The collapse of Europe this winter?
Discussion
Might seem an extreme title but-
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear plant
Will this go into melt down this winter and leak radiation across Europe ?
Energy Markets
Will speculators drive Europe to the edge of financial collapse this winter? At what price is the cost of gas and electricity even too expensive for Governments to underwrite ?
Currency
Will we see the collapse of the euro? If German industry suffers extreme pressure from further energy hikes and has to shut down some production how big is the cold that Europe suffers ?
Central Banks
After the colossal cost of COVID how much appetite is there to buy more European debt ?
Liquidity
How much cash do businesses and individuals have to ride out this winter?
Amalgamation of events
Maybe one event is manageable but a series of events ?
Are there other forces at work?
Media seem hostile and spreed doom and gloom every day
Our enemies spread disinformation via social media which many seem to believe
Civil Service seem more interested in working from home than getting back to the office to help get the country prepared for the worst. In a crisis you can’t work at an optimum level on Zoom
Strikes. Unions seem intent on triggering a national strike for political reasons listening to statements from their leaders
Probably the situation is unmanageable for any political leader ? Political leaders of all parties are not up to the job you couldn’t see any of them having the leadership we need to manage multiple crisis
Is society so divided that it’s impossible for us to unite to find solutions ? If so our enemies have won
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear plant
Will this go into melt down this winter and leak radiation across Europe ?
Energy Markets
Will speculators drive Europe to the edge of financial collapse this winter? At what price is the cost of gas and electricity even too expensive for Governments to underwrite ?
Currency
Will we see the collapse of the euro? If German industry suffers extreme pressure from further energy hikes and has to shut down some production how big is the cold that Europe suffers ?
Central Banks
After the colossal cost of COVID how much appetite is there to buy more European debt ?
Liquidity
How much cash do businesses and individuals have to ride out this winter?
Amalgamation of events
Maybe one event is manageable but a series of events ?
Are there other forces at work?
Media seem hostile and spreed doom and gloom every day
Our enemies spread disinformation via social media which many seem to believe
Civil Service seem more interested in working from home than getting back to the office to help get the country prepared for the worst. In a crisis you can’t work at an optimum level on Zoom
Strikes. Unions seem intent on triggering a national strike for political reasons listening to statements from their leaders
Probably the situation is unmanageable for any political leader ? Political leaders of all parties are not up to the job you couldn’t see any of them having the leadership we need to manage multiple crisis
Is society so divided that it’s impossible for us to unite to find solutions ? If so our enemies have won
I doubt any of that.
But look a bit closer to home. People could well be starving and freezing to death here.
I think the general populace has no idea what's coming. I heard an energy consultant earlier state that the price of your takeaway could double this winter.
That will bring it home to people what this Govt has done.
But look a bit closer to home. People could well be starving and freezing to death here.
I think the general populace has no idea what's coming. I heard an energy consultant earlier state that the price of your takeaway could double this winter.
That will bring it home to people what this Govt has done.
LHRFlightman said:
That will bring it home to people what this Govt has done.
I hear this a lot...'this government' presumably means grrrr Tories and Boris bad.But it seems to me to be a global phenomenon.
It was the same grrrrr Tories during Covid. But did we really do any worse or better on the global stage?
Seems to me we have more of a global leadership or directorship than most seem to realise?!
grumbledoak said:
It's not just Europe. There are protests going on all over the world about the huge rises in the cost of living.
It is going to be an interesting decade.
Indeed it will be, more commentators are using the terminology pointing to long term problems and adjustments required which will affect billions of citizens.It is going to be an interesting decade.
MitchT said:
I'm after a four year old BMW 4 Series. Can't work out whether to pass the whole thing off as a load of scaremongering and just get on with it or hold out for the apocalypse in the hope of buying one for the price a packet of crisps.
Likewise, I'm wondering when the best time would be to purchase a new motorcycle.I suppose it depends on whether Ms Truss can step up to the plate & save the world, a bit like Gordon Brown did at that fancy hotel meet with world leaders during the financial crisis. Not holding my breath....
The Govt.[s] of the past few decades have failed in terms of resilience to large external shock. This is mirrored everywhere you had a globalist interdependency agenda married to plan continuation bias and an underappreciation of the risks of complexity. We've spent our time and money languishing at 'peak abundance' in a gimmick economy to prop up late capitalism's embedded growth obligations. We're not living the dream, we're living in a dream.
None of the people you can vote for has the capacity to see, admit, alter or think their way around the current state of affairs or more importantly better prepare for the future security of the country in a credible way. They are hollow people, avatars in the simulacrum that are only proximal to realities. They affect realities though, hence 'the mess' at the intersection. After that it is just a lurching, sporadic, uncoordinated, ramshackle, daily-update approach to deeper time. Politicians are on a 2 day time scale. Politics is on a 1-5yr timescale. No one will look further than this as there is no incentive to do so and no capacity to even imagine it.
Another factor for this is a credulous, gawping population also kept in an eternal present by frustrated activists masquerading as journalists hacking your brain stem with emotive rubbish. Politics undergoes a reification by them and becomes what it isn't - politics as a ratchet mechanism for status in the in-group, an irrelevance as nothing changes or used as a protest vote at the lack of attention. People form instant opinions on things they could barely write more than a sentence on based on heuristics they barely understand and it then magically becomes a hill to die on, so adamant is it that 'I cannot be WRONG!'.
To advance a society you need a combination of things; intellect, vision, drive, discipline and cohesiveness among them. At present we have the Daily Wail, obsession with the eternal present, torpor, individualisation and intra-mural conflict. We have early onset social senility.
This rant transcends the political divide, which is largely an illusion fed to the gullible to perpetuate the incompetent anyway, how could it be otherwise.
#Parklife
None of the people you can vote for has the capacity to see, admit, alter or think their way around the current state of affairs or more importantly better prepare for the future security of the country in a credible way. They are hollow people, avatars in the simulacrum that are only proximal to realities. They affect realities though, hence 'the mess' at the intersection. After that it is just a lurching, sporadic, uncoordinated, ramshackle, daily-update approach to deeper time. Politicians are on a 2 day time scale. Politics is on a 1-5yr timescale. No one will look further than this as there is no incentive to do so and no capacity to even imagine it.
Another factor for this is a credulous, gawping population also kept in an eternal present by frustrated activists masquerading as journalists hacking your brain stem with emotive rubbish. Politics undergoes a reification by them and becomes what it isn't - politics as a ratchet mechanism for status in the in-group, an irrelevance as nothing changes or used as a protest vote at the lack of attention. People form instant opinions on things they could barely write more than a sentence on based on heuristics they barely understand and it then magically becomes a hill to die on, so adamant is it that 'I cannot be WRONG!'.
To advance a society you need a combination of things; intellect, vision, drive, discipline and cohesiveness among them. At present we have the Daily Wail, obsession with the eternal present, torpor, individualisation and intra-mural conflict. We have early onset social senility.
This rant transcends the political divide, which is largely an illusion fed to the gullible to perpetuate the incompetent anyway, how could it be otherwise.
#Parklife
MitchT said:
I'm after a four year old BMW 4 Series. Can't work out whether to pass the whole thing off as a load of scaremongering and just get on with it or hold out for the apocalypse in the hope of buying one for the price a packet of crisps.
Similar boat here, except mine choice of car is classic/vintage for fun I have decided to hold off for a year or so to see how the market responds to the current situation. My ‘feeling’ is a large price correction on the close horizon.MitchT said:
I'm after a four year old BMW 4 Series. Can't work out whether to pass the whole thing off as a load of scaremongering and just get on with it or hold out for the apocalypse in the hope of buying one for the price a packet of crisps.
Well it if helps look where you start to see the first signs of people cancelling orders where they thought either their money was safe or they might make a few quid. Lotus Emira springs to mind. Car market will be in same mess as everywhere. Suddenly Electric for a private punter doesn’t look so attractive. Buy on the basis you might get stuck with it and lose some money but have some enjoyment not on the basis it should hold its value !cc3 said:
Well it if helps look where you start to see the first signs of people cancelling orders where they thought either their money was safe or they might make a few quid. Lotus Emira springs to mind. Car market will be in same mess as everywhere. Suddenly Electric for a private punter doesn’t look so attractive. Buy on the basis you might get stuck with it and lose some money but have some enjoyment not on the basis it should hold its value !
I'm coming to this conclusion. We're either utterly f
ked & the world will end up Mad Max, or there'll be some massive correction & we'll ride it out. It's getting to the stage where I simply CBA to follow the news - just too depressing. Life is short, let's enjoy it while we can!Mortarboard said:
You spelled "the UK" wrong.
All of what you mention is as bad, if not worse, than in the EU at present.
M.
Germany and their Eastern block supply chain manufacturing base are in for a massive kicking if they run out of gas.All of what you mention is as bad, if not worse, than in the EU at present.
M.
You can't be so blinkered as to think UK is going to be worse than that?
Biker 1 said:
MitchT said:
I'm after a four year old BMW 4 Series. Can't work out whether to pass the whole thing off as a load of scaremongering and just get on with it or hold out for the apocalypse in the hope of buying one for the price a packet of crisps.
Likewise, I'm wondering when the best time would be to purchase a new motorcycle.I suppose it depends on whether Ms Truss can step up to the plate & save the world, a bit like Gordon Brown did at that fancy hotel meet with world leaders during the financial crisis. Not holding my breath....
Been testing bikes in the £15k to £20k region and was pretty much about to pull the trigger but now wondering if I should wait till next year and possibly pick up a bargain....
If we make it through winter.
Mortarboard said:
You spelled "the UK" wrong.
All of what you mention is as bad, if not worse, than in the EU at present.
M.
The OP doesn’t mention the EU, he mentions Europe .. both the U.K. and EU ( that you mentioned ) are part of Europe All of what you mention is as bad, if not worse, than in the EU at present.
M.
Europe as a whole U.K. and EU/non EU face a real and pressing crisis, which is not going to be transitory
The U.K. has just decapitated its lame leader and has hopefully a new and energised incoming Gov that still has a massive majority …. And the ability to act quickly and independently.. whether they will remains to be seen
Energy and food supply wise it’s in a much better position than large parts of Europe
Most European countries are coalition run and we can see the fissures appearing in them already and that’s way before we get to the EU and the clowns that run that circus
We see as an example Italy may be about to throw a hand grenade into the mix., even your beloved Ireland has a lame duck coalition that is only teetering on because those involved are terrified of it collapsing, an election and the communist loons of Sinn Fein IRA getting into power
Financially the U.K. has independence and the BOE can act quickly and has done much quicker than the ECB
In summary the U.K. is in a mess, being fed by unions intent on mischief and a press high on putting the country down but the issues facing countries elsewhere in Europe are way way more significant.. energy might be getting very expensive in the U.K. but in Germany cost isn’t the issue it’s actually having any at all
Next week hopefully the U.K. gets a decisive Gov in place that WILL act in the national interest quickly
Ireland and the other members of the EU don’t have that luxury and are just passengers waiting to be told what’s “for the common good”
Challenging and troubling times for Europe without doubt not the EU nor the U.K.
Edited by Earthdweller on Sunday 28th August 18:15
Earthdweller said:
The OP doesn’t mention the EU, he mentions Europe .. both the U.K. and EU ( that you mentioned ) are part of Europe
Europe as a whole U.K. and EU/non EU face a real and pressing crisis, which is not going to be transitory
The U.K. has just decapitated its lame leader and has hopefully a new and energised incoming Gov that still has a massive majority …. And the ability to act quickly and independently.. whether they will remains to be seen
Energy and food supply wise it’s in a much better position than large parts of Europe
Most European countries are coalition run and we can see the fissures appearing in them already and that’s way before we get to the EU and the clowns that run that circus
We see as an example Italy may be about to throw a hand grenade into the mix., even your beloved Ireland has a lame duck coalition that is only teetering on because those involved are terrified of it collapsing, an election and the communist loons of Sinn Fein IRA getting into power
Financially the U.K. has independence and the BOE can act quickly and has done much quicker than the ECB
In summary the U.K. is in a mess, being fed by unions intent on mischief and a press high on putting the country down but the issues facing countries elsewhere in Europe are way way more significant.. energy might be getting very expensive in the U.K. but in Germany cost isn’t the issue it’s actually having any at all
Next week hopefully the U.K. gets a decisive Gov in place that WILL act in the national interest quickly
Ireland and the other members of the EU don’t have that luxury and are just passengers waiting to be told what’s “for the common good”
Challenging and troubling times for Europe without doubt not the EU nor the U.K.
Good analysis Europe as a whole U.K. and EU/non EU face a real and pressing crisis, which is not going to be transitory
The U.K. has just decapitated its lame leader and has hopefully a new and energised incoming Gov that still has a massive majority …. And the ability to act quickly and independently.. whether they will remains to be seen
Energy and food supply wise it’s in a much better position than large parts of Europe
Most European countries are coalition run and we can see the fissures appearing in them already and that’s way before we get to the EU and the clowns that run that circus
We see as an example Italy may be about to throw a hand grenade into the mix., even your beloved Ireland has a lame duck coalition that is only teetering on because those involved are terrified of it collapsing, an election and the communist loons of Sinn Fein IRA getting into power
Financially the U.K. has independence and the BOE can act quickly and has done much quicker than the ECB
In summary the U.K. is in a mess, being fed by unions intent on mischief and a press high on putting the country down but the issues facing countries elsewhere in Europe are way way more significant.. energy might be getting very expensive in the U.K. but in Germany cost isn’t the issue it’s actually having any at all
Next week hopefully the U.K. gets a decisive Gov in place that WILL act in the national interest quickly
Ireland and the other members of the EU don’t have that luxury and are just passengers waiting to be told what’s “for the common good”
Challenging and troubling times for Europe without doubt not the EU nor the U.K.
Edited by Earthdweller on Sunday 28th August 18:15
Earthdweller said:
The OP doesn’t mention the EU, he mentions Europe .. both the U.K. and EU ( that you mentioned ) are part of Europe
Europe as a whole U.K. and EU/non EU face a real and pressing crisis, which is not going to be transitory
True. But do you honestly think the OP meant to include the UK? Europe as a whole U.K. and EU/non EU face a real and pressing crisis, which is not going to be transitory
Earthdweller said:
The U.K. has just decapitated its lame leader and has hopefully a new and energised incoming Gov that still has a massive majority …. And the ability to act quickly and independently.. whether they will remains to be seen
Agreed, it remains to be seen. With previous performance no guarantee of future indications, of course. But "acting quickly and decisively" for HMG seems to relate to be in reaction to polls, rather than actual issues, doesn't it? Earthdweller said:
Energy and food supply wise it’s in a much better position than large parts of Europe
Debatable. Earthdweller said:
Most European countries are coalition run and we can see the fissures appearing in them already and that’s way before we get to the EU and the clowns that run that circus
Circus it may be, but it does appear to be running. And of course, "the EU" runs but a portion (and a very small one at that) of an EU country's affairs.Earthdweller said:
We see as an example Italy may be about to throw a hand grenade into the mix., even your beloved Ireland has a lame duck coalition that is only teetering on because those involved are terrified of it collapsing, an election and the communist loons of Sinn Fein IRA getting into power
Socialist, you mean. Except when in power. Then they tend to be remarkably centrist. Funny that Earthdweller said:
Financially the U.K. has independence and the BOE can act quickly and has done much quicker than the ECB
In summary the U.K. is in a mess, being fed by unions intent on mischief and a press high on putting the country down but the issues facing countries elsewhere in Europe are way way more significant.. energy might be getting very expensive in the U.K. but in Germany cost isn’t the issue it’s actually having any at all
Next week hopefully the U.K. gets a decisive Gov in place that WILL act in the national interest quickly
That's a very daily mail viewpoint on the situation In summary the U.K. is in a mess, being fed by unions intent on mischief and a press high on putting the country down but the issues facing countries elsewhere in Europe are way way more significant.. energy might be getting very expensive in the U.K. but in Germany cost isn’t the issue it’s actually having any at all
Next week hopefully the U.K. gets a decisive Gov in place that WILL act in the national interest quickly
Earthdweller said:
Ireland and the other members of the EU don’t have that luxury and are just passengers waiting to be told what’s “for the common good”
You're doing your part with the turf. The construct thanks you for your contribution 
Earthdweller said:
Challenging and troubling times for Europe without doubt not the EU nor the U.K.
Absolutely. But for some, the narrative that the EU might be in the st, therefore UK is smelling of roses (regardless of the manure needed) is paramount. The grass is always browner, so to speak.Interesting times ahead.
M.
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