Scottish Politics / Independence - Vol 12

[Rick_1138]

Evercross said:

hidetheelephants said:

Roderick Spode said:

Best case scenario for the destruction of the Sturgeonite SNP - Cherry stands and is elected as an MSP, seat or list doesn't matter.

If the party agrees there doesn't even need to be an election; with the corrupt list system all that is needed is to twist the arm of a list MSP and suggest they'd like to spend more time with their family, a quick amendment of the list to have a Cherry on the top and she's an MSP, except the SNP only have two(weirdly both called Emma) and I don't think either are likely to be amenable, although Emma Harper is stupid enough that she might be persuaded that being a member of the public is more influential than being an MSP. More likely Christine Grahame could be prevailed upon to retire and trigger a byelection.

Are you kidding guys. Joanna Cherry isn't getting within 100 miles of an MSP seat until Swinney's in a retiral home, Nippy is in the clink and the hoards of wee SNP woke activists who have been conditioned to believe that Cherry is a 'terf' and should be 'decapitated' are swept away.

Edited by Evercross on Monday 8th July 15:29

Don't dangle those delights....you tease!

[irc]

I am starting a campaign. "Swinney must Stay!".

Sadly, Kevin McKenna disagrees.

" Any period of reflection should err on the short and brutal side. And if it doesn’t conclude with the removal of John Swinney as leader then it will have been a waste of time. "

https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/viewpoint/...

[Klippie]

Swinney like Dumza before him needs to stay, its the only way we will be rid of the SNP leading up to the Holyrood elections, they need to keep fking things up as we cannot afford for them to regain some of the lost support...remember they got 30% of the vote just a bit more and they are back in it again.

Don't get me wrong I would love to be rid of them tomorrow but we are stuck with them for the time being, let them have their little internal fights which may produce exactly what we want, any revelations that appear may be very damaging.

[Leithen]

With the square root of fk all in their bank account there’s nothing to keep the SNP toeing the line.

It’ll be every man for themselves.

[Evercross]

irc said:

I am starting a campaign. "Swinney must Stay!".

Sadly, Kevin McKenna disagrees.

" Any period of reflection should err on the short and brutal side. And if it doesn’t conclude with the removal of John Swinney as leader then it will have been a waste of time. "

https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/viewpoint/...

Swinney is going nowhere. He's already got the excuses lined up that (a) the election was called only two weeks into his leadership and (b) it was about kicking out the Tories which is why Labour swept the board.

Both are nonsense of course, but if he believes it and says it and the party back him them more's the good.

Swinney absolutely must stay, but TBH a knee-jerk change of leader would probably be just as damaging. As I said before - the SNP are now in the same spiral of decline that the Tories were in precipitated by BoJo being ousted, quickly followed by two knee-jerk leaders. Any change of SNP leadership would be out of need rather than want and the voting public would be acutely aware of that.

[Waitforme]

Yip, Swinney is going nowhere, the pie eater says as much ….

Ian Blackford admits there is 'nobody else' to change SNP fortunes except John Swinney

[hidetheelephants]

Waitforme said:

Yip, Swinney is going nowhere, the pie eater says as much ….

Ian Blackford admits there is 'nobody else' to change SNP fortunes except John Swinney

He's a safe pair of hands to steer the titanic that is Sturgeonism onto the iceberg and then sink along with it. Ideally in about 18 months so they get thoroughly beaten in 2026.

[jtremlett]

Roderick Spode said:

...Injunctions lifted, names released, interdicts rescinded. Cherry knows the law inside out. Some very big names are going to be very embarrassed, and some will face a bit of bird...

Just wondering, do injunctions still apply when someone is in prison?

[hutchst]

Roderick Spode said:

I came here to post this laugh Sturgeon's performance on Thursday night should be included in future reference matter on the subject, as a prime example of NPD in action. The ability of the person to distance themselves impassively from situations they have created, the ability to blame others and genuinely believe in their own minds that they themselves are innocent, and to feel zero shame or culpability for situations of their creation. Sturgeon embodies all these characteristics effortlessly. Even when (hopefully) Poileas Alba come knocking with an arrest warrant she will fully believe that she is innocent, despite (alleged) evidence to the contrary.

No, it's our fault. We're all misogynstic, homophobic and probably racist.

[cuprabob]

MV Alfred chartered for another 6 months at £1m per month.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24439808.new-s...

[Taffer]

cuprabob said:

MV Alfred chartered for another 6 months at £1m per month.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24439808.new-s...

Just shows that even Calmac don't believe the latest August 19th handover date for the Sannox, or have belief that she'll be reliable in service.



Mhairi Black putting on a show at The Fringe - Christ alive..........

https://x.com/MhairiBlack/status/18106399206265487...

[Mercdriver]

What’s the title of her show? How not to run a country? How to fiddle your expenses and not get caught?

[Roderick Spode]

Taffer said:

Mhairi Black putting on a show at The Fringe - Christ alive..........

https://x.com/MhairiBlack/status/18106399206265487...

Jumping fk. It's incredible that there are actually sycophants out there who will exchange ready currency to listen to M'hairy Back eschew verbal bovine effluent. I'd sooner insert knitting needles into my gentleman's sausage. Imagine being that deluded and enthralled in the cult.

[dxg]

Will there be kit-kats at the interval?

[Roderick Spode]

dxg said:

Will there be kit-kats at the interval?

Only the powdered variety, sold by the gram.

[shtu]

Waitforme said:

Yip, Swinney is going nowhere, the pie eater says as much ….

Ian Blackford admits there is 'nobody else' to change SNP fortunes except John Swinney

y'see, that's the baffling part.

If they had any sense at all, this is the perfect moment to take an axe to the whole damn thing, P45s all round and start over with a refocused core group, less rainbow-obsessed, and a focus on y'know, governing. Arguably, Humza should have done exactly that when he had the opportunity.

Instead, they seem fixated on 1) Blaming the electorate for not understanding that the SNP are right, 2) Fighting like cats in a sack for the dwindling number of posts.

Every minute they carry on down that path is a minute wasted. 2026 is sooner than you think.

[Rick_1138]

Roderick Spode said:

dxg said:

Will there be kit-kats at the interval?

Only the powdered variety, sold by the gram.

"Aye, a 5 Gram bag....its a leaving doo!"

[irc]

But it is vastly entertaining. Take at look at the 2021 Holyrood results. The SNP got 64 MSPs. Of those 62 were FPTP winners. This high percentage of FPTP seats was forecast long before the election. With a national vote share of 46.5% the SNP were always going to win the vast majority of FPTP seats.

This allowed them to push the SNP 1, Green 2 strategy. It worked fairly well as can be seen by the Green vote. 0.6% constituency but 6.2% on the list. So around 6% voted SNP1 Green 2. It worked. 66 SNP plus 6 Green list MSPs. Total 72 Nationalists.

This time in 2026. The SNP are obviously getting nowhere near 64 FPTP MSPs. People don't vote exactly the same in Westminster and Holyrood elections so they won't necessarily be down to 9 FPTP MSPs. If, however they get 35% of the national vote that won't get them that many more FPTPs. Say they get a total of between 15 and 20. They are then going to be looking for up to 3 list MSPs from the 8 regions. Top the list and you are certain of a seat. Second top, probably. Third top it depends how many FPTP seats the SNP get in that region.

So the top 2 places in the 8 regional lists are the gravy train. 16 places. To be fought over by 39 MPs who lost their seat on Thursday along with most of the current SNP FPTP MPs who will be losing their FPTP seats.

And of course now that the SNP have given the Greens a shot at govt. They are umlikely to go back to 0.3% FPTP polling. They will split the indy vote in a few places as well as maybe getting the same number list seats.

Then again if Reform stand and get anywhere near their 7% from llast week they could get 6 or 8 list seats. Maybe taking them from the Greens.

So allowing for any that retire or those that grab places in other public sector gravy trains before 2026 you might have over 50 former MPs and MSPs fighting for the top 16 list places.

That is before you allow for any of the footsoldiers, the councilors, the asssistants, the researchers, who reckon they have served their apprenticeship and are due a shot at the big time. They didn't join the SNP just to knock on doors, deliver leaflets, and troll online forums.

Interesting times ahead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parlia...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Scottish_Par...

[alangla]

irc said:

Then again if Reform stand and get anywhere near their 7% from llast week they could get 6 or 8 list seats. Maybe taking them from the Greens.

Given the Tories don’t hold many constituencies (I make it 5 out of their 31 total MSPs, concentrated in the south) and assuming Reform decide to field constituency candidates this time rather than just list as in 2021, is it not more likely that the Tories will find their number of list MSPs eroded?

Personally I doubt whether Tice/Farage will be all that bothered about Holyrood and may just field token list candidates without a huge amount of publicity.

It’s also very possible, IMO that we could see a repeat of the Westminster voting pattern and the Tory vote holds in their 5 at least, if not on the list. Either way, the main source of SNP seats in 2026 appears to be the list and it’s going to be entertaining watching them fight like ferrets in a sack for positions.

[irc]

alangla said:

Given the Tories don’t hold many constituencies (I make it 5 out of their 31 total MSPs, concentrated in the south) and assuming Reform decide to field constituency candidates this time rather than just list as in 2021, is it not more likely that the Tories will find their number of list MSPs eroded?

Personally I doubt whether Tice/Farage will be all that bothered about Holyrood and may just field token list candidates without a huge amount of publicity.

The Tories will lose seats if their list vote goes down. It is complicated and will vary from region to region. Last time they got 2 in Glasgow, just pipping the Greens. If the Green vote holds up and the Tories dip by 2% they will lose a seat to the Greens. If Reform stood and got past around 6% the lost Tory seat would go to them.

In other regions where the GReen vote is lower ii may be the Greens that lose.

I am getting a sore head looking at it. There is a clear explanation here.

https://ballotbox.scot/scottish-parliament/ams-exp...