How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]

How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]

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The Rotrex Kid

Original Poster:

31,677 posts

167 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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Pit Pony

9,242 posts

128 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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House prices fall ? Nah.

This time in 2032*, they'll be 150% up on today.
  • 2032 being the point I pay off a BTL and a 2nd home mortgages and retire with the rentals paying for life's luxuries. Or Sell them and live off the interest.
My complex man's spreadsheet, assumes no inflation, and I'm up about 40% on my original investments so if they fall my plan is still fine. .


Shnozz

28,008 posts

278 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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Pit Pony said:
It's weird. Perceptions on pay.

My wife thinks anyone on more than £45k is mega rich.
Lucky man then. Particularly if she thinks anything more than 5” is mega long.

kiethton

14,071 posts

187 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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Shnozz said:
Pit Pony said:
It's weird. Perceptions on pay.

My wife thinks anyone on more than £45k is mega rich.
Lucky man then. Particularly if she thinks anything more than 5” is mega long.
Its all relative though isn't it.

If you're single and live in rural wales or a tired northern mining town £45k would buy a great life, if you're trying to support a family of 5 on that wage and live inside the M25 thats a whole different kettle of fish and would lead to a pretty horrible standard of life.

Shnozz

28,008 posts

278 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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kiethton said:
Its all relative though isn't it.

If you're single and live in rural wales or a tired northern mining town £45k would buy a great life, if you're trying to support a family of 5 on that wage and live inside the M25 thats a whole different kettle of fish and would lead to a pretty horrible standard of life.
Wholly appreciate that. But in an Instagram influenced world where even those in rural Wales get the internet, many young women of today look to the Kardashians and thing every young person wears Gucci, drives a leased Merc and drinks Starbucks daily.

Thankyou4calling

10,705 posts

180 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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Someone mentioned earlier that a “Decent” 3 bed terrace in London is well over a million.

Whilst there are plenty like that there are a whole lot more that are less, a lot less.

It’s also interesting to look at London houses in a bit more detail because you often find all is not what it seems. You’ll often have extensions, loft conversions, high end kitchens and bath rooms that you simply don’t know about.

Walk past a terraced house in Twickenham and it will look very similar to a terraced house in Kettering.

Go inside and you’ll see they aren’t comparable in any way.


NickCQ

5,392 posts

103 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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Can I be the first to moan about inconsistent capitalisation of the title between editions of this thread?

loafer123

15,667 posts

222 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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NickCQ said:
Can I be the first to moan about inconsistent capitalisation of the title between editions of this thread?
Is that a rhetorical question?

NickCQ

5,392 posts

103 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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loafer123 said:
Is that a rhetorical question?
No, my lord, it's a potato

valiant

11,341 posts

167 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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Thankyou4calling said:
Someone mentioned earlier that a “Decent” 3 bed terrace in London is well over a million.

Whilst there are plenty like that there are a whole lot more that are less, a lot less.

It’s also interesting to look at London houses in a bit more detail because you often find all is not what it seems. You’ll often have extensions, loft conversions, high end kitchens and bath rooms that you simply don’t know about.

Walk past a terraced house in Twickenham and it will look very similar to a terraced house in Kettering.

Go inside and you’ll see they aren’t comparable in any way.
Depends on what part of London surely?

If you think that London only extends to zone 2 then you may have a point but in the outer environs it’s perfectly possible to get a decent gaff in a non stabby part of London for well under a million (but will still be extortionately expensive compared to a similar house in the Midlands for example).



MX-6

5,987 posts

220 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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kiethton said:
Shnozz said:
Pit Pony said:
It's weird. Perceptions on pay.

My wife thinks anyone on more than £45k is mega rich.
Lucky man then. Particularly if she thinks anything more than 5” is mega long.
Its all relative though isn't it.

If you're single and live in rural wales or a tired northern mining town £45k would buy a great life, if you're trying to support a family of 5 on that wage and live inside the M25 thats a whole different kettle of fish and would lead to a pretty horrible standard of life.
Interesting talk of salaries in this thread, some of those grad level incomes mentioned are an eye opener though I guess I shouldn't be surprised any more, London is a completely different game to elsewhere as well. It makes me feel like I didn't make the best career choices in terms of renumeration (senior design engineer), but work and live outside London and the city commuter blast radius and you can have a decent family house and life without the mega-bucks. A quick google search suggests that the average London salary is £38-40k, so that would suggest there are quite a lot of people in London with "a pretty horrible standard of life", though a couple could obviously have double that as a household income.

z4RRSchris

11,518 posts

186 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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the london salary thing isnt the whole story, the deposits are still eye watering.

you maybe able to very quickly borrow half a million quid, but do you have the 100k + deposit you need, how can you save that without BOMD


vonuber

17,868 posts

172 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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Civ Eng grad will pull in around £31k at the moment to start with. Civ Eng salaries are getting better, which is about time.
As an aside I think Brexit will also boost them massively.

ooid

4,591 posts

107 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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vonuber said:
As an aside I think Brexit will also boost them massively.
Again, I highly doubt it. Top civil & structural engineers have been flying out to overseas already. UAE, Australia, Canada even U.S.A has better prospects (if you intend to stay in construction). The ones who changes industry, moving to finance or business stay here perhaps or also move to U.S.A

Personal knowledge; I had three mates who graduated from Imperial college (Meng) back in 2006. All left U.K. for good. (Singapore, Japan, Australia)

NickCQ

5,392 posts

103 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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z4RRSchris said:
you maybe able to very quickly borrow half a million quid, but do you have the 100k + deposit you need, how can you save that without BOMD
Putting away 3-5 years variable comp would do it on the numbers we are talking about.

Drezza

1,438 posts

61 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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vonuber said:
Civ Eng grad will pull in around £31k at the moment to start with. Civ Eng salaries are getting better, which is about time.
As an aside I think Brexit will also boost them massively.
I hope so! I'm an electrical engineering Grad and started on 28k in the midlands... They paid for my degree though so not too bad I guess.

vonuber

17,868 posts

172 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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ooid said:
Again, I highly doubt it. Top civil & structural engineers have been flying out to overseas already. UAE, Australia, Canada even U.S.A has better prospects (if you intend to stay in construction). The ones who changes industry, moving to finance or business stay here perhaps or also move to U.S.A

Personal knowledge; I had three mates who graduated from Imperial college (Meng) back in 2006. All left U.K. for good. (Singapore, Japan, Australia)
Exactly - therefore there is scarcity. We already struggle to recruit, and losing easy access to European engineers will make it worse.

Although if I had taken the offer to get into finance when I graduated back in 2002, maybe I'd be able to afford a 3 bedroom house in London hehe

okgo

39,336 posts

205 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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MX-6 said:
Interesting talk of salaries in this thread, some of those grad level incomes mentioned are an eye opener though I guess I shouldn't be surprised any more, London is a completely different game to elsewhere as well. It makes me feel like I didn't make the best career choices in terms of renumeration (senior design engineer), but work and live outside London and the city commuter blast radius and you can have a decent family house and life without the mega-bucks. A quick google search suggests that the average London salary is £38-40k, so that would suggest there are quite a lot of people in London with "a pretty horrible standard of life", though a couple could obviously have double that as a household income.
You have to remember a huge number of people in London live in rooms and work in shops/bars/etc. Or are people from abroad doing the same etc. And of course the average also covers graduates/young people (hundreds of thousands of them) that will be living in rooms with mates etc. Some of those people will make enough one day to look into buying, lots won't, lots have no intention and are here for a laugh/sending money home etc etc.

The average salary of a London home-owner would be quite an interesting stat.

NickCQ

5,392 posts

103 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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okgo said:
The average salary of a London home-owner would be quite an interesting stat.
The one I've always wanted to see is "what % of London home-owners could afford to buy their house at current market price"

anonymous-user

61 months

Tuesday 23rd February 2021
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NickCQ said:
z4RRSchris said:
you maybe able to very quickly borrow half a million quid, but do you have the 100k + deposit you need, how can you save that without BOMD
Putting away 3-5 years variable comp would do it on the numbers we are talking about.
Yes, having just done this myself it took us three years of saving £1500 to £1800 each per month. The house we bought went up £75K in this time, so in reality we could barely save quickly enough to keep up with price rises. However, we needed 20% to be able to get a decent mortgage.

One shed car between us, PAYG mobile phones, no Gym memberships, no debt, very rarely drink and rarely eat out. I am not sure how many people would be happy to live a life like that to save a deposit.

That was to buy a 2 bedroom mid terrace in zone 6, crazy when you think about it.