How bad will it get this winter?
Discussion
I'm curious how everyone is feeling currently about the state of the world and economy and what you anticipate will happen this winter when inflation/energy prices really start to bite and what, if anything, we can do to prepare and protect ourselves.
As we bask in a lovely summer and stock markets have recovered somewhat from lows I can't help but think we are frogs in luke warm water heading towards chaos this autumn as rates, inflation, recession, company results, politics, war, covid, hunger, climate, migration, brexit, energy etc all come to a head.
A few random thoughts below:
Global citizen unrest in the west - coordinated refusal to pay energy bills. Increased political polarisation and domestic tension between rich and poor.
Interest rates - I can't see them rising much higher as recession bites. Political resistance will continue to increase vs BOE as balance between inflation/growth/exchange rates is debated. I can't seem them rising higher than 2.5% before falling again. House price inflation will slow down but I can't see any significant fall in prices as demand will remain strong.
Inflation - Not going away anytime soon unless war is resolved in Ukraine and relations with Russia can be resolved. Demand will fall but energy cost will impact all costs directly and indirectly. It feels like this winter will be peak cost before alternative sources of oil/energy can be brought online next year.
Economic migration - A trickle will become a flood as hardship/hunger rise on the periphery of Europe. This will cause increased tension politically as government tries to balance demand for cheap labour/growth with will of the people to better control immigration.
Brexit - the civil war will continue whoever is in power.
Equity markets - It feels like we are in the throws of a bear market rally currently. As recessions bites globally I can see significant sell offs ahead.
Crypto - As long as interest rates are trending up its hard to see much upside for crypto. Expect BTC to be rangebound between 15k and 25k. Ether might outperform BTC a bit as it moves to proof of stake.
Are there any positives on the horizon? It doesn't feel like it currently.
As we bask in a lovely summer and stock markets have recovered somewhat from lows I can't help but think we are frogs in luke warm water heading towards chaos this autumn as rates, inflation, recession, company results, politics, war, covid, hunger, climate, migration, brexit, energy etc all come to a head.
A few random thoughts below:
Global citizen unrest in the west - coordinated refusal to pay energy bills. Increased political polarisation and domestic tension between rich and poor.
Interest rates - I can't see them rising much higher as recession bites. Political resistance will continue to increase vs BOE as balance between inflation/growth/exchange rates is debated. I can't seem them rising higher than 2.5% before falling again. House price inflation will slow down but I can't see any significant fall in prices as demand will remain strong.
Inflation - Not going away anytime soon unless war is resolved in Ukraine and relations with Russia can be resolved. Demand will fall but energy cost will impact all costs directly and indirectly. It feels like this winter will be peak cost before alternative sources of oil/energy can be brought online next year.
Economic migration - A trickle will become a flood as hardship/hunger rise on the periphery of Europe. This will cause increased tension politically as government tries to balance demand for cheap labour/growth with will of the people to better control immigration.
Brexit - the civil war will continue whoever is in power.
Equity markets - It feels like we are in the throws of a bear market rally currently. As recessions bites globally I can see significant sell offs ahead.
Crypto - As long as interest rates are trending up its hard to see much upside for crypto. Expect BTC to be rangebound between 15k and 25k. Ether might outperform BTC a bit as it moves to proof of stake.
Are there any positives on the horizon? It doesn't feel like it currently.
You guys have been reading too much news. The media like to dramatise everything. They have been doing so on the cost of living crisis since January and we are still waiting! Everything is booming!
A third of people wouldn’t even notice if their leccy bill doubles.
A third of people will pay it and grumble.
A third of people will struggle but will muddle on through with a bit more help from the state.
Stock markets are on the mend because they can see inflation will peak soon and the talk will turn to cuts to stimulate us out of recession.
Ukraine is not causing the bulk of the inflation. That’s the Covid printing madness and supply disruption which will eventually resolve.
We are in a bit of a downturn now and maybe it will get worse, but life will go on honestly.
A third of people wouldn’t even notice if their leccy bill doubles.
A third of people will pay it and grumble.
A third of people will struggle but will muddle on through with a bit more help from the state.
Stock markets are on the mend because they can see inflation will peak soon and the talk will turn to cuts to stimulate us out of recession.
Ukraine is not causing the bulk of the inflation. That’s the Covid printing madness and supply disruption which will eventually resolve.
We are in a bit of a downturn now and maybe it will get worse, but life will go on honestly.
Edited by dmahon on Monday 8th August 11:24
dmahon said:
You guys have been reading too much news. The media like to dramatise everything. They have been doing so on the cost of living crisis since January and we are still waiting! Everything is booming!
A third of people wouldn’t even notice if their leccy bill doubles.
A third of people will pay it and grumble.
A third of people will struggle but will muddle on through with a bit more help from the state.
Stock markets are on the mend because they can see inflation will peak soon and the talk will turn to cuts to stimulate us out of recession.
Ukraine is not causing the bulk of the inflation. That’s the Covid printing madness and supply disruption which will eventually resolve.
We are in a bit of a downturn now and maybe it will get worse, but life will go on honestly.
It's good to hear a more positive analysis and I do totally agree on the media perspective and their current obsession with exaggeration and political points making. The plight of the bottom 20% of society is always presented as the norm for the majority which is patented not true as you illustrate above re energy costs. Having said that I am still not clear from my perspective exactly how much I will need to pay this year but equally as you point out above I am one of the lucky ones who has no clue how much I paid in the past and won't lose too much sleep about future payments.A third of people wouldn’t even notice if their leccy bill doubles.
A third of people will pay it and grumble.
A third of people will struggle but will muddle on through with a bit more help from the state.
Stock markets are on the mend because they can see inflation will peak soon and the talk will turn to cuts to stimulate us out of recession.
Ukraine is not causing the bulk of the inflation. That’s the Covid printing madness and supply disruption which will eventually resolve.
We are in a bit of a downturn now and maybe it will get worse, but life will go on honestly.
Edited by dmahon on Monday 8th August 11:24
I agree that lockdown and the crazy printing around Covid let the genie out of the inflation bottle but Russia then took advantage and have now stoked the fires with their energy blockades. There is no quick fix for this and central bank action is of limited effectiveness here.
What we definitely need is some political stability and a cessation of the media harassment and brexit revenge scrutiny which has derailed the governments ability to function over the past couple of years. A rudderless ship is not a great way to brave the current situation.
A500leroy said:
Postie here, All I can say is parcels are currently at christmas levels ( ie 75% above normal summer levels) read into that what you will.
May I ask what area you live/work in? I'm surprised to hear that although I guess it is school holidays so maybe that has an impact.The way the media goes on currently you'd have to conclude that these parcels are all coming from food banks.
A500leroy said:
Postie here, All I can say is parcels are currently at christmas levels ( ie 75% above normal summer levels) read into that what you will.
That may just be the continuing rise of online shopping vs the demise of the high street. Why drive to the shops burning petrol money when you can get it all delivered? Another angle may be 'retail therapy', quite possibly 'OMG my bills are going to double so I'll buy some stuff to cheer me up'.I propose a law such that for every bad news story the news covers, it has to broadcast a good one.
Bobajobbob said:
A500leroy said:
Postie here, All I can say is parcels are currently at christmas levels ( ie 75% above normal summer levels) read into that what you will.
May I ask what area you live/work in? I'm surprised to hear that although I guess it is school holidays so maybe that has an impact.The way the media goes on currently you'd have to conclude that these parcels are all coming from food banks.
I'm still struggling to get my head around the fact a normal 3 bed semi, 2 adults, 2 kids is going to be well north of £300pm this winter for gas and electric.
This isn't PHers moaning about the cost of heating their pools, it's going to affect millions.
If Truss gets in and only helps the middle earners like she's promised then there's a lot of people going to be f
ked and we deserve whatever we get in terms of a backlash.
This isn't PHers moaning about the cost of heating their pools, it's going to affect millions.
If Truss gets in and only helps the middle earners like she's promised then there's a lot of people going to be f
ked and we deserve whatever we get in terms of a backlash. dmahon said:
You guys have been reading too much news. The media like to dramatise everything. They have been doing so on the cost of living crisis since January and we are still waiting! Everything is booming!
A third of people wouldn’t even notice if their leccy bill doubles.
A third of people will pay it and grumble.
A third of people will struggle but will muddle on through with a bit more help from the state.
Stock markets are on the mend because they can see inflation will peak soon and the talk will turn to cuts to stimulate us out of recession.
Ukraine is not causing the bulk of the inflation. That’s the Covid printing madness and supply disruption which will eventually resolve.
We are in a bit of a downturn now and maybe it will get worse, but life will go on honestly.
95% agree. Great to see someone talking level-headed good sense.A third of people wouldn’t even notice if their leccy bill doubles.
A third of people will pay it and grumble.
A third of people will struggle but will muddle on through with a bit more help from the state.
Stock markets are on the mend because they can see inflation will peak soon and the talk will turn to cuts to stimulate us out of recession.
Ukraine is not causing the bulk of the inflation. That’s the Covid printing madness and supply disruption which will eventually resolve.
We are in a bit of a downturn now and maybe it will get worse, but life will go on honestly.
Edited by dmahon on Monday 8th August 11:24
My 5% divergence is if the new PM gets into their head that Govt should start getting involved and 'doing stuff'.
dmahon said:
You guys have been reading too much news. The media like to dramatise everything. They have been doing so on the cost of living crisis since January and we are still waiting! Everything is booming!
A third of people wouldn’t even notice if their leccy bill doubles.
A third of people will pay it and grumble.
A third of people will struggle but will muddle on through with a bit more help from the state.
Stock markets are on the mend because they can see inflation will peak soon and the talk will turn to cuts to stimulate us out of recession.
Ukraine is not causing the bulk of the inflation. That’s the Covid printing madness and supply disruption which will eventually resolve.
We are in a bit of a downturn now and maybe it will get worse, but life will go on honestly.
This. The press just love bad news. A third of people wouldn’t even notice if their leccy bill doubles.
A third of people will pay it and grumble.
A third of people will struggle but will muddle on through with a bit more help from the state.
Stock markets are on the mend because they can see inflation will peak soon and the talk will turn to cuts to stimulate us out of recession.
Ukraine is not causing the bulk of the inflation. That’s the Covid printing madness and supply disruption which will eventually resolve.
We are in a bit of a downturn now and maybe it will get worse, but life will go on honestly.
Edited by dmahon on Monday 8th August 11:24
The world economy is robust. People strive for better.
Don’t believe the doom mongers. You will talk yourself into depression.
dmahon said:
You guys have been reading too much news. The media like to dramatise everything. They have been doing so on the cost of living crisis since January and we are still waiting! Everything is booming!
A third of people wouldn’t even notice if their leccy bill doubles.
A third of people will pay it and grumble.
A third of people will struggle but will muddle on through with a bit more help from the state.
Stock markets are on the mend because they can see inflation will peak soon and the talk will turn to cuts to stimulate us out of recession.
Ukraine is not causing the bulk of the inflation. That’s the Covid printing madness and supply disruption which will eventually resolve.
We are in a bit of a downturn now and maybe it will get worse, but life will go on honestly.
Largely agree. The economy is booming, everyone is short staffed. That may change but at the moment I see no issues. A third of people wouldn’t even notice if their leccy bill doubles.
A third of people will pay it and grumble.
A third of people will struggle but will muddle on through with a bit more help from the state.
Stock markets are on the mend because they can see inflation will peak soon and the talk will turn to cuts to stimulate us out of recession.
Ukraine is not causing the bulk of the inflation. That’s the Covid printing madness and supply disruption which will eventually resolve.
We are in a bit of a downturn now and maybe it will get worse, but life will go on honestly.
Edited by dmahon on Monday 8th August 11:24
Energy - the people who like to run their house at 24C will have to turn it down a bit. I’ve optimised the hell out of the central heating and hot water, and I’m about a year behind what the gas and leccy companies think I am. People need to get their heads around modern systems that control rads individually, they save a fortune. People will not die if they live in houses with one room at 17C.
dmahon said:
You guys have been reading too much news. The media like to dramatise everything. They have been doing so on the cost of living crisis since January and we are still waiting! Everything is booming!
{snip}
We are in a bit of a downturn now and maybe it will get worse, but life will go on honestly.
There is the Football World Cup so that will silence the doom mongering, especially if England go far in the tournament. Then it is straight into Christmas. So the media noise will be nicely shut-up in November & December which is a large part of the winter. But I'm sure they will save it up for early 2023!{snip}
We are in a bit of a downturn now and maybe it will get worse, but life will go on honestly.
However, I am in your camp, life will go on and day will follow night, etc. Switch the news off and live life
Doing so will make us all much healthierEdited by Ashfordian on Monday 8th August 14:08
Super Sonic said:
People will be unable to afford their mortgages/rent and will be made homeless.
People will be unable to eat or heat and will die of starvation or hypothermia.
I guess the uncomfortable question is how many? The media and Labour like to make it sound like 90% of the population live hand to mouth out of food banks and will freeze to death as soon as the goes in. I suspect that the reality is that it is a minority and these are the people that will need help.People will be unable to eat or heat and will die of starvation or hypothermia.
I think some good will come of the energy price increase. People generally will be more aware of their usage, and remember to switch the odd light off, or wait until midnight to start the washing machine etc etc.
Maybe some are considering solar.?
Maybe some are considering ditching gas and going for heatpumps / climate control ?
maybe some are considering an EV?
Speaking personally, we can cover the cost but begrudge spending that amount on energy but will just get on with it. We will try and use less and be a bit smarter, maybe bring the plans for solar forward to prevent being held to ransom like this again.
Maybe some are considering solar.?
Maybe some are considering ditching gas and going for heatpumps / climate control ?
maybe some are considering an EV?
Speaking personally, we can cover the cost but begrudge spending that amount on energy but will just get on with it. We will try and use less and be a bit smarter, maybe bring the plans for solar forward to prevent being held to ransom like this again.
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