Friedman Writes China Off

[BikeBikeBIke]

I've seen plenty of gloomy predictions for China in the last few years. (Gloomy for China, good for Taiwan.)

This from Friedman is really exceptional, however:

https://youtu.be/DLjY502lPtU?si=BK2S0Fz2BwSZnIOL

About 4m30 in.

(I can't find 'the' China thread. If a mod wants to move this post, please do.)

[14]

BikeBikeBIke said:

I've seen plenty of gloomy predictions for China in the last few years. (Gloomy for China, good for Taiwan.)

This from Friedman is really exceptional, however:

https://youtu.be/DLjY502lPtU?si=BK2S0Fz2BwSZnIOL

About 4m30 in.

(I can't find 'the' China thread. If a mod wants to move this post, please do.)

I have no idea who this Friedman is so I don’t know if his opinion carries weight or not. I do think the Chinese economy is going to go into recession though.

[Iamnotkloot]

BikeBikeBIke said:

I've seen plenty of gloomy predictions for China in the last few years. (Gloomy for China, good for Taiwan.)

This from Friedman is really exceptional, however:

https://youtu.be/DLjY502lPtU?si=BK2S0Fz2BwSZnIOL

About 4m30 in.

(I can't find 'the' China thread. If a mod wants to move this post, please do.)

Yeah, an interesting take on it.

[JagLover]

14 said:

I have no idea who this Friedman is so I don’t know if his opinion carries weight or not. I do think the Chinese economy is going to go into recession though.

The Chinese economy is in trouble but he seems a bit excessive in his claims so I gave up watching.

One claim is broadly correct though in that you cannot simultaneously have both an economy dependent on exports and an aggressive foreign policy.

[Ian Geary]

JagLover said:

The Chinese economy is in trouble but he seems a bit excessive in his claims so I gave up watching.

One claim is broadly correct though in that you cannot simultaneously have both an economy dependent on exports and an aggressive foreign policy.

I think China will give it a damn good try - especially as the west has outsourced so much of its manufacturing there and effectively has no choice but the buy their stuff.

We're half heartedly sanctioning Russia, but I can't see Europe and USA consumers going without stuff manufactured in China for even a period of days, yet alone several years.

I feel it would need several years of prolonged, expensive investment. Practically that would mean big rises in taxes, or prices, or raiding wealth, which is basically property, savings or pensions

It would also need planning processss to be over riden, and a big upsurge in energy production, which at this point can only be gas (given coal stations go out of service very quickly)

The nimbys of Britain (and there are a lot, who are also quite politically active) would go absolutely mental, especially those who have overlapping interests of pensions, savings, property wealth and not wanting to pay higher taxes.

Though I'm sure none of those people are on pistonheads.

All of a sudden, just letting china keep making all our stuff sounds less of an issue.....

[carlo996]

Feedback this week from our colleagues is that the economy is ok, but under pressure due to exports.

[GliderRider]

An article yesterday on Linkedin suggested that the 10,000 tonnes of air freight (108 B777 freighters) a day generated by Shein, Temu, Alibaba and TikTok is unsustainable both for the environment and profits.

Chinese air freight

[JagLover]

Ian Geary said:

I think China will give it a damn good try - especially as the west has outsourced so much of its manufacturing there and effectively has no choice but the buy their stuff.

We're half heartedly sanctioning Russia, but I can't see Europe and USA consumers going without stuff manufactured in China for even a period of days, yet alone several years.

I feel it would need several years of prolonged, expensive investment. Practically that would mean big rises in taxes, or prices, or raiding wealth, which is basically property, savings or pensions

It would also need planning processss to be over riden, and a big upsurge in energy production, which at this point can only be gas (given coal stations go out of service very quickly)

The nimbys of Britain (and there are a lot, who are also quite politically active) would go absolutely mental, especially those who have overlapping interests of pensions, savings, property wealth and not wanting to pay higher taxes.

Though I'm sure none of those people are on pistonheads.

All of a sudden, just letting china keep making all our stuff sounds less of an issue.....

While you may be accurate about the average British citizen the reason why the West is scrambling around trying to reduce its dependency on China is precisely because it has a more aggressive foreign policy.

and the process is already well under way, "aggressive" does not necessarily mean "war".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66436582

The USA does not have the same constraints as the UK and is still a reliable base for manufacturing and they have Mexico for the lower value stuff, which has replaced China as their largest trade partner.

[FNG]

Ian Geary said:

I think China will give it a damn good try - especially as the west has outsourced so much of its manufacturing there and effectively has no choice but the buy their stuff.

We're half heartedly sanctioning Russia, but I can't see Europe and USA consumers going without stuff manufactured in China for even a period of days, yet alone several years.

I feel it would need several years of prolonged, expensive investment. Practically that would mean big rises in taxes, or prices, or raiding wealth, which is basically property, savings or pensions

It would also need planning processss to be over riden, and a big upsurge in energy production, which at this point can only be gas (given coal stations go out of service very quickly)

The nimbys of Britain (and there are a lot, who are also quite politically active) would go absolutely mental, especially those who have overlapping interests of pensions, savings, property wealth and not wanting to pay higher taxes.

Though I'm sure none of those people are on pistonheads.

All of a sudden, just letting china keep making all our stuff sounds less of an issue.....

Cheap tat when I was a kid was "make in hong kong".

Then it was "made in Korea".

Now it's "made in China".

Next it might be "made in Vietnam".

The choice isn't binary between UK and China. The ship sailed on home manufacturing of cheap mass produced crap decades ago.