Missing lad in Tenerife

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Discussion

Petrus1983

9,030 posts

164 months

Wednesday
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Kitchski said:
skwdenyer said:
Because 170k people are reported missing every year; because the media loves a mystery with a chance of a resolution. Nicola Bulley vanished in an instant in broad daylight; Michael Mosley likewise just wandered off; this lad likewise; the chap a few years back who is believed to have slept in a dumpster; and so on.

My sister drove her car to a remote location and vanished. It looks like a deliberate act, because it was - she drove there. There's no real mystery, no whodunnit. She's just missing, but there's no obvious chance she was abducted (by humans, aliens or beasts).

There's no intriguing story. She's just another missing person. And most people would say they already know what the outcome is; we just don't have the detail yet.

We did get some traction in the media. But to really cut through you need that additional "X" factor. And even then, the media cycle will soon pass, and all you're left with is the hangover from the false hope that lots of media attention will actually change anything. And maybe (if that's who you are, and your story happens to cut through) some money from a fundraiser or selling interviews etc.

For those with an interest, of those 170k people reported missing, 77% are found within 24 hours, 87% within 48 hours. 3% will be missing longer than a week; <1% for longer than a month. At any one time there are over 5000 people who are "long term missing" (meaning more than one year). Of those 170k per year, about 0.5% have fatal outcomes.
Interesting post, appreciate that.
skwdenyer has an eye opening/sad thread over here -

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Just incase you hadn't noticed it before.

BoRED S2upid

19,840 posts

242 months

Wednesday
quotequote all
Triumph Man said:
carl_w said:
Have they extrapolated from the seagull and the chiuaua?
More likely eaten by bears.

GliderRider

2,227 posts

83 months

Wednesday
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carl_w said:
"Broadsword calling Danny Boy..."

Have they checked on the roof of the cable car?

Byker28i

62,022 posts

219 months

Wednesday
quotequote all
Petrus1983 said:
Kitchski said:
skwdenyer said:
Because 170k people are reported missing every year; because the media loves a mystery with a chance of a resolution. Nicola Bulley vanished in an instant in broad daylight; Michael Mosley likewise just wandered off; this lad likewise; the chap a few years back who is believed to have slept in a dumpster; and so on.

My sister drove her car to a remote location and vanished. It looks like a deliberate act, because it was - she drove there. There's no real mystery, no whodunnit. She's just missing, but there's no obvious chance she was abducted (by humans, aliens or beasts).

There's no intriguing story. She's just another missing person. And most people would say they already know what the outcome is; we just don't have the detail yet.

We did get some traction in the media. But to really cut through you need that additional "X" factor. And even then, the media cycle will soon pass, and all you're left with is the hangover from the false hope that lots of media attention will actually change anything. And maybe (if that's who you are, and your story happens to cut through) some money from a fundraiser or selling interviews etc.

For those with an interest, of those 170k people reported missing, 77% are found within 24 hours, 87% within 48 hours. 3% will be missing longer than a week; <1% for longer than a month. At any one time there are over 5000 people who are "long term missing" (meaning more than one year). Of those 170k per year, about 0.5% have fatal outcomes.
Interesting post, appreciate that.
skwdenyer has an eye opening/sad thread over here -

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Just incase you hadn't noticed it before.
Actually full of information on the steps taken to try to locate a missing person, quite eye opening

Petrus1983

9,030 posts

164 months

Wednesday
quotequote all
Byker28i said:
Actually full of information on the steps taken to try to locate a missing person, quite eye opening
Really is.

2HFL

1,328 posts

43 months

g4ry13

17,378 posts

257 months

Wednesday
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2HFL said:
Probably a case of mistaken identity. He looks like any other English chav.

Wozy68

5,398 posts

172 months

Wednesday
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I hadn’t realised until now just where he was walking from.

I can’t understand this at all. The area he was in, if he stuck to the road (and there’s absolutely no reason not too as it’s the easiest way of getting anywhere), he would have been found/seen in daylight within twenty minutes.

I’ve driven the road several times past Masca ….. It’s a twisty narrow but well tarmaced that has a decent amount of traffic on it, tourist and local. It also has barriers to the road edge.

Lastly because of its geological location within the mountains and the sea, it doesn’t get that hot during the day unlike other parts of the island especially in the South. The north and north west of the island is quite temperate.



Richard-390a0

2,348 posts

93 months

Wednesday
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g4ry13 said:
2HFL said:
Probably a case of mistaken identity. He looks like any other English chav.
The bottom of that news feed the mayor of the town that CCTV footage is supposedly from says he doesn't recognise it as being anywhere in his town lol.

98elise

27,086 posts

163 months

Wednesday
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Wozy68 said:
I hadn’t realised until now just where he was walking from.

I can’t understand this at all. The area he was in, if he stuck to the road (and there’s absolutely no reason not too as it’s the easiest way of getting anywhere), he would have been found/seen in daylight within twenty minutes.

I’ve driven the road several times past Masca ….. It’s a twisty narrow but well tarmaced that has a decent amount of traffic on it, tourist and local. It also has barriers to the road edge.

Lastly because of its geological location within the mountains and the sea, it doesn’t get that hot during the day unlike other parts of the island especially in the South. The north and north west of the island is quite temperate.
Agreed. North and South are very different, like two different countries at times.


Alickadoo

1,890 posts

25 months

Wednesday
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skwdenyer said:
For those with an interest, of those 170k people reported missing, 77% are found within 24 hours, 87% within 48 hours. 3% will be missing longer than a week; <1% for longer than a month. At any one time there are over 5000 people who are "long term missing" (meaning more than one year). Of those 170k per year, about 0.5% have fatal outcomes.
Is that right? Those figures are rather neat.
77% within 24 hours
87% within 48 hours
97% within a week

skwdenyer

17,021 posts

242 months

Wednesday
quotequote all
Alickadoo said:
skwdenyer said:
For those with an interest, of those 170k people reported missing, 77% are found within 24 hours, 87% within 48 hours. 3% will be missing longer than a week; <1% for longer than a month. At any one time there are over 5000 people who are "long term missing" (meaning more than one year). Of those 170k per year, about 0.5% have fatal outcomes.
Is that right? Those figures are rather neat.
77% within 24 hours
87% within 48 hours
97% within a week
Those are the quoted long-run averages. I agree, they're probably ballpark. But I'll confess I've not been interested in the average missing person, only my sister.

dave123456

1,892 posts

149 months

Wednesday
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I suspect he’s done a bunk over something relatively trivial.

Earthdweller

13,739 posts

128 months

Wednesday
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Alickadoo said:
Is that right? Those figures are rather neat.
77% within 24 hours
87% within 48 hours
97% within a week
Most MFH reports come from children’s homes where the late return or failure to return. You’d be staggered at the numbers and amount of Police time “wasted” in reporting/recording/locating/returning and cancelling the reports .. till the next night when they do it all over again


The little darlings almost invariably return of their own accord or are picked up by Police and returned

Elsewhere most reappear or are located by Police

A number of long term MFH can also be kids taken by an estranged parent abroad . The Police likely know where they are but cannot recover them

There’s a myriad of reasons but I’d say the above figures are about right

The number like skydenywr’s sister are fortunately the minority

Ascayman

12,796 posts

218 months

Wednesday
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He’s probably just WFH, can never get hold of those lazy feckers

skwdenyer

17,021 posts

242 months

Wednesday
quotequote all
Earthdweller said:
Alickadoo said:
Is that right? Those figures are rather neat.
77% within 24 hours
87% within 48 hours
97% within a week
Most MFH reports come from children’s homes where the late return or failure to return. You’d be staggered at the numbers and amount of Police time “wasted” in reporting/recording/locating/returning and cancelling the reports .. till the next night when they do it all over again


The little darlings almost invariably return of their own accord or are picked up by Police and returned

Elsewhere most reappear or are located by Police

A number of long term MFH can also be kids taken by an estranged parent abroad . The Police likely know where they are but cannot recover them

There’s a myriad of reasons but I’d say the above figures are about right

The number like skydenywr’s sister are fortunately the minority
Just for clarity, the data I quoted was for *adults* reported missing; you're right, there's a lot of "noise" in the data for children.

eldar

21,979 posts

198 months

Wednesday
quotequote all
Statistics relating to uk missing persons. An illuminating read, 31 pages.

Download PDF from NCA

https://missingpersons.police.uk/en-gb/resources/d...

2HFL

1,328 posts

43 months

Wednesday
quotequote all
Just picked up on this clip which was posted, which purports to be Lucy (in distress) finding/talking to Jay, if it’s legit and even them of course.

https://streamable.com/0wyyz5

skwdenyer

17,021 posts

242 months

Wednesday
quotequote all
2HFL said:
Just picked up on this clip which was posted, which purports to be Lucy (in distress) finding/talking to Jay, if it’s legit and even them of course.

https://streamable.com/0wyyz5
If true, that seems like it might lend support to the anonymous post on Facebook detailing the mechanics of the supposed drug dealing, the missing bag, etc.

Bonefish Blues

27,554 posts

225 months

Thursday
quotequote all
dave123456 said:
I suspect he’s done a bunk over something relatively trivial.
I think I'm in the bunking camp - bad men, in over head and so on. 'I know Lucy, I could just disappear and everyone would think I was dead'