Reform UK - A symptom of all that is wrong?
Discussion
biggbn said:
PurplePenguin said:
biggbn said:
So, if I'm reading this right...the greens are as popular as Reform, Sinn Fein are more popular and independent mostly pro Palestine candidates are as popular if not more so....on seats won certainly?
As a percentage of votes?biggbn said:
PurplePenguin said:
biggbn said:
So, if I'm reading this right...the greens are as popular as Reform, Sinn Fein are more popular and independent mostly pro Palestine candidates are as popular if not more so....on seats won certainly?
As a percentage of votes?Which ever way you look at it reform have done a number on the Conservatives.
Castrol for a knave said:
Reform has done well, but then again, Bradford City was in the Premiership for two seasons.....
It will be a good reminder for Labour not to take the electorate for granted.
A few musings.It will be a good reminder for Labour not to take the electorate for granted.
They will.
But that may also not matter. They didn't win this election. The Tories lost it.
Labour now need to do something they have failed to do for the last 5yrs. Be clear on their policies.
If they even remotely f
k it up, the door is open for that majority to disappear as a quickly as it appeared.Meanwhile the Tories need to think about what they want to be. The real answer, for the good of the country, should be 2 or 3 separate parties.
There is fun ahead.
Castrol for a knave said:
Reform has done well, but then again, Bradford City was in the Premiership for two seasons.....
It will be a good reminder for Labour not to take the electorate for granted.
I'm not convinced that they have done that well TBH. John Curtice has previously written about the percentage of those susceptible to right wing populism and it's around 15% - the same as at peak UKIP. It will be a good reminder for Labour not to take the electorate for granted.
15% is what Reform got this time, but they've just moved the right wing populist vote from the Tories (mainly) to themselves. There's no evidence that there's an appetite for them beyond this 15% and also no evidence that Reform are capable of moving beyond it.
I suspect that we're seeing 'peak Reform' right now
smn159 said:
Castrol for a knave said:
Reform has done well, but then again, Bradford City was in the Premiership for two seasons.....
It will be a good reminder for Labour not to take the electorate for granted.
I'm not convinced that they have done that well TBH. John Curtice has previously written about the percentage of those susceptible to right wing populism and it's around 15% - the same as at peak UKIP. It will be a good reminder for Labour not to take the electorate for granted.
15% is what Reform got this time, but they've just moved the right wing populist vote from the Tories (mainly) to themselves. There's no evidence that there's an appetite for them beyond this 15% and also no evidence that Reform are capable of moving beyond it.
I suspect that we're seeing 'peak Reform' right now
I find it really sad that the entire country gets held hostage by a few on the far right.
Reform itself will disappear when Farage moves on. Just like all his other political parties/limited liability companies.
I doubt he's going to be much of a thorn in Labours side... Rather continuing to be a sideshow freak for the media but will rarely bother turning up for parliament.
Harry Flashman said:
Those of us that detest right wing populism and its damaging, divisive messaging still have to admit this.
Doesn't change my view of the average Reform voter and most of their candidates (I held the same view of the Conservative right as well), but a large chunk of the country voted for people who got very few seats. And the party with a huge majority doesn't have anything like that majority reflected in actual votes.
The problem with PR (apart from giving extreme ideologies power) is a parliament locked without a clear majority, and thus no mandate for change, but rather endless bickering and worrying about alliances, over policy.
A system needs divising where there is ability to unlock.Doesn't change my view of the average Reform voter and most of their candidates (I held the same view of the Conservative right as well), but a large chunk of the country voted for people who got very few seats. And the party with a huge majority doesn't have anything like that majority reflected in actual votes.
The problem with PR (apart from giving extreme ideologies power) is a parliament locked without a clear majority, and thus no mandate for change, but rather endless bickering and worrying about alliances, over policy.
We have two houses available to us, so perhaps that could be used as an unlocking mechanism. Perhaps have one house populated via local representation and the other national PR.
There are myriad ways changes could look to curb edge cases. And, just maybe, change in some areas shouldn't happen until a proper consensus is achieved.
Any electoral reform change needs to look at the whole system, not just one aspect. The vote referendum in 2011 was deliberately pitched so as preserve the status quo. The choice was too restrictive and not thought through to encourage change at all.
Maybe we also need to start adding a "don't like any of the options, go away and come back with others" to every voting slip we ever issue.
captain_cynic said:
This.
I find it really sad that the entire country gets held hostage by a few on the far right.
Reform itself will disappear when Farage moves on. Just like all his other political parties/limited liability companies.
I doubt he's going to be much of a thorn in Labours side... Rather continuing to be a sideshow freak for the media but will rarely bother turning up for parliament.
I think he has a long term plan to merge with the Conservatives and become leader. I don't care that he's denied this, he will suddenly 'change his mind' when the time comes.I find it really sad that the entire country gets held hostage by a few on the far right.
Reform itself will disappear when Farage moves on. Just like all his other political parties/limited liability companies.
I doubt he's going to be much of a thorn in Labours side... Rather continuing to be a sideshow freak for the media but will rarely bother turning up for parliament.
The problem with the "Tories move towards Reform, votes combine, election won" thesis is two-fold.
- Tight elections in which the main parties are polarised on policy terms tend to result in more disciplined, two-party electoral behaviour. See 2017 and 2019, (the two main party shared 75%-80%) versus yesterday, 57%.
- Moving towards the fringe tends to produce, at best, a 1-in-1-out revolving door; there is always more demographic weight on a party's "centre flank", so more people to bleed to the LDs/Lab than there are Reform types to pick up on the fringe flank. Hence there is a lot of risk in going radical.
It's hard to know how the Tories are to deal with Reform simply because their aren't enough RoC votes to produce a win unless the Tories can both have the whole of the RoC vote to themselves *and* remain at least passably centrist at the same time, a luxury they normally have, but won't have again until they find a way to shoot Farage's fox.
- Tight elections in which the main parties are polarised on policy terms tend to result in more disciplined, two-party electoral behaviour. See 2017 and 2019, (the two main party shared 75%-80%) versus yesterday, 57%.
- Moving towards the fringe tends to produce, at best, a 1-in-1-out revolving door; there is always more demographic weight on a party's "centre flank", so more people to bleed to the LDs/Lab than there are Reform types to pick up on the fringe flank. Hence there is a lot of risk in going radical.
It's hard to know how the Tories are to deal with Reform simply because their aren't enough RoC votes to produce a win unless the Tories can both have the whole of the RoC vote to themselves *and* remain at least passably centrist at the same time, a luxury they normally have, but won't have again until they find a way to shoot Farage's fox.
Murph7355 said:
Castrol for a knave said:
Reform has done well, but then again, Bradford City was in the Premiership for two seasons.....
It will be a good reminder for Labour not to take the electorate for granted.
A few musings.It will be a good reminder for Labour not to take the electorate for granted.
They will.
But that may also not matter. They didn't win this election. The Tories lost it.
Labour now need to do something they have failed to do for the last 5yrs. Be clear on their policies.
If they even remotely f
k it up, the door is open for that majority to disappear as a quickly as it appeared.Meanwhile the Tories need to think about what they want to be. The real answer, for the good of the country, should be 2 or 3 separate parties.
There is fun ahead.
Will they learn? In the case of the Tories, I just think they are generally too remote from the majority of ordinary voters to get this or any of the many other issues people are concerned about. We will now get to see how Labour manage.
I truly hope they do better.
turbobloke said:
frisbee said:
Reform will most likely collapse.
A couple of MPs will defect to the Tories, another will go via a byelection for something grottier than tractor porn and Farage will get bored and lose interest.
It's good to type up quickly after a dream before it's forgotten A couple of MPs will defect to the Tories, another will go via a byelection for something grottier than tractor porn and Farage will get bored and lose interest.
frisbee said:
Reform will most likely collapse.
A couple of MPs will defect to the Tories, another will go via a byelection for something grottier than tractor porn and Farage will get bored and lose interest.
I think the opposite. This election was all about gaining traction which they got. Farage himself is now an MP so will sit right where he needs too. Immigration is only going to get worse with Labour and Farage will continue to make them look stupid. Despite the result I think it will be interesting to see the actual voting figures. I want to know how many people voted for X,Y and Z and how many couldn't be bothered.A couple of MPs will defect to the Tories, another will go via a byelection for something grottier than tractor porn and Farage will get bored and lose interest.
If , as predicted Labour increase taxes and generally make a huge hash of it all, Reform will be there again to pick up the disgruntled voter. I`m no political animal, just a view from a layman who detests politicians that cannot lie straight in bed !
turbobloke said:
frisbee said:
Reform will most likely collapse.
A couple of MPs will defect to the Tories, another will go via a byelection for something grottier than tractor porn and Farage will get bored and lose interest.
It's good to type up quickly after a dream before it's forgotten A couple of MPs will defect to the Tories, another will go via a byelection for something grottier than tractor porn and Farage will get bored and lose interest.
If you ever heard ex-miners talking about Thatcher and the Conservative party, you will know quite how deep and long running that resentment was. Granted, within the last few years, you would find some of them have voted Tory.
However, the betrayal over the last 10-14 years has been of the rank and file ordinary, non-uber wealthy. The bottom 95%ers. I don;t think many of them will forget.
frisbee said:
turbobloke said:
frisbee said:
Reform will most likely collapse.
A couple of MPs will defect to the Tories, another will go via a byelection for something grottier than tractor porn and Farage will get bored and lose interest.
It's good to type up quickly after a dream before it's forgotten A couple of MPs will defect to the Tories, another will go via a byelection for something grottier than tractor porn and Farage will get bored and lose interest.
Digga said:
turbobloke said:
frisbee said:
Reform will most likely collapse.
A couple of MPs will defect to the Tories, another will go via a byelection for something grottier than tractor porn and Farage will get bored and lose interest.
It's good to type up quickly after a dream before it's forgotten A couple of MPs will defect to the Tories, another will go via a byelection for something grottier than tractor porn and Farage will get bored and lose interest.
If you ever heard ex-miners talking about Thatcher and the Conservative party, you will know quite how deep and long running that resentment was. Granted, within the last few years, you would find some of them have voted Tory.
However, the betrayal over the last 10-14 years has been of the rank and file ordinary, non-uber wealthy. The bottom 95%ers. I don;t think many of them will forget.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2024/07/how-britain-...
On frisbee's comment, this is Independent - are we
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nig...
Harry Flashman said:
Those of us that detest right wing populism and its damaging, divisive messaging still have to admit this.
Doesn't change my view of the average Reform voter and most of their candidates (I held the same view of the Conservative right as well), but a large chunk of the country voted for people who got very few seats. And the party with a huge majority doesn't have anything like that majority reflected in actual votes.
The problem with PR (apart from giving extreme ideologies power) is a parliament locked without a clear majority, and thus no mandate for change, but rather endless bickering and worrying about alliances, over policy.
After the 8 years of chaos and pantomime that we have witnessed and all the damage done and 5 Prime Ministers coming and going, I for one am glad that's over and we can get back to a sensible government.Doesn't change my view of the average Reform voter and most of their candidates (I held the same view of the Conservative right as well), but a large chunk of the country voted for people who got very few seats. And the party with a huge majority doesn't have anything like that majority reflected in actual votes.
The problem with PR (apart from giving extreme ideologies power) is a parliament locked without a clear majority, and thus no mandate for change, but rather endless bickering and worrying about alliances, over policy.
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