Scottish Politics / Independence - Vol 12

[irc]

But it is vastly entertaining. Take at look at the 2021 Holyrood results. The SNP got 64 MSPs. Of those 62 were FPTP winners. This high percentage of FPTP seats was forecast long before the election. With a national vote share of 46.5% the SNP were always going to win the vast majority of FPTP seats.

This allowed them to push the SNP 1, Green 2 strategy. It worked fairly well as can be seen by the Green vote. 0.6% constituency but 6.2% on the list. So around 6% voted SNP1 Green 2. It worked. 66 SNP plus 6 Green list MSPs. Total 72 Nationalists.

This time in 2026. The SNP are obviously getting nowhere near 64 FPTP MSPs. People don't vote exactly the same in Westminster and Holyrood elections so they won't necessarily be down to 9 FPTP MSPs. If, however they get 35% of the national vote that won't get them that many more FPTPs. Say they get a total of between 15 and 20. They are then going to be looking for up to 3 list MSPs from the 8 regions. Top the list and you are certain of a seat. Second top, probably. Third top it depends how many FPTP seats the SNP get in that region.

So the top 2 places in the 8 regional lists are the gravy train. 16 places. To be fought over by 39 MPs who lost their seat on Thursday along with most of the current SNP FPTP MPs who will be losing their FPTP seats.

And of course now that the SNP have given the Greens a shot at govt. They are umlikely to go back to 0.3% FPTP polling. They will split the indy vote in a few places as well as maybe getting the same number list seats.

Then again if Reform stand and get anywhere near their 7% from llast week they could get 6 or 8 list seats. Maybe taking them from the Greens.

So allowing for any that retire or those that grab places in other public sector gravy trains before 2026 you might have over 50 former MPs and MSPs fighting for the top 16 list places.

That is before you allow for any of the footsoldiers, the councilors, the asssistants, the researchers, who reckon they have served their apprenticeship and are due a shot at the big time. They didn't join the SNP just to knock on doors, deliver leaflets, and troll online forums.

Interesting times ahead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parlia...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Scottish_Par...

[alangla]

irc said:

Then again if Reform stand and get anywhere near their 7% from llast week they could get 6 or 8 list seats. Maybe taking them from the Greens.

Given the Tories don’t hold many constituencies (I make it 5 out of their 31 total MSPs, concentrated in the south) and assuming Reform decide to field constituency candidates this time rather than just list as in 2021, is it not more likely that the Tories will find their number of list MSPs eroded?

Personally I doubt whether Tice/Farage will be all that bothered about Holyrood and may just field token list candidates without a huge amount of publicity.

It’s also very possible, IMO that we could see a repeat of the Westminster voting pattern and the Tory vote holds in their 5 at least, if not on the list. Either way, the main source of SNP seats in 2026 appears to be the list and it’s going to be entertaining watching them fight like ferrets in a sack for positions.

[irc]

alangla said:

Given the Tories don’t hold many constituencies (I make it 5 out of their 31 total MSPs, concentrated in the south) and assuming Reform decide to field constituency candidates this time rather than just list as in 2021, is it not more likely that the Tories will find their number of list MSPs eroded?

Personally I doubt whether Tice/Farage will be all that bothered about Holyrood and may just field token list candidates without a huge amount of publicity.

The Tories will lose seats if their list vote goes down. It is complicated and will vary from region to region. Last time they got 2 in Glasgow, just pipping the Greens. If the Green vote holds up and the Tories dip by 2% they will lose a seat to the Greens. If Reform stood and got past around 6% the lost Tory seat would go to them.

In other regions where the GReen vote is lower ii may be the Greens that lose.

I am getting a sore head looking at it. There is a clear explanation here.

https://ballotbox.scot/scottish-parliament/ams-exp...

[alangla]

Rather odd story on the front of the National and Glasgow Times, which I’m sure I’ve seen elsewhere. Has anyone actually met a Reform candidate? Presumably there must be photos of some of them at the declarations? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjernjyz0z5o

[hidetheelephants]

alangla said:

Rather odd story on the front of the National and Glasgow Times, which I’m sure I’ve seen elsewhere. Has anyone actually met a Reform candidate? Presumably there must be photos of some of them at the declarations? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjernjyz0z5o

The Scotsman; "Stalin's wee sister"

[hutchst]

irc said:

But it is vastly entertaining. Take at look at the 2021 Holyrood results. The SNP got 64 MSPs. Of those 62 were FPTP winners. This high percentage of FPTP seats was forecast long before the election. With a national vote share of 46.5% the SNP were always going to win the vast majority of FPTP seats.

This allowed them to push the SNP 1, Green 2 strategy. It worked fairly well as can be seen by the Green vote. 0.6% constituency but 6.2% on the list. So around 6% voted SNP1 Green 2. It worked. 66 SNP plus 6 Green list MSPs. Total 72 Nationalists.

This time in 2026. The SNP are obviously getting nowhere near 64 FPTP MSPs. People don't vote exactly the same in Westminster and Holyrood elections so they won't necessarily be down to 9 FPTP MSPs. If, however they get 35% of the national vote that won't get them that many more FPTPs. Say they get a total of between 15 and 20. They are then going to be looking for up to 3 list MSPs from the 8 regions. Top the list and you are certain of a seat. Second top, probably. Third top it depends how many FPTP seats the SNP get in that region.

So the top 2 places in the 8 regional lists are the gravy train. 16 places. To be fought over by 39 MPs who lost their seat on Thursday along with most of the current SNP FPTP MPs who will be losing their FPTP seats.

And of course now that the SNP have given the Greens a shot at govt. They are umlikely to go back to 0.3% FPTP polling. They will split the indy vote in a few places as well as maybe getting the same number list seats.

Then again if Reform stand and get anywhere near their 7% from llast week they could get 6 or 8 list seats. Maybe taking them from the Greens.

So allowing for any that retire or those that grab places in other public sector gravy trains before 2026 you might have over 50 former MPs and MSPs fighting for the top 16 list places.

That is before you allow for any of the footsoldiers, the councilors, the asssistants, the researchers, who reckon they have served their apprenticeship and are due a shot at the big time. They didn't join the SNP just to knock on doors, deliver leaflets, and troll online forums.

Interesting times ahead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parlia...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Scottish_Par...

ALBA? They may not win any seats, but they will hurt the old SNP/Green monopoly on indy votes, and open the door for Unionists in some marginal seats.

The only thing for sure is that the SNP will have fewer seats next time round, with more people fighting over them under a more balanced media gaze, with no money for proper campaigning.

[Leithen]

There’s every chance that the independence movement will fracture into several groups. It’s been inevitable as the only thing holding it together has been the prospect of independence. That boat has been holed multiple times below the water line.

Now the disparities in fundamental political beliefs will rear their ugly head. Without any money and even less credibility, any grip through fear, bribery etc, will be lost.

Without control, different factions will compete and find it very difficult to sit together. It may take until the next Scottish elections, but you just know that behind the scenes they all deeply distrust each other and in some cases detest their former colleagues.

Oh, and I doubt we’ll have to wait long for those elections.

[NoddyonNitrous]

What chance of the 2026 election happening sooner? Could the minority SNP administration still survive a vote of no confidence?

[Rick_1138]

NoddyonNitrous said:

What chance of the 2026 election happening sooner? Could the minority SNP administration still survive a vote of no confidence?

I remember Stephen Flynn on a QT episode saying something about if they have an early election, they still HAVE to have the one in 2026...why is that, is it a legal thing they must have elections every x years regardless how many in between??

[Evercross]

Rick_1138 said:

I remember Stephen Flynn on a QT episode saying something about if they have an early election, they still HAVE to have the one in 2026...why is that, is it a legal thing they must have elections every x years regardless how many in between??

It was one of the fk-ups changes introduced as a 'temporary measure' during Covid and then left in place. The Scottish Elections (Reform) Act 2020 changed the interval from 4 years to 5 and added a clause that an extraordinary election within the 5 year parliamentary period would only supplant a scheduled election if it happened within 6 months of the end of a parliamentary period.

Next Scottish Parliament election.

Just another way in which Scotland is less democratically accountable than rUK (the lack of legal separation of legislature and judiciary by having the Lord Advocate sitting on the cabinet being another).

Edited by Evercross on Wednesday 10th July 11:56

[Scotty2]

Oh, this is getting tasty! Telling it like it is, well telling it now after we all knew...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevwdy7llrlo

[wobert]

Scotty2 said:

Oh, this is getting tasty! Telling it like it is, well telling it now after we all knew...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevwdy7llrlo

Ouch!

[Ian974]

Evercross said:

It was one of the fk-ups changes introduced as a 'temporary measure' during Covid and then left in place. The Scottish Elections (Reform) Act 2020 changed the interval from 4 years to 5 and added a clause that an extraordinary election within the 5 year parliamentary period would only supplant a scheduled election if it happened within 6 months of the end of a parliamentary period.

Next Scottish Parliament election.

Just another way in which Scotland is less democratically accountable than rUK (the lack of legal separation of legislature and judiciary by having the Lord Advocate sitting on the cabinet being another).

Edited by Evercross on Wednesday 10th July 11:56

fk me, I'd not heard of that one, giving themselves an extra year in power, because 'rona?
I can't say I'm overly surprised, I am however very surprised that they managed to shoehorn that through without much noise about it

[Evercross]

Scotty2 said:

Oh, this is getting tasty! Telling it like it is, well telling it now after we all knew...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevwdy7llrlo

BBC said:

For those who follow Scottish politics closely, his critique will come as no surprise.

Indeed, which begs the question why weren't the Scottish media reporting on it before now? Again, the answer is something we all know!

[irc]

Evercross said:

Scotty2 said:

Oh, this is getting tasty! Telling it like it is, well telling it now after we all knew...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevwdy7llrlo

BBC said:

For those who follow Scottish politics closely, his critique will come as no surprise.

Indeed, which begs the question why weren't the Scottish media reporting on it before now? Again, the answer is something we all know!

"Wheesht for indy" didnot just apply to SNP members.

[sherman]

Balfour Beatty given the contract to dual part of the A9 .
£185m and that only gets us 5 miles of extra road.
Tomatin to Moy


Bet they dont get change of £250m by the time its built.

https://news.stv.tv/highlands-islands/scottish-gov...

[tim0409]

Rick_1138 said:

NoddyonNitrous said:

What chance of the 2026 election happening sooner? Could the minority SNP administration still survive a vote of no confidence?

I remember Stephen Flynn on a QT episode saying something about if they have an early election, they still HAVE to have the one in 2026...why is that, is it a legal thing they must have elections every x years regardless how many in between??

That’s true, I remember that being mentioned when it all kicked off with the Greens.

I very much doubt there will be an election because it isn’t in the SNP or Green’s interest. The SNP will be battling for every list seat so they might be a bit less keen on tacitly supporting SNP 1 and Green 2 this time around.

[Roderick Spode]

sherman said:

Balfour Beatty given the contract to dual part of the A9 .
£185m and that only gets us 5 miles of extra road.
Tomatin to Moy


Bet they dont get change of £250m by the time its built.

https://news.stv.tv/highlands-islands/scottish-gov...

Five miles of road, or one incomplete ferry. Decisions decisions.

Perhaps Balfours could build a waterway alongside the existing A9, and Glen Rustbox could ply her trade back and forth between Schnecky and Aviemore.

[hidetheelephants]

Important decisions made today; Flynn is nominated westminster leader again and Blackman is whip. A whip for 9 MPs. Good to see they've got their priorities straight.

[Klippie]

I've been trying to find a picture of the new SNP MP's in Parliment...just to see how sour their faces are.