Libya prediction bingo.

[joe_90]

Ok..

Now the 'rebels' have almost taken control, predictions on what will happen.
mine:

Billions of cash disappears.
Internal fighting, killing.
No progress in a year.
People who run the transitional government end up with powerful positions.
Shell etc, start having meetings if not already
No date for the 'election' is set.
Contractors move in and milk the country dry.

Lots of lesson have been learnt from 'Iraq/Afghanistan', when the have not.. Then a year later lots of 'Libya is different from .....', but lesson have now been learnt..


Any more..? or based on previous evidence am i being too cynical.

[Caulkhead]

The only thing I can accurately predict is that pontificating from the sidelines in a comfy chair is easier than fighting to rid yourself of a ruthless dictator and then constructing a functioning democratic government from the rubble.

[Rocksteadyeddie]

Boradly agree with the OP. Getting rid of Gadaffi may be a good thing from a humanitarian / moral perspective. I fear that from all other viewpoints it will prove a total unmitigated disaster. Look at Iraq post Sadaam - and that was with US boots on the ground, and US administrators trying to piece the things back together.

[BoRED S2upid]

How much oil do they actually have?

You could have a country run by oil giants BP, Shell etc... divide it up amongst themselves.

[Rocksteadyeddie]

Not enough to make any difference to the price when they turned the tap off. Less than 1% of proven reserves if I remember correctly.

[s3fella]

Mass immigration to Europe from Africa.

[dandarez]

It won't go according to plan(s)

of Cameron, Obama, Clinton ...and old Uncle Tom Cobley and all.

[EDLT]

Rocksteadyeddie said:

Boradly agree with the OP. Getting rid of Gadaffi may be a good thing from a humanitarian / moral perspective. I fear that from all other viewpoints it will prove a total unmitigated disaster. Look at Iraq post Sadaam - and that was with US boots on the ground, and US administrators trying to piece the things back together.

Didn't they film part of Top Gear in Iraq, bits of it can't be that bad?

[fathomfive]

EDLT said:

Didn't they film part of Top Gear in Iraq, bits of it can't be that bad?

The bits which didn't have those three muppets in them?

[Rocksteadyeddie]

EDLT said:

Rocksteadyeddie said:

Boradly agree with the OP. Getting rid of Gadaffi may be a good thing from a humanitarian / moral perspective. I fear that from all other viewpoints it will prove a total unmitigated disaster. Look at Iraq post Sadaam - and that was with US boots on the ground, and US administrators trying to piece the things back together.

Didn't they film part of Top Gear in Iraq, bits of it can't be that bad?

That was alomst 10 years after the end of the "war" too.