Assaults on Commercial Shipping

[pequod]

Sadly, the attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea has stepped up, courtesy of the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in the Yemen, in retaliation for the war in Gaza, apparently.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/msc-di...

The sea area in the Gulf of Aden has been a target against shipping for years, so it's no surprise this escalation is being reported.

Going the long way round Africa adds cost, and timescale, so I imagine many will be impacted by late delivery?

[steveatesh]

I saw on the lunchtime news that HMS Diamond has shot a drone down aimed at shipping…. Didn’t see the fully story just the rolling ticker. I imagine it’s the Red Sea area.

[cuprabob]

steveatesh said:

I saw on the lunchtime news that HMS Diamond has shot a drone down aimed at shipping…. Didn’t see the fully story just the rolling ticker. I imagine it’s the Red Sea area.

It was,

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67738032.amp

[dudleybloke]

Only more to come I think unfortunately.

[pequod]

steveatesh said:

I saw on the lunchtime news that HMS Diamond has shot a drone down aimed at shipping…. Didn’t see the fully story just the rolling ticker. I imagine it’s the Red Sea area.

Yep, the Red Sea approached from the Gulf of Aden. The old attacks on shipping by dhow from either Yemen or Somalia, passing through the Gulf, has been usurped by use of drones, apparently.

[SlimJim16v]

It's said to affect 10% of the world's shipping. So another price increase on goods.

[pequod]

These attacks are not going to stop any time soon, so it seems....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67932...

[JagLover]

The West is looking very weak IMO in not being firmer. Freedom of the seas is a fundamental part of the international order and most of the vessels targeted have nothing to do with Israel as far as I am aware.

[Martin_Hx]

JagLover said:

The West is looking very weak IMO in not being firmer. Freedom of the seas is a fundamental part of the international order and most of the vessels targeted have nothing to do with Israel as far as I am aware.

What? You mean pointing a finger at them and telling them not to continue with the attacks isnt enough?

[Oliver Hardy]

Martin_Hx said:

What? You mean pointing a finger at them and telling them not to continue with the attacks isnt enough?

But most of the shipsare not western ships (although the shipping companies probably are) the ships are flaged in places like Panama, Liberia, Marshall Islands.

[eharding]

Martin_Hx said:

JagLover said:

The West is looking very weak IMO in not being firmer. Freedom of the seas is a fundamental part of the international order and most of the vessels targeted have nothing to do with Israel as far as I am aware.

What? You mean pointing a finger at them and telling them not to continue with the attacks isnt enough?

Well, that and shooting down all of the Houthi drones and missiles that appear, as well as yeeting a few of their boats and crews into chunks.

How "firm" do you want?

[Earthdweller]

Oliver Hardy said:

Martin_Hx said:

What? You mean pointing a finger at them and telling them not to continue with the attacks isnt enough?

But most of the shipsare not western ships (although the shipping companies probably are) the ships are flaged in places like Panama, Liberia, Marshall Islands.

But they are transporting goods which are vital to the West

Almost all container shipping is now avoiding the Suez Canal and that is adding serious delays and costs

It is only a matter of time before that starts impacting on western economies and let’s face it the US nor U.K. need inflationary spikes in an election year

It’s also affecting the Eygptian economy as some of these ships could easily be paying $1m USD to transit the canal

[JagLover]

eharding said:

Well, that and shooting down all of the Houthi drones and missiles that appear, as well as yeeting a few of their boats and crews into chunks.

How "firm" do you want?

They are launching missiles, and drone planes and boats, targeting commercial shipping so a bit more than a stern letter.

[isaldiri]

JagLover said:

eharding said:

Well, that and shooting down all of the Houthi drones and missiles that appear, as well as yeeting a few of their boats and crews into chunks.

How "firm" do you want?

They are launching missiles, and drone planes and boats, targeting commercial shipping so a bit more than a stern letter.

Well you were the one saying they needed to be firmer. What else should be done to achieve the latter then? invading yemen?

[pequod]

An interesting article from DW into the politics of the region and why the Arab nations are reluctant to send their naval resources to join the US led protection force.

https://www.dw.com/en/red-sea-attacks-why-arab-nat...

[eharding]

isaldiri said:

JagLover said:

eharding said:

Well, that and shooting down all of the Houthi drones and missiles that appear, as well as yeeting a few of their boats and crews into chunks.

How "firm" do you want?

They are launching missiles, and drone planes and boats, targeting commercial shipping so a bit more than a stern letter.

Well you were the one saying they needed to be firmer. What else should be done to achieve the latter then? invading yemen?

Don't be silly - just repeatedly carpet bombing all Houthi-held territory with massed formations of B-52s and - just to be on the safe side - nuking a couple of Iranian drone factories should do the trick. Nothing OTT.

[hidetheelephants]

Earthdweller said:

Oliver Hardy said:

Martin_Hx said:

What? You mean pointing a finger at them and telling them not to continue with the attacks isnt enough?

But most of the shipsare not western ships (although the shipping companies probably are) the ships are flaged in places like Panama, Liberia, Marshall Islands.

But they are transporting goods which are vital to the West

Almost all container shipping is now avoiding the Suez Canal and that is adding serious delays and costs

It is only a matter of time before that starts impacting on western economies and let’s face it the US nor U.K. need inflationary spikes in an election year

It’s also affecting the Eygptian economy as some of these ships could easily be paying $1m USD to transit the canal

Insurers are sheep, as are the politicians in charge; the risk is about what it was a fortnight ago.

[fido]

JagLover said:

[They are launching missiles, and drone planes and boats, targeting commercial shipping so a bit more than a stern letter.

Yemen have been funding pirates for over a decade - so it's not a new problem - and there is already a Combined Task Force. But you make a valid point - they are using better weapons so maybe the response needs to be bit more direct i.e. hit them before they attack inside their territorial waters.

[pequod]

fido said:

JagLover said:

[They are launching missiles, and drone planes and boats, targeting commercial shipping so a bit more than a stern letter.

Yemen have been funding pirates for over a decade - so it's not a new problem - and there is already a Combined Task Force. But you make a valid point - they are using better weapons so maybe the response needs to be bit more direct i.e. hit them before they attack inside their territorial waters.

A direct response by the US led protection force would drag us all into the wider conflict in the ME, which is probably what the sponsors of the Houthi want, dontcha think?

[eharding]

pequod said:

fido said:

JagLover said:

[They are launching missiles, and drone planes and boats, targeting commercial shipping so a bit more than a stern letter.

Yemen have been funding pirates for over a decade - so it's not a new problem - and there is already a Combined Task Force. But you make a valid point - they are using better weapons so maybe the response needs to be bit more direct i.e. hit them before they attack inside their territorial waters.

A direct response by the US led protection force would drag us all into the wider conflict in the ME, which is probably what the sponsors of the Houthi want, dontcha think?

Not to mention that operating a free-fire zone in Yemeni territorial waters against dodgy looking boats is going to result in a lot of dead Yemeni fishermen as well as a few armed rebels.

The current US rules of engagement under which the three rebel boats were sunk on the 31st Dec by USN MH-60 helicopters seemed up to the job - reports are that the boats fired on the helicopters and in turn three of the boats got a Hellfire in the face for their troubles (granted, the MH-60s could see they were being fired at by heavy crew-served weapons on the boats using FLIR sensors from *10 miles away*, well outside the effective range of the Houthi heavy machine guns, but in that part of the world at the moment firing on an armed US aircraft from any distance is setting yourself up for a Darwin award).

In principle I'd guess it would be possible to swamp the Houthi-controlled coastal areas with US drone surveillance to try and identify Houthi launch sites as they are being set up and proactively snot them, but then they'll just be set up in the middle of junior schools, puppy farms and places of worship, the snotting of which would be problematic, to say the least.

Edited by eharding on Wednesday 10th January 17:24