Rumours of May 2024 General election

[cirian75]

What do we think?

[Rivenink]

I doubt it.

Tories will hold on as long as possible, hoping the polls move back into their favour.


Sunak has no reason at all to want an election now.

[Elysium]

I think its going to be Sept 24

They will move it slightly forward so it is less cold and dark when people are voting.

May is a bit early

[S600BSB]

The attraction of May is that it would be before what could be a very large number of small boat crossings over the summer. Toxic for Rishi and the Cons.

[turbobloke]

Shilling on the side - December 2024.

[Gecko1978]

They are going to loose big (will labour do better I doubt it) because of the following in no particular order.

1) the economy is in the toilet and reversing Truss plans that never happened is looking weak now
2) people are and importantly feel much poorer
3) the NHS ffs we all.clapped an now it's worse than ever
4) strikes, teachers, civil servants, trains etc, ffd a tory government and it feels like the 70s
5) sleeve, ok look it was a bit ok cake, a loan from a mate, he didn't know he lied, ffs we are supposed to say its ok whe. Any other job you'd be fired
6) it felt like a fix, Rishi was second choice to truss, truss left office and no one other than MPs got to decide, the 1st round felt like Penny was stiched up too
7) migrant cricis, no it not them coming over its the fact the UK government comes across as heartless racists in dealing with it
8) ner zero ffs we can't heat homes and you want to make it more expensive
9) covid fraud, mps friends got millions this can't just be brushed aside
10) trust, its just an all time low with MPs now

[Macron]

Marvellous Gecko by wtf does that have to do with the date of the election, bar suggesting they will stretch things out as long as possible in the vain hope things won't be quite so ste?

Let's not forget, Rishi has said inflation will halve, since which time it's risen, the budget promised a load of things not kicking in until next April, and no gov Sept was given any money for pay rises this year so there will be less government to sort that out.

An early election ain't happening when they need dough, and so do we, before they can squander it on giveaways, just in time for voting...

Edited by Macron on Wednesday 5th April 01:23

[Gecko1978]

Macron said:

Marvellous Gecko by wtf does that have to do with the date of the election, bar suggesting they will stretch things out as long as possible in the vain hope things won't be quite so ste?

Let's not forget, Rishi has said inflation will halve, since which time it's risen, the budget promised a load of things not kicking in until next April, and no gov Sept was given any money for pay rises this year so there will be less government to sort that out.

An early election ain't happening when they need dough, and so do we, before they can squander it on giveaways, just in time for voting...

Edited by Macron on Wednesday 5th April 01:23

Re inflation if you recall the budget they said it was down to 6% ans then week later it was reported in fact it was still 10% +

They are out of ideas, they will hold out till Dec 24 (likely Q4 24 rather than Dec) but they will literally make us all worse off in that time while lining their own pockets

[Blue62]

I think the date will be driven by when they can announce a reduction in income tax, if the Spring budget allows they’ll go to the country in May, if not they’ll hang on.

[Vanden Saab]

Elysium said:

I think its going to be Sept 24

They will move it slightly forward so it is less cold and dark when people are voting.

May is a bit early

Agreed, end of September. Let everyone have a good holiday and call it during our annual 'indian' summer to maximise the grey vote. Every poll is showing the gap dropping between Labour and the Tories already, so in a year and a half this could be as low as 5% and will close further once Labour are forced to actually publish their manifesto. They will also have the problem that the energy windfall tax will no longer be available for them to spend 10 times over.
Starmer is the gift that keeps giving for the Tories and will continue to be so as his links to Corbyn will not go away and his desire to sit on the fence and try to please everybody has the opposite effect. I am no fan of Rishi but he does seem to have done a remarkable job of bringing the Tories back together and is making a decent fist of solving the current problems. If the economy is on the up and inflation back to sensible levels then he stands a good chance as people as a group have short memories.

[JagLover]

Elysium said:

I think its going to be Sept 24

They will move it slightly forward so it is less cold and dark when people are voting.

May is a bit early

Yes

I think Sep'24 is likely as well. Unless a number of things have dramatically improved by May'24. Holding it before the start of the new university year also has implications for the student vote.

[craigjm]

Gecko1978 said:

They are going to loose

Oh well at least they won’t lose and something with just not be quite so tight. Thanks for the insight

[Earthdweller]

Vanden Saab said:

Elysium said:

I think its going to be Sept 24

They will move it slightly forward so it is less cold and dark when people are voting.

May is a bit early

Agreed, end of September. Let everyone have a good holiday and call it during our annual 'indian' summer to maximise the grey vote. Every poll is showing the gap dropping between Labour and the Tories already, so in a year and a half this could be as low as 5% and will close further once Labour are forced to actually publish their manifesto. They will also have the problem that the energy windfall tax will no longer be available for them to spend 10 times over.
Starmer is the gift that keeps giving for the Tories and will continue to be so as his links to Corbyn will not go away and his desire to sit on the fence and try to please everybody has the opposite effect. I am no fan of Rishi but he does seem to have done a remarkable job of bringing the Tories back together and is making a decent fist of solving the current problems. If the economy is on the up and inflation back to sensible levels then he stands a good chance as people as a group have short memories.

It was on the radio yesterday that 50% of voters don’t know what Starmer stands for and don’t think he’d make a good PM

The closer to an election we get the narrower the gap will become and crucially Starmer will have to come off the fence and actually come up with policies that won’t split the Labour Party nor terrify the electorate!

Sunak is the worst thing that could have happened for Starmer because he is up against someone who is calm and rational and increasingly looking like a competent leader

If the economy turns the corner and the Tories get a grip of the border problem and cut taxes then I think it isn’t going to be a shoo-in for Labour at all

Most people aren’t stupid and will think twice before jumping out of the frying pan into the fire and can see quite clearly that Starmer’s team are a bunch of absolute clowns with nothing to offer above the Tories

There’s a reason why there’s only been 28 years of Labour Government in the 78 years since WW2 (including the 13 years of Blair/Brown) and why two of those three previous administrations collapsed in chaos

In summary my prediction is that it’s going to be much closer than some are predicting and will I think hinge on the SNP and whether they collapse in Scotland and that vote transfers to Labour

[Ari]

Gecko1978 said:

They are going to loose big (will labour do better I doubt it) because of the following in no particular order.

1) the economy is in the toilet and reversing Truss plans that never happened is looking weak now
2) people are and importantly feel much poorer
3) the NHS ffs we all.clapped an now it's worse than ever
4) strikes, teachers, civil servants, trains etc, ffd a tory government and it feels like the 70s
5) sleeve, ok look it was a bit ok cake, a loan from a mate, he didn't know he lied, ffs we are supposed to say its ok whe. Any other job you'd be fired
6) it felt like a fix, Rishi was second choice to truss, truss left office and no one other than MPs got to decide, the 1st round felt like Penny was stiched up too
7) migrant cricis, no it not them coming over its the fact the UK government comes across as heartless racists in dealing with it
8) ner zero ffs we can't heat homes and you want to make it more expensive
9) covid fraud, mps friends got millions this can't just be brushed aside
10) trust, its just an all time low with MPs now

Agree with all of that, but would it have been any better under Labour?

I genuinely don't know who to vote for anymore. I can't bring myself to vote Conservative given everything that's happened yet Labour seem to be all out of ideas and (for example) during the disastrous for the country lockdowns were calling for more, harder, longer!

There used to be another party I believe, Liberaty of something, but I can only assume they've disbanded.

[Dog Star]

Blue62 said:

I think the date will be driven by when they can announce a reduction in income tax, if the Spring budget allows they’ll go to the country in May, if not they’ll hang on.

I’ve been a lifelong Tory - I’ve even got a framed photo of The Sainted Lady Margaret on my office wall. However I’d like to see this bunch of lying, pilfering, lightweight incompetents out on their arses as soon as possible. They aren’t dories - just a bunch of bent freeloaders.

[Gecko1978]

craigjm said:

Gecko1978 said:

They are going to loose

Oh well at least they won’t lose and something with just not be quite so tight. Thanks for the insight

I listed 10 reasons why buddy

[anonymoususer]

Elysium said:

I think its going to be Sept 24

They will move it slightly forward so it is less cold and dark when people are voting.

May is a bit early

The 24th of September is a Sunday. It will be a break with tradition to hold the election on a Sunday
It will be handy for Tory voters though.
Most Tory voters are more religious than Labour ones and they can go to Church for the religious stuff and vote at same time

[Gecko1978]

Ari said:

Gecko1978 said:

They are going to loose big (will labour do better I doubt it) because of the following in no particular order.

1) the economy is in the toilet and reversing Truss plans that never happened is looking weak now
2) people are and importantly feel much poorer
3) the NHS ffs we all.clapped an now it's worse than ever
4) strikes, teachers, civil servants, trains etc, ffd a tory government and it feels like the 70s
5) sleeve, ok look it was a bit ok cake, a loan from a mate, he didn't know he lied, ffs we are supposed to say its ok whe. Any other job you'd be fired
6) it felt like a fix, Rishi was second choice to truss, truss left office and no one other than MPs got to decide, the 1st round felt like Penny was stiched up too
7) migrant cricis, no it not them coming over its the fact the UK government comes across as heartless racists in dealing with it
8) ner zero ffs we can't heat homes and you want to make it more expensive
9) covid fraud, mps friends got millions this can't just be brushed aside
10) trust, its just an all time low with MPs now

Agree with all of that, but would it have been any better under Labour?

I genuinely don't know who to vote for anymore. I can't bring myself to vote Conservative given everything that's happened yet Labour seem to be all out of ideas and (for example) during the disastrous for the country lockdowns were calling for more, harder, longer!

There used to be another party I believe, Liberaty of something, but I can only assume they've disbanded.

As I said labour I doubt would have done better. The sentiment I get is same as 97, the torys have been in too long its time for change it won't be better but likely not worse.

Inflation and Tax are the big issues. Unless your getting inflation plus pay rises each year then you are feeling poorer an that's not a good look for a government in charge who then take more of your money

[Blue62]

Dog Star said:

I’ve been a lifelong Tory - I’ve even got a framed photo of The Sainted Lady Margaret on my office wall. However I’d like to see this bunch of lying, pilfering, lightweight incompetents out on their arses as soon as possible. They aren’t dories - just a bunch of bent freeloaders.

I think quite a lot of people feel that way, when you reflect on the calibre of ministers (Coffey, Williamson, Dorries et al) along with abject policy failures (water, energy, trade, health, education) it’s hard to line up with previous Tory administrations. I won’t vote Labour, mainly for selfish reasons, but I’ll never vote Tory again.

For the blinkered who think Starmer is the anti christ and that the anodyne Sunak will come up trumps, I’d suggest that Scotland may have a significant role to play come the next election. I suspect it will be close, but I think most of us capable of independent thought have had enough of the sleaze, lies and corruption.

[Ecosseven]

anonymoususer said:

Elysium said:

I think its going to be Sept 24

They will move it slightly forward so it is less cold and dark when people are voting.

May is a bit early

The 24th of September is a Sunday. It will be a break with tradition to hold the election on a Sunday
It will be handy for Tory voters though.
Most Tory voters are more religious than Labour ones and they can go to Church for the religious stuff and vote at same time

I think Elysium meant September 2024, not the day of 24th of September.