General Election July 2024

[Castrol for a knave]

If you take all votes cast and draw a line down the middle, around 54% voted for centre or centre left, and 38% for centre right and right.

If you wanted to be even more granular, you could drop SNP. Plaid and SF into the left/centre left and DUP to the right. That puts it at 58% to 39%, plus indies, but the NI votes are arguably not split on equivalent lines.

It shows where the Overton window sits

[CraigyMc]

Master Bean said:

What are the 2 seats not declared yet?

• South Basildon and East Thurrock (a recount is in progress, first count had reform up by 135 over labour)

• Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire (due to a "discrepancy" -- won't be announced until Saturday at the earliest)

[DeejRC]

Given that that Labour vote hasn’t moved Knave, in fact as Chevrons pointed out has declined from Corbyn, the Tory vote nearly halved, with 15% going to Reform and (the majority) of the rest going to Lib Dems, then I’d say it shows the window where it always is. Smack. In. The. Centre.
My household is 3 ppl, 2 mid 40s, 1 works, 1 is a “housewife” (dear God never call my wife that to her face) and 1 is an OAP widow, all 3 of us normally a blue vote. In this election I went for our local Indie, the other 2 went Lib Dem as they talked of cleaning up the water companies. I would posit that is not an uncommon pattern across the country, the LDs have benefitted hugely from the country giving them their vote instead of the Tories.
We are naturally an incredibly politically centrist country. Our politics is inherently very very dull and we like it that way. The Tories just found out what happens when you try and make things interesting!! Brutally so!

[BikeBikeBIke]

E63eeeeee... said:

In fairness there were a lot of classy acceptance and concession speeches last night.

+1

We can be pretty proud of our system and our nation.

[Countdown]

Starmer got fewer votes than Corbyn (500k less than Corbyn in 2019, nearly 5m less than Corbyn in 2017).

If the Tories can get somebody half decent and (more importantly) stop fighting amongst themselves there's a very good chance they can turn things around in the next 4/5 years.

[PurplePenguin]

BikeBikeBIke said:

E63eeeeee... said:

In fairness there were a lot of classy acceptance and concession speeches last night.

+1

We can be pretty proud of our system and our nation.

What system? The two party take it in turn system?

[E63eeeeee...]

Countdown said:

Starmer got fewer votes than Corbyn (500k less than Corbyn in 2019, nearly 5m less than Corbyn in 2017).

If the Tories can get somebody half decent and (more importantly) stop fighting amongst themselves there's a very good chance they can turn things around in the next 4/5 years.

Well, yes, in theory. They only have 120 people to choose from, and have you seen some of them?

[pheonix478]

Murph7355 said:

pheonix478 said:

Sorry but even ignoring his very dubious "friends" his stance on effectively surrendering Ukraine to Russia screams how unfit for any position of responsibility he was. The fact that prior to becoming leader not a single leader of his own party for decades had entrusted him with any kind of roll at all is pretty telling.

You can be decent and personable whilst holding very different views to others.

I pretty much entirely disagreed with Corbyn's politics, but that didn't make him (nor me) a bad person.

Edited to add, Frank Field and Tony Benn are better examples.

I'm not sure the actions of other leaders are great barometer either.

Edited by Murph7355 on Friday 5th July 16:32

The fact he's been an MP for as long as he has, despite being something of an outsider in his own party, suggests to me he is a likable bloke in person. However, there is nothing remotely decent about, to use only the most recent example, starving Ukraine of weapons and leaving them to the tender mercies of Russia. The policy he advocated is the very opposite of decent IMO, I mean even McDonnel (? His shadow chancellor) called him out on that one.

[E63eeeeee...]

PurplePenguin said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

E63eeeeee... said:

In fairness there were a lot of classy acceptance and concession speeches last night.

+1

We can be pretty proud of our system and our nation.

What system? The two party take it in turn system?

I think the peaceful transition of power system. Plenty of other countries will be envious of it.

[PurplePenguin]

E63eeeeee... said:

PurplePenguin said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

E63eeeeee... said:

In fairness there were a lot of classy acceptance and concession speeches last night.

+1

We can be pretty proud of our system and our nation.

What system? The two party take it in turn system?

I think the peaceful transition of power system. Plenty of other countries will be envious of it.

Sure - even if the system is inherently non-representative of the population.

[Leithen]

biggbn said:

No fan of Starmer, but Boris couldn't savage a one armed Teddy bear.

He’d find a way to produce an illegitimate cub from it though.

[biggbn]

119 said:

biggbn said:

Derek Smith said:

MC Bodge said:

biggbn said:

Say what you like about Corbyn but on old fashioned campaigning and very little budget he held his seat. That's not a protest vote, an anti tory vote, that's because people in that area like him. Pleased for the old bugger

He was very much the wrong man to lead Labour, but his short post-election interview on C4 was actually very good.

My son met him a number of times when he, Corbyn, was leader. He found him honest, direct and approachable. He appeared to take an interest in people around him. He reckoned that if he'd have voted for him in his constituency. If he got through to my lad, who meets a number of politicians in his job and is quite cynical when it comes to them, it might be easier to understand his popularity with his voters as he meets with a lot of them.

He has a cause he believes in and goes for it. He did not enrich himself while leader, so no chance of him being PM.

Always seemed a decent, personable fella to me. Portrayed as the exact opposite...wonder why?

Even you could use the internet to find out why.

I have never despised anyone more than that odious individual.

'Even you', that's nice. Each to their own man, you have every right to your opinion as I have to mine.

[biggbn]

hidetheelephants said:

biggbn said:

Derek Smith said:

MC Bodge said:

biggbn said:

Say what you like about Corbyn but on old fashioned campaigning and very little budget he held his seat. That's not a protest vote, an anti tory vote, that's because people in that area like him. Pleased for the old bugger

He was very much the wrong man to lead Labour, but his short post-election interview on C4 was actually very good.

My son met him a number of times when he, Corbyn, was leader. He found him honest, direct and approachable. He appeared to take an interest in people around him. He reckoned that if he'd have voted for him in his constituency. If he got through to my lad, who meets a number of politicians in his job and is quite cynical when it comes to them, it might be easier to understand his popularity with his voters as he meets with a lot of them.

He has a cause he believes in and goes for it. He did not enrich himself while leader, so no chance of him being PM.

Always seemed a decent, personable fella to me. Portrayed as the exact opposite...wonder why?

That might mean he's an effective constituency MP; he was a terrible leader, presented with an historically dire tory election campaign his instinct wasn't to moderate his policies and attempt to woo swing voters but to double down on policies that drove them to stay at home or vote for 3rd parties.

Poor leader, agreed. To much of an ideologue

[E63eeeeee...]

PurplePenguin said:

E63eeeeee... said:

PurplePenguin said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

E63eeeeee... said:

In fairness there were a lot of classy acceptance and concession speeches last night.

+1

We can be pretty proud of our system and our nation.

What system? The two party take it in turn system?

I think the peaceful transition of power system. Plenty of other countries will be envious of it.

Sure - even if the system is inherently non-representative of the population.

Oh, I'm completely with you on that, but it's still nice to be reminded that there are bits of it that aren't actually st as well.

[CraigyMc]

E63eeeeee... said:

Countdown said:

Starmer got fewer votes than Corbyn (500k less than Corbyn in 2019, nearly 5m less than Corbyn in 2017).

If the Tories can get somebody half decent and (more importantly) stop fighting amongst themselves there's a very good chance they can turn things around in the next 4/5 years.

Well, yes, in theory. They only have 120 people to choose from, and have you seen some of them?

Jenrick, Braverman, Francois, IDS, McVey, Davis.

With these people, the infighting won't stop.

[varsas]

E63eeeeee... said:

PurplePenguin said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

E63eeeeee... said:

In fairness there were a lot of classy acceptance and concession speeches last night.

+1

We can be pretty proud of our system and our nation.

What system? The two party take it in turn system?

I think the peaceful transition of power system. Plenty of other countries will be envious of it.

Agreed, and how maganamous both parties have been. No threats to take back power from the Tories (or anyone else who didn't like the result, SNP in Scotland etc) and no grand standing by Labour, just modest speeches that convey that they are pleased with the result but also that they understand the responsability of the task they have ahead of them.

[smn159]

CraigyMc said:

E63eeeeee... said:

Countdown said:

Starmer got fewer votes than Corbyn (500k less than Corbyn in 2019, nearly 5m less than Corbyn in 2017).

If the Tories can get somebody half decent and (more importantly) stop fighting amongst themselves there's a very good chance they can turn things around in the next 4/5 years.

Well, yes, in theory. They only have 120 people to choose from, and have you seen some of them?

Jenrick, Braverman, Francois, IDS, McVey, Davis.

With these people, the infighting won't stop.

Doubtful that they're moving as one back to the centre ground any time soon...

Likely going to target that 15% of Reform votes - if so split in the party is likely to get worse

[Sway]

E63eeeeee... said:

Sway said:

JNW1 said:

Who have been rewarded with over 70 seats in the House of Commons compared to just 4 for Reform. The Greens have the same number of seats as Reform having attracted less than half the number of votes.

And according to the BBC website Labour polled just under 34% of the vote nationally but now holds 64% of the seats in the HoC - can't remember an election in my lifetime where a party's gained an overall majority with such a small proportion of the vote, never mind one on the scale Labour's secured!

I fully understand the mechanics of how all this has come about but (IMHO) these results make our current electoral system very difficult to defend....

If we took this outcome as unchanged under a PR system (yes, I know, but it's all we can do) - the outcome there is just as difficult to defend!

That's a nonsense argument against a fairer system that's used across most of the civilised world. It's not all we can do either. If you've not already read the Ashcroft post-poll poll linked a few times earlier you should and see how many people would have voted differently under PR, never mind the difference it would make to turnout if more people's votes actually counted.

It's a matter of opinion that it's a fairer system.

Some, including me, think very minor parties gaining king maker status and a disproportionate amount of power, is a bad idea.

That applies if it's Cons/Reform or Labour/Greens.

Even worse is the bd muddle of 2nd/3rd party governments.

Then there's the fact that whatever the makeup, no one actually gets what they want. No party in government can be held to a manifesto that's had to be negotiated day one.

So in that instance, what exactly are people voting for under such a system?

[CraigyMc]

CraigyMc said:

Master Bean said:

What are the 2 seats not declared yet?

• South Basildon and East Thurrock (a recount is in progress, first count had reform up by 135 over labour)

• Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire (due to a "discrepancy" -- won't be announced until Saturday at the earliest)

South Basildon and East Thurrock just announced for reform.
Reform candidate won by 98 over the Labour candidate with the Tory a few thousand behind, but really quite a close 3-way race there.

[biggbn]

Murph7355 said:

pheonix478 said:

Sorry but even ignoring his very dubious "friends" his stance on effectively surrendering Ukraine to Russia screams how unfit for any position of responsibility he was. The fact that prior to becoming leader not a single leader of his own party for decades had entrusted him with any kind of roll at all is pretty telling.

You can be decent and personable whilst holding very different views to others.

I pretty much entirely disagreed with Corbyn's politics, but that didn't make him (nor me) a bad person.

Edited to add, Frank Field and Tony Benn are better examples.

I'm not sure the actions of other leaders are great barometer either.

Edited by Murph7355 on Friday 5th July 16:32

Bang on man.