Reform UK - A symptom of all that is wrong?
Discussion
The alternative to immigration is to incentivise sustainable family growth in the UK so each generation having 2.1 children (iirc the .1 accounts for childhood deaths). So you would need a tax system that supports working families upto 2.1 kids. Not sure how that would work in practice like say 1% cut in income tax for 1st child 1st cut for second etc of course that penalises those without kids etc but it would encourage nuclear families. Not sure it's a good thing but neither is immigration at a scale we can't manage
Nomme de Plum said:
We have an aging population and as a ratio of working to non working it was 4:1 many decades ago and now we are at 3:1 with a projection of 2:1 due to our overly low birth rate.
See Japan for how pear shaped their debt ratio / economy is going?
How will Reform, who advocate no additional immigration deal with a working population who will be overly burdened with tax to support those elderly non working types many who may well vote Reform?
It seems they offer simple but utterly unrealistic policies to complete problems.
Even if we manage to get many of the working age but economically inactive people back to work it will not reinstate the. Higher ratio.
That would be a reasonable point if the Tory-Labour uniparty said we need this much immigration, according to this criteria in order to achieve economic growth and a balanced budget. In fact they too say they will reduce immigration, stop people trafficking, protect wages, stop exploitation and all the rest. See Japan for how pear shaped their debt ratio / economy is going?
How will Reform, who advocate no additional immigration deal with a working population who will be overly burdened with tax to support those elderly non working types many who may well vote Reform?
It seems they offer simple but utterly unrealistic policies to complete problems.
Even if we manage to get many of the working age but economically inactive people back to work it will not reinstate the. Higher ratio.
They then appear to hope that illegal immigration, phoney student visas and failing to deport illegals will somehow produce an army of productive, tax paying residents. And if they distract us with stupid gimmicks like Rwanda or Blairs ludicrous citizenship test, and call anyone who raises doubts racist, then it will all go away.
It has been defacto policy since 1997 and so far it's only produced debt and division.
Worse stil it's done nothing to address why people living here (of all backgrounds) don't have enough children to sustain a stable population. Even if it "works" it only pushes the problem back a few years until the next generation are scratching around wondering who will pay their pensions (and the massive debts).
Elysium said:
There is obviously also an issue of demography with an aging population. But if our strategy is to keep bringing in young immigrants so that their children prop up our national insurance system, then that will ultimately fail.
More than half of the population take more out of the system than they put in. If the immigrants are younger and have more children, then they will be disproportionately in that group.
On this I'll agree with you. If I'm tired of subsidising the old now, I can't wait to see how I feel about them in 20 years time.More than half of the population take more out of the system than they put in. If the immigrants are younger and have more children, then they will be disproportionately in that group.
George Cottrell / Posh George was there in Clacton when the milkshake incident happened but have they been hiding him since?
Is he still part of this?
https://bylinetimes.com/2024/06/06/who-is-posh-geo...
Is he still part of this?
https://bylinetimes.com/2024/06/06/who-is-posh-geo...
Harry Flashman said:
This post encapsulates exactly why it isn't worth having economic arguments with the rabid anti-immigration crowd. "Importing people".
In a declining birth rate, ageing population, single economic centre, high-cost economy, these fools genuinely believe that we don't need more tax-paying citizens.
The same people moaning about the NHS denying that we need foreign workers to staff it. Or banging on about the lack of trades, and how unreliable they all are whilst wanting to send all the Poles home.
The more liberal media like to portray this as a people being lied to by the right wing. Personally, I think its beyond being credulous - it's just being thick.
But sure. Nigel and his merry band of populists have the answer. Stop the boats. This rot was epitomised by the Tory Brexit negotiations: things like the ludicrous focus on fishing rights whilst completely ignoring financial services, the engine of the British economy today.
Japan is an abject lesson. And one that no one wishes to learn.
This anti-intellectual, pro-scapegoat move in politics is as dangerous as it is depressing. One of the pro-Reform folk on here got half of it right: Tribalism. I'll go further. We don't discuss policy and it's consequences. We discuss belief. Close the borders, save our culture. Make America Great Again. Le Pen winning France. All these factions have great taglines, and policies designed to appeal to people who don't think very far down the line, but can be easily scared. And that's OK, that's democracy after all. We go with the majority.
The trouble is that, as France shows, the majority are just apathetic and don't vote. That's how the crazies get in. We have successfully neutered centrist politics by addicting our populations to things and easy credit, and blame, rather than political responsibility or a thirst for knowledge. Education is tailored to the lowest achieving, and we would rather furlough people in lockdown and give contracts to our cronies than fix our school system or health service.
The Spitfires over cricket fields Johnny-Foreigner-took-my-job bunch have a long, hard retirement coming. Their champions have identified their lowbrow whimsy, isolated them, cut them off from their neighbouring economies, sowed hate and distrust and emasculated Britain's economy. And the worst of these champions are now the kernel of Reform; a party captained by the cynical, with the bigoted as their footsoldiers.
Yeah, stop the bloody boats. That's going to fix it all.
That’s an over simplistic and inaccurate assessment. Of course the country needs immigration but it needs to be controlled, not predominantly uneducated young males arriving illegally. In a declining birth rate, ageing population, single economic centre, high-cost economy, these fools genuinely believe that we don't need more tax-paying citizens.
The same people moaning about the NHS denying that we need foreign workers to staff it. Or banging on about the lack of trades, and how unreliable they all are whilst wanting to send all the Poles home.
The more liberal media like to portray this as a people being lied to by the right wing. Personally, I think its beyond being credulous - it's just being thick.
But sure. Nigel and his merry band of populists have the answer. Stop the boats. This rot was epitomised by the Tory Brexit negotiations: things like the ludicrous focus on fishing rights whilst completely ignoring financial services, the engine of the British economy today.
Japan is an abject lesson. And one that no one wishes to learn.
This anti-intellectual, pro-scapegoat move in politics is as dangerous as it is depressing. One of the pro-Reform folk on here got half of it right: Tribalism. I'll go further. We don't discuss policy and it's consequences. We discuss belief. Close the borders, save our culture. Make America Great Again. Le Pen winning France. All these factions have great taglines, and policies designed to appeal to people who don't think very far down the line, but can be easily scared. And that's OK, that's democracy after all. We go with the majority.
The trouble is that, as France shows, the majority are just apathetic and don't vote. That's how the crazies get in. We have successfully neutered centrist politics by addicting our populations to things and easy credit, and blame, rather than political responsibility or a thirst for knowledge. Education is tailored to the lowest achieving, and we would rather furlough people in lockdown and give contracts to our cronies than fix our school system or health service.
The Spitfires over cricket fields Johnny-Foreigner-took-my-job bunch have a long, hard retirement coming. Their champions have identified their lowbrow whimsy, isolated them, cut them off from their neighbouring economies, sowed hate and distrust and emasculated Britain's economy. And the worst of these champions are now the kernel of Reform; a party captained by the cynical, with the bigoted as their footsoldiers.
Yeah, stop the bloody boats. That's going to fix it all.
Edited by Harry Flashman on Tuesday 2nd July 21:35
I don’t think Reform as a party are saying any different. They are attracting some racist support though which is a shame.
To those suggesting higher birth rates, nobody seems to have highlighted that more women nowadays don't want children. They now have a wide range of other interests available, certainly in the usual child bearing age groups, and this (selfish ?) change over many years isn't going to go away. Perhaps a massive increase in child allowances would persuade some ditherering females but I reckon that the % of ladies wanting children may continue to steadily drop.
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bad company said:
That’s an over simplistic and inaccurate assessment. Of course the country needs immigration but it needs to be controlled, not predominantly uneducated young males arriving illegally.
I don’t think Reform as a party are saying any different. They are attracting some racist support though which is a shame.
Unfortunately (for them) they seem to be riddled with racist candidates that are being slowly revealedI don’t think Reform as a party are saying any different. They are attracting some racist support though which is a shame.
bad company said:
That’s an over simplistic and inaccurate assessment. Of course the country needs immigration but it needs to be controlled, not predominantly uneducated young males arriving illegally.
I don’t think Reform as a party are saying any different. They are attracting some racist support though which is a shame.
Good news for you.I don’t think Reform as a party are saying any different. They are attracting some racist support though which is a shame.
The vast majority of immigrants are NOT illegally arriving young males.
The vast majority are legal.
Look it up. Learn some facts.
It would be a great thing if people could see past the political focus on small boats, designed to fool the people with little knowledge.
911hope said:
bad company said:
That’s an over simplistic and inaccurate assessment. Of course the country needs immigration but it needs to be controlled, not predominantly uneducated young males arriving illegally.
I don’t think Reform as a party are saying any different. They are attracting some racist support though which is a shame.
Good news for you.I don’t think Reform as a party are saying any different. They are attracting some racist support though which is a shame.
The vast majority of immigrants are NOT illegally arriving young males.
The vast majority are legal.
Look it up. Learn some facts.
It would be a great thing if people could see past the political focus on small boats, designed to fool the people with little knowledge.
911hope said:
bad company said:
That’s an over simplistic and inaccurate assessment. Of course the country needs immigration but it needs to be controlled, not predominantly uneducated young males arriving illegally.
I don’t think Reform as a party are saying any different. They are attracting some racist support though which is a shame.
Good news for you.I don’t think Reform as a party are saying any different. They are attracting some racist support though which is a shame.
The vast majority of immigrants are NOT illegally arriving young males.
The vast majority are legal.
Look it up. Learn some facts.
It would be a great thing if people could see past the political focus on small boats, designed to fool the people with little knowledge.
We all know that we need some immigration.
Edited by bad company on Wednesday 3rd July 09:51
President Merkin said:
That doesn't change anything. The vast majority are here legally. The cohort you dislike are a minority by a country mile, Farage hammers the message it's the other way round & you're falling for it.
I would say it's the other way round - the Conservatives for example have repeatedly pledged to reduce legal migration - but all the focus has been on illegal migration. For example, they only scrapped the dependents visa for master’s students this year, whereas Reform propose to scrap all dependent visas.Edited by fido on Wednesday 3rd July 10:12
Nomme de Plum said:
We have an aging population and as a ratio of working to non working it was 4:1 many decades ago and now we are at 3:1 with a projection of 2:1 due to our overly low birth rate.
See Japan for how pear shaped their debt ratio / economy is going?
How will Reform, who advocate no additional immigration deal with a working population who will be overly burdened with tax to support those elderly non working types many who may well vote Reform?
It seems they offer simple but utterly unrealistic policies to complete problems.
Even if we manage to get many of the working age but economically inactive people back to work it will not reinstate the. Higher ratio.
One the main reasons for the falling birth rate is just how hard it is to start a family these days.See Japan for how pear shaped their debt ratio / economy is going?
How will Reform, who advocate no additional immigration deal with a working population who will be overly burdened with tax to support those elderly non working types many who may well vote Reform?
It seems they offer simple but utterly unrealistic policies to complete problems.
Even if we manage to get many of the working age but economically inactive people back to work it will not reinstate the. Higher ratio.
No one has money. No one can afford houses. If you want to buy one you have to leave your local community. Which further destroys community cohesion, security etc.
They'd be mad to start a family in these circumstances.
Deal with low wages, deal with house prices, deal with mass immigration, deal with crime, deal with benefit scroungers etc.
Once you start protecting communities, allowing them to flourish (instead of actively damaging them), and enabling people to start families as they should be able to.... the birth rate will improve.
Nomme de Plum said:
Of course immigration can go on indefinitely. How else would you maintain a viable working economy?
Lack of housing and adequate services was a chosen Tory policy. We needed 3 years of Austerity post 2010 then we should have invested in our country and got stuff like the now defunct rail project, new hospitals, Nuclear power alongside the other renewables.
Not to build affordable homes was a choice and now we reap the rewards of inflated private rents and expensive property.
I’m currently at my Daughters in the states and their economy is flying and yes both the Government and the individual States do subsidise industries through various mechanisms.
Lack of housing and adequate services was a chosen Tory policy. We needed 3 years of Austerity post 2010 then we should have invested in our country and got stuff like the now defunct rail project, new hospitals, Nuclear power alongside the other renewables.
Not to build affordable homes was a choice and now we reap the rewards of inflated private rents and expensive property.
I’m currently at my Daughters in the states and their economy is flying and yes both the Government and the individual States do subsidise industries through various mechanisms.
Number go up = Good?
You have a curiously blinkered, almost fanatical view towards immigration.
Are you one yourself?
It's also sadly the same attitude that so many western governments adopted....and look at the mess it has created everywhere.
Edited by Dagnir on Wednesday 3rd July 10:26
fido said:
I would say it's the other way round - the Conservatives for example have repeatedly pledged to reduce legal migration - but all the focus has been on illegal migration.
In which case you need to explain BC's repeatedly expressed view on illegals. Is Farage's propaganda not working on him?Point is it's a con & it works on susceptible people.
Elysium said:
There is obviously also an issue of demography with an aging population. But if our strategy is to keep bringing in young immigrants so that their children prop up our national insurance system, then that will ultimately fail.
More than half of the population take more out of the system than they put in. If the immigrants are younger and have more children, then they will be disproportionately in that group.
The entire tax system is propped up by those paying higher and additional rate taxes.
Something has to change here, otherwise we are on a never ending tax escalator.
This is one of the reasons why I actually quite like the Reform idea of a tax rebate for private healthcare. I would also support means testing of the state pension. The ‘safety net’ of the welfare state only needs to be there for those who need it.
I would rather see people fund their own retirement than have them supported by the state who then grab back the cost with inheritance tax.
It is a ponzi scene but it should work for another 20 to 30 years and there really are no alternatives.More than half of the population take more out of the system than they put in. If the immigrants are younger and have more children, then they will be disproportionately in that group.
The entire tax system is propped up by those paying higher and additional rate taxes.
Something has to change here, otherwise we are on a never ending tax escalator.
This is one of the reasons why I actually quite like the Reform idea of a tax rebate for private healthcare. I would also support means testing of the state pension. The ‘safety net’ of the welfare state only needs to be there for those who need it.
I would rather see people fund their own retirement than have them supported by the state who then grab back the cost with inheritance tax.
As for the 50% who take out more than they put in, 20% of the UK population is retired and almost all fall into that category. Immigration gives you a new worker with no cost for education, who will then have children which we will educate but then they will work for 45 years.
Calculating the benefits of immigration is not just about how much tax they pay you also need to consider,
1. Indirect taxes, we know the ONS figure excludes employer NI, it also does not consider the output from the immigrant which will also generate tax.
2. The opportunity costs. For example the care industry is heavily dependant on immigration. Less immigration less care beds more people stuck in hospital which is far more expensive and stops others getting treatment.
Best of luck with means testing pensions. It's not on the reform policy list. Looking at the meetings I can see why. As for making private healthcare tax deductible its good to know reform have found the magic money tree.
said:
We'd all love such changes but there's few/any suggestions as to how it could be achieved and all the time that women find more enjoyable ways to fill in their lives there won't be much desire to produce even more babies.
President Merkin said:
In which case you need to explain BC's repeatedly expressed view on illegals. Is Farage's propaganda not working on him?
Point is it's a con & it works on susceptible people.
A con!! Really?Point is it's a con & it works on susceptible people.
From the government’s website and it’s going to be worse this year.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/irregular...
In the year ending June 2023, there were 52,530 irregular migrants detected entering the UK, up 17% from the year ending June 2022. 85% of these arrived via small boats.
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