India's population to surpass China
Discussion
India's population to surpass China this week
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-653801...
Apparently numbers will settle later on this century as birth rates decline, but thats still a lot of people.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-653801...
Apparently numbers will settle later on this century as birth rates decline, but thats still a lot of people.
I believe China implemented strict population limits some time ago, which lead to families wanting to use their child quota up with a male child.
India obviously has no such control, which allowed them to catch up and overtake China.
For now, the news "is what it is" for me - I don't have any way of trying to judge it, or interpret what the consequences might be.
What's interesting is that these two countries are over 4 times the size of the next nearest country though (USA), which must reflect their geography and resources, and shift to industrialised food production.
India obviously has no such control, which allowed them to catch up and overtake China.
For now, the news "is what it is" for me - I don't have any way of trying to judge it, or interpret what the consequences might be.
What's interesting is that these two countries are over 4 times the size of the next nearest country though (USA), which must reflect their geography and resources, and shift to industrialised food production.
What I find interesting are stats like these
People under the age of 25 account for more than 40% of India's population. In fact, there are so many Indians in this age group that roughly one-in-five people globally who are under the age of 25 live in India. Looking at India's age distribution another way, the country's median age is 28
As our populations age we may find that future technological and scientific prowess may be led by the likes of India and that they are already on their way to becoming a very important player on the world stage. Maybe our manufacturing will move their from China.
People under the age of 25 account for more than 40% of India's population. In fact, there are so many Indians in this age group that roughly one-in-five people globally who are under the age of 25 live in India. Looking at India's age distribution another way, the country's median age is 28
As our populations age we may find that future technological and scientific prowess may be led by the likes of India and that they are already on their way to becoming a very important player on the world stage. Maybe our manufacturing will move their from China.
s1962a said:
What I find interesting are stats like these
People under the age of 25 account for more than 40% of India's population. In fact, there are so many Indians in this age group that roughly one-in-five people globally who are under the age of 25 live in India. Looking at India's age distribution another way, the country's median age is 28
As our populations age we may find that future technological and scientific prowess may be led by the likes of India and that they are already on their way to becoming a very important player on the world stage. Maybe our manufacturing will move their from China.
There is some interesting detail here which suggests certainly not imminently.People under the age of 25 account for more than 40% of India's population. In fact, there are so many Indians in this age group that roughly one-in-five people globally who are under the age of 25 live in India. Looking at India's age distribution another way, the country's median age is 28
As our populations age we may find that future technological and scientific prowess may be led by the likes of India and that they are already on their way to becoming a very important player on the world stage. Maybe our manufacturing will move their from China.
https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp-growth-annu...
Services of various sorts account for 60% of GDP.
However 50% of the employment base is in agriculture.
Manufacturing only accounts for 15% of GDP.
To refactor its economy along Chinese lines it would need to pretty much drive the rural workers into the cities (which unlike their Chinese equivalents are not communistic zones where a party apparatchik can point at a slum and say ‘level it’ while relying on shadow banking investment to prop the whole thing up).
The impact of that would be pretty much Mao-esque levels of Great Leap Forwardness with the absolute risk of famine and starvation as India does not have lots of currency to ship in enormous quantities of wheat, pork etc to prevent its people from starving.
Don’t get me wrong: if a figure arose in the BJP that could force that change (with the possible millions of deaths involved) then India may be the natural successor to China but I suspect that the ruling classes in India (congress or BJP) know it would be their death warrant.
But India is trundling along with a decent 6-7% growth rate which while not Chinese levels (for what those figures are worth) is good and is building up gradually a solid middle class. They aren’t in a race unless someone like Mohdri loses his head.
I do suspect that Malaysia and Indonesia especially will probably benefit from China’s fall from grace. Population expanding. Large urban population. Less issues around food supply.
Ridgemont said:
However 50% of the employment base is in agriculture.
Manufacturing only accounts for 15% of GDP.
so in the near future:Manufacturing only accounts for 15% of GDP.
(1) will these under 25s be gainfully employed (expand the agriculture & manufacturing?
(2) will India be able to feed these extra people?
If the answer is no to both then mass immigration or an increase in infant mortality will ensue.
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