Your Voting Intentions Part 2.0 (End Is Nigh)

[fatbutt]

Reform is just a money making scam by Farage utilising many lessons learned from his time with Trump.

[P-Jay]

Fast and Spurious said:

Reform on 30%!!!!

It's a poll on NP&E, I'm amazed anyone has even dared to vote for any party left of centre.

[P-Jay]

This is interesting:

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/unite...

I've always assumed that Reform takes the bulk of it's votes from disillusioned Tories (as well as all the right-wing weirdos) but this seems to suggest that their recent upswing seems to have come as the expense of Labour and the Tories in equal measure.

Friday is going to be a fun, exciting day on NP&E, exit polls and data is going to be pulled apart to 'prove' this or that, it's going to get very flighty as some of the hardcore go through the seven stages.

[119]

P-Jay said:

This is interesting:

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/unite...

I've always assumed that Reform takes the bulk of it's votes from disillusioned Tories (as well as all the right-wing weirdos) but this seems to suggest that their recent upswing seems to have come as the expense of Labour and the Tories in equal measure.

Friday is going to be a fun, exciting day on NP&E, exit polls and data is going to be pulled apart to 'prove' this or that, it's going to get very flighty as some of the hardcore go through the seven stages.

'Fun' is most certainly the correct word, and i have booked my front row seat in NPE already.

[Catweazle]

119 said:

P-Jay said:

This is interesting:

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/unite...

I've always assumed that Reform takes the bulk of it's votes from disillusioned Tories (as well as all the right-wing weirdos) but this seems to suggest that their recent upswing seems to have come as the expense of Labour and the Tories in equal measure.

Friday is going to be a fun, exciting day on NP&E, exit polls and data is going to be pulled apart to 'prove' this or that, it's going to get very flighty as some of the hardcore go through the seven stages.

'Fun' is most certainly the correct word, and i have booked my front row seat in NPE already.

Front row seats still available here. https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

[I am alright Jack]

119 said:

P-Jay said:

This is interesting:

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/unite...

I've always assumed that Reform takes the bulk of it's votes from disillusioned Tories (as well as all the right-wing weirdos) but this seems to suggest that their recent upswing seems to have come as the expense of Labour and the Tories in equal measure.

Friday is going to be a fun, exciting day on NP&E, exit polls and data is going to be pulled apart to 'prove' this or that, it's going to get very flighty as some of the hardcore go through the seven stages.

'Fun' is most certainly the correct word, and i have booked my front row seat in NPE already.

I think reform will do quite well, there's a few from the left in here that seem to be doing their utmost to help them.

[Wills2]

I'm very much torn, I think it's time for a change at a national level and let Labour have a go, but my local tory MP is good I had the same issue when my MP was Labour because she was very good as well.

Often very diligent and hard working MPs get the rug pulled from underneath them due to national issues, I'm at the moment going Tory due to local issues that he has done very well with.

[spikyone]

Wills2 said:

I'm very much torn, I think it's time for a change at a national level and let Labour have a go, but my local tory MP is good I had the same issue when my MP was Labour because she was very good as well.

Often very diligent and hard working MPs get the rug pulled from underneath them due to national issues, I'm at the moment going Tory due to local issues that he has done very well with.

This is pretty much where I've landed too, the local Tory is one of the better MPs in general. I don't expect him to win as the locals here seem particularly dim-witted; the Labour run council is a shambles yet they still increased the number of seats at the recent local elections. If that was intended as a protest vote, it was a bloody stupid one.

[S600BSB]

Wills2 said:

I'm very much torn, I think it's time for a change at a national level and let Labour have a go, but my local tory MP is good I had the same issue when my MP was Labour because she was very good as well.

Often very diligent and hard working MPs get the rug pulled from underneath them due to national issues, I'm at the moment going Tory due to local issues that he has done very well with.

If you have a really good local Tory MP then I think you should vote for then (assuming they are not a ERG headbanger etc).

[119]

Wills2 said:

I'm very much torn, I think it's time for a change at a national level and let Labour have a go, but my local tory MP is good I had the same issue when my MP was Labour because she was very good as well.

Often very diligent and hard working MPs get the rug pulled from underneath them due to national issues, I'm at the moment going Tory due to local issues that he has done very well with.

I’m heading that way with my thinking but still not convinced about any of them if I’m honest

I still haven’t had a single leaflet or visit yet!

[FiF]

spikyone said:

Wills2 said:

I'm very much torn, I think it's time for a change at a national level and let Labour have a go, but my local tory MP is good I had the same issue when my MP was Labour because she was very good as well.

Often very diligent and hard working MPs get the rug pulled from underneath them due to national issues, I'm at the moment going Tory due to local issues that he has done very well with.

This is pretty much where I've landed too, the local Tory is one of the better MPs in general. I don't expect him to win as the locals here seem particularly dim-witted; the Labour run council is a shambles yet they still increased the number of seats at the recent local elections. If that was intended as a protest vote, it was a bloody stupid one.

Similar to those above, the local Tory incumbent, even though doesn't live in the constituency though not too far away, and in an agricultural tenancy grrrr, is the only one who in his campaign is raising local and national issues where he's done good work and talking about future projects he would like to do. To be fair his opponents can't cite anything actually achieved but could at least talk more local issues than the generalities of their parties.

Much as the Tory party needs to get a kick in order to get act together have decided a GE is not the place for a protest vote especially at this time. Reluctantly.

[crofty1984]

My local Labour candidate used to work at Halfords so I'm voting for him.

[valiant]

119 said:

I’m heading that way with my thinking but still not convinced about any of them if I’m honest

I still haven’t had a single leaflet or visit yet!

Sitting on your porch, polishing your shotgun will have that effect I’m afraid.

[CraigyMc]

FiF said:

have decided a GE is not the place for a protest vote

It's pretty much the only time it'll make any difference, to my mind.

[119]

valiant said:

119 said:

I’m heading that way with my thinking but still not convinced about any of them if I’m honest

I still haven’t had a single leaflet or visit yet!

Sitting on your porch, polishing your shotgun will have that effect I’m afraid.

Now you've said that , i am wondering if someone else has beaten me to it.

[FiF]

CraigyMc said:

FiF said:

have decided a GE is not the place for a protest vote

It's pretty much the only time it'll make any difference, to my mind.

I see your point which is fair and I would agree if we were permitted a none of the above vote which would be counted and reported.

However as we are not so allowed that leaves null and spoiled ballots which count for nothing.

Which leaves the only other option in this election of a vote for a party or candidate that you don't particularly wish to secure victory in the hope of sending a message to a party with whom you're dissatisfied but thereby doing so giving victory to a party that would absolutely be your last choice to run the place, well apart from Greens maybe, and where do you start with that shower?

I think a GE is too important to start playing those sort of games as the prizes may be even more unwelcome.

But that's just my 2p.

[markh1973]

S600BSB said:

Wills2 said:

I'm very much torn, I think it's time for a change at a national level and let Labour have a go, but my local tory MP is good I had the same issue when my MP was Labour because she was very good as well.

Often very diligent and hard working MPs get the rug pulled from underneath them due to national issues, I'm at the moment going Tory due to local issues that he has done very well with.

If you have a really good local Tory MP then I think you should vote for then (assuming they are not a ERG headbanger etc).

My local Tory MP gives a good impression of caring about the local issues but when she speaks as part of her cabinet job she clearly has no idea about what she's talking about.

She isn't so good locally that I could overlook her national level utterings.

[Mr Miata]

I want to tactical vote as I live in a safe Conservative seat and want them to lose. The problem is, who is everyone else going to vote for? Because it’s a safe Tory seat, would most voters defect to Reform rather than vote Labour?

It seems prediction websites or tactical voting only look at the previous General Election result, which Reform wasn’t part of.

[TeaNoSugar]

Mr Miata said:

I want to tactical vote as I live in a safe Conservative seat and want them to lose. The problem is, who is everyone else going to vote for? Because it’s a safe Tory seat, would most voters defect to Reform rather than vote Labour?

It seems prediction websites or tactical voting only look at the previous General Election result, which Reform wasn’t part of.

Have you tried electoral calculus? They give some interesting predictions, although it must be a bit speculative when it comes toe reform (for the reason you point out).

[S600BSB]

TeaNoSugar said:

Mr Miata said:

I want to tactical vote as I live in a safe Conservative seat and want them to lose. The problem is, who is everyone else going to vote for? Because it’s a safe Tory seat, would most voters defect to Reform rather than vote Labour?

It seems prediction websites or tactical voting only look at the previous General Election result, which Reform wasn’t part of.

Have you tried electoral calculus? They give some interesting predictions, although it must be a bit speculative when it comes toe reform (for the reason you point out).

There is quite a bit of information around if you look for it.