General Election July 2024

[borcy]

732NM said:

I predict independents will have a much higher vote share than usual.

I believe the two main parties are on course for the lowest % of the vote post ww2.

[Solocle]

borcy said:

I believe the two main parties are on course for the lowest % of the vote post ww2.

Yeah, but that's only really because the Tories have absolute st the bed.

[borcy]

Solocle said:

borcy said:

I believe the two main parties are on course for the lowest % of the vote post ww2.

Yeah, but that's only really because the Tories have absolute st the bed.

There's always a reason

I wonder if it's a blip or a longer term trend.

[Boringvolvodriver]

Solocle said:

Yeah, but that's only really because the Tories have absolute st the bed.

And there is also less confidence in what Labour are offering. Very much seen as two cheeks of the same backside by many.

[Mr Penguin]

borcy said:

Behind a paywall.

The gist is that due to postal votes not being sent, Labour can legally challenge Badenoch winning her seat and force a by-election. This means Badenoch wouldn't be a candidate for party leader if it starts very soon because she will not officially be an MP.
The same applies in a few other seats where they have postal vote issues.

Article said:

Any candidate can challenge the result in their constituency if they can prove there has been “substantial non-compliance” in how the election took place. They must submit their appeal within 21 working days and pay up to £5,745 to launch the case.

While the courts were considering an appeal, the candidate elected on the day would continue working as the local MP. However, if the go-ahead for a by-election were given, they would then become a candidate again.

Under Tory leadership election rules, only sitting MPs can stand.

[BigMon]

Timothy Bucktu said:

BigMon said:

philv said:

2 days until the uk votes in a far left socialist government with such a majority they can transform this country in a way not seen for a generation.
For good or bad.
Because people are pissed off with the tories.


Absolute nuts.

Every protest vote is a vote for socialism.

Take off your blue tints and apply a smidgen of rational thought rather than hysterical shrieking. You sound like an Express columnist.

And you sound like a rude little 12 year old.

There's no point giving a reasoned response to an unhinged rant.

Sorry if it offended your sensibilities.

[blueg33]

DSLiverpool said:

Sunak should have announced the election and stood down, virtually anyone but him would have had a better chance. Granted it’s still a whitewash but without Sunak it’d be less of one.

I don’t agree.

We would end up with a toxic nutcase like Braverman

To get my vote back they need to remove the nutters, the ERG etc

[FiF]

borcy said:

732NM said:

I predict independents will have a much higher vote share than usual.

I believe the two main parties are on course for the lowest % of the vote post ww2.

One thing is for sure, this election is likely to break some records. Here are a few for consideration and a bit of badly needed amusement wondering which ones will be broken.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-pa...

[paulrockliffe]

Mr Penguin said:

borcy said:

Behind a paywall.

The gist is that due to postal votes not being sent, Labour can legally challenge Badenoch winning her seat and force a by-election. This means Badenoch wouldn't be a candidate for party leader if it starts very soon because she will not officially be an MP.
The same applies in a few other seats where they have postal vote issues.

Article said:

Any candidate can challenge the result in their constituency if they can prove there has been “substantial non-compliance” in how the election took place. They must submit their appeal within 21 working days and pay up to £5,745 to launch the case.

While the courts were considering an appeal, the candidate elected on the day would continue working as the local MP. However, if the go-ahead for a by-election were given, they would then become a candidate again.

Under Tory leadership election rules, only sitting MPs can stand.

It's a bit of a silly article though isn't it, because obviously the party could change the rules to accommodate these circumstances and there is also no rush to elect a new leader in the slightest, even if Rishi is keen to get to California sooner rather than later.

[Mr Penguin]

Replacing Sunak wouldn't help because there would be a big distracting fight over who takes over and having another replacement will be another hit to their credibility and whoever did take over wouldn't have enough time to get settled in and overcome that hit.

[isaldiri]

blueg33 said:

DSLiverpool said:

Sunak should have announced the election and stood down, virtually anyone but him would have had a better chance. Granted it’s still a whitewash but without Sunak it’d be less of one.

I don’t agree.

We would end up with a toxic nutcase like Braverman

To get my vote back they need to remove the nutters, the ERG etc

But you wouldn’t vote for Sunak anyway so it changes nothing. His point was that badenoch or someone else might make some wavering whether to vote tory more likely to do so than sunak, not whether someone who was determined not to vote tory might change their minds.

[Rivenink]

blueg33 said:

DSLiverpool said:

Sunak should have announced the election and stood down, virtually anyone but him would have had a better chance. Granted it’s still a whitewash but without Sunak it’d be less of one.

I don’t agree.

We would end up with a toxic nutcase like Braverman

To get my vote back they need to remove the nutters, the ERG etc

The problem for the the Tories is that the polarisation thats been slowly delivered over the last 10-15 years has completely split the "broad church" of the Tory Party.

The complexity of which can't be any more typified than by the folks who're saying they're supporting Reform at this election because the Tories are not "centre right", as they see it.

The Tories have lost their identity.

[carlo996]

bhstewie said:

philv said:

2 days until the uk votes in a far left socialist government with such a majority they can transform this country in a way not seen for a generation.
For good or bad.
Because people are pissed off with the tories.


Absolute nuts.

Every protest vote is a vote for socialism.

This is actually funny

Are you genuinely as scared as you sound?

This is gold Britannias sewn in your belt and a go bag in the boot ready for when the commies come for you stuff.

How do you get this committed to a political party or ideology?

The definition of irony there. Of all the posters in the thread, you're one of the most obsessed needing your point to be everyone's point. People can hold a different opinion a not be 'scared', it's a pathetic and childish little comment that only serves to let others know you don't have the ability to debate anything at all. And lets not forget...this is all from someone who actually put an X next to Farage in the not too distant past

[JagLover]

Rivenink said:

The problem for the the Tories is that the polarisation thats been slowly delivered over the last 10-15 years has completely split the "broad church" of the Tory Party.
.

The oft made statement is that they are a "broad church" without a common religion.

[blueg33]

isaldiri said:

blueg33 said:

DSLiverpool said:

Sunak should have announced the election and stood down, virtually anyone but him would have had a better chance. Granted it’s still a whitewash but without Sunak it’d be less of one.

I don’t agree.

We would end up with a toxic nutcase like Braverman

To get my vote back they need to remove the nutters, the ERG etc

But you wouldn’t vote for Sunak anyway so it changes nothing. His point was that badenoch or someone else might make some wavering whether to vote tory more likely to do so than sunak, not whether someone who was determined not to vote tory might change their minds.

I wouldn’t vote conservative with their current collection of candidates most of whom have been part of the last 10 or more years of absolute chaos and vitriol. I don’t think Sunak is the problem, he is part of the problem.

You can flip a turd over but it is still a turd.

[isaldiri]

blueg33 said:

I wouldn’t vote conservative with their current collection of candidates most of whom have been part of the last 10 or more years of absolute chaos and vitriol. I don’t think Sunak is the problem, he is part of the problem.

You can flip a turd over but it is still a turd.

My point was that you aren’t the target vote that DSLiverpool mentioned in terms of getting a ‘better’ result in this election as you have clearly been long determined not to vote for them anyway.

[carlo996]

blueg33 said:

I wouldn’t vote conservative with their current collection of candidates most of whom have been part of the last 10 or more years of absolute chaos and vitriol. I don’t think Sunak is the problem, he is part of the problem.

You can flip a turd over but it is still a turd.

The same can be said of Labour. Sure Starmer has been sprayed with Mr Sheen, but the lefty loonies remain right under the thin veneer.

[SpidersWeb]

scenario8 said:

It’s hard to know where to begin with these fortunes, really. I suppose the incumbent is being blamed with the never ending economic malaise since the GFC, the inevitable horseplop that would follow the global covid response and for having just hung around too long - and generally for being st and mismanaging public opinion so badly that they’re widely regarded as being so st. All so recently after winning the previous GE with a mandate to simply get on with delivering Brexit - for good or bad. Remarkable really.

Well really the fortunes for today's Conservative Party started back in 2015 when Cameron put the EU referendum in the manifesto to satisfy the Eurosceptics but thinking he would end up in coalition again and the LibDems would veto it.

Then throughout 2016 after Cameron had accidentally won the election and had to have the referendum, the Conservative MPs argued with each other about Leave / Remain, before Cameron lost the vote he thought was certain and then flounced off leaving the party to be lead by a default choice of one, May - and what an inspiring Prime Minister she was...

And that lead to three years of parliament doing sweet FA, interspersed with May foolishly calling an election, losing the majority she had, and ending up being the DUP's bh.

Finally the Conservatives get fed up with that and decide their salvation would be Johnson, that same Johnson who campaigned for Leave but when the chance came to stand for leadership in 2016 bottled it.

As for the public wanting to 'get Brexit done' the public just wanted the damn thing out of the way and the vast vast majority frankly didn't give a damn how that was done.

Then of course remember that Sunak was not brought in as Johnson's chancellor because he was the right person for the job, having previously been a lowly junior housing minister, it was just that the existing chancellor, Javid, had got fed up with Johnson's Svengali, 'eyesight test' Cummings, and his demands to Javid to sack his aides and replace them with Cumming's selection. Sunak got the job not because he was the best person but because he was prepared to be obedient and do as he was told.

And then COVID, with Johnson being 'ambushed by cake' and Putin deciding to fk over the economy of the west.

Then what next, that's right, scandal after scandal after scandal in Johnson's government, before finally the liar and charlatan goes when the Conservative MPs have had enough and he can't find enough to form a cabinet.

So then decision time for the 170k elderly members of the party with large houses in Surrey to choose between 'hold my beer' Truss who was promising them the moon on a stick of tax cuts and an eyewateringly large energy support package or Sunak who was telling them the reality of the st state that the UK economy was in after COVID and Putin (any mention of the impact of Brexit of course being verboten).

Well that choice went well for 44 days, with Truss ending up hiding under a desk.

And finally Sunak, who lets not forget was only a junior housing minister before he got his rapid promotion, tries to pick up the pieces, whilst dealing with a party that is now mainly full of right wing nutters after Johnson had expelled most of those to the centre and left during the Brexit shambles.

Is it any wonder that an awful lot of the public have fallen out of love with that lot?

[vaud]

blueg33 said:

To get my vote back they need to remove the nutters, the ERG etc

The idea of Rees-Mogg getting more influential within the party after this election....

[blueg33]

isaldiri said:

blueg33 said:

I wouldn’t vote conservative with their current collection of candidates most of whom have been part of the last 10 or more years of absolute chaos and vitriol. I don’t think Sunak is the problem, he is part of the problem.

You can flip a turd over but it is still a turd.

My point was that you aren’t the target vote that DSLiverpool mentioned in terms of getting a ‘better’ result in this election as you have clearly been long determined not to vote for them anyway.

I would vote for them if they could even get back to the decidedly average party they were under Cameron and May. By not targeting me and people like me in Gloucestershire and putting forward "normal" people, they run a very real risk of losing the safe seat in Tewkesbury, not to Labour but to Lib Dem