Reform UK

[Wills2]

turbobloke said:

Wills2 said:

InformationSuperHighway said:

Someone enlighten me. Assuming they get a few dozen seats.. Labor still end up with a 'super majority' or whatever that means.

Does that mean Reform actually have any influence and power over a bit of shouty shouty in PMQs?

Surely Labor by themselves or with the support of Lib Dems could get pretty much any policy through without needing to bend to Reform? Or indeed any of Reforms policies coming close to being considered?

Zero influence...<snip>

Just like Farage and UKIP had zero influence with no directly elected MPs in HoC.

How you feel about a Labour super majority and the Lib Dems in opposition?

.

[eharding]

valiant said:

S600BSB said:

LDs as predicted official opposition! Incredible poll.

As much as I’d like to see it happen, I don’t think it will happen.

I think the Tories will do better than the polls suggest as it’s one thing to say to a pollster and another thing when you’re actually in the polling booth especially if your local Tory MP is decent (yes! There are some).

Still, would be epic on here should Ed lead the opposition.

Either way, Labour aren't going to give a flying Farage in a rolling doughnut about what Reform say or do, in or out of Parliament. The shrivelled husk of what remains of the Conservatives might give Reform some heed, but to what end? It may well be 15 or 20 years before we see another right-of-centre government in the UK.

[Vasco]

valiant said:

As much as I’d like to see it happen, I don’t think it will happen.

I think the Tories will do better than the polls suggest as it’s one thing to say to a pollster and another thing when you’re actually in the polling booth especially if your local Tory MP is decent (yes! There are some).

Still, would be epic on here should Ed lead the opposition.

I thought Ed was only any good at playing the fool when TV cameras were about. I struggle to see him doing anything worthwhile.

[Vanden Saab]

Wills2 said:

turbobloke said:

Wills2 said:

InformationSuperHighway said:

Someone enlighten me. Assuming they get a few dozen seats.. Labor still end up with a 'super majority' or whatever that means.

Does that mean Reform actually have any influence and power over a bit of shouty shouty in PMQs?

Surely Labor by themselves or with the support of Lib Dems could get pretty much any policy through without needing to bend to Reform? Or indeed any of Reforms policies coming close to being considered?

Zero influence...<snip>

Just like Farage and UKIP had zero influence with no directly elected MPs in HoC.

How you feel about a Labour super majority and the Lib Dems in opposition?

.

No problem at all as I am in favour of democracy, how would you feel if Reform were the opposition?

[Mortarboard]

Wills2 said:

Zero influence and with a majority of 250 Labour won't need anyone's support as they are 250 seats ahead of all the other parties combined.

Based upon that the Lib Dems would be His Majesties Opposition which I'm sure Ed would love, Labour with a super majority and the Lib Dems as the opposition, wow has that ever happened before?

This.
They would get a lot of attention, and based on what they've got so far in terms of scrutiny, it might not go well for them.
If they sail those seas successfully, they'll need to get going on candidates in locals in order to have something to run on next time. Doing fk all might work the first time, but unlikely to work a second.

But during this cycle, it'll be labour unapposedfor whatever they want to do, while they have a majority of 250+.
Means labour can ignore their own headbangers as well as those of the "opposition"

M.

[Vanden Saab]

eharding said:

valiant said:

S600BSB said:

LDs as predicted official opposition! Incredible poll.

As much as I’d like to see it happen, I don’t think it will happen.

I think the Tories will do better than the polls suggest as it’s one thing to say to a pollster and another thing when you’re actually in the polling booth especially if your local Tory MP is decent (yes! There are some).

Still, would be epic on here should Ed lead the opposition.

Either way, Labour aren't going to give a flying Farage in a rolling doughnut about what Reform say or do, in or out of Parliament. The shrivelled husk of what remains of the Conservatives might give Reform some heed, but to what end? It may well be 15 or 20 years before we see another right-of-centre government in the UK.

They said that in 2019 about the chances of a Labour Gov and here we are

Edited by Vanden Saab on Wednesday 26th June 19:56

[Mortarboard]

turbobloke said:

Just like Farage and UKIP had zero influence with no directly elected MPs in HoC.

How many MPs does ukip have today?
How many do you think they'll have on the 5th?



M.

[Carl_VivaEspana]

bhstewie said:

Yes but this is just the start.

Wake up sheeple.

My mother’s postman has declared his vote for reform.

Election glory is only days away for our Nige.

[sunbeam alpine]

Vanden Saab said:

Mortarboard said:

Depends what their numbers end up at (seats, not %age of vote)

1-5 seats, and there's nothing there to get momentum going with. More likely to have defection to another party. Dead by next election.

5-15 seats, they have a chance. However, the more seats they have, the more scrutiny they get. If they can weather that scrutiny, they have a chance of having some influence on the commentary. A chance in locals the next time, and the next GE.

M.

Up to a possible 15 now, baby steps

bhstewie said:

Yes but this is just the start.

Wake up sheeple.

This is what concerns me most. I see the same complacency I observed in the run-up to the Brexit referendum.

On a personal level I've done everything I can to insulate myself from the effects of Brexit. Should Reform ever get their hands on power - and the UK adopt an even more combative attitude toward the EU - it will be interesting to see what happens.

[eharding]

Vanden Saab said:

eharding said:

valiant said:

S600BSB said:

LDs as predicted official opposition! Incredible poll.

As much as I’d like to see it happen, I don’t think it will happen.

I think the Tories will do better than the polls suggest as it’s one thing to say to a pollster and another thing when you’re actually in the polling booth especially if your local Tory MP is decent (yes! There are some).

Still, would be epic on here should Ed lead the opposition.

Either way, Labour aren't going to give a flying Farage in a rolling doughnut about what Reform say or do, in or out of Parliament. The shrivelled husk of what remains of the Conservatives might give Reform some heed, but to what end? It may well be 15 or 20 years before we see another right-of-centre government in the UK.

They said that in 2019 about the chances of a Labour Gov and here we are

Edited by Vanden Saab on Wednesday 26th June 19:56

They did indeed, but those of us paying attention at the time realised that Boris was perfectly capable of pissing his majority up the wall - then having Truss and a lesser degree Sunak adding cherries on top of a massive turd trifle, and as you say, here we are.

I don't particularly warm to Starmer, but unless he starts a massive hallucinogenic drug habit I can't see him screwing things up in the same way.

[Vanden Saab]

eharding said:

They did indeed, but those of us paying attention at the time realised that Boris was perfectly capable of pissing his majority up the wall - then having Truss and a lesser degree Sunak adding cherries on top of a massive turd trifle, and as you say, here we are.

I don't particularly warm to Starmer, but unless he starts a massive hallucinogenic drug habit I can't see him screwing things up in the same way.

I wish I had your confidence in him. I agree he will not screw up in the same way though.

Edited by Vanden Saab on Wednesday 26th June 20:16

[mike9009]

turbobloke said:

Wills2 said:

InformationSuperHighway said:

Someone enlighten me. Assuming they get a few dozen seats.. Labor still end up with a 'super majority' or whatever that means.

Does that mean Reform actually have any influence and power over a bit of shouty shouty in PMQs?

Surely Labor by themselves or with the support of Lib Dems could get pretty much any policy through without needing to bend to Reform? Or indeed any of Reforms policies coming close to being considered?

Zero influence...<snip>

Just like Farage and UKIP had zero influence with no directly elected MPs in HoC.

Without the Tories in power, yes zero influence.

[Wills2]

Vanden Saab said:

No problem at all as I am in favour of democracy, how would you feel if Reform were the opposition?

Is this your other PH log in?

[LimmerickLad]

eharding said:

bhstewie said:

Yes but this is just the start.

Wake up sheeple.

Are these the new Quiet Batpeople that Reform are trying to reach - the Sleepy Sheeple People?

[valiant]

Vasco said:

valiant said:

As much as I’d like to see it happen, I don’t think it will happen.

I think the Tories will do better than the polls suggest as it’s one thing to say to a pollster and another thing when you’re actually in the polling booth especially if your local Tory MP is decent (yes! There are some).

Still, would be epic on here should Ed lead the opposition.

I thought Ed was only any good at playing the fool when TV cameras were about. I struggle to see him doing anything worthwhile.

Libdems have certainly pissed someone off in the media because they’ve received far too little attention for a party that’s on track to win 4x or even 5x their last result. Ed has complained that the only way he gets any exposure from the news media is to do these silly stunts otherwise he’d be totally ignored which is wrong especially when so much focus is on Reform who’ll only realistically win 5-10 seats if they are lucky.

If they do the impossible and beat the Tories into second then it will testament to Ed to achieve so much with so little exposure. Just goes to show that locally, they have a pretty effective operation.

[swisstoni]

Do you not think a lot, if not all, this sudden success for the LibDems is down to a mass exodus of erstwhile Tory voters who just can’t vote for the current crew?

[Mortarboard]

swisstoni said:

Do you not think a lot, if not all, this sudden success for the LibDems is down to a mass exodus of erstwhile Tory voters who just can’t vote for the current crew?

It's Reform splitting the vote.
In most areas, labour gains, in others it's the libDems.

Election calculus actually has the libdems vote going down slightly. (11.8% down to 11.1%)

M.

[valiant]

swisstoni said:

Do you not think a lot, if not all, this sudden success for the LibDems is down to a mass exodus of erstwhile Tory voters who just can’t vote for the current crew?

Partly and partly because of tactical voting where Labour voters are lending their vote to ensure the Tories lose.

The success isn’t sudden. They’ve polled pretty consistently throughout the campaign but their power base is very localised meaning they’ll pick up a lot more seats whereas Reform are spread thinly throughout the country and has no (well maybe one or two) areas that are nailed on to win.

Libdems were always destined to return to their natural number of seats of around 50. They may pick up 20-30 more seats through tactical voting and whatnot but it’s the annihilation of the Tories that may see them in opposition rather than winning hundreds of seats.

[Digga]

Mortarboard said:

swisstoni said:

Do you not think a lot, if not all, this sudden success for the LibDems is down to a mass exodus of erstwhile Tory voters who just can’t vote for the current crew?

It's Reform splitting the vote.
In most areas, labour gains, in others it's the libDems.

Election calculus actually has the libdems vote going down slightly. (11.8% down to 11.1%)

M.

I think, in terms of former Tory voters, there are many who would not vote Labour.

Reform, perhaps, assuming there is a candidate, but a lot of what we see of Reform might not appeal.

Lib Dems will, IMHO, pick up a lot of those votes, in a lot of constituencies.

[ChocolateFrog]

Reform were doing the rounds locally with a car towing one of those billboard trailers and a loudspeaker.

Farage's grid plastered everywhere.

I was pleased to hear his tacit support for Putin went down like a bowl of cold sick to most people in the polls.

Edited by ChocolateFrog on Wednesday 26th June 21:29