Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 4)
Discussion
PurplePangolin said:
Belgium’s ability to export more than the UK “may” be assisted by the fact it is a net recipient of EU funding?
Do you have any evidence to support this suggestion?You may wish to look at where the net contributions that Belgium receives actually go (e.g., mostly in funding the operation of EU institutions and their staff in the country) before making these sorts of suggestions.
Edited by HM-2 on Wednesday 25th January 22:07
HM-2 said:
PurplePangolin said:
Belgium’s ability to export more than the UK “may” be assisted by the fact it is a net recipient of EU funding?
Do you have any evidence to support this suggestion?You may wish to look at where the net contributions that Belgium receives actually go (e.g., mostly in funding the operation of EU institutions and their staff in the country) before making these sorts of suggestions.
Edited by HM-2 on Wednesday 25th January 22:07
HM-2 said:
crankedup5 said:
Yes it’s obvious that when you have simple questions asked of your position you appear to mysteriously develop reading and comprehension issues.
What "reading comprehension issues"? If you can't even explain your own posts, what are you doing here?crankedup5 said:
It really is a very simple train of discussion posed.
Is it? I made the point that Belgium currently seems to export more than the UK, despite having circa 1/5 the population.
PurplePangolin posted some absurd straw man about the size of state's EU contributions.
I pointed out that the UK and Belgian economy are different sizes.
What's your contention here? What point are you trying to make? It's completely lost on me, certainly hasn't got any relevance to the initial point I was making. But that's no surprise given that almost everything you post borders on the incoherent.
As for your following insults, for somebody who cannot understand what is being asked of you, well that’s some irony.
HM-2 said:
crankedup5 said:
Just get this out of the way first, brexit was partially driven by the oversupply of cheap labour
The same cheap labour we now have a significant deficit in due to brexit? Have you ever looked at the data around where the impact of cheap labour importations actually falls? PurplePangolin said:
I don’t think it’s an unreasonable suggestion
You'd know it was an "unreasonable suggestion" with five minutes due diligence. Goes to show how much thought you put into your posts, though, doesn't it? crankedup5 said:
Simple enough, if the two economies that you speak of are different sizes, how in practice does that have an effect upon the contributions required by the EU.
Is this a statement or a question? It's phrased like the latter, but terminated like the former. The funding mechanism for the EU is based on national income; the larger an economy is, the more it pays. That fact is well understood, but I still fail to see the relevance to anything I've said or where this meandering diversion is supposed to lead. crankedup5 said:
HM-2 said:
crankedup5 said:
Just get this out of the way first, brexit was partially driven by the oversupply of cheap labour
The same cheap labour we now have a significant deficit in due to brexit? Have you ever looked at the data around where the impact of cheap labour importations actually falls? Was it the false equivalence on the previous page, where you pointed out that other developed economies have labour shortages? Yes, they do...but we aren't talking about high skilled and specialist labour (where those key structural labour shortages are most pressing elsewhere), we're specifically talking about low-skilled labour.
Edited by HM-2 on Wednesday 25th January 22:53
HM-2 said:
PurplePangolin said:
I don’t think it’s an unreasonable suggestion
You'd know it was an "unreasonable suggestion" with five minutes due diligence. Goes to show how much thought you put into your posts, though, doesn't it? crankedup5 said:
Simple enough, if the two economies that you speak of are different sizes, how in practice does that have an effect upon the contributions required by the EU.
Is this a statement or a question? It's phrased like the latter, but terminated like the former. The funding mechanism for the EU is based on national income; the larger an economy is, the more it pays. That fact is well understood, but I still fail to see the relevance to anything I've said or where this meandering diversion is supposed to lead. crankedup5 said:
HM-2 said:
crankedup5 said:
Just get this out of the way first, brexit was partially driven by the oversupply of cheap labour
The same cheap labour we now have a significant deficit in due to brexit? Have you ever looked at the data around where the impact of cheap labour importations actually falls? Was it the false equivalence on the previous page, where you pointed out that other developed economies have labour shortages? Yes, they do...but we aren't talking about high skilled and specialist labour (where those key structural labour shortages are most pressing elsewhere), we're specifically talking about low-skilled labour.
Edited by HM-2 on Wednesday 25th January 22:53
‘Is this a question or a statement’ you have a habit of dragging out this diversion, it’s very tiresome.
I will make a judgement that you are unable to justify your earlier statement ‘due to brexit’ . It’s your statement, justify it.
Pleased to read that you acknowledge that it is low skilled immigrant labour, this was a problem which led to low wage suppression being one of the reasons for our withdrawal from the EU.
The higher skill sets we seek are identified within our new work visa scheme.
crankedup5 said:
I will make a judgement that you are unable to justify your earlier statement ‘due to brexit’ .
You can make that judgement all you like, but it simply proves that you're ignoring empirical reality. There are systemic shortages of low skilled labour in multiple areas (for example, agriculture) as a direct result of Brexit. There are also systemic shortages in more skilled labour (particularly in care and nursing); shortages in similar sectors do absolutely exist elsewhere but those in Britain are significantly worse for the most part. crankedup5 said:
Pleased to read that you acknowledge that it is low skilled immigrant labour
Hang on, now you're contradicting yourself. "There isn't a deficit in labour due to Brexit, but the deficit in labour is of low skilled EU labour and so that's okay"?crankedup5 said:
this was a problem which led to low wage suppression being one of the reasons for our withdrawal from the EU.
I don't think either this claim, or the purported consequence, stand up to scrutiny here. The evidence for widespread availability of low skilled labour actually leading to wage suppression is rather lacking. Notwithstanding the fact the same wage suppression amongst the low skilled can be seen within countries that don't have a surfeit of cheap imported labour, direct causal factors seem more related to policy and market (rather than job market) factors. And where modelled studies have observed a depressing effect on wages due to low skilled immigrant labour, this has exclusively...impacted other low skilled immigrant labour.I also don't recall "wage suppression" being an issue that substantively contributed to the Brexit vote.
crankedup5 said:
The higher skill sets we seek are identified within our new work visa scheme.
A complex, diversified economy cannot exist in highly skilled labour alone. Putting aside the question of whether the current vida scheme is remotely fit for purpose (as someone whose currently fighting to hire highly skilled European labour into a high tech sector that's supposed to be a government priority, I'd argue it's not), your response here rather misses the point being made. turbobloke said:
legzr1 said:
turbobloke said:
Have you consumed any knowledge and understanding on research methodologies and modelling techniques?
Don't bother, just look at the risible, utterly miles away predictions from economists over the past two decades.
Whether it's one country's interest base rate, or global gdp, predictions are absolute horse manure. Too many unpredictable variables are in play, including remarkably daft policymaking from remarkably daft politicians, global pandemics, wars, etc, which impact on economics nationally and internationally, such events cannot be predicted.
That's before methodology comes in, shoving gravity modelling where it doesn't belong, for example, or excluding positive influences because you're employed by the gov't and the PM or Chancellor told you to do that.
With respect to anyone identifying themselves with such credulous acceptance, if people knew these failures keep repeating, what makes them forget, and if they don't know, what makes them so credulous as to be in awe when predictions are serialy duff? Rhetorical question.
I’m wondering which statistician you used to compile the figures you used earlier when comparing your post count in this thread with others…Don't bother, just look at the risible, utterly miles away predictions from economists over the past two decades.
Whether it's one country's interest base rate, or global gdp, predictions are absolute horse manure. Too many unpredictable variables are in play, including remarkably daft policymaking from remarkably daft politicians, global pandemics, wars, etc, which impact on economics nationally and internationally, such events cannot be predicted.
That's before methodology comes in, shoving gravity modelling where it doesn't belong, for example, or excluding positive influences because you're employed by the gov't and the PM or Chancellor told you to do that.
With respect to anyone identifying themselves with such credulous acceptance, if people knew these failures keep repeating, what makes them forget, and if they don't know, what makes them so credulous as to be in awe when predictions are serialy duff? Rhetorical question.
And round and round we go.
Amateurish said:
German figures are almost the same it is almost like something else is going on...https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/car-productio...
Vanden Saab said:
German figures are almost the same
Er, no they're not.
UK car production levels are lower than at the height of Covid. The overall trend for German car production is a slight decline, but in the UK it's fallen off a cliff edge and 2022 is considerably less than half where it was in 2016.
Edited by HM-2 on Thursday 26th January 10:46
CloudStuff said:
turbobloke said:
legzr1 said:
turbobloke said:
Have you consumed any knowledge and understanding on research methodologies and modelling techniques?
Don't bother, just look at the risible, utterly miles away predictions from economists over the past two decades.
Whether it's one country's interest base rate, or global gdp, predictions are absolute horse manure. Too many unpredictable variables are in play, including remarkably daft policymaking from remarkably daft politicians, global pandemics, wars, etc, which impact on economics nationally and internationally, such events cannot be predicted.
That's before methodology comes in, shoving gravity modelling where it doesn't belong, for example, or excluding positive influences because you're employed by the gov't and the PM or Chancellor told you to do that.
With respect to anyone identifying themselves with such credulous acceptance, if people knew these failures keep repeating, what makes them forget, and if they don't know, what makes them so credulous as to be in awe when predictions are serialy duff? Rhetorical question.
I’m wondering which statistician you used to compile the figures you used earlier when comparing your post count in this thread with others…Don't bother, just look at the risible, utterly miles away predictions from economists over the past two decades.
Whether it's one country's interest base rate, or global gdp, predictions are absolute horse manure. Too many unpredictable variables are in play, including remarkably daft policymaking from remarkably daft politicians, global pandemics, wars, etc, which impact on economics nationally and internationally, such events cannot be predicted.
That's before methodology comes in, shoving gravity modelling where it doesn't belong, for example, or excluding positive influences because you're employed by the gov't and the PM or Chancellor told you to do that.
With respect to anyone identifying themselves with such credulous acceptance, if people knew these failures keep repeating, what makes them forget, and if they don't know, what makes them so credulous as to be in awe when predictions are serialy duff? Rhetorical question.
And round and round we go.
And around and around we go.
This will upset some anti brexit members, ITV’s ‘Peston’ show last night featured the infamous graph which indicates a growing gap in those satisfied with our progress with brexit, and those not.
Peston was gleefully asking his guests when a major political party was going to put a return to EU within its manifesto. He was less pleased with the response from his Labour and Conservative representatives, they laughed at his notion of any EU return but did add ‘not for many years, if at all’.
Peston was gleefully asking his guests when a major political party was going to put a return to EU within its manifesto. He was less pleased with the response from his Labour and Conservative representatives, they laughed at his notion of any EU return but did add ‘not for many years, if at all’.
Mortarboard said:
Of course, when an unending supply of cheap labour is available then when that supply ends its obvious what the result will be. If employers now want cheap labour they need to make adjustments to their business models.
Mortarboard said:
Vanden Saab said:
Mortarboard said:
link said:
However, Brexit is by no means the only reason for the shortages, and the pandemic, international sector-specific labour shortages, and an increase in early retirement have been more important factors.
Oh, are you sure?
link said:
Professor Chris Forde of Leeds University, said: “The reasons for the current UK labour shortages are complex. While there is some evidence that the end of free movement has contributed to shortages in some areas of the UK labour market, it is by no means the only driver. In fact, recruiting difficulties are not unique to the UK and several other countries have experienced high vacancy rates post-pandemic.”
Hmmmmmlink said:
Early evidence suggests that some employers who used to rely on EU workers and are now ineligible to recruit from overseas are starting to adjust—for example, by reducing their need for workers by turning to automation or simply producing less. Some employers have also improved pay packages, but at least so far there is no evidence that the end of free movement has increased wages across the board
Lets call that a full house of things that Brexiteers said would happen...link said:
The end of free movement has exacerbated recruitment issues faced by UK employers, a major new report from ReWAGE and the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford has shown.
Yes, recruitment is hard everywhere (pretty much)Yes, Brexit has made it worse
The two are not exclusive.
And also, to highlight one line of your quote:
link said:
at least so far there is no evidence that the end of free movement has increased wages across the board
So that's Cranked not happy then. He specifically voted leave for that.M.
crankedup5 said:
This will upset some anti brexit members, ITV’s ‘Peston’ show last night featured the infamous graph which indicates a growing gap in those satisfied with our progress with brexit, and those not.
Peston was gleefully asking his guests when a major political party was going to put a return to EU within its manifesto. He was less pleased with the response from his Labour and Conservative representatives, they laughed at his notion of any EU return but did add ‘not for many years, if at all’.
Why should any of us be up set? I cannot remember any remain poster on here advocates rejoining.Peston was gleefully asking his guests when a major political party was going to put a return to EU within its manifesto. He was less pleased with the response from his Labour and Conservative representatives, they laughed at his notion of any EU return but did add ‘not for many years, if at all’.
It's quite obvious the Tory party of brexit buffoons is not going to rejoin. However, in 2 years, at most, they will be out of power and most will be out of work.
The Labour Party know they are going to win so why risk losing votes by making a bold move on the EU. However, when in power they need some wins on the economy and reversing some of the costs of brexit. Will we rejoin no, will we move much closer, by renegotiate of the TCA, maybe even look at EEA membership, I would say very likely.
HM-2 said:
crankedup5 said:
I will make a judgement that you are unable to justify your earlier statement ‘due to brexit’ .
You can make that judgement all you like, but it simply proves that you're ignoring empirical reality. There are systemic shortages of low skilled labour in multiple areas (for example, agriculture) as a direct result of Brexit. There are also systemic shortages in more skilled labour (particularly in care and nursing); shortages in similar sectors do absolutely exist elsewhere but those in Britain are significantly worse for the most part. crankedup5 said:
Pleased to read that you acknowledge that it is low skilled immigrant labour
Hang on, now you're contradicting yourself. "There isn't a deficit in labour due to Brexit, but the deficit in labour is of low skilled EU labour and so that's okay"?crankedup5 said:
this was a problem which led to low wage suppression being one of the reasons for our withdrawal from the EU.
I don't think either this claim, or the purported consequence, stand up to scrutiny here. The evidence for widespread availability of low skilled labour actually leading to wage suppression is rather lacking. Notwithstanding the fact the same wage suppression amongst the low skilled can be seen within countries that don't have a surfeit of cheap imported labour, direct causal factors seem more related to policy and market (rather than job market) factors. And where modelled studies have observed a depressing effect on wages due to low skilled immigrant labour, this has exclusively...impacted other low skilled immigrant labour.I also don't recall "wage suppression" being an issue that substantively contributed to the Brexit vote.
crankedup5 said:
The higher skill sets we seek are identified within our new work visa scheme.
A complex, diversified economy cannot exist in highly skilled labour alone. Putting aside the question of whether the current vida scheme is remotely fit for purpose (as someone whose currently fighting to hire highly skilled European labour into a high tech sector that's supposed to be a government priority, I'd argue it's not), your response here rather misses the point being made. There are systemic labour shortages spread across virtually all advanced economies, is that due to brexit as well? Of course brexit was always going to throw up problems in the short term, we knew this and these are th ‘bumps in the road’.
Evidence shows that some low pay industries are now competing to secure the services of some low pay workers, for example lorry drivers. It’s not only about pay though, it’s about working conditions also.
Because you don’t recall wage suppression being a brexit point doesn’t mean it didn’t exist. Low wage suppression was always one of the more major issues within the brexit debate.
Of course an advanced economy requires a diverse work force, that’s obvious to everyone. The fact that the U.K. is open for business and seeking highly skilled workers is nothing new. What brexit has achieved thus far is to stop FOM which flooded our Country with low skills. Now we have controlled that we are inviting in those workers skills identified as being of benefit to the Country.
Taking back control was the simple message and that is one of the fundamental reasons for brexit.
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