Put brakes on damaging 2030 ICE ban
Discussion
Regardless of the source they are just pointing out the obvious.
The EU's ban doesn't start until 2035. We don't have currently the charging infrastructure, the electricity generation capacity, nor the vehicles (in terms of cost and range) for a 2030 cut off.
It was imposed during that period when trillions of uncosted spending commitments could be imposed with little concern. Reality started to dawn last year on that front and people decided they were very concerned about energy costs after all.
The EU's ban doesn't start until 2035. We don't have currently the charging infrastructure, the electricity generation capacity, nor the vehicles (in terms of cost and range) for a 2030 cut off.
It was imposed during that period when trillions of uncosted spending commitments could be imposed with little concern. Reality started to dawn last year on that front and people decided they were very concerned about energy costs after all.
PastelNata said:
The UK can indeed push it back to 2035 but beyond that it is largely out of its control.
Car manufacturers are switching to EV regardless of UK policy and so new ICE will simply be unavailable when they stop making them. Endgame for ICE won’t be stopped or even slowed much now.
Car manufacturers are switching to EV regardless of UK policy and so new ICE will simply be unavailable when they stop making them. Endgame for ICE won’t be stopped or even slowed much now.
Noone in the west is looking to an ICE future. When Ford has ended Fiesta production you know the writing is on the wall.In the case of the Mail, they're just desperate to avoid talking about the real issue:
Edited by glazbagun on Monday 3rd July 07:54
glazbagun said:
PastelNata said:
The UK can indeed push it back to 2035 but beyond that it is largely out of its control.
Car manufacturers are switching to EV regardless of UK policy and so new ICE will simply be unavailable when they stop making them. Endgame for ICE won’t be stopped or even slowed much now.
Car manufacturers are switching to EV regardless of UK policy and so new ICE will simply be unavailable when they stop making them. Endgame for ICE won’t be stopped or even slowed much now.
Noone in the west is looking to an ICE future. When Ford has ended Fiesta production you know the writing is on the wall.A smaller new car market ( by as much as 50%) is simply not sustainable for vehicle manufacturers. It still costs billions to develop a car, and so they are going to need significant volumes to fund that development.
Dynion Araf Uchaf said:
if no one is buying EV's, or at least if the sales rate of EV's is significantly less than the 2m registrations per year hey day for ICE, then the OEM's will be requesting a stay of execution for ICE.
A smaller new car market ( by as much as 50%) is simply not sustainable for vehicle manufacturers. It still costs billions to develop a car, and so they are going to need significant volumes to fund that development.
Then the equation will change, thats all. The UK market is a bit part player in the overall EU market, never mind the Global one. UK might choose to change its legislation, but moving the date back doesn't change the destination and if all the major EU makers and suppliers to the EU market (including us in that context) aren't making ICE cars for the EU market, it doesn't matter at all what the UK decides to do legislatively. Who's going to have anything to sell us? Other than maybe the very low volume premium brands. A smaller new car market ( by as much as 50%) is simply not sustainable for vehicle manufacturers. It still costs billions to develop a car, and so they are going to need significant volumes to fund that development.
UK could alter its rules for type approval to enable ICE models built to rest of world standards and by rest of world brands I suppose, so they could be sold here.
A future of American, African and Asian market ICE models rather than shiny new EU spec BMW's, Stellantis, Mercedes, VW could be the norm?
The other way to mitigate the billions mentioned on new car development is simply you end up with much longer production cycles and materially less complicated cars that make the manufacturers numbers stack up again. What we want as consumers then really is irrelevant because there won't be enough money to get them to market. But then, we only buy what we are sold, so we probably won't even notice as they'll be marketed to us differently.
biggles330d said:
Then the equation will change, thats all. The UK market is a bit part player in the overall EU market, never mind the Global one. UK might choose to change its legislation, but moving the date back doesn't change the destination
Perhaps not, but 2035 is likely going to be significantly better than 2030 for the motoring public now as well as for the economy. I think there's a bit of life left in ICE yet. If we are behind on infrastructure, charging capacity and take up of EVs how are they doing in Asia, Africa, Middle East and South America?
It was always a stupid idea, trotted out as a "bold" statement by politicians who were never going to be around when it was implemented. Now it is becoming a reality it will be dropped.
It was always a stupid idea, trotted out as a "bold" statement by politicians who were never going to be around when it was implemented. Now it is becoming a reality it will be dropped.
You will still be able to buy new cars which run on petrol in 2031. They will just be hybrid ones, rather than pure ICE.
They seem a better solution to me anyway. Toyota have proven over many years that they can be extremely reliable despite the additional complexity, and you get the benefits of rapid refuelling and near-zero local emissions in town driving.
They seem a better solution to me anyway. Toyota have proven over many years that they can be extremely reliable despite the additional complexity, and you get the benefits of rapid refuelling and near-zero local emissions in town driving.
JagLover said:
Regardless of the source they are just pointing out the obvious.
The EU's ban doesn't start until 2035. We don't have currently the charging infrastructure, the electricity generation capacity, nor the vehicles (in terms of cost and range) for a 2030 cut off.
It was imposed during that period when trillions of uncosted spending commitments could be imposed with little concern. Reality started to dawn last year on that front and people decided they were very concerned about energy costs after all.
We have the electricity generation capacity, it would just mean running underutilised gas units for more hours/annum. The EU's ban doesn't start until 2035. We don't have currently the charging infrastructure, the electricity generation capacity, nor the vehicles (in terms of cost and range) for a 2030 cut off.
It was imposed during that period when trillions of uncosted spending commitments could be imposed with little concern. Reality started to dawn last year on that front and people decided they were very concerned about energy costs after all.
xstian said:
I see the DM is still doing it's job then.
Squirrel anyone?
Telegraph too?Squirrel anyone?
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegrap...
Actually just pointing out the fact that the 2030 target is unrealistic. EV sales so far being largely to the wealthy and those who get tax breaks buying through their employer.
Tax breaks are not affordable once EVs are mass market.
Its the DM, its for older folk who dont like change (plus rich people, poor people, fat people, immigrants etc), and EV's are change.
They are all suddenly concerned about the environment after decades of driving Petrol and Diesel, having never even given it a thought in the past so it doesn't ring true.
ICE is a dead duck, its reached the end of the road, we need to be honest with ourselves here, nobody will be making ICE vehicles apart from niche uses in 20 years, very few will be driving them, whether the ICE ban shifts a bit wont change that by much.
Hydrogen, synthetic fuels etc arent happening in any meaningful numbers.
So, folk can get all self congratulatory over any small crumb they find about the party carrying on, it really isnt is it ?
I wont be buying an EV, really doesn't grab me at all as a petrolhead but lets not pretend this isnt happening.
They are all suddenly concerned about the environment after decades of driving Petrol and Diesel, having never even given it a thought in the past so it doesn't ring true.
ICE is a dead duck, its reached the end of the road, we need to be honest with ourselves here, nobody will be making ICE vehicles apart from niche uses in 20 years, very few will be driving them, whether the ICE ban shifts a bit wont change that by much.
Hydrogen, synthetic fuels etc arent happening in any meaningful numbers.
So, folk can get all self congratulatory over any small crumb they find about the party carrying on, it really isnt is it ?
I wont be buying an EV, really doesn't grab me at all as a petrolhead but lets not pretend this isnt happening.
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