Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

[pingu393]

If UKR had nuclear weapons, what difference do you think it would have made?

RUS take over Crimea by stealth - UKR nukes Moscow - I don't think so.

RUS roll some tanks into Donensk "to protect the population" - UKR nukes Moscow - I don't think so.

Even the attack in Feb 2022 would not have resulted in Moscow being nuked. UKR may have nuked the attacking forces inside Ukraine, but probably not, as the escalation would have gone global.

ICBM attack is MAD, but I'm not convinced that having nukes would have prevented convenional attack, unless US/NATO had stated it would be a reason to defend UKR to prevent the nukes falling into Russian hands.

[BikeBikeBIke]

TheJimi said:

Nope, I think the US would act independently of anything the UN Security Council came up with - possibly with a coalition, but they'd act nonetheless.

Sending a message to Russia that they can use nuclear weapons is a complete non starter.

And it would be for China too.

Massive countries with massive conventional forces don't want the Nuclear Genie out of the bottle. China included.

In fact, Russia don't. The last thing they want is Chechnia or Georgia wiping out Moscow.

[BikeBikeBIke]

pingu393 said:

If UKR had nuclear weapons, what difference do you think it would have made?

RUS take over Crimea by stealth - UKR nukes Moscow - I don't think so.

RUS roll some tanks into Donensk "to protect the population" - UKR nukes Moscow - I don't think so.

Even the attack in Feb 2022 would not have resulted in Moscow being nuked. UKR may have nuked the attacking forces inside Ukraine, but probably not, as the escalation would have gone global.

ICBM attack is MAD, but I'm not convinced that having nukes would have prevented convenional attack, unless US/NATO had stated it would be a reason to defend UKR to prevent the nukes falling into Russian hands.

If Putin thought his life was over he'd use nukes.

He thinks everyone thinks like him.

So he wouldn't have sent troops into Kiev to kill Zelensky, because he would expect to get a Nuke back. Ergo no war in Ukraine. Ditto Xi. Because they would, they think everyone else would. So it works as a deterant.

[isaldiri]

TheJimi said:

Nope, I think the US would act independently of anything the UN Security Council came up with - possibly with a coalition, but they'd act nonetheless.

Sending a message to Russia that they can use nuclear weapons is a complete non starter.

Don’t think it’s quite so clearcut. It would depend on what kind of nuclear weapon being used. A strategic attack on say Kiev that wiped out lots of civilians would be a very different thing from a low yield tactical nuclear weapon being used in the donbas.

[TheJimi]

Nah, I strongly suspect it is that clear cut.

It's in no-one's interest to allow nuclear weapon use to go unchecked. When we talk about red lines, nuclear weapon use is the definitive red line.

[otherman]

BikeBikeBIke said:

If Putin thought his life was over he'd use nukes.

If that were the case, then we'd only have a few years left.

[J4CKO]

otherman said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

If Putin thought his life was over he'd use nukes.

If that were the case, then we'd only have a few years left.

We have to rely on the rest of Russia not wanting to incur a returned favour based on one mental, ex KGB grunt that somehow ended up with complete autocratic power.

Sorry Vlad, that ain’t happening, you are now on the “End of life pathway”, not like we have in the UK, it involves a window, and a pathway below.

Need to rely on the rest of the Russian brass/population not wanting to go down with this s ship, he just know that ? Armageddon or throw a pensioner out of the 6th floor, it’s a no brainer, well one brain, spilling out between the cracks.

Who wants to be part of this mentalists personal swan song ? I know Russians are wired differently but most down want a flash and to be vaporised, no more opportunities for being mean, extorting money, taking over someone’s business l, being obnoxious on holiday etc.

[isaldiri]

TheJimi said:

Nah, I strongly suspect it is that clear cut.

It's in no-one's interest to allow nuclear weapon use to go unchecked. When we talk about red lines, nuclear weapon use is the definitive red line.

Well, i still think your certainty is somewhat misplaced but unless it's put to the test we'll never find out I suppose....

[TheJimi]

Indeed, let's hope our disagreement remains in limbo!

[BikeBikeBIke]

otherman said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

If Putin thought his life was over he'd use nukes.

If that were the case, then we'd only have a few years left.

Do you think Hitler would have used strategic Nukes in a big way when Russia got to Berlin? I do. He wouldn't have hesitated, because he was gonna die anyway he'd have been happy to take everyone else out too.

In the same way if the tanks were coming for Putin he'd use nukes in a heartbeat. (IMHO.)

And therefore Putin thinks Zelensky would have let lose the nukes if Kiev was threatened because Putin thinks western civilised leaders think like him. (IMHO.)

Ergo, nukes would have detered Putin from invading Ukraine. QED.

[Cheib]

TheJimi said:

cliffords said:

trickywoo said:

Cheib said:

Can’t remember who it was that was interviewed but the expected response would be the unit that deployed the Nuclear missile would be destroyed with conventional

That is total fantasy. Nobody is interdicting a nuclear site within Russia. If it was mobile they wouldn’t find it.

Massive conventional strike on Russian equipment in Ukraine is highly likely. Doesn’t need to be killing 500k troops just the high end hardware.

The response would be a meeting of the security council followed by a vote where the action would be condemned by all who voted and some would choose not to vote. Nothing else would happen.

Nope, I think the US would act independently of anything the UN Security Council came up with - possibly with a coalition, but they'd act nonetheless.

Sending a message to Russia that they can use nuclear weapons is a complete non starter.

Yup. The US would just act….

Having told the Russians they would retaliate they can’t let their bluff be called.

[cliffords]

Cheib said:

TheJimi said:

cliffords said:

trickywoo said:

Cheib said:

Can’t remember who it was that was interviewed but the expected response would be the unit that deployed the Nuclear missile would be destroyed with conventional

That is total fantasy. Nobody is interdicting a nuclear site within Russia. If it was mobile they wouldn’t find it.

Massive conventional strike on Russian equipment in Ukraine is highly likely. Doesn’t need to be killing 500k troops just the high end hardware.

The response would be a meeting of the security council followed by a vote where the action would be condemned by all who voted and some would choose not to vote. Nothing else would happen.

Nope, I think the US would act independently of anything the UN Security Council came up with - possibly with a coalition, but they'd act nonetheless.

Sending a message to Russia that they can use nuclear weapons is a complete non starter.

Yup. The US would just act….

Having told the Russians they would retaliate they can’t let their bluff be called.

Trump would not act. Perhaps what Putin is waiting for ?

[Cheib]

cliffords said:

Trump would not act. Perhaps what Putin is waiting for ?

It’s hard to know what Trump will do week to week.

Mike Johnson went to see Trump at Mar a Lago the week before he got the aid bill through Congress so I assume Trump had his say in that. I think Trump’s issue with NATO has been around % GDP spending which we know he was absolutely right about. Would he order retalliation against Russia ? Don’t know but not acting is not exactly “MAGA”

I’d say whoever is in the White House would be extremely mindful about what they do or don’t do in terms of sending message to China about US support of Taiwan.

What the Trump/Putin relationship is really like is anyone’s guess.

[paua]

Cheib said:

It’s hard to know what Trump will do week to week.

Mike Johnson went to see Trump at Mar a Lago the week before he got the aid bill through Congress so I assume Trump had his say in that. I think Trump’s issue with NATO has been around % GDP spending which we know he was absolutely right about. Would he order retalliation against Russia ? Don’t know but not acting is not exactly “MAGA”

I’d say whoever is in the White House would be extremely mindful about what they do or don’t do in terms of sending message to China about US support of Taiwan.

What the Trump/Putin relationship is really like is anyone’s guess.

Trump has a few dodgy kopecks in his pocket & a bit of sludge smeared round his lips & tongue. It's not a Colgate smile.

[BikeBikeBIke]

Bathroom_Security said:

Joe Bloggs video on the driving factors behind Putin considering calling it a day.

Heard it all before at this stage, though.

Anders Puck explaining why he thinks the ceasfire gossip is a trick.

https://youtu.be/OZ-R1WVGwQg?si=3X7tNC8mRPzDf-hB

I'm 100pc behind Puck. I can see all kinds of reasons why Putin would send vague false signals and none why he'd want a ceasefire right now.

Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Monday 27th May 09:26

[J4CKO]

Have learnt over the last few years to not trust a word from Russia, whatever Putin wants it will be so they can regroup, however tempting a ceasefire sounds they need to keep going, or is that what he wants ?

[Wayoftheflower]

This week's Perun on Kharkiv, ammo and material shortages, Russian promotions and demotions and western target restrictions.

Note at 16:30 that large Russian repository for towed artillery appears to have been 60-80% depleted. Later on in the video is other evidence that at least some of the ground forces directed at the Kharkiv front are using a hodgepodge Podge of systems.

Link
https://youtu.be/829nvzjbPPA?feature=shared

[borcy]

https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1794968131019952491


Very long range drone strike

[macron]

Spain ponies up a billion. Brilliant.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may...

Viva España!

[Cheib]

macron said:

Spain ponies up a billion. Brilliant.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may...

Viva España!

Over 10 years ? I guess the good news is they are actually doing something…..

Shame they didn’t agree to send the Patriot system they were under massive pressure to….could have saved probably hundreds of lives by now. They sent a few missiles instead…..