General Election July 2024

[biggbn]

Blackpuddin said:

119 said:

biggbn said:

Derek Smith said:

MC Bodge said:

biggbn said:

Say what you like about Corbyn but on old fashioned campaigning and very little budget he held his seat. That's not a protest vote, an anti tory vote, that's because people in that area like him. Pleased for the old bugger

He was very much the wrong man to lead Labour, but his short post-election interview on C4 was actually very good.

My son met him a number of times when he, Corbyn, was leader. He found him honest, direct and approachable. He appeared to take an interest in people around him. He reckoned that if he'd have voted for him in his constituency. If he got through to my lad, who meets a number of politicians in his job and is quite cynical when it comes to them, it might be easier to understand his popularity with his voters as he meets with a lot of them.

He has a cause he believes in and goes for it. He did not enrich himself while leader, so no chance of him being PM.

Always seemed a decent, personable fella to me. Portrayed as the exact opposite...wonder why?

Even you could use the internet to find out why.

I have never despised anyone more than that odious individual.

He was thought very highly of by the WW2 veterans he spent time with after the armistice day celebrations when Cameron fked off to an invited guests lunch. That will do me. It always seems that those who spent time with him had a lot of time for him and those who believed the media hatchet jobs didn't...I appreciate its not that simplistic bit it seems a decent barometer...


Anyhow gents, I'll take this opportunity to wish you all a fond farewell, I'm off for the holidays, 6 weeks of bliss and it's gonna be an Internet free 6 weeks. Take care all, peace and love, gbn x

Edited by biggbn on Friday 5th July 17:46

Edited by biggbn on Friday 5th July 17:48

[DeejRC]

smn159 said:

CraigyMc said:

E63eeeeee... said:

Countdown said:

Starmer got fewer votes than Corbyn (500k less than Corbyn in 2019, nearly 5m less than Corbyn in 2017).

If the Tories can get somebody half decent and (more importantly) stop fighting amongst themselves there's a very good chance they can turn things around in the next 4/5 years.

Well, yes, in theory. They only have 120 people to choose from, and have you seen some of them?

Jenrick, Braverman, Francois, IDS, McVey, Davis.

With these people, the infighting won't stop.

Doubtful that they're moving as one back to the centre ground any time soon...

Likely going to target that 15% of Reform votes - if so split in the party is likely to get worse

I stated in posts either in here or the Reform thread prior to election day that Farage is a 15% man. He/his shtick is only going to attract 15% of the vote, lo and behold - he’s got 15% of the vote. This is not difficult political analysis. You do not win GEs by being the 15% party.
So 2 things must/will now happen, either:
A) the Tory Party realigns itself to the centre and concentrates on being a financially stable party again
Or
B) it further tries to chase the 15% vote and dies

What Farage does alongside that, will be interesting. If the Tories opt for B though, Farage will take them to the cleaners, lock, stock and barrel.

[bitchstewie]

How did Galloway get booted out so soon didn't he only get elected a couple of months back?

Odious man but what changed so quickly?

[B'stard Child]

biggbn said:

Anyhow gents, I'll take this opportunity to wish you all a fond farewell, I'm off for the holidays, 6 weeks of bliss and it's gonna be an Internet free 6 weeks. Take care all, peace and love, gbn x

Have a great holiday fella - enjoy the internet free environment

[carlo996]

biggbn said:

Poor leader, agreed. To much of an ideologue

You mean communist. Anyway we have his apprentice now, and that overachiever Rayner

[Solocle]

biggbn said:

He was thought very highly of by the WW2 veterans he spent time with after the armistice day celebrations when Cameron fked off to an invited guests lunch. That will do me. It always seems that those who spent time with him had a lot of time for him and those who believed the media hatchet jobs didn't...I appreciate its not that simplistic bit it seems a decent barometer...


Anyhow gents, I'll take this opportunity to wish you all a fond farewell, I'm off for the holidays, 6 weeks of bliss and it's gonna be an Internet free 6 weeks. Take care all, peace and love, gbn x

Edited by biggbn on Friday 5th July 17:46

Edited by biggbn on Friday 5th July 17:48

I'm going to be off on holiday soon too... to Israel

I don't doubt that he's popular locally, and comes across personably.

But his politics on Russia, as highlihted by Ukraine, was outright a threat to this country from a potential PM. His antisemitic comments about "Zionists... irony" were deeply troubling as a Jew, and I was genuinely looking at emigrating if he won. My response to the 2019 exit poll was one of euphoric relief.

I honestly didn't expect to be voting Labour in 2024, but Starmer really has turned the ship around, and the Tories have meanwhile taken pickaxes to the deck.

[Master Bean]

CraigyMc said:

Master Bean said:

What are the 2 seats not declared yet?

• South Basildon and East Thurrock (a recount is in progress, first count had reform up by 135 over labour)

• Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire (due to a "discrepancy" -- won't be announced until Saturday at the earliest)

Thank you.

[LimmerickLad]

biggbn said:

Anyhow gents, I'll take this opportunity to wish you all a fond farewell, I'm off for the holidays, 6 weeks of bliss and it's gonna be an Internet free 6 weeks. Take care all, peace and love, gbn x

Edited by biggbn on Friday 5th July 17:46

Edited by biggbn on Friday 5th July 17:48

6 weeks withou tinternet!!!!.........Buddhist retreat?..........enjoy & chill bigfella

[AstonZagato]

DeejRC said:

smn159 said:

CraigyMc said:

E63eeeeee... said:

Countdown said:

Starmer got fewer votes than Corbyn (500k less than Corbyn in 2019, nearly 5m less than Corbyn in 2017).

If the Tories can get somebody half decent and (more importantly) stop fighting amongst themselves there's a very good chance they can turn things around in the next 4/5 years.

Well, yes, in theory. They only have 120 people to choose from, and have you seen some of them?

Jenrick, Braverman, Francois, IDS, McVey, Davis.

With these people, the infighting won't stop.

Doubtful that they're moving as one back to the centre ground any time soon...

Likely going to target that 15% of Reform votes - if so split in the party is likely to get worse

I stated in posts either in here or the Reform thread prior to election day that Farage is a 15% man. He/his shtick is only going to attract 15% of the vote, lo and behold - he’s got 15% of the vote. This is not difficult political analysis. You do not win GEs by being the 15% party.
So 2 things must/will now happen, either:
A) the Tory Party realigns itself to the centre and concentrates on being a financially stable party again
Or
B) it further tries to chase the 15% vote and dies

What Farage does alongside that, will be interesting. If the Tories opt for B though, Farage will take them to the cleaners, lock, stock and barrel.

I think the Tories are seriously screwed. They have some poisonous people still left in parliament and some excellent people who lost their seats.
Labour aren't particularly liked by the electorate (despite the huge majority) but, boy, are the Tories hated! They need to find a leader behind whom they can coalesce and a manifesto that the electorate like. I can't see either happening. And they have Farage trying a Trump-style takeover of the party.

[CraigyMc]

bhstewie said:

How did Galloway get booted out so soon didn't he only get elected a couple of months back?

Odious man but what changed so quickly?

He was elected in a by-election.

Same reason mid bedforshire went from Tory to Labour for the first time ever, 4 months ago (to boot out Dorries) but is now back to Tory (because that's how it's voted for 100 years, more or less).

[hidetheelephants]

bhstewie said:

How did Galloway get booted out so soon didn't he only get elected a couple of months back?

Odious man but what changed so quickly?

Protest vote plus the labour candidate getting the party endorsement withdrawn for the by election, then an actual labour candidate at the GE spanked him. Or at least that appears to be the case.

[eharding]

LimmerickLad said:

6 weeks withou tinternet!!!!.........Buddhist retreat?..........enjoy & chill bigfella

No need for a Buddhist retreat to be without internet. - just sign up with Gigaclear. That’ll do the trick.

[LimmerickLad]

eharding said:

LimmerickLad said:

6 weeks withou tinternet!!!!.........Buddhist retreat?..........enjoy & chill bigfella

No need for a Buddhist retreat to be without internet. - just sign up with Gigaclear. That’ll do the trick.

[E63eeeeee...]

Sway said:

It's a matter of opinion that it's a fairer system.

Some, including me, think very minor parties gaining king maker status and a disproportionate amount of power, is a bad idea.

That applies if it's Cons/Reform or Labour/Greens.

Even worse is the bd muddle of 2nd/3rd party governments.

Then there's the fact that whatever the makeup, no one actually gets what they want. No party in government can be held to a manifesto that's had to be negotiated day one.

So in that instance, what exactly are people voting for under such a system?

It's fairer because it makes everyone's votes more equal in value. What meaning of fairness do you have in mind where FPTP wins? That's not really what happens with minority parties, their power is proportional to the votes they get, plus have you forgotten the DUP in 2017? Relying on mandate theory as an argument for FPTP is a bit of a joke, no government can be held to a manifesto in any case. And if you think that nobody gets what they want under PR, explain how that's worse than unfettered power going to a party that fully 67% of voters didn't choose.

[Dave200]

pheonix478 said:

Dave200 said:

rscott said:

Dave200 said:

Carl_VivaEspana said:

smn159 said:

The country has given their verdict on that and it's going to take a while to start to put right - but at least some grown ups are back in the room to start doing so.

as pointed out elsewhere, there's approx 9 million labour voters and 6 million public sector workers. The remainder of the 3 million were 2.9999m benefits scroungers and me (joke).

I exaggerate of course but it's unlikely that many in the 40%+ tax bracket voted red and therefore he has 4.5 years to win their vote otherwise Labour are back out of power in 5 years.

Again, absolute twaddle. Support for Labour across the socio-economic grades was broadly even, and voters from all groups were most likely to pick Labour.

The Ashcroft poll posted earlier backs that up too - https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2024/07/how-britain-... - shows that social grade AB were the group most likely to vote for Labour. That group is "Higher and intermediate managerial, administrative and professional occupations", so will have more higher rate tax payers than any other.

But the expat confidently said "it's unlikely that many in the 40%+ tax bracket voted red". So it must be true.

Does "social grade AB" actually translate to income though? I have no idea. "Higher and intermediate managerial, administrative and professional occupations", describes much of the public sector...

Yes. Social grade is highly correlated with income.

[Murph7355]

E63eeeeee... said:

Sway said:

It's a matter of opinion that it's a fairer system.

Some, including me, think very minor parties gaining king maker status and a disproportionate amount of power, is a bad idea.

That applies if it's Cons/Reform or Labour/Greens.

Even worse is the bd muddle of 2nd/3rd party governments.

Then there's the fact that whatever the makeup, no one actually gets what they want. No party in government can be held to a manifesto that's had to be negotiated day one.

So in that instance, what exactly are people voting for under such a system?

It's fairer because it makes everyone's votes more equal in value. What meaning of fairness do you have in mind where FPTP wins? That's not really what happens with minority parties, their power is proportional to the votes they get, plus have you forgotten the DUP in 2017? Relying on mandate theory as an argument for FPTP is a bit of a joke, no government can be held to a manifesto in any case. And if you think that nobody gets what they want under PR, explain how that's worse than unfettered power going to a party that fully 67% of voters didn't choose.

Bang on.

I'm sure rules could be written to mitigate the worst elements, and as mentioned elsewhere the second house could be used in some way.

But the current system gets more farcical every GE.

[pheonix478]

Dave200 said:

pheonix478 said:

Dave200 said:

rscott said:

Dave200 said:

Carl_VivaEspana said:

smn159 said:

The country has given their verdict on that and it's going to take a while to start to put right - but at least some grown ups are back in the room to start doing so.

as pointed out elsewhere, there's approx 9 million labour voters and 6 million public sector workers. The remainder of the 3 million were 2.9999m benefits scroungers and me (joke).

I exaggerate of course but it's unlikely that many in the 40%+ tax bracket voted red and therefore he has 4.5 years to win their vote otherwise Labour are back out of power in 5 years.

Again, absolute twaddle. Support for Labour across the socio-economic grades was broadly even, and voters from all groups were most likely to pick Labour.

The Ashcroft poll posted earlier backs that up too - https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2024/07/how-britain-... - shows that social grade AB were the group most likely to vote for Labour. That group is "Higher and intermediate managerial, administrative and professional occupations", so will have more higher rate tax payers than any other.

But the expat confidently said "it's unlikely that many in the 40%+ tax bracket voted red". So it must be true.

Does "social grade AB" actually translate to income though? I have no idea. "Higher and intermediate managerial, administrative and professional occupations", describes much of the public sector...

Yes. Social grade is highly correlated with income.

Thanks. Just seems an odd way to classify people rather than simply by income decile....

oh i see, when you look at the definition of C1 it's obvious the "higher and intermediate" bit of AB also applies to administrative and professional so I guess it would be well correlated to income. As you were!

[Dog Star]

hidetheelephants said:

bhstewie said:

How did Galloway get booted out so soon didn't he only get elected a couple of months back?

Odious man but what changed so quickly?

Protest vote plus the labour candidate getting the party endorsement withdrawn for the by election, then an actual labour candidate at the GE spanked him. Or at least that appears to be the case.

That is exactly the case - Labour polled almost nothing in the by-election.

Whilst I’m ecstatic that the turd has been kicked out (the Labour chap, Paul Waugh seems a genuinely nice bloke) I’m very aware that had the independent candidate, Tully, who stood in the by-election, stood in the GE that Galloway would have retained his seat. Luckily he didn’t.

Galloway basically polled the exact same voters he got last time - looks like he got a large tranche of the Muslim community based in a couple of hotspots block voting for him and the proportion of postal votes was very high at the by election. I’m not convinced at all that the people who were meant to do the postal votes even got sight of them.

Bloke is such a loser that he didn’t even turn up for the count - proves what he really thought of his constituency and the people he exploited for their votes.

He won’t be back for another go - historically he never has; he’s such a narcissist that I doubt he would show his stupid face.

Good riddance!

[Catweazle]

Some years ago, on this forum possibly after the 2015 election, I proposed that we retain FPTP but send those candidates who come second in the constituency to the House of Lords. Here are the numbers with one still to be announced:-

Conservative, 295.
Labour, 106.
Reform, 96.
SNP, 48.
Green, 39.
Lib Dem, 28.
Independents, 12.
Alliance, 5.
Plaid Cymru, 4.
DUP, 4.
WPB, 3.
Sinn Fein, 3.
UUP, 3.
SDLP, 2.
Independent Network, 1.
Newham Independents, 1.

[BikeBikeBIke]

Catweazle said:

Some years ago, on this forum possibly after the 2015 election, I proposed that we retain FPTP but send those candidates who come second in the constituency to the House of Lords.

That is bloody genius.

I'm opposed to a elected HoL but an "accidentally" elected HoL sounds ideal. And you get better candidates because second place has value. And you HoL is packed with opponents of the winners. (Who hopefully are sane.)

Like it.

No doubt someone will point out the flaw or the perverse incentive, but until then...