The Foreign Policy and Diplomacy Thread

[ant1973]

As I have had posts removed from Cure Worse than the Disease Thread (and have been banned from posting in it - cf all other posts about Russia which remain), I thought it might be useful to open a thread to discuss the future of primarily Western Foreign Policy (including military action).

It seems to me that there are lots of double standards which apply in our approach to foreign policy which are difficult to reconcile with, for example, morality and decency.

Have we reached the point where we should simply accept that foreign policy should simply reflect our perceived self-interest. Or should it be something more than that.

Mods - if you have a problem with this thread, will you please reply to the various emails which I have sent to you? It does feel that I am being singled out here.

[alabbasi]

It's always about self interest.

[RogerDodgerSuperTodger]

I have a hunch this thread will be very Russia focussed.

[Boringvolvodriver]

alabbasi said:

It's always about self interest.

Yup - this in spades!

I mean how much interest did we all take in rhe war in Syria compared to Ukraine?

Did we have a scheme to take in refugees from Syria as we did for Ukraine?

Why would that be I wonder?

[ant1973]

I would like to hear what people think about Yemen.

What should UK foreign policy be in relation to Yemen.

Here's what Human Rights Watch say about the conflict

https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/country-chap...

How should UK foreign policy address the issue with Saudi and Oman? Clearly dialogue with the Houthis is more difficult.

But almost 400,000 people have died.

[isaldiri]

RogerDodgerSuperTodger said:

I have a hunch this thread will be very Russia focussed.

Well it is merely the major foreign affairs issue of the day so....were you expecting some other country to be discussed instead?

ant1973 said:

I would like to hear what people think about Yemen.

Tsk. All this whataboutism that we are perfectly happy to coexist with lots of bloody nasty people and indeed are awfully friendly with lots of them. You just like can't point out anything other than untrammelled support for full scale victory by the ukranians against the bad guys....

Edited by isaldiri on Saturday 27th August 19:22

[NerveAgent]

You used an interesting turn of phrase “pro-war” in the context of people supporting Ukraine. Quite bizarre when talking about a country being invaded.

[loafer123]

Foreign policy is regional, not global, and led by our own interests.

There are certainly double standards, for example our policy towards Yemen versus Ukraine or Taiwan versus Myanmar, but those reflect our strategic and self interests, as they should.

We are not here to solve everyone’s problems, just mitigate our risks, and optimise our position.

[ant1973]

The big surprise for me was that Saudi and Iranian involvement in Yemen was of dubious legality.

https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/saudi-war-yemen...

So that's problem number one for our rules based international order.

Notwithstanding that, it is openly reported that the UK, USA and France are all supporting Saudi.

So that's a bit of a problem for us.

So why are we supporting a war of doubtful legality? One where both sides are alleged to have killed a great many civilians unlawfully.

I suppose the logically preceding question is why are we aligned with Saudi Arabia.

But I would welcome comments on why we have apparently intervened in Yemen before we turn to who we have sided with.

[loafer123]

ant1973 said:

The big surprise for me was that Saudi and Iranian involvement in Yemen was of dubious legality.

https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/saudi-war-yemen...

So that's problem number one for our rules based international order.

Notwithstanding that, it is openly reported that the UK, USA and France are all supporting Saudi.

So that's a bit of a problem for us.

So why are we supporting a war of doubtful legality? One where both sides are alleged to have killed a great many civilians unlawfully.

I suppose the logically preceding question is why are we aligned with Saudi Arabia.

But I would welcome comments on why we have apparently intervened in Yemen before we turn to who we have sided with.

Oil, as you well know.

[Ridgemont]

ant1973 said:

The big surprise for me was that Saudi and Iranian involvement in Yemen was of dubious legality.

https://reliefweb.int/report/yemen/saudi-war-yemen...

So that's problem number one for our rules based international order.

Notwithstanding that, it is openly reported that the UK, USA and France are all supporting Saudi.

So that's a bit of a problem for us.

So why are we supporting a war of doubtful legality? One where both sides are alleged to have killed a great many civilians unlawfully.

I suppose the logically preceding question is why are we aligned with Saudi Arabia.

But I would welcome comments on why we have apparently intervened in Yemen before we turn to who we have sided with.

This is the official slogan on the Houthi (meaning partisans of God) movement.

Its translation is "God is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, Cursed be the Jews, Victory to Islam".

Its primary backers are Iran, North Korea, Russia and Syria.

Dunno. Seems fairly self evident.



Now on the general point of morality vs strategic foreign policy I would only note that a ‘moral’ foreign policy was dabbled with by R Cook. I am not sure it was a particular success.

[ant1973]

loafer123 said:

Oil, as you well know.

But Iran has oil, so it can't just be that?

[DeejRC]

ant1973 said:

I would like to hear what people think about Yemen.

What should UK foreign policy be in relation to Yemen.

Here's what Human Rights Watch say about the conflict

https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/country-chap...

How should UK foreign policy address the issue with Saudi and Oman? Clearly dialogue with the Houthis is more difficult.

But almost 400,000 people have died.

Who gives a fk about Yemen and how much weapons can we flog to either side?

[loafer123]

ant1973 said:

But Iran has oil, so it can't just be that?

I suspect your accurate impression of a sealion is why you have been banned elsewhere…

[ant1973]

Ridgemont said:

This is the official slogan on the Houthi (meaning partisans of God) movement.

Its translation is "God is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, Cursed be the Jews, Victory to Islam".

Its primary backers are Iran, North Korea, Russia and Syria.

Dunno. Seems fairly self evident.



Now on the general point of morality vs strategic foreign policy I would only note that a ‘moral’ foreign policy was dabbled with by R Cook. I am not sure it was a particular success.

Here's a simplified account of the war that I think maybe paints a slightly different picture.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/12/18/w...

The Iranians always refer to the US as the great Satan, so no great surprise at the narrative.

It also appears to be credible to say that the pre 2014 regime were corrupt and human rights abusers.

The ethnic Muslim and other divisions shine through here. So I find it tricky to pick sides.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/yemen-crisis

[ClaphamGT3]

"We have no eternal allies, we have no perpetual enemies. Only our interests are eternal and perpetual and those interests it is our duty to follow"

Lord Palmerston 1848

[Ridgemont]

ant1973 said:

Ridgemont said:

This is the official slogan on the Houthi (meaning partisans of God) movement.

Its translation is "God is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, Cursed be the Jews, Victory to Islam".

Its primary backers are Iran, North Korea, Russia and Syria.

Dunno. Seems fairly self evident.



Now on the general point of morality vs strategic foreign policy I would only note that a ‘moral’ foreign policy was dabbled with by R Cook. I am not sure it was a particular success.

Here's a simplified account of the war that I think maybe paints a slightly different picture.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2017/12/18/w...

The Iranians always refer to the US as the great Satan, so no great surprise at the narrative.

It also appears to be credible to say that the pre 2014 regime were corrupt and human rights abusers.

The ethnic Muslim and other divisions shine through here. So I find it tricky to pick sides.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/yemen-crisis

So we back aholes. Whodathunk. The world is peppered with ahole countries. We have however clear interests (thanks for whomever posted the Pam comment).
Our interests are in ensuring the blowback of Shia revanchist expansion does not allow Iranian influence to spread. You only need to look at Hezbollah’s baleful influence through Lebanon, Syria, Israel to see how that plays out. If the Horn of Africa becomes a front for Iran they *will* use it and almost certainly use it to target Saudi.

Saudi is the key thing here. It is a key ally and needs support. It may have an immature psychopath running its affairs but it is critical for western stability that the oil must flow. It operates as a key balancing power to Iranian influence which wants any western influence gone out of the ME. That cannot happen. If Yemen was to reunite under a Shia gov not only would there likely be a genocide of non Shia but the entire locus for Saudi would shift. It would be potentially be encircled.

It’s realist diplomacy 101. We support Saudi as believe it or not they are our allies. If the Saudi dynasty falls then Putins game will look pretty trivial in comparison.

Grim but true.

[TonyToniTone]

Ridgemont said:

If Yemen was to reunite under a Shia gov not only would there likely be a genocide of non Shia but the entire locus for Saudi would shift. It would be potentially be encircled.

Who else would be encircling Saudi ?

[Ridgemont]

TonyToniTone said:

Ridgemont said:

If Yemen was to reunite under a Shia gov not only would there likely be a genocide of non Shia but the entire locus for Saudi would shift. It would be potentially be encircled.

Who else would be encircling Saudi ?

Saudi Arabia (excuse screengrab).




Iraq is pretty much a proxy state of Iran nowadays albeit with a current Kurdish president. As I noted if a Shia insurgency took hold in the Horn of Africa (Eritrea, Sudan, Ethiopia) then Saudi is in all sorts of trouble.

[alabbasi]

That will never happen.