Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

[eyebeebe]

Cheib said:

Over 10 years ? I guess the good news is they are actually doing something…..

Shame they didn’t agree to send the Patriot system they were under massive pressure to….could have saved probably hundreds of lives by now. They sent a few missiles instead…..

Headline and first paragraph of the article are a bit confusing. This reads to me like the money will happen this year

“ Spain will provide Ukraine with €1bn in military aid this year after the Spanish prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, met in Madrid to sign an “enormously important”, decade-long defence and security deal.”

[borcy]

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/17951150239471538...

French instructors ready to deploy to Ukraine.

France from being quite slow in the beginning now seems to want to push boundaries faster than many other countries. Looks like macron gets it.

[Bright Halo]

A good summary from Jeremy Bowen, one of the most respected war correspondents.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9xx15pe311o

[borcy]

https://x.com/IAPonomarenko/status/179516300449908...

Very large explosion in Russian held Ukraine.

[BikeBikeBIke]

borcy said:

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/17951150239471538...

French instructors ready to deploy to Ukraine.

France from being quite slow in the beginning now seems to want to push boundaries faster than many other countries. Looks like macron gets it.

The first step of frog boiling. Not much Putin can do about a handful of instructors. Then it's a hundred. Then a couple of thousand. Pretty soon, you can have Western Soldiers taking over thousands of roles in Ukraine.

Whether we actually need to bother with the gradual approach I'm not sure. Probably not.

[TGCOTF-dewey]

borcy said:

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/17951150239471538...

French instructors ready to deploy to Ukraine.

France from being quite slow in the beginning now seems to want to push boundaries faster than many other countries. Looks like macron gets it.

UKSF have been in Ukraine since at least 2022.

I'd not be surprised if US and other SF units are too.

So France sending instructors now isn't that boundary pushing. Fair play to them though.

[pingu393]

BikeBikeBIke said:

borcy said:

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/17951150239471538...

French instructors ready to deploy to Ukraine.

France from being quite slow in the beginning now seems to want to push boundaries faster than many other countries. Looks like macron gets it.

The first step of frog boiling. Not much Putin can do about a handful of instructors. Then it's a hundred. Then a couple of thousand. Pretty soon, you can have Western Soldiers taking over thousands of roles in Ukraine.

Whether we actually need to bother with the gradual approach I'm not sure. Probably not.

It sounds more like it's the frogs doing the boiling .

[Cheib]

pingu393 said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

borcy said:

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/17951150239471538...

French instructors ready to deploy to Ukraine.

France from being quite slow in the beginning now seems to want to push boundaries faster than many other countries. Looks like macron gets it.

The first step of frog boiling. Not much Putin can do about a handful of instructors. Then it's a hundred. Then a couple of thousand. Pretty soon, you can have Western Soldiers taking over thousands of roles in Ukraine.

Whether we actually need to bother with the gradual approach I'm not sure. Probably not.

It sounds more like it's the frogs doing the boiling .

I’ve heard a few people on Podcasts say that there are already military advisers/trainers from NATO countries already in Ukraine. Teh fact the French are going public with it is great.

I think one of the reasons the French are taking a more proactive approach is that Macron was trying to act as a peace negotiator at the start of this….in direct contact with Putin etc. Not a great piece of judgment……

Reputation to repair/Legacy to protect (which is apparently something politicians care about)

[Digga]

Cheib said:

pingu393 said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

borcy said:

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/17951150239471538...

French instructors ready to deploy to Ukraine.

France from being quite slow in the beginning now seems to want to push boundaries faster than many other countries. Looks like macron gets it.

The first step of frog boiling. Not much Putin can do about a handful of instructors. Then it's a hundred. Then a couple of thousand. Pretty soon, you can have Western Soldiers taking over thousands of roles in Ukraine.

Whether we actually need to bother with the gradual approach I'm not sure. Probably not.

It sounds more like it's the frogs doing the boiling .

I’ve heard a few people on Podcasts say that there are already military advisers/trainers from NATO countries already in Ukraine. Teh fact the French are going public with it is great.

I think one of the reasons the French are taking a more proactive approach is that Macron was trying to act as a peace negotiator at the start of this….in direct contact with Putin etc. Not a great piece of judgment……

Reputation to repair/Legacy to protect (which is apparently something politicians care about)

Perhaps also that Putin's ignorance, intransigence, dishonesty and misanthropy have set firm Macron's resolve to commit?

[isaldiri]

Macron is also very good at making grandiose statements he has no intention of backing up with actual action - see what the french have actually done compared to the germans vs what they have been saying....

[GT03ROB]

Cheib said:

I think one of the reasons the French are taking a more proactive approach is that Macron was trying to act as a peace negotiator at the start of this….in direct contact with Putin etc. Not a great piece of judgment……

The French are peeved about Russia kicking them out of their African colonies, which has been happening rather a lot recently.

"somebody" is also rabble rousing in New Caledonia.

[BikeBikeBIke]

isaldiri said:

Macron is also very good at making grandiose statements he has no intention of backing up with actual action - see what the french have actually done compared to the germans vs what they have been saying....

This is a case where grandiose statements is exactly what's required. If they publically send even two troops as advisors that's the start of the floodgates.

Even if they sent none it keeps Putin guessing and might encourage other nations to publically do the same.

If everyone had made grandiose statements over winter 21/22 Putin might have realised he was biting off more than he could chew and not bothered.

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Tuesday 28th May 17:20

[BikeBikeBIke]

Nobody wants Russian Gas.

Europe are buying our gas elsewhere and China don't want to make the same mistake as Europe and become dependant on Russian gas.

Buy our gas so we can invade you and blackmail you put of fighting back is not a good marketing strategy.


https://x.com/AgatheDemarais/status/17953492862861...

[RichFN2]

BikeBikeBIke said:

isaldiri said:

Macron is also very good at making grandiose statements he has no intention of backing up with actual action - see what the french have actually done compared to the germans vs what they have been saying....

This is a case where grandiose statements is exactly what's required. If they publically send even two troops as advisors that's the start of the floodgates.

Even if they sent none it keeps Putin guessing and might encourage other nations to publically do the same.

If everyone had made grandiose statements over winter 21/22 Putin might have realised he was biting off more than he could chew and not bothered.

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Tuesday 28th May 17:20

I have to agree, it's actions like this that trigger other countries to do the same. Look at when we provided tanks, it was only something like 12 but we were the 1st to do so, that then triggered a steady supply of leopard 1 & 2 tanks, a collection of old soviet tanks and a few Abrams.

Similar situation with the F16's, once 1 country publicly committed to supplying them others have followed. The latest is Belgium committing to supplying 30.

[Talksteer]

TGCOTF-dewey said:

borcy said:

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/17951150239471538...

French instructors ready to deploy to Ukraine.

France from being quite slow in the beginning now seems to want to push boundaries faster than many other countries. Looks like macron gets it.

UKSF have been in Ukraine since at least 2022.

I'd not be surprised if US and other SF units are too.

So France sending instructors now isn't that boundary pushing. Fair play to them though.

We don't know it's SF and in fact I would doubt that is who you'd send.

The Ukrainians have plenty of well trained and motivated soldiers and the sort of missions you'd send SF on are the sort of missions where there is a good chance of them being captured or killed.

Instead what you send is staff officers and technical experts. They observe and advise at higher echelon level then they report back to the UK how tactics and operations are evolving which weapons are effective what new capabilities they need.

They can then reach back into the UK to get those capabilities and information. It is likely that a fair amount of intelligence analysis and mission planning is being done back in the UK for Ukraine's benefit again it's useful to have some liaison people on the ground to help with that.

[TGCOTF-dewey]

Talksteer said:

We don't know it's SF and in fact I would doubt that is who you'd send.

The Ukrainians have plenty of well trained and motivated soldiers and the sort of missions you'd send SF on are the sort of missions where there is a good chance of them being captured or killed.

Instead what you send is staff officers and technical experts. They observe and advise at higher echelon level then they report back to the UK how tactics and operations are evolving which weapons are effective what new capabilities they need.

They can then reach back into the UK to get those capabilities and information. It is likely that a fair amount of intelligence analysis and mission planning is being done back in the UK for Ukraine's benefit again it's useful to have some liaison people on the ground to help with that.

There are many reports in the press going back to 2021 citing SF operating in training and intelligence gathering roles within Ukraine.

e.g. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/apr/11/up...

[BikeBikeBIke]

Phew,another nuclear threat. I was getting worried. 3 days with no nuclear threat was stressing me out.

https://x.com/francis_scarr/status/179545010044714...

Love the comments that the population of Russia is densely focused in two cities.

[hidetheelephants]

TGCOTF-dewey said:

There are many reports in the press going back to 2021 citing SF operating in training and intelligence gathering roles within Ukraine.

e.g. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/apr/11/up...

Doubtless it was part of or in parallel to Operation Orbital, UK SF are highly regarded and no doubt they learnt from the ukrainians as well as training them, there's nothing like actually fighting an enemy for revealing what works and what doesn't.

[Captain Obvious]

Talksteer said:

We don't know it's SF and in fact I would doubt that is who you'd send.

The Ukrainians have plenty of well trained and motivated soldiers and the sort of missions you'd send SF on are the sort of missions where there is a good chance of them being captured or killed.

Instead what you send is staff officers and technical experts. They observe and advise at higher echelon level then they report back to the UK how tactics and operations are evolving which weapons are effective what new capabilities they need.

They can then reach back into the UK to get those capabilities and information. It is likely that a fair amount of intelligence analysis and mission planning is being done back in the UK for Ukraine's benefit again it's useful to have some liaison people on the ground to help with that.

First of all they've suffered alot of losses holding back the flood gates. They need replacing, secondly, you're actually accurate as to what kind of British SF forces are on the ground in Ukraine. They're not all door kickers. There is a mix, it was recently confirmed by a US general accidentally who mentioned he'd observed the successes of how the UK SF teams in Ukraine are working really well and he wanted to adopt the same structure in US units...

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2024/05/14/ihqb-m...

A piece headlined, “US special operations, learning from war in Ukraine, have to do more with less”, raised proposals by US Army Special Operations Command to increase the size of its Green Beret teams—usually about 12 members—to bring in people with more specialized and technical abilities.

Forbes comments, “A 12-person detachment might be upgunned,’” to include an Air Force pilot, Navy ship driver, cryptologist or cyber expert. In the key passage he explains how:

“The United States is ‘taking a lot of lessons learned out of the experience in Ukraine, mostly through the eyes of our U.K. special operations partners, who not only have done that in their formations, but they’ve also learned very quickly that they needed other elements of their joint force.”

AP’s report continues, “As an example, he [Fenton] said British commandos needed Royal Air Force pilots to help advise on drone operations and Royal Navy teammates ‘to help them understand, more than a SOF (special operations forces) teammate could, the way a ship in the Black Sea navigates.’”

[J4CKO]

BikeBikeBIke said:

Phew,another nuclear threat. I was getting worried. 3 days with no nuclear threat was stressing me out.

https://x.com/francis_scarr/status/179545010044714...

Love the comments that the population of Russia is densely focused in two cities.

I see one very dense thing in those photos, some very depleted Putonium.