Macron calls a national election
Discussion
President Merkin said:
I agree on Macron, he has been leading on Ukraine & Russia. The perennial issue with these elections is they tell us very little about the direction of Europe. People vote on local issues on a whim, there is no such thing as a continent wide European polity however much the excitable right wish it were so for their own various self justifcations. Pro Europeans ought to acknowledge this too, for the same reasons.
This in spades.It's why the European Parliament has bugger all real power and why every nation regularly treats EU parliamentary elections as nothing more than an opportunity for a protest vote against their own domestic politicians.
Macron's gamble is that the RN's real level of support in France is a lot lower than the EU election results would suggest due to various flavours of protest voting. Credibility feeds on itself, so the longer the illusion remains that RN has really significant support, the more support RN will actually accrue. Therefore he needs to try burst their bubble ASAP, hence the snap election. Its announcement immediately moves the conversation on from "RN won the EU parliamentary election" and brings Macron straight back to the top of the news agenda. It's a very Macron move. He's a very sharp political operator and is prepared to take big political risks if the gamble's payout looks reasonable.
The difference between Sunak and Macron's snap election announcements couldn't be more stark.
Edited by ATG on Monday 10th June 12:10
Murph7355 said:
soupdragon1 said:
....
In summary, I think its absolutely fair to partly label the French snap election as pro EU/Anti EU. Not in its entirety of course, but certainly as a pointer on the longer term direction of travel. The French are brave enough to protest vote for the European parliament, but Macron is banking on common sense prevailing when it comes to national government.
What is "common sense" in this context?In summary, I think its absolutely fair to partly label the French snap election as pro EU/Anti EU. Not in its entirety of course, but certainly as a pointer on the longer term direction of travel. The French are brave enough to protest vote for the European parliament, but Macron is banking on common sense prevailing when it comes to national government.
Sticking with the status quo and letting Macron do what he wants?
This is part of the problem. People are spiking the EU vote because they feel like they are not being listened to by any of the political layers they are subjected to.
If Macron wins this and takes it as carte blanche to keep doing what he has been, the right will gain more momentum and soon the big "surprise" will be people like Macron getting kicked in the bawbag.
That will be the time to worry, and the status quo lovers will be shocked.
If he wins, he needs to realise he will have done so by the skin of his teeth, no matter what the result. And he needs to start listening to why the people are upset enough to make a mockery of the EU voting. Current politicians seem incapable of doing this... Even making unholy coalitions in some countries simply to ostracise the right wingers people voted for. This is a massive, massive mistake IMO. But gets dismissed as "ah but the people saw sense".... Hmmmmm.
Will also lead to very interesting times with the EU parliament if more states vote this way. An EU layer choc-full of right wing parties who typically aren't fans of the EU. Worked well for the UK.
And yes, of course people are upset - we see it all across Europe. Its a tough gig, not getting everything you want in life, isn't it? If going solo is the answer, all I can say is good luck. That's what it boils down to with the nationalism creep across Europe. If you don't like immigration, you need to leave the EU. Pretty simple stuff here.
I'll say one thing around the French. They want reform in Europe and that opportunity becomes easier with the recent votes, so I guess that will show that democracy is still working. They understand that the things they are unhappy about they will get their voice heard on the European stage. Thats healthy democracy. Which is why I think that Macron calling the snap election will draw that distinction between EU change thats desired, but not going as far as suggesting that they need wholesale Govt change at the national level. The French understand pretty well the cause and effect of their choices and I think Macron is banking on judging that sentiment correctly. Thats my take anyway, but I'm far from educated on the matter.
And in Ireland, there just isn't the electoral numbers on the 'Ireland is full' ticket which is why the celebrations are for the 'Ireland is full' candidates getting elected to the local council, where they can exert their influence on the frequency of bin collections. Pretty damn strange if you ask me, but its a way of demonstrating their frustration, so I guess there is at least some logic there.
My biggest frustration though is lack of understanding of politics within the electorate and the weasels that play into that. There are genuinely people in Ireland that believe they can close the borders by electing their preferred candidates and all the while, remaining in the EU. Unfortunately, there are lots of people that believe this type of rhetoric, which is part of the problem too.
soupdragon1 said:
If going solo is the answer, all I can say is good luck. That's what it boils down to with the nationalism creep across Europe. If you don't like immigration, you need to leave the EU.
I don't think it means going solo indefinitely. It does mean being outside the EU for now, but the status quo appears far from stable. Anyone leaving the EU has a partner already waiting in the wings.Good article here on Le Pen from 2022
No "Frexit" but basically, screw Europe we will apply what we choose to knowing France is too big a part of the EU to be anything other than fined, which they then won't pay.
https://www.cer.eu/insights/what-would-president-l...
No "Frexit" but basically, screw Europe we will apply what we choose to knowing France is too big a part of the EU to be anything other than fined, which they then won't pay.
https://www.cer.eu/insights/what-would-president-l...
ATG said:
This in spades.
It's why the European Parliament has bugger all real power and why every nation regularly treats EU parliamentary elections as nothing more than an opportunity for a protest vote against their own domestic politicians.
Macron's gamble is that the RN's real level of support in France is a lot lower than the EU election results would suggest due to various flavours of protest voting. Credibility feeds on itself, so the longer the illusion remains that RN has really significant support, the more support RN will actually accrue. Therefore he needs to try burst their bubble ASAP, hence the snap election. Its announcement immediately moves the conversation on from "RN won the EU parliamentary election" and brings Macron straight back to the top of the news agenda. It's a very Macron move. He's a very sharp political operator and is prepared to take big political risks if the gamble's payout looks reasonable.
The difference between Sunak and Macron's snap election announcements couldn't be more stark.
I'm seeing this gamble more akin to Cameron's with the EU ref.It's why the European Parliament has bugger all real power and why every nation regularly treats EU parliamentary elections as nothing more than an opportunity for a protest vote against their own domestic politicians.
Macron's gamble is that the RN's real level of support in France is a lot lower than the EU election results would suggest due to various flavours of protest voting. Credibility feeds on itself, so the longer the illusion remains that RN has really significant support, the more support RN will actually accrue. Therefore he needs to try burst their bubble ASAP, hence the snap election. Its announcement immediately moves the conversation on from "RN won the EU parliamentary election" and brings Macron straight back to the top of the news agenda. It's a very Macron move. He's a very sharp political operator and is prepared to take big political risks if the gamble's payout looks reasonable.
The difference between Sunak and Macron's snap election announcements couldn't be more stark.
Sunak and the Tories have known the fame is up on this election for a while I think. At least this way he gets a nice summer break when he hands in his papers
The gamble Macron is taking is similar to Cameron's. I think Macron will win it. But it's a big risk.
The bigger risk is him winning it and then ignoring the "right wing" sentiment.
I'm also not convinced this about, or at least solely about, immigration.
Murph7355 said:
The gamble Macron is taking is similar to Cameron's. I think Macron will win it. But it's a big risk.
Interestingly she is quite pro-UK and wants more co-operation if she wins on a nation-state basis rather than EU. I'm not a fan of her, but only two countries can really force (effective) change of the EU and that's Germany and France.
hidetheelephants said:
Kermit power said:
Read their 22 point mission statement and then see if you can figure out how you'd implement it without leaving the EU.
That's a given, but it would take at least one term in office to boil the frog and persuade the populace that they're "very sorry but in order to deliver the desired change we need Frexit". Until then it's a "secret".Gecko1978 said:
ukwill said:
Will be interesting to see how the predominantly London-centric Pro-Remain #FBPE Twitter echo chamber handle their beloved Europe turning into a seething mass of "bigoted, racist Gammons".
No one replied to this yet. It's a solid point seems to me democracy is a double edged sword tell people you want to empower then, then get results you don't like Brexit, Far right etc.If an extreme populist party is racking up 10-20% of the vote, then they should be getting 10-20% of the MPs, and it's up to the more moderate parties to not only promise but also implement alternative strategies that turn voters back away from the extremes. If they fail to do that and the extreme parties keep increasing their vote share, then there comes a time at which they get to have their go in the hotseat. To my mind, few things are more undemocratic than mainstream parties refusing to even attempt to cooperate with extreme parties because they don't like their politics.
The double-edged sword in that setup for the extreme parties is that the time comes where they do have to deliver or get voted out. To me, the worst thing about FPTP is that it deprived us of that. In an alternate reality, had we had PR in 2015, then we would at least have had 13 months of seeing how UKIP performed in a coalition with the Conservatives before the Brexit referendum. We'll never know whether that would have made a difference to the outcome of the referendum, but given what happened to the LibDems after being held to account for their actual actions rather than just their words in the previous coalition, I think we should at least have been given the chance to find out, rather than have UKIP effectively push through the biggest political change in generations without ever being held accountable for their actions.
hidetheelephants said:
Kermit power said:
Read their 22 point mission statement and then see if you can figure out how you'd implement it without leaving the EU.
That's a given, but it would take at least one term in office to boil the frog and persuade the populace that they're "very sorry but in order to deliver the desired change we need Frexit". Until then it's a "secret".So she would just implement laws that are in the interest of France and ignore the fines from Europe... what are the EU going to do? EU doesn't fear Frexit per se, they fear one of the largest members ignoring them, stalling legislation, not co-operating and removing their ability to move towards a great European "ideal"
vaud said:
hidetheelephants said:
Kermit power said:
Read their 22 point mission statement and then see if you can figure out how you'd implement it without leaving the EU.
That's a given, but it would take at least one term in office to boil the frog and persuade the populace that they're "very sorry but in order to deliver the desired change we need Frexit". Until then it's a "secret".So she would just implement laws that are in the interest of France and ignore the fines from Europe... what are the EU going to do? EU doesn't fear Frexit per se, they fear one of the largest members ignoring them, stalling legislation, not co-operating and removing their ability to move towards a great European "ideal"
Wills2 said:
He doesn't control the National Assembly or the Senate, he'll keep his job come what may so for him what is the risk?
He risks further legitimising the RN if they advance on the however many (88?) seats they already hold in the national assembly. While it is true Macron is already in a mess wrt to his own party there, if he ends up letting Le Pen's bunch increase their vote share while it's further seen that voters are rejecting him (by way of his party) it's not a good look at all I'd suggest. Especially if he's then further seen to be simply using his presidential powers to stifle the choice of 'the people' and ignoring them.
We'll see soon enough if his gamble that he would be able to tap into the sudden outrage of the french at how unedifying it is for them to be seen to allow the far right to be the dominant party in european elections to get himself a bigger share of the vote in his own national elections. A french colleague seems to think it was a very cunning move and would definitely outflank Le Pen but if Macron was quite as smart as he thinks he is, he wouldn't have been in the situation he's in too....
ATG said:
Globalist WEF droid = someone who understands economics, doesn't believe in fairies or the divine right to be given free s
t by the cosmos or other taxpayers.
How’s that ’Build Back Better’ working out for you?t by the cosmos or other taxpayers.Maybe you’re doing really well out of it, but for myself and a great many others that I know, we’re a dam sight poorer than we were five years ago.
The same could seemingly be said of France, USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand or anywhere else where WEF approved ‘Leaders’ have been at the helm.
Sorry, but ‘WEF’ and financial prosperity for the masses has repeatedly proved to be nothing more than an oxymoron.
Europe seems to have comprehensively rejected Globalism.
Marine Le Pen’s party trounced Emmanuel Macron’s party in France, winning 34% of the vote, with Macron calling a snap election.
Belgium’s Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo, resigned after the right-wing in Belgium made gains.
Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing party is set to win the most seats in Italy.
Germany’s ruling coalition were defeated by conservatives, with AfD finishing second.
Numerous anti-immigration candidates were elected in Ireland.
Geert Wilders’ party in the Netherlands gained many seats to become the second largest party.
In Austria, the right-wing FPÖ party doubled their number of seats to become the largest party.
In Spain, the right-wing Vox party has become the third largest party with around 10% of the votes.
Marine Le Pen’s party trounced Emmanuel Macron’s party in France, winning 34% of the vote, with Macron calling a snap election.
Belgium’s Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo, resigned after the right-wing in Belgium made gains.
Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing party is set to win the most seats in Italy.
Germany’s ruling coalition were defeated by conservatives, with AfD finishing second.
Numerous anti-immigration candidates were elected in Ireland.
Geert Wilders’ party in the Netherlands gained many seats to become the second largest party.
In Austria, the right-wing FPÖ party doubled their number of seats to become the largest party.
In Spain, the right-wing Vox party has become the third largest party with around 10% of the votes.
Edited by Guybrush on Monday 10th June 16:40
Kermit power said:
If you have actual democracy, then you should live and die by that sword.
If an extreme populist party is racking up 10-20% of the vote, then they should be getting 10-20% of the MPs, and it's up to the more moderate parties to not only promise but also implement alternative strategies that turn voters back away from the extremes. If they fail to do that and the extreme parties keep increasing their vote share, then there comes a time at which they get to have their go in the hotseat. To my mind, few things are more undemocratic than mainstream parties refusing to even attempt to cooperate with extreme parties because they don't like their politics.
The double-edged sword in that setup for the extreme parties is that the time comes where they do have to deliver or get voted out. To me, the worst thing about FPTP is that it deprived us of that. In an alternate reality, had we had PR in 2015, then we would at least have had 13 months of seeing how UKIP performed in a coalition with the Conservatives before the Brexit referendum. We'll never know whether that would have made a difference to the outcome of the referendum, but given what happened to the LibDems after being held to account for their actual actions rather than just their words in the previous coalition, I think we should at least have been given the chance to find out, rather than have UKIP effectively push through the biggest political change in generations without ever being held accountable for their actions.
Good post. In reference to the bit around moderate parties implementing alternative strategies, the difficulty is that the bigger parties will be (relatively) truthful in their promises, whereas some of the more extreme parties are offering undeliverable and empty promises. So its hard to broaden your message to some parts of the argument.If an extreme populist party is racking up 10-20% of the vote, then they should be getting 10-20% of the MPs, and it's up to the more moderate parties to not only promise but also implement alternative strategies that turn voters back away from the extremes. If they fail to do that and the extreme parties keep increasing their vote share, then there comes a time at which they get to have their go in the hotseat. To my mind, few things are more undemocratic than mainstream parties refusing to even attempt to cooperate with extreme parties because they don't like their politics.
The double-edged sword in that setup for the extreme parties is that the time comes where they do have to deliver or get voted out. To me, the worst thing about FPTP is that it deprived us of that. In an alternate reality, had we had PR in 2015, then we would at least have had 13 months of seeing how UKIP performed in a coalition with the Conservatives before the Brexit referendum. We'll never know whether that would have made a difference to the outcome of the referendum, but given what happened to the LibDems after being held to account for their actual actions rather than just their words in the previous coalition, I think we should at least have been given the chance to find out, rather than have UKIP effectively push through the biggest political change in generations without ever being held accountable for their actions.
I keep referring to the Irish elections as I've been keeping an eye on it. So the Nationalist party have had their 1st ever seat, Dublin City Council. He was stood outside today, behind the microphone, saying that 'Ireland belongs to the Irish people!!!!' to much delight of some of his fans and voters. He's been elected to the City council FFS. And Ireland is hugely pro-EU. Its literally impossible for 'Ireland to belong to the Irish people' while in the EU. And he's going to change it all, sitting around the council table talking about bin collections and street lamps coming on 30 minutes early in cloudy weather!? Dear me. Dog whistling to get a job that he probably wouldn't be suitable for otherwise.
And just to add some more comedy, he also ran as an MEP - he got eliminated in last place with something like 3k votes lol.
So yeah, I fully agree with your sentiment on this, but some of these guys/smaller parties just play by different rules and have different agendas. The disturbing thing is, some refugees in Ireland keep having to move around (living in tents) and some of these far right supporters, and even councillors, are putting on social media where they have moved to. Then the dregs off society come along and threaten them, destroy their tents and in one particular case, setting a row of tents on fire. I would struggle to sit across a council table and look one of those guys in the eye, knowing what steps they've taken to get their votes. Shudder.
Edited by soupdragon1 on Monday 10th June 16:46
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