General Election July 2024
Discussion
CraigyMc said:
For me the graph is more interesting in terms of the error bars around the libdems and the tories; either could wind up being the opposition.
ThisI used to have to try to explain these sort of figures to people. 19 times out of 20, the correct answer is somewhere between these two numbers. Can't you be more accurate than that? No. The only thing that I know for certain is that the number in the middle is probably wrong. It is only correct by luck.
CraigyMc said:
It's not won until it's announced.
For me the graph is more interesting in terms of the error bars around the libdems and the tories; either could wind up being the opposition.
The error bars show how useless the MRP polls are in this election. This is one of the clearer ones but it still has Conservatives between 34 and 99 and Reform between 1 and 16 and the SNP between 3 and 21. One company had Labour anywhere between scraping a majority through Sinn Fein not taking their seats and winning nearly 500 seats - at that point they may as well not have polls at all. Different companies best estimates are all over the place.For me the graph is more interesting in terms of the error bars around the libdems and the tories; either could wind up being the opposition.
They sort of get away with it because they all predict a comfortable majority but the polling post mortem will be an interesting read.
It really is astonishing that the Conservative Party is getting itself into a position where it will end up at an anticipated 64 seats, and Labour will surge up to 484. 484?! Just incredible numbers. Where are all these MPs coming from?
It’s hard to know where to begin with these fortunes, really. I suppose the incumbent is being blamed with the never ending economic malaise since the GFC, the inevitable horseplop that would follow the global covid response and for having just hung around too long - and generally for being s
t and mismanaging public opinion so badly that they’re widely regarded as being so st. All so recently after winning the previous GE with a mandate to simply get on with delivering Brexit - for good or bad. Remarkable really.
Remarkable also that Labour are going to benefit so greatly from all this. Having been thought of as having lost that previous election comprehensively and staring oblivion in the face. So we were told. Who does this telling? The hyperbole spoken after that result shown up for being such nonsense. Yet here we are staring at the most monstrous probable Labour majority. At a time where it’s clear there’s so little separating the two parties. Far far less than was the case in my youth and younger years.
SNP representation likely to crumble too. Again, incumbents being blamed for being st and being seen to be st. Once again Labour hoovering up.
I can’t recall an election remotely like it. It knocks 97 out of the park.
Interesting times.
Interesting times ahead, too, as I just can’t see how Labour are going to either particularly improve things - or be seen to have improved things. They’ll have exactly the same structural issues to deal with.
I was reading Politics in 97 at the sort of place where the tutors were almost exclusively left wing, but the students and especially their parents markedly less so. Even there you couldn’t escape the general feeling that the departing Conservative government had become very stale and there was a genuine expectation that things could only get better (TM). I’m just not feeling that now. Perhaps it’s simply an age thing. Maybe younger generations, equipped with a naturally more optimistic outlook are more excited for the future. Good luck to them if they are.
484? For real? Crazy.
It’s hard to know where to begin with these fortunes, really. I suppose the incumbent is being blamed with the never ending economic malaise since the GFC, the inevitable horseplop that would follow the global covid response and for having just hung around too long - and generally for being s
t and mismanaging public opinion so badly that they’re widely regarded as being so st. All so recently after winning the previous GE with a mandate to simply get on with delivering Brexit - for good or bad. Remarkable really.Remarkable also that Labour are going to benefit so greatly from all this. Having been thought of as having lost that previous election comprehensively and staring oblivion in the face. So we were told. Who does this telling? The hyperbole spoken after that result shown up for being such nonsense. Yet here we are staring at the most monstrous probable Labour majority. At a time where it’s clear there’s so little separating the two parties. Far far less than was the case in my youth and younger years.
SNP representation likely to crumble too. Again, incumbents being blamed for being s
t and being seen to be st. Once again Labour hoovering up.I can’t recall an election remotely like it. It knocks 97 out of the park.
Interesting times.
Interesting times ahead, too, as I just can’t see how Labour are going to either particularly improve things - or be seen to have improved things. They’ll have exactly the same structural issues to deal with.
I was reading Politics in 97 at the sort of place where the tutors were almost exclusively left wing, but the students and especially their parents markedly less so. Even there you couldn’t escape the general feeling that the departing Conservative government had become very stale and there was a genuine expectation that things could only get better (TM). I’m just not feeling that now. Perhaps it’s simply an age thing. Maybe younger generations, equipped with a naturally more optimistic outlook are more excited for the future. Good luck to them if they are.
484? For real? Crazy.
CraigyMc said:
I'm being schooled by fking penguins
I think I agree with you, the uncertainty intervals are the most important thing.king penguinsI just don't think the polling companies have done a good job collectively - national vote share predictions are stable but the distribution is not so something there is not well understood or communicated.
Mr Penguin said:
CraigyMc said:
I'm being schooled by fking penguins
I think I agree with you, the uncertainty intervals are the most important thing.king penguinsI just don't think the polling companies have done a good job collectively - national vote share predictions are stable but the distribution is not so something there is not well understood or communicated.
Noot noot
scenario8 said:
It really is astonishing that the Conservative Party is getting itself into a position where it will end up at an anticipated 64 seats, and Labour will surge up to 484. 484?! Just incredible numbers. Where are all these MPs coming from?
It’s hard to know where to begin with these fortunes, really. I suppose the incumbent is being blamed with the never ending economic malaise since the GFC, the inevitable horseplop that would follow the global covid response and for having just hung around too long - and generally for being st and mismanaging public opinion so badly that they’re widely regarded as being so st. All so recently after winning the previous GE with a mandate to simply get on with delivering Brexit - for good or bad. Remarkable really.
Remarkable also that Labour are going to benefit so greatly from all this. Having been thought of as having lost that previous election comprehensively and staring oblivion in the face. So we were told. Who does this telling? The hyperbole spoken after that result shown up for being such nonsense. Yet here we are staring at the most monstrous probable Labour majority. At a time where it’s clear there’s so little separating the two parties. Far far less than was the case in my youth and younger years.
SNP representation likely to crumble too. Again, incumbents being blamed for being st and being seen to be st. Once again Labour hoovering up.
I can’t recall an election remotely like it. It knocks 97 out of the park.
Interesting times.
Interesting times ahead, too, as I just can’t see how Labour are going to either particularly improve things - or be seen to have improved things. They’ll have exactly the same structural issues to deal with.
I was reading Politics in 97 at the sort of place where the tutors were almost exclusively left wing, but the students and especially their parents markedly less so. Even there you couldn’t escape the general feeling that the departing Conservative government had become very stale and there was a genuine expectation that things could only get better (TM). I’m just not feeling that now. Perhaps it’s simply an age thing. Maybe younger generations, equipped with a naturally more optimistic outlook are more excited for the future. Good luck to them if they are.
484? For real? Crazy.
In 97 you could buy a decent house around here for £20k.It’s hard to know where to begin with these fortunes, really. I suppose the incumbent is being blamed with the never ending economic malaise since the GFC, the inevitable horseplop that would follow the global covid response and for having just hung around too long - and generally for being s
t and mismanaging public opinion so badly that they’re widely regarded as being so st. All so recently after winning the previous GE with a mandate to simply get on with delivering Brexit - for good or bad. Remarkable really.Remarkable also that Labour are going to benefit so greatly from all this. Having been thought of as having lost that previous election comprehensively and staring oblivion in the face. So we were told. Who does this telling? The hyperbole spoken after that result shown up for being such nonsense. Yet here we are staring at the most monstrous probable Labour majority. At a time where it’s clear there’s so little separating the two parties. Far far less than was the case in my youth and younger years.
SNP representation likely to crumble too. Again, incumbents being blamed for being s
t and being seen to be st. Once again Labour hoovering up.I can’t recall an election remotely like it. It knocks 97 out of the park.
Interesting times.
Interesting times ahead, too, as I just can’t see how Labour are going to either particularly improve things - or be seen to have improved things. They’ll have exactly the same structural issues to deal with.
I was reading Politics in 97 at the sort of place where the tutors were almost exclusively left wing, but the students and especially their parents markedly less so. Even there you couldn’t escape the general feeling that the departing Conservative government had become very stale and there was a genuine expectation that things could only get better (TM). I’m just not feeling that now. Perhaps it’s simply an age thing. Maybe younger generations, equipped with a naturally more optimistic outlook are more excited for the future. Good luck to them if they are.
484? For real? Crazy.
If you were young there were reasons to be optimistic.
I'm not so sure what there is to be optimistic about in 2024 if you're 18 and not sitting on an inheritance.
scenario8 said:
It really is astonishing that the Conservative Party is getting itself into a position where it will end up at an anticipated 64 seats, and Labour will surge up to 484. 484?! Just incredible numbers. Where are all these MPs coming from?
It’s hard to know where to begin with these fortunes, really. I suppose the incumbent is being blamed with the never ending economic malaise since the GFC, the inevitable horseplop that would follow the global covid response and for having just hung around too long - and generally for being st and mismanaging public opinion so badly that they’re widely regarded as being so st. All so recently after winning the previous GE with a mandate to simply get on with delivering Brexit - for good or bad. Remarkable really.
Remarkable also that Labour are going to benefit so greatly from all this. Having been thought of as having lost that previous election comprehensively and staring oblivion in the face. So we were told. Who does this telling? The hyperbole spoken after that result shown up for being such nonsense. Yet here we are staring at the most monstrous probable Labour majority. At a time where it’s clear there’s so little separating the two parties. Far far less than was the case in my youth and younger years.
SNP representation likely to crumble too. Again, incumbents being blamed for being st and being seen to be st. Once again Labour hoovering up.
I can’t recall an election remotely like it. It knocks 97 out of the park.
Interesting times.
Interesting times ahead, too, as I just can’t see how Labour are going to either particularly improve things - or be seen to have improved things. They’ll have exactly the same structural issues to deal with.
I was reading Politics in 97 at the sort of place where the tutors were almost exclusively left wing, but the students and especially their parents markedly less so. Even there you couldn’t escape the general feeling that the departing Conservative government had become very stale and there was a genuine expectation that things could only get better (TM). I’m just not feeling that now. Perhaps it’s simply an age thing. Maybe younger generations, equipped with a naturally more optimistic outlook are more excited for the future. Good luck to them if they are.
484? For real? Crazy.
I can't see it being that high...but who knows until Friday I guess.It’s hard to know where to begin with these fortunes, really. I suppose the incumbent is being blamed with the never ending economic malaise since the GFC, the inevitable horseplop that would follow the global covid response and for having just hung around too long - and generally for being s
t and mismanaging public opinion so badly that they’re widely regarded as being so st. All so recently after winning the previous GE with a mandate to simply get on with delivering Brexit - for good or bad. Remarkable really.Remarkable also that Labour are going to benefit so greatly from all this. Having been thought of as having lost that previous election comprehensively and staring oblivion in the face. So we were told. Who does this telling? The hyperbole spoken after that result shown up for being such nonsense. Yet here we are staring at the most monstrous probable Labour majority. At a time where it’s clear there’s so little separating the two parties. Far far less than was the case in my youth and younger years.
SNP representation likely to crumble too. Again, incumbents being blamed for being s
t and being seen to be st. Once again Labour hoovering up.I can’t recall an election remotely like it. It knocks 97 out of the park.
Interesting times.
Interesting times ahead, too, as I just can’t see how Labour are going to either particularly improve things - or be seen to have improved things. They’ll have exactly the same structural issues to deal with.
I was reading Politics in 97 at the sort of place where the tutors were almost exclusively left wing, but the students and especially their parents markedly less so. Even there you couldn’t escape the general feeling that the departing Conservative government had become very stale and there was a genuine expectation that things could only get better (TM). I’m just not feeling that now. Perhaps it’s simply an age thing. Maybe younger generations, equipped with a naturally more optimistic outlook are more excited for the future. Good luck to them if they are.
484? For real? Crazy.
I suspect Reform might do better than predicted.
Timothy Bucktu said:
scenario8 said:
It really is astonishing that the Conservative Party is getting itself into a position where it will end up at an anticipated 64 seats, and Labour will surge up to 484. 484?! Just incredible numbers. Where are all these MPs coming from?
It’s hard to know where to begin with these fortunes, really. I suppose the incumbent is being blamed with the never ending economic malaise since the GFC, the inevitable horseplop that would follow the global covid response and for having just hung around too long - and generally for being st and mismanaging public opinion so badly that they’re widely regarded as being so st. All so recently after winning the previous GE with a mandate to simply get on with delivering Brexit - for good or bad. Remarkable really.
Remarkable also that Labour are going to benefit so greatly from all this. Having been thought of as having lost that previous election comprehensively and staring oblivion in the face. So we were told. Who does this telling? The hyperbole spoken after that result shown up for being such nonsense. Yet here we are staring at the most monstrous probable Labour majority. At a time where it’s clear there’s so little separating the two parties. Far far less than was the case in my youth and younger years.
SNP representation likely to crumble too. Again, incumbents being blamed for being st and being seen to be st. Once again Labour hoovering up.
I can’t recall an election remotely like it. It knocks 97 out of the park.
Interesting times.
Interesting times ahead, too, as I just can’t see how Labour are going to either particularly improve things - or be seen to have improved things. They’ll have exactly the same structural issues to deal with.
I was reading Politics in 97 at the sort of place where the tutors were almost exclusively left wing, but the students and especially their parents markedly less so. Even there you couldn’t escape the general feeling that the departing Conservative government had become very stale and there was a genuine expectation that things could only get better (TM). I’m just not feeling that now. Perhaps it’s simply an age thing. Maybe younger generations, equipped with a naturally more optimistic outlook are more excited for the future. Good luck to them if they are.
484? For real? Crazy.
I can't see it being that high...but who knows until Friday I guess.It’s hard to know where to begin with these fortunes, really. I suppose the incumbent is being blamed with the never ending economic malaise since the GFC, the inevitable horseplop that would follow the global covid response and for having just hung around too long - and generally for being s
t and mismanaging public opinion so badly that they’re widely regarded as being so st. All so recently after winning the previous GE with a mandate to simply get on with delivering Brexit - for good or bad. Remarkable really.Remarkable also that Labour are going to benefit so greatly from all this. Having been thought of as having lost that previous election comprehensively and staring oblivion in the face. So we were told. Who does this telling? The hyperbole spoken after that result shown up for being such nonsense. Yet here we are staring at the most monstrous probable Labour majority. At a time where it’s clear there’s so little separating the two parties. Far far less than was the case in my youth and younger years.
SNP representation likely to crumble too. Again, incumbents being blamed for being s
t and being seen to be st. Once again Labour hoovering up.I can’t recall an election remotely like it. It knocks 97 out of the park.
Interesting times.
Interesting times ahead, too, as I just can’t see how Labour are going to either particularly improve things - or be seen to have improved things. They’ll have exactly the same structural issues to deal with.
I was reading Politics in 97 at the sort of place where the tutors were almost exclusively left wing, but the students and especially their parents markedly less so. Even there you couldn’t escape the general feeling that the departing Conservative government had become very stale and there was a genuine expectation that things could only get better (TM). I’m just not feeling that now. Perhaps it’s simply an age thing. Maybe younger generations, equipped with a naturally more optimistic outlook are more excited for the future. Good luck to them if they are.
484? For real? Crazy.
I suspect Reform might do better than predicted.
scenario8 said:
It really is astonishing that the Conservative Party is getting itself into a position where it will end up at an anticipated 64 seats, and Labour will surge up to 484. 484?! Just incredible numbers. Where are all these MPs coming from?
It’s hard to know where to begin with these fortunes, really. I suppose the incumbent is being blamed with the never ending economic malaise since the GFC, the inevitable horseplop that would follow the global covid response and for having just hung around too long - and generally for being st and mismanaging public opinion so badly that they’re widely regarded as being so st. All so recently after winning the previous GE with a mandate to simply get on with delivering Brexit - for good or bad. Remarkable really.
Remarkable also that Labour are going to benefit so greatly from all this. Having been thought of as having lost that previous election comprehensively and staring oblivion in the face. So we were told. Who does this telling? The hyperbole spoken after that result shown up for being such nonsense. Yet here we are staring at the most monstrous probable Labour majority. At a time where it’s clear there’s so little separating the two parties. Far far less than was the case in my youth and younger years.
SNP representation likely to crumble too. Again, incumbents being blamed for being st and being seen to be st. Once again Labour hoovering up.
I can’t recall an election remotely like it. It knocks 97 out of the park.
Interesting times.
Interesting times ahead, too, as I just can’t see how Labour are going to either particularly improve things - or be seen to have improved things. They’ll have exactly the same structural issues to deal with.
I was reading Politics in 97 at the sort of place where the tutors were almost exclusively left wing, but the students and especially their parents markedly less so. Even there you couldn’t escape the general feeling that the departing Conservative government had become very stale and there was a genuine expectation that things could only get better (TM). I’m just not feeling that now. Perhaps it’s simply an age thing. Maybe younger generations, equipped with a naturally more optimistic outlook are more excited for the future. Good luck to them if they are.
484? For real? Crazy.
The way to deal with the structural issues is by dealing with them. The Tories haven't been dealing with them and in many areas of Public spending, have been activly making them worse to further the neo-liberal, small government cause. It’s hard to know where to begin with these fortunes, really. I suppose the incumbent is being blamed with the never ending economic malaise since the GFC, the inevitable horseplop that would follow the global covid response and for having just hung around too long - and generally for being s
t and mismanaging public opinion so badly that they’re widely regarded as being so st. All so recently after winning the previous GE with a mandate to simply get on with delivering Brexit - for good or bad. Remarkable really.Remarkable also that Labour are going to benefit so greatly from all this. Having been thought of as having lost that previous election comprehensively and staring oblivion in the face. So we were told. Who does this telling? The hyperbole spoken after that result shown up for being such nonsense. Yet here we are staring at the most monstrous probable Labour majority. At a time where it’s clear there’s so little separating the two parties. Far far less than was the case in my youth and younger years.
SNP representation likely to crumble too. Again, incumbents being blamed for being s
t and being seen to be st. Once again Labour hoovering up.I can’t recall an election remotely like it. It knocks 97 out of the park.
Interesting times.
Interesting times ahead, too, as I just can’t see how Labour are going to either particularly improve things - or be seen to have improved things. They’ll have exactly the same structural issues to deal with.
I was reading Politics in 97 at the sort of place where the tutors were almost exclusively left wing, but the students and especially their parents markedly less so. Even there you couldn’t escape the general feeling that the departing Conservative government had become very stale and there was a genuine expectation that things could only get better (TM). I’m just not feeling that now. Perhaps it’s simply an age thing. Maybe younger generations, equipped with a naturally more optimistic outlook are more excited for the future. Good luck to them if they are.
484? For real? Crazy.
I'm not expecting miricles from Labour, but if they get that kind of majority, they could do a lot to start reversing the damage the Tories have done to public services.
The key problem to solve is GDP per capita. That needs to improve, and Labour needs to have a plan to improve it.
A question for people who know things... Maybe...
Is it possible for (say) the LibDems and SNP to form a coalition and so, because of number of joint seats, become the opposition? Because I seem to recall that there is legally no such thing as the official opposition.
LibDems aren't generally a threat in Scotland, so wouldn't need a deal not to contest seats there, and I'm sure they would agree to supporting Scottish independence, if it gave them a seat opposite the government in the chamber.
Is it possible for (say) the LibDems and SNP to form a coalition and so, because of number of joint seats, become the opposition? Because I seem to recall that there is legally no such thing as the official opposition.
LibDems aren't generally a threat in Scotland, so wouldn't need a deal not to contest seats there, and I'm sure they would agree to supporting Scottish independence, if it gave them a seat opposite the government in the chamber.
scenario8 said:
It really is astonishing that the Conservative Party is getting itself into a position where it will end up at an anticipated 64 seats, and Labour will surge up to 484. 484?! Just incredible numbers. Where are all these MPs coming from?
It’s hard to know where to begin with these fortunes, really. I suppose the incumbent is being blamed with the never ending economic malaise since the GFC, the inevitable horseplop that would follow the global covid response and for having just hung around too long - and generally for being st and mismanaging public opinion so badly that they’re widely regarded as being so st. All so recently after winning the previous GE with a mandate to simply get on with delivering Brexit - for good or bad. Remarkable really.
Remarkable also that Labour are going to benefit so greatly from all this. Having been thought of as having lost that previous election comprehensively and staring oblivion in the face. So we were told. Who does this telling? The hyperbole spoken after that result shown up for being such nonsense. Yet here we are staring at the most monstrous probable Labour majority. At a time where it’s clear there’s so little separating the two parties. Far far less than was the case in my youth and younger years.
SNP representation likely to crumble too. Again, incumbents being blamed for being st and being seen to be st. Once again Labour hoovering up.
I can’t recall an election remotely like it. It knocks 97 out of the park.
Interesting times.
Interesting times ahead, too, as I just can’t see how Labour are going to either particularly improve things - or be seen to have improved things. They’ll have exactly the same structural issues to deal with.
I was reading Politics in 97 at the sort of place where the tutors were almost exclusively left wing, but the students and especially their parents markedly less so. Even there you couldn’t escape the general feeling that the departing Conservative government had become very stale and there was a genuine expectation that things could only get better (TM). I’m just not feeling that now. Perhaps it’s simply an age thing. Maybe younger generations, equipped with a naturally more optimistic outlook are more excited for the future. Good luck to them if they are.
484? For real? Crazy.
What could possibly go wrong?It’s hard to know where to begin with these fortunes, really. I suppose the incumbent is being blamed with the never ending economic malaise since the GFC, the inevitable horseplop that would follow the global covid response and for having just hung around too long - and generally for being s
t and mismanaging public opinion so badly that they’re widely regarded as being so st. All so recently after winning the previous GE with a mandate to simply get on with delivering Brexit - for good or bad. Remarkable really.Remarkable also that Labour are going to benefit so greatly from all this. Having been thought of as having lost that previous election comprehensively and staring oblivion in the face. So we were told. Who does this telling? The hyperbole spoken after that result shown up for being such nonsense. Yet here we are staring at the most monstrous probable Labour majority. At a time where it’s clear there’s so little separating the two parties. Far far less than was the case in my youth and younger years.
SNP representation likely to crumble too. Again, incumbents being blamed for being s
t and being seen to be st. Once again Labour hoovering up.I can’t recall an election remotely like it. It knocks 97 out of the park.
Interesting times.
Interesting times ahead, too, as I just can’t see how Labour are going to either particularly improve things - or be seen to have improved things. They’ll have exactly the same structural issues to deal with.
I was reading Politics in 97 at the sort of place where the tutors were almost exclusively left wing, but the students and especially their parents markedly less so. Even there you couldn’t escape the general feeling that the departing Conservative government had become very stale and there was a genuine expectation that things could only get better (TM). I’m just not feeling that now. Perhaps it’s simply an age thing. Maybe younger generations, equipped with a naturally more optimistic outlook are more excited for the future. Good luck to them if they are.
484? For real? Crazy.
A socialist revolution.
pingu393 said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
Can't help with most of that but pretty sure there will be very little change and I can gaurentee the PM will not be clocking off at 6pm on Fridays. It's just not that sort of job.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/01/st...The Torygraph thinks it may be an issue - but they would, wouldn't they?
BBC and The Guardian aren't reporting it, but they wouldn't, would they?
philv said:
scenario8 said:
It really is astonishing that the Conservative Party is getting itself into a position where it will end up at an anticipated 64 seats, and Labour will surge up to 484. 484?! Just incredible numbers.
Not a chance those numbers will come to pass. Not wishful thinking on my part, I just think they are pie in the sky.
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