Discussion
do you think there is a chance that it could 'do nothing' in the next few years as it has done over say the past 6 or so years, or indeed the past 12 years?
obviously there is a chance but i have spoken to a couple of people who have been told that historically it always goes up but then fast forward 15 years and they have barely made any money
obviously there is a chance but i have spoken to a couple of people who have been told that historically it always goes up but then fast forward 15 years and they have barely made any money
We won't see the lows until there are sovereign debt restructurings and bank recaps.....those won't happen until the s
t really hits the fan and until that happens the markets won't recover. Politicians and Regulators are either incapable or not motivated to do so until forced to....that is the lesson history has taught us. Everything we have seen so far is a short term fix not a solution....
The kind of solutions the French and Germans are talking about would take years....they don't have that much time.
I think they're are individual stocks that are cheap....the market as a whole goes lower.
t really hits the fan and until that happens the markets won't recover. Politicians and Regulators are either incapable or not motivated to do so until forced to....that is the lesson history has taught us. Everything we have seen so far is a short term fix not a solution....The kind of solutions the French and Germans are talking about would take years....they don't have that much time.
I think they're are individual stocks that are cheap....the market as a whole goes lower.
Beardy10 said:
We won't see the lows until there are sovereign debt restructurings and bank recaps.....those won't happen until the st really hits the fan and until that happens the markets won't recover. Politicians and Regulators are either incapable or not motivated to do so until forced to....that is the lesson history has taught us. Everything we have seen so far is a short term fix not a solution....
The kind of solutions the French and Germans are talking about would take years....they don't have that much time.
I think they're are individual stocks that are cheap....the market as a whole goes lower.
ok, insightful, thanks.t really hits the fan and until that happens the markets won't recover. Politicians and Regulators are either incapable or not motivated to do so until forced to....that is the lesson history has taught us. Everything we have seen so far is a short term fix not a solution....The kind of solutions the French and Germans are talking about would take years....they don't have that much time.
I think they're are individual stocks that are cheap....the market as a whole goes lower.
could I ask why you think the markets are not already pricing the debt restructurings in because it could be said that a lot of people seem to think that it is now inevitable and the 'can kicking' has to stop at some point.
sarkozy and merkel could be argued to not be doing that much so surely the markets can see this? can't they?
Yeah thats pretty much my take.
Nothing is fixed yet.
We need to see Eurobonds and converging fiscal union in Euroland.
Austerity will also hammer growth. The debt overhang doesnt get smaller with more austerity, it gets extended.
Nobody is spending because nobody has money. Governments cant or wont spend it.
We need total capitulation first before we see a consistent upside, or a proper resolution to the problems, not just occasional circle jerks by political retards.
Nothing is fixed yet.
We need to see Eurobonds and converging fiscal union in Euroland.
Austerity will also hammer growth. The debt overhang doesnt get smaller with more austerity, it gets extended.
Nobody is spending because nobody has money. Governments cant or wont spend it.
We need total capitulation first before we see a consistent upside, or a proper resolution to the problems, not just occasional circle jerks by political retards.
Don't forget FTSE 100 is hugely lopsided.
These were the 10 largest companies at 9 March 2011, by market capitalisation (£ billion)
1. BHP Billiton - Mining - £148
2. Shell - Energy - £135
3. HSBC - Bank - £118
4. Vodafone - Telecommunications - £93
5. BP - Energy - £91
6. Rio Tinto - Mining - £86
7. GlaxoSmithKline - Pharmaceuticals - £61
8. Unilever - Consumer goods - £56
9. British American Tobacco - Tobacco - £49
10. British Gas - Energy - £49
It's easy to see that BHP is THREE TIMES THE SIZE of British Gas, and that's only looking at the Top 10 of the 100! Also, there are very few different types of business represented.
When you look at what these businesses do for a living you have to take a vERY negative view of the future to think they won't still be there and making money. For instance, have you noticed the price of petrol, electricity and gas going down recently? Or banks paying generous interest to savers? Or Vodafone closing chops?
These were the 10 largest companies at 9 March 2011, by market capitalisation (£ billion)
1. BHP Billiton - Mining - £148
2. Shell - Energy - £135
3. HSBC - Bank - £118
4. Vodafone - Telecommunications - £93
5. BP - Energy - £91
6. Rio Tinto - Mining - £86
7. GlaxoSmithKline - Pharmaceuticals - £61
8. Unilever - Consumer goods - £56
9. British American Tobacco - Tobacco - £49
10. British Gas - Energy - £49
It's easy to see that BHP is THREE TIMES THE SIZE of British Gas, and that's only looking at the Top 10 of the 100! Also, there are very few different types of business represented.
When you look at what these businesses do for a living you have to take a vERY negative view of the future to think they won't still be there and making money. For instance, have you noticed the price of petrol, electricity and gas going down recently? Or banks paying generous interest to savers? Or Vodafone closing chops?
ringram said:
Yeah thats pretty much my take.
Nothing is fixed yet.
We need to see Eurobonds and converging fiscal union in Euroland.
Austerity will also hammer growth. The debt overhang doesnt get smaller with more austerity, it gets extended.
Nobody is spending because nobody has money. Governments cant or wont spend it.
We need total capitulation first before we see a consistent upside, or a proper resolution to the problems, not just occasional circle jerks by political retards.
playing devils advocate hereNothing is fixed yet.
We need to see Eurobonds and converging fiscal union in Euroland.
Austerity will also hammer growth. The debt overhang doesnt get smaller with more austerity, it gets extended.
Nobody is spending because nobody has money. Governments cant or wont spend it.
We need total capitulation first before we see a consistent upside, or a proper resolution to the problems, not just occasional circle jerks by political retards.
won't eurobonds and converging fiscal union at least mean something has been done so the markets may start then looking ahead and therefore possibly rising?
surely if you well informed chaps on here feel that the markets have a way to fall then won't that mean all the traders and so on feel that way too
jonah35 said:
do you think there is a chance that it could 'do nothing' in the next few years as it has done over say the past 6 or so years, or indeed the past 12 years?
obviously there is a chance but i have spoken to a couple of people who have been told that historically it always goes up but then fast forward 15 years and they have barely made any money
Yeah it always goes up. It was 6950 11 1/2 years ago! So in 11 1/2 years it's gone up by -26.7%.obviously there is a chance but i have spoken to a couple of people who have been told that historically it always goes up but then fast forward 15 years and they have barely made any money
As long as you're putting your money away for a minimum of 50 years you'll be fine.
unrepentant said:
Yeah it always goes up. It was 6950 11 1/2 years ago! So in 11 1/2 years it's gone up by -26.7%.
As long as you're putting your money away for a minimum of 50 years you'll be fine.
well yes exactly my point. obviously you aren't including dividends but nor are you including management charges too.As long as you're putting your money away for a minimum of 50 years you'll be fine.
however, most IFA's/financial advisers/fsa recommendations recommend investments for at least 5 years. Do you think that should change so that most funds are only recommended if you want to invest for at least 20 years?
johnfelstead said:
It's a casino, only gamble what you can afford to lose.
When looking at most stock/indices at a 5 year level, you can see the boom then the crash and then, scarily, how quickly the markets rose to current levels. Makes you wonder if its a false dawn.Also one thing a lot of non finance people won't realise is that the companies in the FTSE 100 make most of their money outside of the uk.
Ozzie Osmond said:
Don't forget FTSE 100 is hugely lopsided.
These were the 10 largest companies at 9 March 2011, by market capitalisation (£ billion)
1. BHP Billiton - Mining - £148
2. Shell - Energy - £135
3. HSBC - Bank - £118
4. Vodafone - Telecommunications - £93
5. BP - Energy - £91
6. Rio Tinto - Mining - £86
7. GlaxoSmithKline - Pharmaceuticals - £61
8. Unilever - Consumer goods - £56
9. British American Tobacco - Tobacco - £49
10. British Gas - Energy - £49
It's easy to see that BHP is THREE TIMES THE SIZE of British Gas, and that's only looking at the Top 10 of the 100! Also, there are very few different types of business represented.
When you look at what these businesses do for a living you have to take a vERY negative view of the future to think they won't still be there and making money. For instance, have you noticed the price of petrol, electricity and gas going down recently? Or banks paying generous interest to savers? Or Vodafone closing chops?
These were the 10 largest companies at 9 March 2011, by market capitalisation (£ billion)
1. BHP Billiton - Mining - £148
2. Shell - Energy - £135
3. HSBC - Bank - £118
4. Vodafone - Telecommunications - £93
5. BP - Energy - £91
6. Rio Tinto - Mining - £86
7. GlaxoSmithKline - Pharmaceuticals - £61
8. Unilever - Consumer goods - £56
9. British American Tobacco - Tobacco - £49
10. British Gas - Energy - £49
It's easy to see that BHP is THREE TIMES THE SIZE of British Gas, and that's only looking at the Top 10 of the 100! Also, there are very few different types of business represented.
When you look at what these businesses do for a living you have to take a vERY negative view of the future to think they won't still be there and making money. For instance, have you noticed the price of petrol, electricity and gas going down recently? Or banks paying generous interest to savers? Or Vodafone closing chops?
From memory think the FTSE 250/All tends to perform better than the 100.amir_j said:
When looking at most stock/indices at a 5 year level, you can see the boom then the crash and then, scarily, how quickly the markets rose to current levels. Makes you wonder if its a false dawn.Also one thing a lot of non finance people won't realise is that the companies in the FTSE 100 make most of their money outside of the uk.
but, do you think there could be a point where it is no longer adviseable to buy investments for 5 years. Normally they are sold on the better growth potential over 5 years plus points but could you argue now that they don't really have better potential for growth over 5 years plus so advisers/funds and so on can't recommend them for 5 year terms
it could be the fact that the market drops a lot more and below the 2003 and 2008 lows.
unrepentant said:
jonah35 said:
markets do tend to bounce back reasonably quickly
How do you figure that when the FTSE is still 25% lower than it was at the end of 1999?Beardy10 said:
We won't see the lows until there are sovereign debt restructurings and bank recaps.....those won't happen until the st really hits the fan and until that happens the markets won't recover. Politicians and Regulators are either incapable or not motivated to do so until forced to....that is the lesson history has taught us. Everything we have seen so far is a short term fix not a solution....
The kind of solutions the French and Germans are talking about would take years....they don't have that much time.
I think they're are individual stocks that are cheap....the market as a whole goes lower.
Agree very much but you forgot the dooming inflation in continental Europe. This will be due to the EZB being forced to print Euro money to pay for all the debts of the PIGS plus Italy and maybe France next (with Germany as the biggest economy in Europe following close behind). That being thanks to the idiotic politics in Europe. This will be an inflation machine.t really hits the fan and until that happens the markets won't recover. Politicians and Regulators are either incapable or not motivated to do so until forced to....that is the lesson history has taught us. Everything we have seen so far is a short term fix not a solution....The kind of solutions the French and Germans are talking about would take years....they don't have that much time.
I think they're are individual stocks that are cheap....the market as a whole goes lower.
On a funny note... I still like to watch "how the markets really work" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwRFoxgEcHc
Listen to the last couple of minutes, it's just taking place in reality now.
Edited by Hansgerd on Thursday 18th August 20:44
jonah35 said:
playing devils advocate here
won't eurobonds and converging fiscal union at least mean something has been done so the markets may start then looking ahead and therefore possibly rising?
surely if you well informed chaps on here feel that the markets have a way to fall then won't that mean all the traders and so on feel that way too
Yes you are right, there should be a nice rally at that point. It wont stop countries having to get their books in order, but it will take the pressure off them and buy a lot more time. If they mess that up then there is no hope for the euro. Just look at the US where states issue their own debt, as does the Fed. The same needs to happen in the EURO zone... with the same supernational fiscal management. IMO.. Of course it needs to be done right with limits and controls, but long term it should be very bullish.won't eurobonds and converging fiscal union at least mean something has been done so the markets may start then looking ahead and therefore possibly rising?
surely if you well informed chaps on here feel that the markets have a way to fall then won't that mean all the traders and so on feel that way too
In effect creating the united states of europe..
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff