How Far Will House Prices Fall? [Volume 6]
Discussion
OutInTheShed said:
If they slashed the IHT threshold and put the rate up, then we'd have less inherited deposits pushing prices up.
Many already gifting their main home to their kids, and there is no CGT or IHT as long as they are alive 7 years after. (and no stamp duty, if mortgage paid already)bank of mom and dad do not increase prices, demand pushes. You can even say, it helps to create less people on rental spectrum overall.
ooid said:
Many already gifting their main home to their kids, and there is no CGT or IHT as long as they are alive 7 years after. (and no stamp duty, if mortgage paid already)
bank of mom and dad do not increase prices, demand pushes. You can even say, it helps to create less people on rental spectrum overall.
Expectation of two earners is what drives prices up and thus penalises single people.bank of mom and dad do not increase prices, demand pushes. You can even say, it helps to create less people on rental spectrum overall.
coanda said:
ooid said:
Many already gifting their main home to their kids, and there is no CGT or IHT as long as they are alive 7 years after. (and no stamp duty, if mortgage paid already)
bank of mom and dad do not increase prices, demand pushes. You can even say, it helps to create less people on rental spectrum overall.
Expectation of two earners is what drives prices up and thus penalises single people.bank of mom and dad do not increase prices, demand pushes. You can even say, it helps to create less people on rental spectrum overall.
SunsetZed said:
coanda said:
ooid said:
Many already gifting their main home to their kids, and there is no CGT or IHT as long as they are alive 7 years after. (and no stamp duty, if mortgage paid already)
bank of mom and dad do not increase prices, demand pushes. You can even say, it helps to create less people on rental spectrum overall.
Expectation of two earners is what drives prices up and thus penalises single people.bank of mom and dad do not increase prices, demand pushes. You can even say, it helps to create less people on rental spectrum overall.
My partner is Czech and owns a property there, so I'm over there quite a lot. What always strikes me is how many of the houses are detatched and of generous size, particlarly in the regional towns and villages.
The standard of living there is generally lower, for a Czech person an iphone is a lot more expensive for example, as wages are lower (Czech doesn't have the Euro) but these types of goods can actually be more expensive than in the UK if you calculate the price in pounds or dollars. But even a working class person there can be comparatively rich compared with a UK counterpart in terms of land and property size.
I'm drawn to the lifestyle there, having a big house in the country for cheap does appeal. But my partner prefers life in the UK as there's more good shops, restaurants, bars, cafes, play centers for kids, etc.
Edited by Six Potter on Thursday 20th June 14:23
Some fresh data of buyers profile from a known agency. Mostly, central London market. (Q1, 2024)
Nationality
British - 48%
Europe - 38%
Middle East - 4%
America - 7%
Australia - 3%
Type
FTB - 38%
BTL - 10%
Owner-occupier - 41%
Parents gift for their kids - 11%
Age
<30 - 21%
30-40 - 41%
41-60 - 31%
60> - 7%
Funds
All cash - 55%
75%-90% LTV - 17%
50%-75% LTV - 24%
<50% LTV - 4%
Nationality
British - 48%
Europe - 38%
Middle East - 4%
America - 7%
Australia - 3%
Type
FTB - 38%
BTL - 10%
Owner-occupier - 41%
Parents gift for their kids - 11%
Age
<30 - 21%
30-40 - 41%
41-60 - 31%
60> - 7%
Funds
All cash - 55%
75%-90% LTV - 17%
50%-75% LTV - 24%
<50% LTV - 4%
skwdenyer said:
Sheepshanks said:
SunsetZed said:
We gain an outright win in the substandard homes category - we have the highest proportion.
And we are Europeans.
I’m not sure what political structuring has to do with an inability to build houses. That’s entirely to do with the government and council we had, would have had, and still have, irrespective of the point you’re referring to.
Maybe if people focussed on the tossers they keep voting for and fixing our stupid system, we’d have a better lot.
You can’t complain, this has been decades in the making, and you’ve been a participant in it.
My 2p, and something I’d vote for time and again… vast reform to planning.
Our system is utterly borked and it’s just like a lottery win for random land owners.
Land should be worth what it’s worth. It’s only worth so much and gets built on the way it is because councils and government pick winners.
Policy should determine it all. Green belt is even a nonsense. All that should matter is sustainability and value to society.
ooid said:
OutInTheShed said:
If they slashed the IHT threshold and put the rate up, then we'd have less inherited deposits pushing prices up.
Many already gifting their main home to their kids, and there is no CGT or IHT as long as they are alive 7 years after. (and no stamp duty, if mortgage paid already)bank of mom and dad do not increase prices, demand pushes. You can even say, it helps to create less people on rental spectrum overall.
Without gifted deposits the vast majority of under 40's wouldn't be able to get on the ladder in the S/E, I know a couple of single HENRY's and even they had parental support with the deposit despite their six figure annual incomes.
With the general election looming and the potential BOE rate cut in August the housing market seems completely dead at the moment.
With working returning to the office twice a week or more the uplift of prices at the coast seems to be subsiding and returning back to normal, have a few workmates based in Devon/Cornwall and people are having to move back nearer to London and that's being reflected in the house prices.
Example property here in Devon with sea views which back in 21/22 would have made the original asking price.
With the general election looming and the potential BOE rate cut in August the housing market seems completely dead at the moment.
With working returning to the office twice a week or more the uplift of prices at the coast seems to be subsiding and returning back to normal, have a few workmates based in Devon/Cornwall and people are having to move back nearer to London and that's being reflected in the house prices.
Example property here in Devon with sea views which back in 21/22 would have made the original asking price.
You've got little hope as a single person in London these days unless you're willing to of course cut your cloth and go to a cheap location (which are often cheap for a reason...
My theory is that most people have spent so long saving/renting and living in OK locations that by the time they get to an age that they might possibly be in a position with their deposit to buy somewhere cheap - they're about 30 something and are unwilling to live in that cheapo location because they've grown up and its just unappetising to do such a thing at 35 vs 25.
We've seen property still moving in SW/SE London borders in Zone 2 - we sold out own house at 5% off asking (which was 5% above what we paid in 2020), the house we are buying had 4 offers in two days and went to sealed bids. Lots of other good stuff in strong school/transport locations are still moving ok.
The stuff out in the sticks is not moving all that well as above, and I would also say that properties that are nearer to 'turnkey' move much much faster with the cost of work as it is.
My theory is that most people have spent so long saving/renting and living in OK locations that by the time they get to an age that they might possibly be in a position with their deposit to buy somewhere cheap - they're about 30 something and are unwilling to live in that cheapo location because they've grown up and its just unappetising to do such a thing at 35 vs 25.
We've seen property still moving in SW/SE London borders in Zone 2 - we sold out own house at 5% off asking (which was 5% above what we paid in 2020), the house we are buying had 4 offers in two days and went to sealed bids. Lots of other good stuff in strong school/transport locations are still moving ok.
The stuff out in the sticks is not moving all that well as above, and I would also say that properties that are nearer to 'turnkey' move much much faster with the cost of work as it is.
okgo said:
You've got little hope as a single person in London these days unless you're willing to of course cut your cloth and go to a cheap location (which are often cheap for a reason...
My theory is that most people have spent so long saving/renting and living in OK locations that by the time they get to an age that they might possibly be in a position with their deposit to buy somewhere cheap - they're about 30 something and are unwilling to live in that cheapo location because they've grown up and its just unappetising to do such a thing at 35 vs 25.
We've seen property still moving in SW/SE London borders in Zone 2 - we sold out own house at 5% off asking (which was 5% above what we paid in 2020), the house we are buying had 4 offers in two days and went to sealed bids. Lots of other good stuff in strong school/transport locations are still moving ok.
The stuff out in the sticks is not moving all that well as above, and I would also say that properties that are nearer to 'turnkey' move much much faster with the cost of work as it is.
I would agree with this. When my son was in Liverpool, I was going to put a £50k deposit for him to get on the housing ladder. He could have easily bought a three bed place for £150k to £200k but he wasn't willing to accept anything below £230k at the time due to standard and location.My theory is that most people have spent so long saving/renting and living in OK locations that by the time they get to an age that they might possibly be in a position with their deposit to buy somewhere cheap - they're about 30 something and are unwilling to live in that cheapo location because they've grown up and its just unappetising to do such a thing at 35 vs 25.
We've seen property still moving in SW/SE London borders in Zone 2 - we sold out own house at 5% off asking (which was 5% above what we paid in 2020), the house we are buying had 4 offers in two days and went to sealed bids. Lots of other good stuff in strong school/transport locations are still moving ok.
The stuff out in the sticks is not moving all that well as above, and I would also say that properties that are nearer to 'turnkey' move much much faster with the cost of work as it is.
Now, I still have that £50k deposit available for him but he was looking at £280k properties now (larger, more modern suburban rather than in the city). His acceptable standard is going up as well as prices now that he's in his thirties. Those £280k properties are now around £300k.
And just for context, we are talking about his first home. Our family home is a 4 bed detached costing less than £400k (bought post pandemic and in Yorkshire)
Yeah but when you’re young and naive and think the country is run by competent older people you don’t expect double or triple inflation on housing for a decade on end.
Arguably you should have invested that deposit in the S&P500 and today it’s be a bigger deposit for him against his more expensive home.
But you didn’t, because no one expects simple things like home prices to do this, and no one wants to needlessly gamble their money to try ‘win’ just to get a roof over their heads.
I get your point, but you’re wrong.
Hindsight is easy.
In hindsight I’d have been a property millionaire now just by buying early on in the right places. No real special effort needed.
But why didn’t I? Who knew?
Even right now I’m struggling to see how it can keep going and get worse… but no doubt it will do because everyone is utterly f
king nuts and greedy beyond measure… have kids, then fk them over by making them a debt slave in your ponzi “game of life”
Arguably you should have invested that deposit in the S&P500 and today it’s be a bigger deposit for him against his more expensive home.
But you didn’t, because no one expects simple things like home prices to do this, and no one wants to needlessly gamble their money to try ‘win’ just to get a roof over their heads.
I get your point, but you’re wrong.
Hindsight is easy.
In hindsight I’d have been a property millionaire now just by buying early on in the right places. No real special effort needed.
But why didn’t I? Who knew?
Even right now I’m struggling to see how it can keep going and get worse… but no doubt it will do because everyone is utterly f
king nuts and greedy beyond measure… have kids, then fk them over by making them a debt slave in your ponzi “game of life”Unreal said:
Where's the evidence 'many' are gifting their main home to their kids?
I'm not sure if you really need to have hard stats for this!? It is a no brainer for anyone who does not have a mortgage anymore and wants to pass their primary residence to their kids. Unless you are really really charitable (I mean really!).
ooid said:
Unreal said:
Where's the evidence 'many' are gifting their main home to their kids?
I'm not sure if you really need to have hard stats for this!? It is a no brainer for anyone who does not have a mortgage anymore and wants to pass their primary residence to their kids. Unless you are really really charitable (I mean really!).
ooid said:
Unreal said:
Where's the evidence 'many' are gifting their main home to their kids?
I'm not sure if you really need to have hard stats for this!? It is a no brainer for anyone who does not have a mortgage anymore and wants to pass their primary residence to their kids. Unless you are really really charitable (I mean really!).
SunsetZed said:
ooid said:
Unreal said:
Where's the evidence 'many' are gifting their main home to their kids?
I'm not sure if you really need to have hard stats for this!? It is a no brainer for anyone who does not have a mortgage anymore and wants to pass their primary residence to their kids. Unless you are really really charitable (I mean really!).
Millions of people bought homes after the war, now people are inheriting that money and the first place it goes is into the housing market.
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