Your Voting Intentions Part 2.0 (End Is Nigh)

[Earthdweller]

Gary C said:

EmBe said:

I also wonder about the 'red wall', I suspect any of them could care less about issues like gender and net zero so a metropolitan Labour party are going to struggle to win them over; they won't vote Tory again, but could they be tempted by Reform? After all, it's these places that are disproportionately affected by low-skilled immigration and Reform offer a simplistic but very clear proposition.

The 'red wall' wasn't metropolitan though. It means the northern towns that have historically voted labour. It crumbled in the last election due to worries that the Labour Party would not follow through with Brexit.

Will it be built again in this election ? I bet quite a bit will, but not all.

The issues that led to the “Red Wall” deserting Labour haven’t gone away, many of those that voted Tory still have the same values they did in 2016 and 2019

To assume they will blithely just revert to Labour is naive

They have zero in common with Starmer and his liberal progressive metropolitan Labour Party and people in the Westminster bubble just can’t see that

In recent days I’ve spoken to a good few people, all of whom are totally sick of both the Tories send Labour and are saying they are voting reform, up here in the Red Wall and from what I can see it isn’t a red wall at all

From what I can Labour are getting abandoned on two sides, the white working class to reform and the Asian vote to pro Palestine Muslim independent candidates

It used to be you could pin a red rosette on a donkey and it would get elected I’m not so sure of that now

I think we might be in for a shock once the results start coming in on election night

[EmBe]

Gary C said:

EmBe said:

I also wonder about the 'red wall', I suspect any of them could care less about issues like gender and net zero so a metropolitan Labour party are going to struggle to win them over; they won't vote Tory again, but could they be tempted by Reform? After all, it's these places that are disproportionately affected by low-skilled immigration and Reform offer a simplistic but very clear proposition.

The 'red wall' wasn't metropolitan though. It means the northern towns that have historically voted labour. It crumbled in the last election due to worries that the Labour Party would not follow through with Brexit.

That's my point. I ought to know where and what the 'red wall' is, I live close to it.....

Gary C said:

Will it be built again in this election ? I bet quite a bit will, but not all.

I have my doubts. The concerns of a London dwelling liberal are not the same as someone in a former pit village in Co. Durham - the issues that caused them to defect to the Tories are still there, and getting worse. Labour cannot rely on these people just trotting back to them 'lesson learned'.... Reform will do well in those areas I suspect.

[Gary C]

EmBe said:

Gary C said:

EmBe said:

I also wonder about the 'red wall', I suspect any of them could care less about issues like gender and net zero so a metropolitan Labour party are going to struggle to win them over; they won't vote Tory again, but could they be tempted by Reform? After all, it's these places that are disproportionately affected by low-skilled immigration and Reform offer a simplistic but very clear proposition.

The 'red wall' wasn't metropolitan though. It means the northern towns that have historically voted labour. It crumbled in the last election due to worries that the Labour Party would not follow through with Brexit.

That's my point. I ought to know where and what the 'red wall' is, I live close to it.....

Gary C said:

Will it be built again in this election ? I bet quite a bit will, but not all.

I have my doubts. The concerns of a London dwelling liberal are not the same as someone in a former pit village in Co. Durham - the issues that caused them to defect to the Tories are still there, and getting worse. Labour cannot rely on these people just trotting back to them 'lesson learned'.... Reform will do well in those areas I suspect.

Oh, yes. Re-read your post and I get what you meant

(Northern person here too )

[Gary C]

Earthdweller said:

The issues that led to the “Red Wall” deserting Labour haven’t gone away, many of those that voted Tory still have the same values they did in 2016 and 2019

To assume they will blithely just revert to Labour is naive

I dont think I am 'blithely' assuming anything.

Certainly our 'northern town' will be Labour (96% prediction of Labour winning) and there will be many that will too but as I said, not all.

[MC Bodge]

EmBe said:

I think the problem is that none of the parties have policies that really match what a lot of people want

What would that be then? The NP&E manifesto?

Free beer and pubs for men only?
Perfect NHS?
Perfect public services?
Beatings for poor people?
Zero taxes?
No parking restrictions (for them only)?
No speed limits (for them)?
Special PH lanes on motorways?
No cycling?
Removal of all emissions legislation?
Smoking allowed everywhere?
Bringing back the good old days (not the bad bits)?
"Common sense"?
Some sort of expulsion system for undesirables (arbitrarily based on skin colour, family/cultural background, "woke" views?)?
Special privileges for white, able-bodied, straight men?

[Sway]

I'd go for strong support for SMEs, including if appropriate government lending routes.

Strong incentives for innovation and productivity improvements.

Grown up review (Royal commissions?) to properly define and cost various significant parts of public spending - and make clear proposals for service levels rooted in tax impacts (plus/minus), and put them to the vote. Health, education, council services, etc.

Seek to distribute taxation more evenly, as per the lauded Scandis, so that everyone is 'doing their bit'. Look at ways of balancing taxation on capital versus income.

Anyone suggesting those sorts of things would get my support.

[JagLover]

MC Bodge said:

What would that be then? The NP&E manifesto?

Free beer and pubs for men only?

Surely the best pubs have girls who have had too much to drink dancing on the tables?

[Kermit power]

S600BSB said:

Mr Penguin said:

I don't really like these things because they ignore many aspects of why you would vote for a party but I took an isidewith quiz and got

90% Reform
87% Reclaim
84% Conservative
81% UKIP
44% SDP
41% Lib Dem

90% reform - bloody hell. Born in the ‘50s?

If you think that's bad, check out Laurence Fox and assorted other mentalists on 87%!

[oyster]

Earthdweller said:

Gary C said:

EmBe said:

I also wonder about the 'red wall', I suspect any of them could care less about issues like gender and net zero so a metropolitan Labour party are going to struggle to win them over; they won't vote Tory again, but could they be tempted by Reform? After all, it's these places that are disproportionately affected by low-skilled immigration and Reform offer a simplistic but very clear proposition.

The 'red wall' wasn't metropolitan though. It means the northern towns that have historically voted labour. It crumbled in the last election due to worries that the Labour Party would not follow through with Brexit.

Will it be built again in this election ? I bet quite a bit will, but not all.

The issues that led to the “Red Wall” deserting Labour haven’t gone away, many of those that voted Tory still have the same values they did in 2016 and 2019

To assume they will blithely just revert to Labour is naive

They have zero in common with Starmer and his liberal progressive metropolitan Labour Party and people in the Westminster bubble just can’t see that

In recent days I’ve spoken to a good few people, all of whom are totally sick of both the Tories send Labour and are saying they are voting reform, up here in the Red Wall and from what I can see it isn’t a red wall at all

From what I can Labour are getting abandoned on two sides, the white working class to reform and the Asian vote to pro Palestine Muslim independent candidates

It used to be you could pin a red rosette on a donkey and it would get elected I’m not so sure of that now

I think we might be in for a shock once the results start coming in on election night

With FPTP it doesn't matter.

Labour might poll even less than they did in 2019 in some of these seats and still win them back - IF the Tory class of 2019 move a bit to Reform.

[EmBe]

oyster said:

Earthdweller said:

Gary C said:

EmBe said:

I also wonder about the 'red wall', I suspect any of them could care less about issues like gender and net zero so a metropolitan Labour party are going to struggle to win them over; they won't vote Tory again, but could they be tempted by Reform? After all, it's these places that are disproportionately affected by low-skilled immigration and Reform offer a simplistic but very clear proposition.

The 'red wall' wasn't metropolitan though. It means the northern towns that have historically voted labour. It crumbled in the last election due to worries that the Labour Party would not follow through with Brexit.

Will it be built again in this election ? I bet quite a bit will, but not all.

The issues that led to the “Red Wall” deserting Labour haven’t gone away, many of those that voted Tory still have the same values they did in 2016 and 2019

To assume they will blithely just revert to Labour is naive

They have zero in common with Starmer and his liberal progressive metropolitan Labour Party and people in the Westminster bubble just can’t see that

In recent days I’ve spoken to a good few people, all of whom are totally sick of both the Tories send Labour and are saying they are voting reform, up here in the Red Wall and from what I can see it isn’t a red wall at all

From what I can Labour are getting abandoned on two sides, the white working class to reform and the Asian vote to pro Palestine Muslim independent candidates

It used to be you could pin a red rosette on a donkey and it would get elected I’m not so sure of that now

I think we might be in for a shock once the results start coming in on election night

With FPTP it doesn't matter.

Labour might poll even less than they did in 2019 in some of these seats and still win them back - IF the Tory class of 2019 move a bit to Reform.

It's very doubtful many people in the red wall constituencies will vote Conservative this time - it was a vote lent to 'get Brexit done' as much as anything, if the research is to be believed.

What I'm not convinced about is that they'll revert back to Labour automatically - some will simply stay at home but I wonder how many will vote Reform, who let's not forget are headed by Mr Brexit himself.

Combine this with a number of red wall constituencies that have a majority Muslim vote and an overtly Muslim oriented candidate and Labour might find things harder than they otherwise would.

I think this election could turn out to be as interesting as it is depressing TBH.

[jshell]

LimmerickLad said:

Lotobear said:

tangerine_sedge said:

jshell said:

Problem is the right of centre parties are always attacked, but no-one and I mean no-one asks 'why are they gaining votes?'. SImple question, and should guide any narrative.

This question is asked almost daily on PH, and the answer is simple : They offer a very simple answer to a very complex problem, and play to the baser instincts of a sizeable minority of the electorate who have little understanding of the complexities being discussed.

This sort of response is a perfect encapsulation of why we are where we are

I concur.

We've tried it with those 'who understand the complexities', and it isn't bloody working. They work for themselves, not us and that relationship has to change. So, short of a 'Ceaucescu Moment', I'll hold my nose and vote against the sham Uniparty. EVEN if it's just to register a vote against continuance of the fraud, nepotism and downright shenanigans.

[MC Bodge]

jshell said:

We've tried it with those 'who understand the complexities', and it isn't bloody working. They work for themselves, not us and that relationship has to change. So, short of a 'Ceaucescu Moment', I'll hold my nose and vote against the sham Uniparty. EVEN if it's just to register a vote against continuance of the fraud, nepotism and downright shenanigans.

But voting for Reform/Trump etc. as a protest is like some sort of dirty protest.

"Draining the swamp" in order to fill it with untreated sewage before diving in.

[Kermit power]

Hants PHer said:

EmBe said:

I think the problem is that none of the parties have policies that really match what a lot of people want - I tried the Telegraph one above and gave up because none of the bloody policies were what I agreed should be done.

These tests simply highlight the problem that Westminster does not represent a significant proportion of the electorate and replacing Rishi with Kier is like changing your tie when you've shat your pants. I can completely understand why a lot of people seem to be intending to vote Reform - not because they offer a credible alternative, but that they offer a way to express dissatisfaction with the offerings of the main parties.

Chortle, I like that analogy (my bold) and intend to use it if you don't mind.

I agree that Reform represent, for many voters, a protest vote. I live in a true blue constituency and everyone I know in this area has voted Conservative in previous elections, or so they tell me. Not this time, because they are disgusted with the current Tory government. They don't especially agree with some Reform policies, nor do they like Farage.

Their message to the Tories is this "You could have had almost all of these Reform votes if you'd only behaved ethically and done stuff that worked. Instead, you partied during Covid-19 then gave us Liz Truss and the stupid Rwanda scheme."

That's fine, except what message does it send to the despicable sts in the Tory party who came up with the horrific Rwanda plan if people protest vote for a party for whom the Rwanda plan comes across as mild vanilla foreplay?

[TheLurker]

Kermit power said:

That's fine, except what message does it send to the despicable sts in the Tory party who came up with the horrific Rwanda plan if people protest vote for a party for whom the Rwanda plan comes across as mild vanilla foreplay?

That's making the assumption that people have the same view as you on the Rwanda plan. From what people have said on this thread, there are a number of reasons for not voting for the Conservatives and switching to reform.

It's all relative and the same could be said about the Greens and Labour for example. Personally I think a lot of people will vote for Reform as a protest vote rather than because they actually fully agree with them.

[Heathwood]

S600BSB said:

Mr Penguin said:

I don't really like these things because they ignore many aspects of why you would vote for a party but I took an isidewith quiz and got

90% Reform
87% Reclaim
84% Conservative
81% UKIP
44% SDP
41% Lib Dem

90% reform - bloody hell. Born in the ‘50s?

Yep, I got a similar percentage in favour of the Animal Welfare Party. I’ve never heard of them and am not really an animal lover so probably best to ignore the results from such online quizzes.

[Kermit power]

TheLurker said:

Kermit power said:

That's fine, except what message does it send to the despicable sts in the Tory party who came up with the horrific Rwanda plan if people protest vote for a party for whom the Rwanda plan comes across as mild vanilla foreplay?

That's making the assumption that people have the same view as you on the Rwanda plan. From what people have said on this thread, there are a number of reasons for not voting for the Conservatives and switching to reform.

It's all relative and the same could be said about the Greens and Labour for example. Personally I think a lot of people will vote for Reform as a protest vote rather than because they actually fully agree with them.

I wasn't questioning the notion that people might vote Reform as a protest vote. I was just questioning the notion of voting Reform as a protest vote because you didn't like the Rwanda plan. Unless you dislike it because you think it's not ambitious enough, voting Reform to protest about it doesn't seem to make much sense.

[Hants PHer]

Kermit power said:

That's fine, except what message does it send to the despicable sts in the Tory party who came up with the horrific Rwanda plan if people protest vote for a party for whom the Rwanda plan comes across as mild vanilla foreplay?

The message it sends is this: "Don't muck about with daft ideas like Rwanda which won't work and would make little difference if it did. Come up with something that would actually, you know, work." For the avoidance of doubt, that does not include Starmer's 'smash the gangs' idea; I don't know anyone who thinks that'll work either.

[TheLurker]

Kermit power said:

TheLurker said:

Kermit power said:

That's fine, except what message does it send to the despicable sts in the Tory party who came up with the horrific Rwanda plan if people protest vote for a party for whom the Rwanda plan comes across as mild vanilla foreplay?

That's making the assumption that people have the same view as you on the Rwanda plan. From what people have said on this thread, there are a number of reasons for not voting for the Conservatives and switching to reform.

It's all relative and the same could be said about the Greens and Labour for example. Personally I think a lot of people will vote for Reform as a protest vote rather than because they actually fully agree with them.

I wasn't questioning the notion that people might vote Reform as a protest vote. I was just questioning the notion of voting Reform as a protest vote because you didn't like the Rwanda plan. Unless you dislike it because you think it's not ambitious enough, voting Reform to protest about it doesn't seem to make much sense.

Apologies, I missed your point there, and agree with that.

[Gecko1978]

MC Bodge said:

What would that be then? The NP&E manifesto

Beatings for poor people?

Snip but that one made me laugh. Question is would being poor be Labour definition of not rich I.e under 50k or are we talking abject poverty

[p1stonhead]

Quite an interesting poll.

Because if somewhere as Tory/Reformy as PH is showing such a loss for the Tories, and only about level with Labour for Reform, then they both probably going to do terribly.

Labour being in line with Reform on here is staggering.