Scottish Politics / Independence - Vol 12

[Essarell]

Swinney on R5L Nicky Campbell @ 9:00am, let’s see if he gets an easy ride

[csd19]

irc said:

Snow and Rocks said:

rossub said:

Unfortunately you’re a bit Central belt bias there.

Aberdeen and Dundee really aren’t the Highlands. I’ll be gutted if that turns out to be accurate.

I wonder about the methodology - in a tory seat in Aberdeenshire here and everyone locally I've spoken to who's mentioned the election has mentioned keeping the SNP out.

I wonder if they just apply a nationwide percentage reduction in Tory support to each individual seat?

I think not. Thislink shows the predicted votes per seat. The northeast are all only around 1% difference so all to play for.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_scot.html

Maybe some reform voters will realise the beating the SNP in Scotland is more important than kicking the Tories. Maybe there are 1 or 2% shy Tories not telling the truth when polled.

I don't think the Tories will hold all their seats but I would be surprised to see them as low as 1.

Edited by irc on Sunday 30th June 19:00

After the boundary changes I'm now lumped in with some of the east end of Dundee so it seems I won't be getting rid of the SNP here.

Might just draw a cock and balls on the ballot paper as it's pointless otherwise. Vote for labour, they want to destroy my industry, same for the SNP. Conservatives are on for a pasting, Libdems no.

[Essarell]

Completely caught out by the gender question……

[irc]

Essarell said:

Completely caught out by the gender question……

Why would he suddenly know what a woman is now?
I didn't hear the R5 item but I presume he was unable to square the circle about trans rights and women not wanting a guy with a penis watching them get changed.

https://news.sky.com/story/nurses-suing-their-empl...

[gofasterrosssco]

Snow and Rocks said:

rossub said:

Unfortunately you’re a bit Central belt bias there.

Aberdeen and Dundee really aren’t the Highlands. I’ll be gutted if that turns out to be accurate.

I wonder about the methodology - in a tory seat in Aberdeenshire here and everyone locally I've spoken to who's mentioned the election has mentioned keeping the SNP out.

I wonder if they just apply a nationwide percentage reduction in Tory support to each individual seat?

Just looked at the election map - got to be one of the most marginal seats with 0.1% between the SNP and Torys on Gordon & Buchan. So looks like Reform voters are handing it to the SNP (unfortunately).

[Rick_1138]

gofasterrosssco said:

Snow and Rocks said:

rossub said:

Unfortunately you’re a bit Central belt bias there.

Aberdeen and Dundee really aren’t the Highlands. I’ll be gutted if that turns out to be accurate.

I wonder about the methodology - in a tory seat in Aberdeenshire here and everyone locally I've spoken to who's mentioned the election has mentioned keeping the SNP out.

I wonder if they just apply a nationwide percentage reduction in Tory support to each individual seat?

Just looked at the election map - got to be one of the most marginal seats with 0.1% between the SNP and Torys on Gordon & Buchan. So looks like Reform voters are handing it to the SNP (unfortunately).

same with my newly restructured seat of Moray west, SNP toad is going to keep it as the resurgent Labour vote and the tory vote split between them and Reform. Sad, but i still expect the Westminster SNP contingent to get a battering down to 4th largest party, further scuppering their fight of the Scottish election in 18 months

[Roderick Spode]

Seen some polling suggesting the SNP are going to end on ~5 seats. I cannot adequately describe the alcohol fuelled coma I will be in if that happens.

More realistically high teens to early twenties seems a more sensible estimate, with even the most generous pollsters predicting them not to break the 30 barrier.

So long as they lose substantial amounts of short money and are as a result bankrupted, I'll be happy.

[irc]

Roderick Spode said:

Seen some polling suggesting the SNP are going to end on ~5 seats. I cannot adequately describe the alcohol fuelled coma I will be in if that happens.

More realistically high teens to early twenties seems a more sensible estimate, with even the most generous pollsters predicting them not to break the 30 barrier.

So long as they lose substantial amounts of short money and are as a result bankrupted, I'll be happy.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that there are enough shy Tories to stop them picking up 4 or 5 seats from them. Then there needs to be just another 1 or 2% switch from SNP to Labour or Alba or Green to sink them into single figures by most SNP/Labour marginals going to Labour.

A big Brucey bonus if Stephen Flynn lost his seat but I don't think off the top of my head he is a marginal.

[halo34]

This is my worry - victory because tactical voting isnt apparent and other parties divide opinion.

[Ecosseven]

Roderick Spode said:

Seen some polling suggesting the SNP are going to end on ~5 seats. I cannot adequately describe the alcohol fuelled coma I will be in if that happens.

More realistically high teens to early twenties seems a more sensible estimate, with even the most generous pollsters predicting them not to break the 30 barrier.

So long as they lose substantial amounts of short money and are as a result bankrupted, I'll be happy.

Many of the seats in Scotland have wafer thin majorities so a few votes either way could make a huge difference to the overall numbers. The latest prediction from electoral calculus is shown below. The prediction for the one Tory seat is on a knife edge - 30% Conservative - 29.9% Labour.......

[hidetheelephants]

July 5th could pass entirely in an alcoholic haze.

[irc]

I am resetting my expectations. A year and a half ago Sturgeon was still FM and they had 48 MPs.

Sturgeon is gone. Her husband has been charged and she is still under investigation. They are going to end up with less than half the MPs.

I am very pleased with that. If they ended up in single figures that would be the best result for Scotland since Andy Murray won Wimbledon.

[Klippie]

irc said:

I am resetting my expectations. A year and a half ago Sturgeon was still FM and they had 48 MPs.

Sturgeon is gone. Her husband has been charged and she is still under investigation. They are going to end up with less than half the MPs.

I am very pleased with that. If they ended up in single figures that would be the best result for Scotland since Andy Murray won Wimbledon.

Mr Mumbles is an SNP supporter is he not..???

[Evercross]

irc said:

If they ended up in single figures that would be the best result for Scotland since Andy Murray won Wimbledon.

That's the extreme but not unlikely outcome. Fewer seats than Labour is a catastrophic outcome politically. Every seat lost is a catastrophic outcome financially.

Swinney's already laid the ground for the expected losses, stating that the SNP still have a mandate for another referendum because they won the 2021 Holyrood election (despite since being confirmed by the Supreme Court that the devolved parliament never had the legal competence for one therefor no such mandate could exist).

The next two years for the SNP Scottish Government will be like the last two years for the Conservative Westminster Government - a lame duck staving off the inevitable.

[hidetheelephants]

The endless yapping about mandates is so much hot air; no letter to the PM asking for permission to conduct a referendum means they're full of st. They're there for the perks and expenses.

[Evercross]

hidetheelephants said:

The endless yapping about mandates is so much hot air; no letter to the PM asking for permission to conduct a referendum means they're full of st. They're there for the perks and expenses.

People talk of politicians being disingenuous, but there is nothing more disingenuous than for a political leader to claim mandates for matters that are not in their jurisdiction. There may have been doubt over the competency in 2021 (although the Scotland Act was pretty clear - it had just never been legally tested) but there isn't any more. Sturgeon made sure of that and Swinney is bare faced lying when he ignores that.

He should be called out on it every time he or any other extremist Scottish Nationalist says it. Rather than lie and say they have a mandate it would be more honest (and probably politically expedient) to say that it is an injustice that despite winning on a platform to hold a referendum they are not legally allowed to have one.

Oh, hang on, did they not state it would be in their manifesto - chapter 1 line 1 - but then conveniently "forgot" to put it in there.....?

Edited by Evercross on Monday 1st July 17:46

[A.J.M]

Scottish Labour have just been at the door.

They must really smell blood as I’ve never had a door step canvasser before.

[alangla]

A.J.M said:

Scottish Labour have just been at the door.

They must really smell blood as I’ve never had a door step canvasser before.

I could wallpaper my house with the amount of letters and leaflets we’ve received from them. The candidate was round as well, maybe a month or so before the election was announced. Interestingly, I also had an SNP canvasser round back in the spring, they normally don’t bother either. Very few window posters of any party around here, I suspect everyone is just a bit fed up with politics at the moment.

As an aside, what happened to the lamp-post signs that the various parties used to put up? Have these been banned or something? I know there were meant to be rules about removing them after the election etc but I can’t remember seeing any at all this time round

[hidetheelephants]

There's a st load of them round my way and in the vale of leven. Maybe your constituency isn't seen as a likely prospect?

[alangla]

hidetheelephants said:

There's a st load of them round my way and in the vale of leven. Maybe your constituency isn't seen as a likely prospect?

Fag paper between Labour and the SNP in 2017, 5500 majority for the SNP in 2019, it’s absolutely in play and Starmer has visited earlier in the campaign apparently.