Polish Elections - light at the end of the tunnel

[skwdenyer]

In the exit poll in the Polish elections, it was found:

PiS: 36.6%
Tusk’s Civic Coalition: 31%
Third Way: 13.5%
Lewica: 8.6%

In the UK, PiS would win 100% of the power with just 1/3 of support (these numbers are similar to our 2015 GE).

In Poland there will likely be a coalition representing just over 50% of the vote, representing the majority of voters.

This is why we need PR in the UK. And, for Europe, good news that another hard-right movement looks to have been bested.

[Oliver Hardy]

Replaced by a crook.

In Germany they have PR, yet they are pressing ahead with things like air heaters and electric vehicles despite opposition from the people, something like 74% of the people in a poll oppose the law on heat pump heating, yet it is pushed through. Result seems to be the same whatever the system.

[isaldiri]

PR in Israel also delivered the most far right government ever with a security minister having been convicted of supporting a terror group and racism so it's not exactly the panacea as it's regularly made out to be.......

[Earthdweller]

PR is likely to put Sinn-Fein IRA in Govt in Ireland at the next election .. they are far from moderate!

At the moment a bunch of loons with a handful of seats in their Parliament and 4% of the national vote are key to holding the current coalition together

The other two parties are terrified of the prospect of the coalition collapsing and the green loons are running the roost

Consequently Eamon Ryan a complete fruitcake is King maker

PR is far from a Nirvana

[skwdenyer]

Oliver Hardy said:

Replaced by a crook.

In Germany they have PR, yet they are pressing ahead with things like air heaters and electric vehicles despite opposition from the people, something like 74% of the people in a poll oppose the law on heat pump heating, yet it is pushed through. Result seems to be the same whatever the system.

People don't tend to vote for taxes, either, but they happen The measure of a system is whether there is representation. PR provides it.

[skwdenyer]

Earthdweller said:

PR is likely to put Sinn-Fein IRA in Govt in Ireland at the next election .. they are far from moderate!

At the moment a bunch of loons with a handful of seats in their Parliament and 4% of the national vote are key to holding the current coalition together

The other two parties are terrified of the prospect of the coalition collapsing and the green loons are running the roost

Consequently Eamon Ryan a complete fruitcake is King maker

PR is far from a Nirvana

I'm constantly surprised at how people find compromise problematic, and pretend that "strong leadership" of itself leads to great results. It doesn't.

What you call "green loons" are - to most - the sort of people upon whom the fate of the planet rests What are Ryan's "fruitcake" policies?

[skwdenyer]

isaldiri said:

PR in Israel also delivered the most far right government ever with a security minister having been convicted of supporting a terror group and racism so it's not exactly the panacea as it's regularly made out to be.......

Do you think the current Israeli Govt is more or less representative of the people of the country than it would be under a different political system?

[Vanden Saab]

skwdenyer said:

Oliver Hardy said:

Replaced by a crook.

In Germany they have PR, yet they are pressing ahead with things like air heaters and electric vehicles despite opposition from the people, something like 74% of the people in a poll oppose the law on heat pump heating, yet it is pushed through. Result seems to be the same whatever the system.

People don't tend to vote for taxes, either, but they happen The measure of a system is whether there is representation. PR provides it.

A different system of voting is always better when you are usually on the losing side. Pr would most likely give you a tory, ukip ish party coalition in the uk or even an outright majority for the tories as there would be no need for strategic voting.

[CoolHands]

I think all of it’s a scam, a bit like busy work - just keep the people thinking their vote matters. It makes no difference

[isaldiri]

skwdenyer said:

Do you think the current Israeli Govt is more or less representative of the people of the country than it would be under a different political system?

PR allows for extreme/marginal voices who manage to shout loudest to hold a disproportionate amount of power in government. Do you believe that to be a good thing? PR might well be the lesser of 2 evils but I don't think it's entirely obvious whether it necessarily is always a good thing as you are suggesting.

[Vanden Saab]

As an example in Scotland taking the 2019 election figures instead of 48 seats the snp would have 27
The tories instead of 6 seats would have 15
Labour instead of 1 would have 10
And the lib dems rather than 4 would have 6.
All figure are approximate...

[E63eeeeee...]

Vanden Saab said:

skwdenyer said:

Oliver Hardy said:

Replaced by a crook.

In Germany they have PR, yet they are pressing ahead with things like air heaters and electric vehicles despite opposition from the people, something like 74% of the people in a poll oppose the law on heat pump heating, yet it is pushed through. Result seems to be the same whatever the system.

People don't tend to vote for taxes, either, but they happen The measure of a system is whether there is representation. PR provides it.

A different system of voting is always better when you are usually on the losing side. Pr would most likely give you a tory, ukip ish party coalition in the uk or even an outright majority for the tories as there would be no need for strategic voting.

How do you work that out? When did the Tory vote plus the UKIP equivalent last add up to over 50%?

I'd agree that you can't directly transfer FPTP results to a new system and assume they'd be allocated in the same way, but nor can you just take one factor and assume that would be the only change.

[JagLover]

Poland's government might be a bit too restrictive on social policy for my tastes but they have presided over strong growth and expanded social spending. They have also not been squeezing their citizens in the name of net zero and tax rates are low as well.

So the question becomes light at the end of tunnel for whom?

Edited by JagLover on Monday 16th October 18:38

[Mr Whippy]

Earthdweller said:

PR is likely to put Sinn-Fein IRA in Govt in Ireland at the next election .. they are far from moderate!

At the moment a bunch of loons with a handful of seats in their Parliament and 4% of the national vote are key to holding the current coalition together

The other two parties are terrified of the prospect of the coalition collapsing and the green loons are running the roost

Consequently Eamon Ryan a complete fruitcake is King maker

PR is far from a Nirvana

But people can see their vote has an impact, so likely vote more conscientiously in future.

Better for society to get what they want, good and bad, and see they have a choice and control.
Or to not really have control and essentially get what they’re given… which in our case, and the USAs case, is just two different flavours of the same thing.


I’d go for the former every day of the week… but I’m a true liberal.

[Vanden Saab]

E63eeeeee... said:

Vanden Saab said:

skwdenyer said:

Oliver Hardy said:

Replaced by a crook.

In Germany they have PR, yet they are pressing ahead with things like air heaters and electric vehicles despite opposition from the people, something like 74% of the people in a poll oppose the law on heat pump heating, yet it is pushed through. Result seems to be the same whatever the system.

People don't tend to vote for taxes, either, but they happen The measure of a system is whether there is representation. PR provides it.

A different system of voting is always better when you are usually on the losing side. Pr would most likely give you a tory, ukip ish party coalition in the uk or even an outright majority for the tories as there would be no need for strategic voting.

How do you work that out? When did the Tory vote plus the UKIP equivalent last add up to over 50%?

I'd agree that you can't directly transfer FPTP results to a new system and assume they'd be allocated in the same way, but nor can you just take one factor and assume that would be the only change.

How many conservatives vote for another party in areas where their candidate has no chance of winning? I have given you actual figures for Scotland. It might be even higher for the tories under PR. Nobody knows...
Just because the tories 'only' got 43.6% under fptp does not necessarily mean they would not get more under PR.

[E63eeeeee...]

Vanden Saab said:

E63eeeeee... said:

Vanden Saab said:

skwdenyer said:

Oliver Hardy said:

Replaced by a crook.

In Germany they have PR, yet they are pressing ahead with things like air heaters and electric vehicles despite opposition from the people, something like 74% of the people in a poll oppose the law on heat pump heating, yet it is pushed through. Result seems to be the same whatever the system.

People don't tend to vote for taxes, either, but they happen The measure of a system is whether there is representation. PR provides it.

A different system of voting is always better when you are usually on the losing side. Pr would most likely give you a tory, ukip ish party coalition in the uk or even an outright majority for the tories as there would be no need for strategic voting.

How do you work that out? When did the Tory vote plus the UKIP equivalent last add up to over 50%?

I'd agree that you can't directly transfer FPTP results to a new system and assume they'd be allocated in the same way, but nor can you just take one factor and assume that would be the only change.

How many conservatives vote for another party in areas where their candidate has no chance of winning? I have given you actual figures for Scotland. It might be even higher for the tories under PR. Nobody knows...
Just because the tories 'only' got 43.6% under fptp does not necessarily mean they would not get more under PR.

Do you think that only Tory voters do tactical voting? Presumably you're assuming they all vote LibDem. I can't be bothered to go trawling through the stats to check, but at a cursory glance I think you're suggesting that around half or more of the LibDem vote is tactical Tory voters. Presumably that half of the LD vote are concentrated in the Labour vs. LibDem marginals. Spoiler: there are hardly any Labour vs. LibDem marginals.

Here's some polling that suggests that even if the LDs didn't exist, there's twice as many potential Labour votes as Tory ones among the LD support. https://www.bestforbritain.org/mythbustedlibdemlab..., but I'm assuming the LDs don't magically disappear under PR anyway, so most LD voters probably still vote LD.

So, not sure your thesis stacks up here, even based on the data we have.

I'm also not sure where you've given actual figures for tactical voting in Scotland, but it doesn't seem to be on this thread.

Like I said, you can't just focus on one factor and predict the result from that. You also need to factor in other effects, like impact on turnout, emergence of new parties (given the fact that both of the main parties seem to effectively be at least two parties only held together by FPTP)...

[turbobloke]

isaldiri said:

PR in Israel also delivered the most far right government ever with a security minister having been convicted of supporting a terror group and racism so it's not exactly the panacea as it's regularly made out to be.......

Quite right, the OP is way off the mark with the claimed 'benefits' of PR, which the UK electorate won't vote for anyway (I'll put a shilling on it) and as such it's still academic. It's not far off the political equivalent of a designer camel which was meant to be a racehorse.

[turbobloke]

CoolHands said:

I think all of it’s a scam, a bit like busy work - just keep the people thinking their vote matters. It makes no difference

ISWYM, but it's OK to me if small minority fanactics are kept well out, it's bad enough when so-called mainstream non-fanatics get elected.

[Oliver Hardy]

skwdenyer said:

Earthdweller said:

PR is likely to put Sinn-Fein IRA in Govt in Ireland at the next election .. they are far from moderate!

At the moment a bunch of loons with a handful of seats in their Parliament and 4% of the national vote are key to holding the current coalition together

The other two parties are terrified of the prospect of the coalition collapsing and the green loons are running the roost

Consequently Eamon Ryan a complete fruitcake is King maker

PR is far from a Nirvana

I'm constantly surprised at how people find compromise problematic, and pretend that "strong leadership" of itself leads to great results. It doesn't.

What you call "green loons" are - to most - the sort of people upon whom the fate of the planet rests What are Ryan's "fruitcake" policies?

I'm constantly surprised at how people find that people who want PR believe they wil be represented better,.

Maybe your right and the fate of the planet does rest on these greens, but they are minority parties with a lot of power.

[grumbledoak]

CoolHands said:

I think all of it’s a scam, a bit like busy work - just keep the people thinking their vote matters. It makes no difference

^^^ that. A bit of a show every five years and then back to the plan.