Reform UK

[Elysium]

Mr Penguin said:

Vanden Saab said:

The latest electoral calculus poll is out. The haters are going to be livid.


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai...

The high seats prediction would induce spontaneous combustion in some on here i should imagine.

I'm happy to see proper intervals on the estimates but could they be any wider? Not very illuminating.

Interesting that the Lib Dem’s could become her majesties opposition.

[Vanden Saab]

Elysium said:

Mr Penguin said:

Vanden Saab said:

The latest electoral calculus poll is out. The haters are going to be livid.


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai...

The high seats prediction would induce spontaneous combustion in some on here i should imagine.

I'm happy to see proper intervals on the estimates but could they be any wider? Not very illuminating.

Interesting that the Lib Dem’s could become her majesties opposition.

You can take the gender issue too far you know..

[turbobloke]

Elysium said:

smn159 said:

Vasco said:

smn159 said:

So the £17bn that Reform are promising to spend on the NHS by not not doing Net Zero doesn't actually exist as there there has been no provision made in budgets for Net Zero, so the £17bn would have to come from tax raises.

Typical Reform modus operandi then - say something which on the face of it sounds plausible to those who don't want to / aren't able to dig any further but are complete bullst when anyone looks at the detail.

Plenty appear to be falling for it though

I probably agree with you but need a bit of convincing that the other parties are much different.
.

Reform are making very specific promises, knowing full well that the money for them doesn't exist. If you have examples of the others doing the same I'm all ears.

Isn't Nigel supposed to 'tell it like it is?"

Isn’t this a completely circular argument as both main parties are saying they are going to do net zero and spend that money.

Are they not all promising money that doesn’t exist?

Hence the warning over Labour's GB Energy plans and the massive borrowing needed, which still won't be enough.

As the Climate Change Commttee (infrastructure type costs) and Oxford Uni profs (storage costs) have already pointed out, if a UK gov't wants Net Zero by 2050 then it's going to cost more than one HS2 completion bill per year, every year, to 2050. If that astronomical sum per year isn't spent soon then the cost per remaining years will increase accordingly. Without that, it's Not Zero. Anyone looking / hoping for a Dallas type deus ex machina solution popping up including in terms of storage is probably thinking about cavemen/women and green hydrogen.

Politicians in the main Parties are ignoring reality.

CCC Infrastructure etc
https://forums-images.pistonheads.com/18454/202406...

Oxford Profs storage
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/on-the-stora...

£trillions unachievable
https://forums-images.pistonheads.com/18454/202406...

A hydrogen plan is scrapped
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/production/sse-scr...

Whatever else they are, Reform are alone in offering a choice over Net Zero. They have net zero chance of being elected, so we have no choice either.

[smn159]

Mortarboard said:

smn159 said:

Reform are making very specific promises, knowing full well that the money for them doesn't exist. If you have examples of the others doing the same I'm all ears.

Isn't Nigel supposed to 'tell it like it is?"

Reform aren't going have more than a handful (at most) of MPs. Their promises, contracts, manifestos aren't ever going to come under scrutiny. They're aren't event going to get into "official" opposition.

M.

Given their impact on the Conservative vote and the likely result of a Labour landslide, it's hard to argue that they are an irrelevance for this election and deserve the same scrutiny as everyone else, despite the apparent need on here to give them a free pass to spout bks unchallenged. "Because they're all the same"

If that's true, why vote for them at all?

[Vasco]

smn159 said:

Given their impact on the Conservative vote and the likely result of a Labour landslide, it's hard to argue that they are an irrelevance for this election and deserve the same scrutiny as everyone else, despite the apparent need on here to give them a free pass to spout bks unchallenged. "Because they're all the same"

If that's true, why vote for them at all?

It's the same argument as 'Why bother voting at all - for any party' ?. None of them are at all convincing as having worthwhile policies that we are confident will work.

[Mortarboard]

smn159 said:

Mortarboard said:

smn159 said:

Reform are making very specific promises, knowing full well that the money for them doesn't exist. If you have examples of the others doing the same I'm all ears.

Isn't Nigel supposed to 'tell it like it is?"

Reform aren't going have more than a handful (at most) of MPs. Their promises, contracts, manifestos aren't ever going to come under scrutiny. They're aren't event going to get into "official" opposition.

M.

Given their impact on the Conservative vote and the likely result of a Labour landslide, it's hard to argue that they are an irrelevance for this election and deserve the same scrutiny as everyone else, despite the apparent need on here to give them a free pass to spout bks unchallenged. "Because they're all the same"

If that's true, why vote for them at all?

Depends what their numbers end up at (seats, not %age of vote)

1-5 seats, and there's nothing there to get momentum going with. More likely to have defection to another party. Dead by next election.

5-15 seats, they have a chance. However, the more seats they have, the more scrutiny they get. If they can weather that scrutiny, they have a chance of having some influence on the commentary. A chance in locals the next time, and the next GE.

M.

[turbobloke]

Quickieleaky.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/26/la...

[wc98]

captain_cynic said:

Odd... That's exactly how most would describe the actions of Turbobloke.

Along with delusional.

Sadly he's got a cadre of defenders who'll excuse anything.

I reckon i am a fair way away from TB on the political spectrum but i certainly wouldn't describe his actions like that. Regarding the "most", i would be surprised if that was the case.

[valiant]

bhstewie said:

Another failure by the vetting company obviously.

Yeah but it’s just a protest vote so it doesn’t matter…

Has Farage condemned it yet?

[Vanden Saab]

Mortarboard said:

Depends what their numbers end up at (seats, not %age of vote)

1-5 seats, and there's nothing there to get momentum going with. More likely to have defection to another party. Dead by next election.

5-15 seats, they have a chance. However, the more seats they have, the more scrutiny they get. If they can weather that scrutiny, they have a chance of having some influence on the commentary. A chance in locals the next time, and the next GE.

M.

Up to a possible 15 now, baby steps

[Vanden Saab]

valiant said:

bhstewie said:

Another failure by the vetting company obviously.

Yeah but it’s just a protest vote so it doesn’t matter…

Has Farage condemned it yet?

The voters in his constituency will decide, same as it has been since the candidates were settled.

[bitchstewie]

valiant said:

Yeah but it’s just a protest vote so it doesn’t matter…

Has Farage condemned it yet?

The Reform UK Candidate said:

I hope I’m near one of these scumbags one day I won’t run away I’ll slaughter them then have their family taken out.

Reform have almost normalised this to the point that people just shrug and go "another one".

[InformationSuperHighway]

Vanden Saab said:

The latest electoral calculus poll is out. The haters are going to be livid.


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai...

The high seats prediction would induce spontaneous combustion in some on here i should imagine.

Someone enlighten me. Assuming they get a few dozen seats.. Labor still end up with a 'super majority' or whatever that means.

Does that mean Reform actually have any influence and power over a bit of shouty shouty in PMQs?

Surely Labor by themselves or with the support of Lib Dems could get pretty much any policy through without needing to bend to Reform? Or indeed any of Reforms policies coming close to being considered?

[bitchstewie]

Yes but this is just the start.

Wake up sheeple.

[PurplePenguin]

InformationSuperHighway said:

Vanden Saab said:

The latest electoral calculus poll is out. The haters are going to be livid.


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai...

The high seats prediction would induce spontaneous combustion in some on here i should imagine.

Someone enlighten me. Assuming they get a few dozen seats.. Labor still end up with a 'super majority' or whatever that means.

Does that mean Reform actually have any influence and power over a bit of shouty shouty in PMQs?

Surely Labor by themselves or with the support of Lib Dems could get pretty much any policy through without needing to bend to Reform? Or indeed any of Reforms policies coming close to being considered?

The main point of Reform getting a noticeable percentage of the votes is to show the conservatives (mainly) the stupidity of belittling the genuine concerns of a significant proportion of the population.

[eharding]

bhstewie said:

Yes but this is just the start.

Wake up sheeple.

Are these the new Quiet Batpeople that Reform are trying to reach - the Sleepy Sheeple People?

[Wills2]

InformationSuperHighway said:

Someone enlighten me. Assuming they get a few dozen seats.. Labor still end up with a 'super majority' or whatever that means.

Does that mean Reform actually have any influence and power over a bit of shouty shouty in PMQs?

Surely Labor by themselves or with the support of Lib Dems could get pretty much any policy through without needing to bend to Reform? Or indeed any of Reforms policies coming close to being considered?

Zero influence and with a majority of 250 Labour won't need anyone's support as they are 250 seats ahead of all the other parties combined.

Based upon that the Lib Dems would be His Majesties Opposition which I'm sure Ed would love, Labour with a super majority and the Lib Dems as the opposition, wow has that ever happened before?

[S600BSB]

PurplePenguin said:

InformationSuperHighway said:

Vanden Saab said:

The latest electoral calculus poll is out. The haters are going to be livid.


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai...

The high seats prediction would induce spontaneous combustion in some on here i should imagine.

Someone enlighten me. Assuming they get a few dozen seats.. Labor still end up with a 'super majority' or whatever that means.

Does that mean Reform actually have any influence and power over a bit of shouty shouty in PMQs?

Surely Labor by themselves or with the support of Lib Dems could get pretty much any policy through without needing to bend to Reform? Or indeed any of Reforms policies coming close to being considered?

The main point of Reform getting a noticeable percentage of the votes is to show the conservatives (mainly) the stupidity of belittling the genuine concerns of a significant proportion of the population.

LDs as predicted official opposition! Incredible poll.

[turbobloke]

Wills2 said:

InformationSuperHighway said:

Someone enlighten me. Assuming they get a few dozen seats.. Labor still end up with a 'super majority' or whatever that means.

Does that mean Reform actually have any influence and power over a bit of shouty shouty in PMQs?

Surely Labor by themselves or with the support of Lib Dems could get pretty much any policy through without needing to bend to Reform? Or indeed any of Reforms policies coming close to being considered?

Zero influence...<snip>

Just like Farage and UKIP had zero influence with no directly elected MPs in HoC.

[valiant]

S600BSB said:

LDs as predicted official opposition! Incredible poll.

As much as I’d like to see it happen, I don’t think it will happen.

I think the Tories will do better than the polls suggest as it’s one thing to say to a pollster and another thing when you’re actually in the polling booth especially if your local Tory MP is decent (yes! There are some).

Still, would be epic on here should Ed lead the opposition.