What happens when fossil fuels run out?
Discussion
The society and standard of living we enjoy today would not exist without fossil fuels. The industrial revolution, capitalism, the Green revolution, the internet, advanced medicine. None of that would have been possible without a seemingly endless, cheap supply of energy.
Why do we have a high standard of living? In pre industrial societies without machines run on fossil fuels (directly or indirectly via power stations) each person could barely grow/make enough stuff to keep themselves alive with any surplus production often siphoned off by kings/emperors/lords. Through the use of energy provided by fossil fuels (not to mention all the useful products that can be made by fossil fuels), humans have transformed their societies such that the average surplus above subsistence needs is huge (at least for the rich, industrialised countries).
What happens when the fossil fuels run out? So far through finding new reserves and finding ways to extract fossils fuels more economically humanity has been able to maintain or increase known reserves despite ever increasing consumption of fossil fuels. However, there is not a limitless amount of fossil fuels in the earth. At some point in the next decades but definitely in the next centuries (which is a very short period of time when you consider that humans have existed for hundreds of thousands of years), fossil fuels will run out (or become so expensive to extract that it wouldn’t be economical to use them like we do today).
What is humanity going to do? Renewable energy is increasing but still only makes up less than 20% of total energy use and with the demand for energy increasing every year (excluding the Covid blip), the increase in renewables is not even enough to keep up with the total increase, nevertheless start to replace fossil fuels.
The only game changer would be fusion but that still looks like it will be decades away from being commercialised (if it ever can).
With respect to fusion I do wonder why such little money is being spent on it. The US invests about half a billion dollars a year but compare that with the 800 billion they spend on defence it seems a pittance. Why hasn’t there been a President who gives the country a goal to solve fusion within a decade (like they did with landing on the moon)? If they invested a similar amount as they did to reach the moon it would accelerate fusion research by decades.
Why do we have a high standard of living? In pre industrial societies without machines run on fossil fuels (directly or indirectly via power stations) each person could barely grow/make enough stuff to keep themselves alive with any surplus production often siphoned off by kings/emperors/lords. Through the use of energy provided by fossil fuels (not to mention all the useful products that can be made by fossil fuels), humans have transformed their societies such that the average surplus above subsistence needs is huge (at least for the rich, industrialised countries).
What happens when the fossil fuels run out? So far through finding new reserves and finding ways to extract fossils fuels more economically humanity has been able to maintain or increase known reserves despite ever increasing consumption of fossil fuels. However, there is not a limitless amount of fossil fuels in the earth. At some point in the next decades but definitely in the next centuries (which is a very short period of time when you consider that humans have existed for hundreds of thousands of years), fossil fuels will run out (or become so expensive to extract that it wouldn’t be economical to use them like we do today).
What is humanity going to do? Renewable energy is increasing but still only makes up less than 20% of total energy use and with the demand for energy increasing every year (excluding the Covid blip), the increase in renewables is not even enough to keep up with the total increase, nevertheless start to replace fossil fuels.
The only game changer would be fusion but that still looks like it will be decades away from being commercialised (if it ever can).
With respect to fusion I do wonder why such little money is being spent on it. The US invests about half a billion dollars a year but compare that with the 800 billion they spend on defence it seems a pittance. Why hasn’t there been a President who gives the country a goal to solve fusion within a decade (like they did with landing on the moon)? If they invested a similar amount as they did to reach the moon it would accelerate fusion research by decades.
Petrus1983 said:
I was told a long time ago that 'fossil fuel' won't run out because there's a vast amount of it - it's just the cost of extraction increases as it gets harder and harder to get to. I could be totally wrong though.
Yes that's my take on it too. The big problem of course is that it's impossible to find an honest source for information and the institutional governments just keep spinning untruths.Fusion might not ever work, but we have good old fashioned nuclear to fall back on.
We can also produce oil from plants for plastics and lubricants, but I believe it requires an awful lot of space. Perhaps with enough energy, oil producing plants could be genetically engineered and mass grown in some sort of bio-factory.
We can also produce oil from plants for plastics and lubricants, but I believe it requires an awful lot of space. Perhaps with enough energy, oil producing plants could be genetically engineered and mass grown in some sort of bio-factory.
Petrus1983 said:
I was told a long time ago that 'fossil fuel' won't run out because there's a vast amount of it - it's just the cost of extraction increases as it gets harder and harder to get to. I could be totally wrong though.
Obviously it could run out at some point but not in our lifetimes. Rate of extraction is decreasing for the reason you state but also because of the climate change issue and the drive towards renewables.I suspect by the time all the easy/easier stuff has been extracted we'll be reliant on other energy sources as technology evolves.
Fossil fuels are not running out ….. there’s plenty out there.
Demand for fossil fuels will fall as other forms of electrical generation come through. Renewables will grow & are plentiful. A new nuclear age will come through - the future will not be these mega nukes costing fortunes taking ages to build; the future is SMRs
Fusion may or may not be viable, but there is really no need to panic regarding energy supply long term
Demand for fossil fuels will fall as other forms of electrical generation come through. Renewables will grow & are plentiful. A new nuclear age will come through - the future will not be these mega nukes costing fortunes taking ages to build; the future is SMRs
Fusion may or may not be viable, but there is really no need to panic regarding energy supply long term
xx99xx said:
Petrus1983 said:
I was told a long time ago that 'fossil fuel' won't run out because there's a vast amount of it - it's just the cost of extraction increases as it gets harder and harder to get to. I could be totally wrong though.
Obviously it could run out at some point but not in our lifetimes. Rate of extraction is decreasing for the reason you state but also because of the climate change issue and the drive towards renewables.I suspect by the time all the easy/easier stuff has been extracted we'll be reliant on other energy sources as technology evolves.
Genuinely puzzled by people thinking they won’t run out. There are a fixed resource as they aren’t being created anymore and unlike minerals or metals you can’t recycle them once burnt.
Skeptisk said:
There was a drop in use of fossil fuels because of Covid but we are back on an upward path so it is not true that we are using less.
Genuinely puzzled by people thinking they won’t run out. There are a fixed resource as they aren’t being created anymore and unlike minerals or metals you can’t recycle them once burnt.
They wont run out because before we come close to exhausting all reserves we will have adopted other sources of energy to replace fossil Genuinely puzzled by people thinking they won’t run out. There are a fixed resource as they aren’t being created anymore and unlike minerals or metals you can’t recycle them once burnt.
gazza285 said:
Skeptisk said:
There are a fixed resource as they aren’t being created anymore…
I’m pretty sure they still are, and at a similar rate to which they have always been made.For example coal is made from deposition of organic matter. But given the scale we've been removing trees, not growing as many and not leaving fallen trees on the ground, how would it be replaced?
Similarly, oil is formed by the decay of algae and zooplankton, which again, we've vastly decreased through our effects on the seas and oceans from pollution and river sediment.
ruggedscotty said:
Yeah. It wont run out ever...were just being spun a line,
Its a finite resource. Takes millions of years to make with difficult conditions to replicate the process, but its not going to run out....
Did the Earth stop making them?Its a finite resource. Takes millions of years to make with difficult conditions to replicate the process, but its not going to run out....
Millions of years is only imnportant if we start today
Getragdogleg said:
It wont run out, you are not imagining how huge the planet is accurately.
.
I think people who estimate reserves do know how big the planet is. .
Humans seem prone to such rather blinkered thinking. I’m sure Americans in the 18th century, when there were over 60 million bison, thought they would never go extinct yet within a hundred years they were done to 600 animals and almost disappeared.
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