General Election July 2024
Discussion
The More in Common poll has Sir Keir winning last night 56% to 44%. I didn’t see it like that myself, but people clearly don’t like the shouty, aggressive stance that Sunak chose to deploy. He ought to learn from that - it’s not really about beating your opponent in a debating sense, it’s about winning the votes at home.
t.Kermit power said:
This is a good example of just how difficult it can be to get to the bottom of the truth behind the stats.
BBC More or Less looked into that claim that we've risen to 4th in the export league since Brexit a couple of weeks ago, and it turns out that it's sort of true, but only if you include the export of precious metals such as gold.
Now I don't of course wish to belittle the strengths of the UK gold mining industry, but it's not the amount pulled out of the ground here that moves the needle on exports but the amount of the stuff traded in the City, which can often count as an "export" without even leaving the country.
If you strip out exports of precious metals which aren't really exports at all in the way most people think of exports, then we drop back down to something like 8th. Still a highly creditable performance for a relatively small country with a heavily services-heavy industry, but not 4th, and not something which has improved since Brexit.
This is the kind of lying by statistics that really tells us that Brexit was a bad idea. They have to exclude a lot to make it look like the UK isn't underperforming (and that is putting it nicely). BBC More or Less looked into that claim that we've risen to 4th in the export league since Brexit a couple of weeks ago, and it turns out that it's sort of true, but only if you include the export of precious metals such as gold.
Now I don't of course wish to belittle the strengths of the UK gold mining industry, but it's not the amount pulled out of the ground here that moves the needle on exports but the amount of the stuff traded in the City, which can often count as an "export" without even leaving the country.
If you strip out exports of precious metals which aren't really exports at all in the way most people think of exports, then we drop back down to something like 8th. Still a highly creditable performance for a relatively small country with a heavily services-heavy industry, but not 4th, and not something which has improved since Brexit.
Services sector is way down since 2016, that is over half our trade.
Let's not even count the ne number of businesses that have departed including that of Brexit champion, Dyson, who moved their HQ to Singapore.
captain_cynic said:
This is the kind of lying by statistics that really tells us that Brexit was a bad idea. They have to exclude a lot to make it look like the UK isn't underperforming (and that is putting it nicely).
Services sector is way down since 2016, that is over half our trade.
Let's not even count the ne number of businesses that have departed including that of Brexit champion, Dyson, who moved their HQ to Singapore.
Are you suggesting the way exporting nations are ranked has changed?Services sector is way down since 2016, that is over half our trade.
Let's not even count the ne number of businesses that have departed including that of Brexit champion, Dyson, who moved their HQ to Singapore.
Oh, and services exports aren't down since 2016
From here https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-trade-...
captain_cynic said:
Kermit power said:
This is a good example of just how difficult it can be to get to the bottom of the truth behind the stats.
BBC More or Less looked into that claim that we've risen to 4th in the export league since Brexit a couple of weeks ago, and it turns out that it's sort of true, but only if you include the export of precious metals such as gold.
Now I don't of course wish to belittle the strengths of the UK gold mining industry, but it's not the amount pulled out of the ground here that moves the needle on exports but the amount of the stuff traded in the City, which can often count as an "export" without even leaving the country.
If you strip out exports of precious metals which aren't really exports at all in the way most people think of exports, then we drop back down to something like 8th. Still a highly creditable performance for a relatively small country with a heavily services-heavy industry, but not 4th, and not something which has improved since Brexit.
This is the kind of lying by statistics that really tells us that Brexit was a bad idea. They have to exclude a lot to make it look like the UK isn't underperforming (and that is putting it nicely). BBC More or Less looked into that claim that we've risen to 4th in the export league since Brexit a couple of weeks ago, and it turns out that it's sort of true, but only if you include the export of precious metals such as gold.
Now I don't of course wish to belittle the strengths of the UK gold mining industry, but it's not the amount pulled out of the ground here that moves the needle on exports but the amount of the stuff traded in the City, which can often count as an "export" without even leaving the country.
If you strip out exports of precious metals which aren't really exports at all in the way most people think of exports, then we drop back down to something like 8th. Still a highly creditable performance for a relatively small country with a heavily services-heavy industry, but not 4th, and not something which has improved since Brexit.
isaldiri said:
Offer more than ‘not being a tory’. The latter is sufficient to get him in given the pathetic shambles the conservatives are in but his certain victory has got very little to do with people believing in him personally and what he believes in - which mainly seems to be whatever that might get him up the greasy pole.
SKS strikes me as a "Tory-light" - a bit like Blair who is promising a term of stability and blaming the Tories for no money and high inflation, etc, but nothing too radical to rock the boat. Kind of a "Dear Tory voters, lend me your vote and judge me against my record as a centerist and I'll keep the extremes of the party in check"
vaud said:
isaldiri said:
Offer more than ‘not being a tory’. The latter is sufficient to get him in given the pathetic shambles the conservatives are in but his certain victory has got very little to do with people believing in him personally and what he believes in - which mainly seems to be whatever that might get him up the greasy pole.
SKS strikes me as a "Tory-light" - a bit like Blair who is promising a term of stability and blaming the Tories for no money and high inflation, etc, but nothing too radical to rock the boat. Kind of a "Dear Tory voters, lend me your vote and judge me against my record as a centerist and I'll keep the extremes of the party in check"
vaud said:
isaldiri said:
Offer more than ‘not being a tory’. The latter is sufficient to get him in given the pathetic shambles the conservatives are in but his certain victory has got very little to do with people believing in him personally and what he believes in - which mainly seems to be whatever that might get him up the greasy pole.
SKS strikes me as a "Tory-light" - a bit like Blair who is promising a term of stability and blaming the Tories for no money and high inflation, etc, but nothing too radical to rock the boat. Kind of a "Dear Tory voters, lend me your vote and judge me against my record as a centerist and I'll keep the extremes of the party in check"
isaldiri said:
His record as a centrist that includes being fully behind Corbin (twice) but of course excused because he thought Corbyn wouldn’t win so that’s fine…..?
I'm not justifying it, it's just how I am perceiving the narrative. As one questioner asked last night (and a bit like the US) - is the best we can find as candidates?
I'm not sure either has done enough to attract me to vote for their party so I will go back through the local candidates and inspect their local record more closely.
vaud said:
isaldiri said:
His record as a centrist that includes being fully behind Corbin (twice) but of course excused because he thought Corbyn wouldn’t win so that’s fine…..?
I'm not justifying it, it's just how I am perceiving the narrative. As one questioner asked last night (and a bit like the US) - is the best we can find as candidates?
I'm not sure either has done enough to attract me to vote for their party so I will go back through the local candidates and inspect their local record more closely.
Sway said:
captain_cynic said:
This is the kind of lying by statistics that really tells us that Brexit was a bad idea. They have to exclude a lot to make it look like the UK isn't underperforming (and that is putting it nicely).
Services sector is way down since 2016, that is over half our trade.
Let's not even count the ne number of businesses that have departed including that of Brexit champion, Dyson, who moved their HQ to Singapore.
Are you suggesting the way exporting nations are ranked has changed?Services sector is way down since 2016, that is over half our trade.
Let's not even count the ne number of businesses that have departed including that of Brexit champion, Dyson, who moved their HQ to Singapore.
Oh, and services exports aren't down since 2016
From here https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-trade-...
Showing in £’s is meaningless unless inflation is very low
The big increase in that table is 2022 and 2023 when inflation was much higher than historically.
blueg33 said:
Sway said:
captain_cynic said:
This is the kind of lying by statistics that really tells us that Brexit was a bad idea. They have to exclude a lot to make it look like the UK isn't underperforming (and that is putting it nicely).
Services sector is way down since 2016, that is over half our trade.
Let's not even count the ne number of businesses that have departed including that of Brexit champion, Dyson, who moved their HQ to Singapore.
Are you suggesting the way exporting nations are ranked has changed?Services sector is way down since 2016, that is over half our trade.
Let's not even count the ne number of businesses that have departed including that of Brexit champion, Dyson, who moved their HQ to Singapore.
Oh, and services exports aren't down since 2016
From here https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-trade-...
Showing in £’s is meaningless unless inflation is very low
The big increase in that table is 2022 and 2023 when inflation was much higher than historically.
Goods has remained essentially flat 2016-2013 accounting for inflation.
Lord Ashcroft: "Voters see Rishi as leading a gang out for themselves"
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2024/06/voters-see-r...
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2024/06/voters-see-r...
turbobloke said:
There's an Indy standing locally, very convenient.
We don't have an Indy standing and I'm wondering why. I'm half heartedly wondering if I should although I would be standing on a mandate of serving the community alongside no political party bovine faeces.Not sure if that would be enough in the modern age.
vaud said:
isaldiri said:
His record as a centrist that includes being fully behind Corbin (twice) but of course excused because he thought Corbyn wouldn’t win so that’s fine…..?
I'm not justifying it, it's just how I am perceiving the narrative. As one questioner asked last night (and a bit like the US) - is the best we can find as candidates?
I'm not sure either has done enough to attract me to vote for their party so I will go back through the local candidates and inspect their local record more closely.
carlo996 said:
S600BSB said:
Fortunately the vast majority of people in this country don’t want the extremes from either the left or the right anywhere near power. Long may it continue!
Yes, not long now for everyone to see the reality of your utopian Labour government 
Rivenink said:
carlo996 said:
S600BSB said:
Fortunately the vast majority of people in this country don’t want the extremes from either the left or the right anywhere near power. Long may it continue!
Yes, not long now for everyone to see the reality of your utopian Labour government https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/26/la...
isaldiri said:
His record as a centrist that includes being fully behind Corbin (twice) but of course excused because he thought Corbyn wouldn’t win so that’s fine…..?
The same purity test applied to the tory party, seeing as they all backed Johnson and Truss they must all be soiled and incapable of changing, so they should all resign? Fatuous in both instances.
hidetheelephants said:
isaldiri said:
His record as a centrist that includes being fully behind Corbin (twice) but of course excused because he thought Corbyn wouldn’t win so that’s fine…..?
The same purity test applied to the tory party, seeing as they all backed Johnson and Truss they must all be soiled and incapable of changing, so they should all resign? Fatuous in both instances.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff