Warnings of China invading Taiwan
Discussion
Seems like there are threats from China that they could invade Taiwan by the end of the year (not long to go now)
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/taiwan-china-military...
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/aug/4/wi...
https://www.dailyangle.com/articles/warning-chinas...
I know some countries are making efforts to move away from their dependancy on China (and India) by building factories to produce essential goods like medicins and electronics and I know from when I previously posted on here about the Chinese threat some PH contributors responded by saying they are cancelling their take away, but are UK doing anything to ease their dependancy on China?
Also it is interesting Biden says he will go to war over Taiwan
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-615485...
Why is he not willing to back Ukraine in the same way even not willing to supply defence systems that could protect the cities (and power plants) from attack from Russia
We've discussed this a little before (ww3 thread in the lounge) I think it's still too soon - they're not quite there yet with shipping, but are close. I think they'll want some reserve for losses, so whilst they may just about have enough dual capable civil shipping, they'll wait a bit longer.
https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/mind-the-gap-how...
https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/mind-the-gap-par...
The Naval build up will be noticeable. I also think they'd want to practice at least 1 full army brigade landing exercise.
When it kicks off, Taiwan will be too busy getting malleted by everything non-nuclear that the PLA missile force and air force can throw at them. They will also be subject to extensive cyber and info attack, as well as sabotage.
This is a good thread on the likely approach China will take in the opening few days of its attack on Taiwan.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/158431953624513...
There is no doubt that a strait crossing will be opposed by everything Taiwan and its allies possess, China will lose some of its shipping during a crossing, but it is unlikely to lose all of its shipping. The key thing is to make China think that it will take such heavy losses that it's not worth the outlay.
As I said before, Xi won't kick this off until he's certain of taking Taiwan.
https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/mind-the-gap-how...
https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/mind-the-gap-par...
The Naval build up will be noticeable. I also think they'd want to practice at least 1 full army brigade landing exercise.
When it kicks off, Taiwan will be too busy getting malleted by everything non-nuclear that the PLA missile force and air force can throw at them. They will also be subject to extensive cyber and info attack, as well as sabotage.
This is a good thread on the likely approach China will take in the opening few days of its attack on Taiwan.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/158431953624513...
There is no doubt that a strait crossing will be opposed by everything Taiwan and its allies possess, China will lose some of its shipping during a crossing, but it is unlikely to lose all of its shipping. The key thing is to make China think that it will take such heavy losses that it's not worth the outlay.
As I said before, Xi won't kick this off until he's certain of taking Taiwan.
Taiwan is a strong ally of the US and I would suspect that pretty much any president will be forced into a conflict over the island. Its strategically important never mind the alignment for a long time. So yeah, get that bit.
As for China actually invading? Its a distraction. Now I am not going to say if it will or not happen - last time I did, I said THE DAY BEFORE that Russia wouldnt invade Ukraine and we know how that ended up! So I am not going to say, but this is classic sabre rattling from the Chinese and happens to coincide with Xi stamping his power out.
Could China justify this? Nope and economically it would be a disaster for them. Could they actually succeed? Overwhelming power maybe, but Taiwan has a substantial defence force and the losses on both sides would be significant. Would China really do this? Dont know, but the Chinese economy is suffering in key areas and long-term debt is an issue for them. So not sure that this would actually work for them.
As for China actually invading? Its a distraction. Now I am not going to say if it will or not happen - last time I did, I said THE DAY BEFORE that Russia wouldnt invade Ukraine and we know how that ended up! So I am not going to say, but this is classic sabre rattling from the Chinese and happens to coincide with Xi stamping his power out.
Could China justify this? Nope and economically it would be a disaster for them. Could they actually succeed? Overwhelming power maybe, but Taiwan has a substantial defence force and the losses on both sides would be significant. Would China really do this? Dont know, but the Chinese economy is suffering in key areas and long-term debt is an issue for them. So not sure that this would actually work for them.
CraigyMc said:
Taiwan is taken, that's the silicon industry upended. Anything with a modern node processor is going to be suspect.
Literally the primary reason that Taiwan has the support of the US. The US is trying, with some limited success, to get Taiwan and TSMC to open factories in the US.
But Taiwan isn't keen to give up its expertise so easily, given it is the ace that keeps the US backing them vs China.
China won't attack Taiwan until it is very sure it can take the island very quickly, and with little damage to the chip manufacturing plants
Rivenink said:
CraigyMc said:
Taiwan is taken, that's the silicon industry upended. Anything with a modern node processor is going to be suspect.
Literally the primary reason that Taiwan has the support of the US. The US is trying, with some limited success, to get Taiwan and TSMC to open factories in the US.
But Taiwan isn't keen to give up its expertise so easily, given it is the ace that keeps the US backing them vs China.
China won't attack Taiwan until it is very sure it can take the island very quickly, and with little damage to the chip manufacturing plants
ASML is the Dutch company that makes the litho, and the wafer basic materials come from two japanese firms, but a lot of the rest of the stuff is from America.
TSMC have a waiver on some of the limits for their mainland China operations, which presumably are at risk to start with.
The effect of a China/Taiwan war would be a PRC win over Taiwan, and also utter havoc to world trade.
coanda said:
We've discussed this a little before (ww3 thread in the lounge) I think it's still too soon - they're not quite there yet with shipping, but are close. I think they'll want some reserve for losses, so whilst they may just about have enough dual capable civil shipping, they'll wait a bit longer.
https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/mind-the-gap-how...
https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/mind-the-gap-par...
The Naval build up will be noticeable. I also think they'd want to practice at least 1 full army brigade landing exercise.
When it kicks off, Taiwan will be too busy getting malleted by everything non-nuclear that the PLA missile force and air force can throw at them. They will also be subject to extensive cyber and info attack, as well as sabotage.
This is a good thread on the likely approach China will take in the opening few days of its attack on Taiwan.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/158431953624513...
There is no doubt that a strait crossing will be opposed by everything Taiwan and its allies possess, China will lose some of its shipping during a crossing, but it is unlikely to lose all of its shipping. The key thing is to make China think that it will take such heavy losses that it's not worth the outlay.
As I said before, Xi won't kick this off until he's certain of taking Taiwan.
The war in Ukraine will I think very much put China off. The predictions of what China will do are pretty similar to what people predicted Russia would do to Ukraine.https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/mind-the-gap-how...
https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/mind-the-gap-par...
The Naval build up will be noticeable. I also think they'd want to practice at least 1 full army brigade landing exercise.
When it kicks off, Taiwan will be too busy getting malleted by everything non-nuclear that the PLA missile force and air force can throw at them. They will also be subject to extensive cyber and info attack, as well as sabotage.
This is a good thread on the likely approach China will take in the opening few days of its attack on Taiwan.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/158431953624513...
There is no doubt that a strait crossing will be opposed by everything Taiwan and its allies possess, China will lose some of its shipping during a crossing, but it is unlikely to lose all of its shipping. The key thing is to make China think that it will take such heavy losses that it's not worth the outlay.
As I said before, Xi won't kick this off until he's certain of taking Taiwan.
1: 100 miles of sea crossing is a formidable barrier.
2: Artillery and SAM systems are highly persistent assets.
3: Attrition favours the defender
4: Taiwan has ballistic missiles and subs
5: Preparation for the operation will be obvious
6: China has never done anything like this sort of operation before
There are 23 million Taiwanese, if they want to resist you will need to bring hundreds of thousands of troops over the strait minimum. China has no way of doing this in a contested environment.
Even if they were able to achieve air superiority (not a given see Ukraine) the Chinese still have to land. With their existing assets like helicopters and landing craft they will have to make multiple trips to put even a small bridgehead down and support it.
They would likely loose their stocks of landing craft and helicopters very rapidly. Motars, manpads and MLRS are very difficult for the Chinese stop, basically all of Taiwan can be covered by one MLRS. This also assumes that the Taiwanese don't hit these assets at the other side when they are loading.
You could make arguments around what happens if China blockaded Taiwan. The big issue is that by its placement Taiwan also blockades China.
In short the time when China could invade Taiwan has probably already passed. Very few people in Taiwan consider themselves Chinese and the number is dropping all the time as fewer people have direct connections with the mainland. If the population is prepared to resist en mass then the number of troops you would need to invade is prohibitive even for the PLA.
off_again said:
Taiwan is a strong ally of the US and I would suspect that pretty much any president will be forced into a conflict over the island. Its strategically important never mind the alignment for a long time. So yeah, get that bit
Serious question.....Could it be that whilst having Biden in power has helped Ukraine (over having Trump with his pro russian stance), the opposite may in fact be true for Taiwan given Trump's visceral hatred of the CCP as evidenced by attempted trade wars?
ChemicalChaos said:
off_again said:
Taiwan is a strong ally of the US and I would suspect that pretty much any president will be forced into a conflict over the island. Its strategically important never mind the alignment for a long time. So yeah, get that bit
Serious question.....Could it be that whilst having Biden in power has helped Ukraine (over having Trump with his pro russian stance), the opposite may in fact be true for Taiwan given Trump's visceral hatred of the CCP as evidenced by attempted trade wars?
Talksteer said:
The war in Ukraine will I think very much put China off. The predictions of what China will do are pretty similar to what people predicted Russia would do to Ukraine.
1: 100 miles of sea crossing is a formidable barrier.
2: Artillery and SAM systems are highly persistent assets.
3: Attrition favours the defender
4: Taiwan has ballistic missiles and subs
5: Preparation for the operation will be obvious
6: China has never done anything like this sort of operation before
There are 23 million Taiwanese, if they want to resist you will need to bring hundreds of thousands of troops over the strait minimum. China has no way of doing this in a contested environment.
Even if they were able to achieve air superiority (not a given see Ukraine) the Chinese still have to land. With their existing assets like helicopters and landing craft they will have to make multiple trips to put even a small bridgehead down and support it.
They would likely loose their stocks of landing craft and helicopters very rapidly. Motars, manpads and MLRS are very difficult for the Chinese stop, basically all of Taiwan can be covered by one MLRS. This also assumes that the Taiwanese don't hit these assets at the other side when they are loading.
You could make arguments around what happens if China blockaded Taiwan. The big issue is that by its placement Taiwan also blockades China.
In short the time when China could invade Taiwan has probably already passed. Very few people in Taiwan consider themselves Chinese and the number is dropping all the time as fewer people have direct connections with the mainland. If the population is prepared to resist en mass then the number of troops you would need to invade is prohibitive even for the PLA.
Well, that's two opposing views, and we're gonna find out one way or another.1: 100 miles of sea crossing is a formidable barrier.
2: Artillery and SAM systems are highly persistent assets.
3: Attrition favours the defender
4: Taiwan has ballistic missiles and subs
5: Preparation for the operation will be obvious
6: China has never done anything like this sort of operation before
There are 23 million Taiwanese, if they want to resist you will need to bring hundreds of thousands of troops over the strait minimum. China has no way of doing this in a contested environment.
Even if they were able to achieve air superiority (not a given see Ukraine) the Chinese still have to land. With their existing assets like helicopters and landing craft they will have to make multiple trips to put even a small bridgehead down and support it.
They would likely loose their stocks of landing craft and helicopters very rapidly. Motars, manpads and MLRS are very difficult for the Chinese stop, basically all of Taiwan can be covered by one MLRS. This also assumes that the Taiwanese don't hit these assets at the other side when they are loading.
You could make arguments around what happens if China blockaded Taiwan. The big issue is that by its placement Taiwan also blockades China.
In short the time when China could invade Taiwan has probably already passed. Very few people in Taiwan consider themselves Chinese and the number is dropping all the time as fewer people have direct connections with the mainland. If the population is prepared to resist en mass then the number of troops you would need to invade is prohibitive even for the PLA.
Donbot said:
I'd like to know with Trumps pro-Russian stance why Putin invaded when he did.
Because Putin could no longer expect Trump to weaken NATO, plus an underestimation of how willing Biden would be to support Ukraine especially after the chaos that was the withdrawal from Afghanistan.Oliver Hardy said:
Seems like there are threats from China that they could invade Taiwan by the end of the year (not long to go now)
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/taiwan-china-military...
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/aug/4/wi...
https://www.dailyangle.com/articles/warning-chinas...
I know some countries are making efforts to move away from their dependancy on China (and India) by building factories to produce essential goods like medicins and electronics and I know from when I previously posted on here about the Chinese threat some PH contributors responded by saying they are cancelling their take away, but are UK doing anything to ease their dependancy on China?
Also it is interesting Biden says he will go to war over Taiwan
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-615485...
Why is he not willing to back Ukraine in the same way even not willing to supply defence systems that could protect the cities (and power plants) from attack from Russia
All for reducing dependency on China but let's not suddenly forget that we were happy to enjoy decades of prosperity, from the Thatcher era on, by outsourcing our manufacturing to them. When you say 'Seems like there are threats from China...' it seems to me to be that 'seems' is right, they all emanate from the USA. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/taiwan-china-military...
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/aug/4/wi...
https://www.dailyangle.com/articles/warning-chinas...
I know some countries are making efforts to move away from their dependancy on China (and India) by building factories to produce essential goods like medicins and electronics and I know from when I previously posted on here about the Chinese threat some PH contributors responded by saying they are cancelling their take away, but are UK doing anything to ease their dependancy on China?
Also it is interesting Biden says he will go to war over Taiwan
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-615485...
Why is he not willing to back Ukraine in the same way even not willing to supply defence systems that could protect the cities (and power plants) from attack from Russia
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