Ukraine, is that the case?

No matter what Western media says about Russia being close to collapse they still advance, regardless of cost to life.

Would love to see some positive news
Not really, they've made tiny gains at a rate of about 1,200 men per day. Ukraine is fairly well able to defend, except where they can't attack targets in Russia, which isn't sustainable, but also creates a hard-limit on how far Russia can advance anyway.

On the other hand, 2 ships got flattened this week, Crimea is not tenable for Russia now, the Black Sea Fleet can either stay next to Russia, or be sunk and Ukraine is causing huge economic damage across Russia.

The main issue Ukraine has is that the US don't want Ukraine to lose but don't want Russia to lose either and not enough of Europe is happy to sidestep that stance. Again, this isn't sustainable.

BikeBikeBIke

10,149 posts

122 months

Monday 20th May
quotequote all
Bathroom_Security said:
The general message I'm seeing on social media is that Russia is advancing again and its looking pretty dire for Ukraine, is that the case?

No matter what Western media says about Russia being close to collapse they still advance, regardless of cost to life.

Would love to see some positive news
The latest Times podcast provides some good-ish news.

https://sphinx.acast.com/p/open/s/6583012e715d5300...

The assault on Kharkiv has failed. It has only tied up three Ukrainain brigades and that hasn't been enough to let Russia take Chasiv Yar.

Also check out Anders Puck Neilsons channel. He makes the point thst the Russian plan is likely just a poor plan. In no military manual does it recommend diluting your attack over a broad front. You're supposed to concentrate. The fact experts can't agree what it's supposed to achieve suggests it's just a crap plan.

Finally, by Russians own budget numbers this is peak Russia. Next year military spending will be reduced. Their economy can't sustain this level of war.

So yeah, it all looks bleak, but there's positive news if you look.