General Election July 2024

[emicen]

Zad said:

A question for people who know things... Maybe...

Is it possible for (say) the LibDems and SNP to form a coalition and so, because of number of joint seats, become the opposition? Because I seem to recall that there is legally no such thing as the official opposition.

LibDems aren't generally a threat in Scotland, so wouldn't need a deal not to contest seats there, and I'm sure they would agree to supporting Scottish independence, if it gave them a seat opposite the government in the chamber.

I would hope the LibDems have learned their lesson when it comes to entering Faustian pacts.

The SNP are poisonous, aligning with them to form the official opposition to fight against a super majority would seem very poor judgement.

In a great number of areas north of the border, Labour and the LibDems are going to be gaining seats because people are just as sick of the SNP (possibly more) than the rest of the country seems to be with the Conservatives.

[119]

Gary C said:

pingu393 said:

vaud said:

Gary C said:

Hummm

We have no poll cards yet...

You don't need one.

The only thing the polling card tells you is where you are registered to vote. As long as you know where your polling station is, all you need is valid ID.

Yes, well aware of that

just hope they haven't missed us off the list.

Our cards had a login for us to go online and register even though we were registered.

Not sure what that’s about.

[Hub]

This has felt to me like a fairly short and subdued election campaign - possibly because the result is already known and there isn't that much to say. I haven't had a huge amount of time to engage in it though, so that might be part of it, but it feels like none of the real big issues facing us have been satisfactorily addressed by either side either. The parties all all seem fairly circumspect in most areas

I am disillusioned!

[S600BSB]

Here comes the sun:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/...

[blueg33]

S600BSB said:

Here comes the sun:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/...

Labour has always been good for my industry - housebuilding and real estate investment (aside from PPG3)

[JagLover]

Mr Penguin said:

CraigyMc said:

It's not won until it's announced.

For me the graph is more interesting in terms of the error bars around the libdems and the tories; either could wind up being the opposition.

The error bars show how useless the MRP polls are in this election. This is one of the clearer ones but it still has Conservatives between 34 and 99 and Reform between 1 and 16 and the SNP between 3 and 21. One company had Labour anywhere between scraping a majority through Sinn Fein not taking their seats and winning nearly 500 seats - at that point they may as well not have polls at all. Different companies best estimates are all over the place.

They sort of get away with it because they all predict a comfortable majority but the polling post mortem will be an interesting read.

I think that is a bit unfair to the pollsters. In reality so many seats have become 3 or even 4 way battles that small movements, even of as little as 0.1% of the vote, can affect dozens of seats.

This is not a normal election.

[bitchstewie]

Looks like Sunak and co have put up the white flag.

Johnson out campaigning to try and draw the racists and frothers back from Reform and ministers on TV this morning not making the case for the Conservatives but asking people not to give Labour too big a majority.

Desperate stuff.

[Carl_VivaEspana]

philv said:

2 days until the uk votes in a far left socialist government with such a majority they can transform this country in a way not seen for a generation.
For good or bad.
Because people are pissed off with the tories.


Absolute nuts.

Every protest vote is a vote for socialism.

Brits live in a Socialist Country now, just with all the downsides of capitalism, a welfare state and none of the upsides.

Brits can see when they have been done over.

In a Renton accent (trainspotting for the Heretics that don't know).

Move to an actual socialist country and pay less tax than under the Tories, with a tenth of the crime, an actual high street that you can walk down without a smack head in sight, be able to afford to send your kids to private school, afford private health care because your mortgage is peanuts. Where there's no speed cameras and petrol costs a euro, where it doesn't rain all summer, where the lager is fresh cheap, cold , bronzed and so are the women.

Choose a tan, choose a beer bellly, choose an MX5 with a broken roof mechanism because you never fking use it, choose to be fking Gal Dove.

I didn't choose life, I chose something else - the Tories.

- End of Renton accent -

....(or the SNP if Scottish).

Honestly, it's back your bags time fellas, don't moan about what's coming.

[JagLover]

philv said:

2 days until the uk votes in a far left socialist government with such a majority they can transform this country in a way not seen for a generation.
For good or bad.
Because people are pissed off with the tories.

Absolute nuts.

Every protest vote is a vote for socialism.

Doesn't really matter if the Labour majority is 50 or 250 so that isn't really an argument. Also the Tories have proven they cannot be trusted and are merely there to offer the pretence of a centre-right alternative. Good riddance to them.

[bitchstewie]

philv said:

2 days until the uk votes in a far left socialist government with such a majority they can transform this country in a way not seen for a generation.
For good or bad.
Because people are pissed off with the tories.


Absolute nuts.

Every protest vote is a vote for socialism.

This is actually funny

Are you genuinely as scared as you sound?

This is gold Britannias sewn in your belt and a go bag in the boot ready for when the commies come for you stuff.

How do you get this committed to a political party or ideology?

[biggbn]

philv said:

2 days until the uk votes in a far left socialist government with such a majority they can transform this country in a way not seen for a generation.
For good or bad.
Because people are pissed off with the tories.


Absolute nuts.

Every protest vote is a vote for socialism.

Far left? Say what?

[Mr Penguin]

JagLover said:

I think that is a bit unfair to the pollsters. In reality so many seats have become 3 or even 4 way battles that small movements, even of as little as 0.1% of the vote, can affect dozens of seats.

This is not a normal election.

I've never found a cliff edge when I've looked at previous elections or the MRP polls. I suspect they don't really know which demographic groups actually do tactical voting (which varies from election to election anyway), which groups are likely to protest, and which groups are committed to Reform. Perhaps even assuming that bellweather seats are the same as traditionally safe seats or not really understanding what will happen in safe seats with bad candidates who didn't expect to win.

The conditions are different for every election and it may be that this one has very different conditions but that will be something they look at.

[Mr Penguin]

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/posta...

Would be interesting to see multiple by-elections in the first three months of a new government.

[JagLover]

Mr Penguin said:

The conditions are different for every election and it may be that this one has very different conditions but that will be something they look at.

Yes, it does have very different conditions, one of the main parties in unprecedently low polling numbers.

This means they are only just holding on even in previously "safe" seats and a reduction in the national vote scores from even 24% to 23% then mean the loss of further dozens of seats.

[Timothy Bucktu]

BigMon said:

philv said:

2 days until the uk votes in a far left socialist government with such a majority they can transform this country in a way not seen for a generation.
For good or bad.
Because people are pissed off with the tories.


Absolute nuts.

Every protest vote is a vote for socialism.

Take off your blue tints and apply a smidgen of rational thought rather than hysterical shrieking. You sound like an Express columnist.

And you sound like a rude little 12 year old.

[President Merkin]

Little 12 year olds becoming aware of impending national service probably informs their mood obvs.

[turbobloke]

Lord Ashcroft argues that every vote still counts. For the precise result yes, of course, for the nature of the result not so much as the optimistic Tory vote still gives Labour a 13 point lead pollwise.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2024/07/my-final-cam...

[DSLiverpool]

Sunak should have announced the election and stood down, virtually anyone but him would have had a better chance. Granted it’s still a whitewash but without Sunak it’d be less of one.

[119]

DSLiverpool said:

Sunak should have announced the election and stood down, virtually anyone but him would have had a better chance. Granted it’s still a whitewash but without Sunak it’d be less of one.

[732NM]

I predict independents will have a much higher vote share than usual.