No Brexit, No Covid-19, No Ukraine war - Where would we be?
Discussion
If my aunty had balls, she’d be my uncle…
I do think we are still in the early stage of the consequences of the Covid response.
The interest rate rises to stop the inflation havent even kicked in hard yet. And the inflation still isn’t under control. The economy is running on the fumes of all of the Covid era stimulus.
The City of London is still a ghost town most of the time. Surely the value of the offices will crater at some point, and surely it will end up with another wave of offshoring high value jobs.
The NHS is also creaking at the seams post Covid.
I do think we are still in the early stage of the consequences of the Covid response.
The interest rate rises to stop the inflation havent even kicked in hard yet. And the inflation still isn’t under control. The economy is running on the fumes of all of the Covid era stimulus.
The City of London is still a ghost town most of the time. Surely the value of the offices will crater at some point, and surely it will end up with another wave of offshoring high value jobs.
The NHS is also creaking at the seams post Covid.
Edited by globaltraveller on Thursday 7th September 12:26
I'd be much poorer - to the tune of hundreds of thousands - as I assist businesses dealing with red tape and setting up abroad and the number of people operating businesses in the EU has simply rocketed since Brexit.
As a country I think we'd be in a similar, but slightly better off, position than we are now.
As a country I think we'd be in a similar, but slightly better off, position than we are now.
Similar to the above; it's no exaggeration to say my career was salvaged by Brexit, due to the resultant explosion of what was effectively damage limitation work in my industry. I believe it was a disaster for the country, but paradoxically it saved my skin. It's a weird feeling, actually.
Well there wouldn't have been the 2017 and 2019 General Elections. So my guess is that there would have been one in 2020 (5 years after the last "proper" one in 2015), in which David Cameron would have won a third term, given that Labour would have likely still been led (disastrously) by Jeremy Corbyn.
Then I would speculate that a restless Boris Johnson would have been demanding the top job off of Dave, and there would have been a change of Prime Minister mid-term in the fashion of Blair handing over to Brown. So that would have happened about late 2022/early 2023. We would be currently experiencing the early days and honeymoon period of a very different kind of Boris Johnson Premiership - one in which the spectre of leaving the EU would have been banished, and with a stable economic outlook in view, and no Covid related scandals to plague him. I think he would have changed his suit to match the prevailing winds, as he did when he doubled down on "Get Brexit Done" to win the 2019 election in the world as it is - i.e. he'd shut up about Europe, and would have been a far more "One Nation" type of Tory leader than the hard right comedy ogre he turned out to be once the Brexit referendum had been won. Boris didn't truly believe in Brexit - remember the 2 letters? Remember his staunch support for EU membership before the referendum was made flesh? He'd have quietly reverted to that type had there been a Remain vote, as indeed have many Tories made the journey from Remainer to Leaver since the vote in the real world went against them, in order to further their careers in government.
In the world as it is today, I am implacably opposed to the Tory party in its current form, and all its ludicrous policies and disasters, and representatives. However, as a former Tory voter pre-2010, I think I'd probably be reasonably happy with the speculative situation I describe above.
And on a personal note, I'd probably be in an overcrowded, stinky office building in Basingstoke, rather than enjoying working at home and saving fortunes on commuting, and loads of time too.
Then I would speculate that a restless Boris Johnson would have been demanding the top job off of Dave, and there would have been a change of Prime Minister mid-term in the fashion of Blair handing over to Brown. So that would have happened about late 2022/early 2023. We would be currently experiencing the early days and honeymoon period of a very different kind of Boris Johnson Premiership - one in which the spectre of leaving the EU would have been banished, and with a stable economic outlook in view, and no Covid related scandals to plague him. I think he would have changed his suit to match the prevailing winds, as he did when he doubled down on "Get Brexit Done" to win the 2019 election in the world as it is - i.e. he'd shut up about Europe, and would have been a far more "One Nation" type of Tory leader than the hard right comedy ogre he turned out to be once the Brexit referendum had been won. Boris didn't truly believe in Brexit - remember the 2 letters? Remember his staunch support for EU membership before the referendum was made flesh? He'd have quietly reverted to that type had there been a Remain vote, as indeed have many Tories made the journey from Remainer to Leaver since the vote in the real world went against them, in order to further their careers in government.
In the world as it is today, I am implacably opposed to the Tory party in its current form, and all its ludicrous policies and disasters, and representatives. However, as a former Tory voter pre-2010, I think I'd probably be reasonably happy with the speculative situation I describe above.
And on a personal note, I'd probably be in an overcrowded, stinky office building in Basingstoke, rather than enjoying working at home and saving fortunes on commuting, and loads of time too.
Edited by Bannock on Thursday 7th September 14:42
Bannock said:
Is that the Nigel Farage who has never been elected to Parliament in 7 or 8 attempts? I'm not seeing it.
it's a thought experiment. He would have made a lot of hay out of a very narrow victory for remain. There would be cries of foul, 'only won because the government backed it' etc, etc. The anti-EU press would have had a field day with 'no mandate' headlines. Both Cons and Labour suffer huge splits (for the Tories it's the 'big business' lot v the far right loons and for Labour the 'big city elite v old school union types). Meanwhile, the Lib Dems suffer from being the part most closely tied to 'denying the will of the people'.UKIP are now more relevant than ever.They surge up the polls giving Farage a seat in parliament where his party's support is courted by the two broken parties looking for a coalition. He most likely chooses the Tories on the proviso that he gets one of the big jobs (Home sec maybe?). He also insists on a date being set for another ref. When that fails to materialise he uses it to garner support from the far right of the party and stages a soft coup.
TTwiggy said:
Bannock said:
Is that the Nigel Farage who has never been elected to Parliament in 7 or 8 attempts? I'm not seeing it.
it's a thought experiment. He would have made a lot of hay out of a very narrow victory for remain. There would be cries of foul, 'only won because the government backed it' etc, etc. The anti-EU press would have had a field day with 'no mandate' headlines. Both Cons and Labour suffer huge splits (for the Tories it's the 'big business' lot v the far right loons and for Labour the 'big city elite v old school union types). Meanwhile, the Lib Dems suffer from being the part most closely tied to 'denying the will of the people'.UKIP are now more relevant than ever.They surge up the polls giving Farage a seat in parliament where his party's support is courted by the two broken parties looking for a coalition. He most likely chooses the Tories on the proviso that he gets one of the big jobs (Home sec maybe?). He also insists on a date being set for another ref. When that fails to materialise he uses it to garner support from the far right of the party and stages a soft coup.
The government needs "crisis" to remain relevant, retain control and instil fear of something. The global warming would now be in full swing, telling us how we are going to boil alive as we shiver through July and August. Then the usual NHS.
Would we be better off? Well we wouldn't have had the disaster of Liz Truss so yes.
Someone above said Cameron would have carried on which he would although he screwed himself due to the Brexit vote decision he did based on misplaced fear of Farage.
Would we be better off? Well we wouldn't have had the disaster of Liz Truss so yes.
Someone above said Cameron would have carried on which he would although he screwed himself due to the Brexit vote decision he did based on misplaced fear of Farage.
DaveTheRave87 said:
I just think we'd be in the middle of some other crisis.
The NHS would still act like they're on the brink of disaster.
We'd all hate the Government for some other reason and we'd all be miserable.
Yep. It's all just smoke and mirrors, none of it matters. Some people are winners, some are losers. Nothing ever changes. Just as now people are blaming their predicament on Brexit, Tories, or whatever, then in your hypothetical scenario the same people would be blaming the EU or Labour.The NHS would still act like they're on the brink of disaster.
We'd all hate the Government for some other reason and we'd all be miserable.
DaveTheRave87 said:
I just think we'd be in the middle of some other crisis.
The NHS would still act like they're on the brink of disaster.
We'd all hate the Government for some other reason and we'd all be miserable.
Maybe I just didnt care enough, but what were the big crisis's before Brexit? I know some people apparently could sleep because of the EU or something.The NHS would still act like they're on the brink of disaster.
We'd all hate the Government for some other reason and we'd all be miserable.
2008 was a bit of a weird one that I don't seem to remember everyone laying blame solely on the government, more regulatory bodies (yes links and all that), but it felt like we came out of that relatively okay.
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